Syrian Civil War: Important Players and Key Implications – A Factsheet

Author(s): Mekki Uludag

Source: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses , Vol. 7, No. 7 (August 2015), pp. 4-10
Published by: International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research
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 Syrian Civil War:
Important Players and Key
Implications – A Factsheet
Mekki Uludag

Years of the Syrian civil war has seen multiple players fighting each other and
competing for influence. The four major players are the Bashar al Assad
government and his allies; the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS);
the Islamic front, including Jabhat al Nusra; and the Kurdish People’s
Protection Units (YPG). The dynamics of the competition among the four key
players and its implication for Syria, is the focus of this article.

Major Players in the Syrian Civil War

The first major player in the Syrian civil war is the ruling coalition led by
Bashar al Assad. Assad is an Alawite, a splinter sect of Shiite Islam. The
Alawites, which make up 10% to 15% of the Syrian population, have been
supporting Assad since the start of the civil war. Druzes are another minority
tribe in Syria that are believed to have been providing significant support in
the form of manpower to Assad until recently when Druze leaders announced
that they would cease support for the Assad regime and protect themselves
against any assault by the rebels (Hassan 2015). Assad is also supported by
Iran, which provided weapons and sent some of its top military personnel
including General Qassim Suleimani, to Syria’s battlegrounds (Filkins 2013).
The Assad regime is also backed by the Lebanese Hezbollah led by Hasan
Nasrallah. The Lebanese Hezbollah provides fighters to Assad, due to a
shared sectorial identity (the fact that Alawites are a sub-sect of the Shiites)
and due to Assad’s support to Hezbollah in the past, especially during the
Israel-Lebanon conflict in 2006.

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 Syrian Civil War: Important Players, Key Implications – A Factsheet – Mekki Uludag

The second major player in the Syrian civil war is

the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS).
“ The flow of thousands
ISIS wants to establish Sharia (Islamic law) in
Syria after having enforced Islamic jurisprudence
of foreign fighters into
in Raqqa which it claims as the capital of the
Islamic State (Aarja 2013). Due to offensives
Syria, mainly through the
carried out by the U.S.-led coalition, ISIS’
advance has been in the doldrums and it is now
porous Turkish border,
in a defensive mode. ISIS has lost some territory
in northern Syria although it still controls
continues to sustain the
important swaths, including the most important
oil reserves in the Deir ez-Zur province of Syria, manpower mostly to
al Raqqah and the ancient city of Palmyra. The
U.S.-led coalition have launched airstrikes Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS.
targeting ISIS positions both in Syria and Iraq,
and the expansion of the group seems very The estimated figure of
difficult for now.
more than 20,000 foreign
The third major player in the civil war is the
Islamic Front, comprising Al Qaeda affiliate fighters in Syria and Iraq
Jabhat al Nusra (JN), as well as Islamic groups
like Liwa al Tawheed (The Unity Brigade), Ahrar reflects the severity of
al Sham (Islamic Movement of the Free Men of
the Levant), Jaysh al Islam (The Army of Islam), the situation. ”
Jund al Aqsa (The Soldiers of al Aqsa) and
Ansar al Sham (The Supporters of Syria). This
new coalition, also known as the Army of However, none of the groups mentioned above
Conquest, have announced that their first goal is are capable of winning the fight. The flow of
to topple Assad, put an end to his regime in thousands of foreign fighters into Syria, mainly
Syria, and replace it with Islamic rule (Vice News through the porous Turkish border, continues to
2015). Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia sustain the manpower mostly to Jabhat al Nusra
reportedly support this front against the Assad and ISIS. The estimated figure of more than
regime which is not aligned with ISIS due to 20,000 foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq
doctrinal differences in their ideologies (Porter (Neumann 2015) reflects the severity of the
2015). The coalition has also captured strategic situation. Nevertheless, the flow of foreign
places in the Idlib province of Syria from the fighters could be of less consequence as they do
Assad Regime. not have weapons or ammunition to make a
visible impact against Bashar al Assad’s
The fourth major player involved in the conflict is stockpile of aircrafts or heavy weapons which are
the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the believed to have been supplied by Iran. Many are
objective of which is to establish self-rule in also being killed by airstrikes by the U.S. and its
Kurdish dominated areas by dividing their allies, including Turkey.
settlements into cantons and ruling them under a
secular regime. YPG claims that this system of When the civil war first erupted in Syria,
democratic autonomy is not only the best eliminating Bashar al Assad and his regime was
solution to Syria but also to the whole of the the top priority for most Western powers
Middle East (Peace in Kurdistan Campaign including the U.S. and Sunni-ruled countries in
2014). It has the support of some Free Syrian the Arab world. Assad was seen as a tyrant who
Army (FSA) elements and Sunni Arabs in persecuted his own people. However, at present,
northern Syria. In July 2015, they captured the the main threat is seen to be ISIS and JN as both
important cities of Tal Abyad, Sere Kaniye and al groups have been responsible for many
-Hasakah from ISIS. This group has the air atrocities, including beheadings of journalists and
support of the U.S.-led coalition which may humanitarian workers, mass killings of civilians,
potentially be a very important game changer in enslavement of women and issuing threats to
the civil war. attack countries that are opposed to them.

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 Syrian Civil War: Important Players, Key Implications – A Factsheet – Mekki Uludag

The U.S.-led coalition and other countries are

particularly worried about their activities and
“ At present, ISIS’
atrocities and have shifted their focus from
removing Assad from power to disrupting first
advance has been
ISIS’ and then JN’s ease of movement in Syria
and eventually destroying the groups altogether
temporarily stalled on
(Tisdall 2015).
two fronts. The first is
Current Situation
due to the U.S.-led
After years of intensive fighting and significant offensives and the
casualties involving both civilians and the
fighters, forcing many to become displaced and second, due to a decline
creating a refugee crisis, there is still no end in
sight to the Syrian conflict. Despite assumptions in the flow of foreign
that Bashar al Assad would not be able to
continue to remain in power for long, the regime fighters as a result of a
continues to maintain control over the most
important parts of Syria (Hurriyet Daily News tightening of security
2012). Alawites have managed to establish a
powerful military and a strong bureaucracy. The measures in countries
official Syrian army appears to be fiercely loyal to
Bashar al Assad, fighting to prevent rebel groups worldwide, especially by
from seizing control of their territory and
resources (Stewart 2015). Turkey. ”
At present, ISIS’ advance has been temporarily
stalled on two fronts. The first is due to the U.S.- much more difficult for ISIS to procure logistics
led offensives and the second, due to a decline and fighters. In May 2015, ISIS captured the city
in the flow of foreign fighters as a result of a of Palmyra. However, the group is now under
tightening of security measures in countries some threat from the Assad regime in and
worldwide, especially by Turkey. Additionally around the city of Aleppo and the Islamic Front
ISIS has been trapped between Assad’s forces, and other rebel groups, and in northern Syria,
the Kurdish YPG and the other rebel groups in from Kurdish YPG and some elements of FSA.
Syria. ISIS made important gains in eastern Syria
but in 2015, ISIS lost vast areas due to the U.S. The Army of Conquest made some gains in the
and Arab coalition-led drone attacks and ground Idlib province of Syria against Assad but
offensives by YPG, Peshmerga and Syrian rebel currently their advance has been cut short and
forces mainly the FSA (Newsmax 2015). there are heavy clashes taking place between
the two sides. The Islamic Front allegedly has
An important turning point in Syria for ISIS was a the support of Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and
failed attack on the Kurdish city of Kobane in Jordan in terms of supply of weapons and
September 2014. Following airstrikes by the U.S. ammunition (The Independent 2015). Yet, there
-led coalition which successfully removed ISIS is no evidence of unity among these groups and
from Kobane, ISIS started to change its strategy despite the overlaps in many instances; each
from assault to defence. ISIS turned to procuring group differs in its own vision and ideology which
logistics and fighters using Tal Abyad, a town on could explain the fact that there may not be any
the Turkish border as a supply route. The town decisive winner in the civil war.
also provided a direct connection to ISIS’ de-
facto capital Raqqa. With the fall of Tal Abyad to In the northern part of Syria, Kurdish forces,
the Euphrates of Volcanoes (which was a joint along with some elements of the FSA are
operations team formed by the YPG and the advancing against ISIS with the cooperation of
FSA) at the end of June 2015, ISIS lost its lifeline the U.S.-led coalition. Airstrikes by the coalition
to Turkey (Alarabiya 2015). ISIS now has to use have helped YPG and its allies to reclaim
a route from Azez to Jarablus, cities in Syria that territory from ISIS and secure settlements. The
are further away from Raqqa. This has made it biggest gain of this front was preventing the fall

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 Syrian Civil War: Important Players, Key Implications – A Factsheet – Mekki Uludag

of Kobane to ISIS. “ Turkey has now allowed

For now, Kurdish forces, together with some
fragments of FSA are progressing towards
its airbases for use by
Raqqa with the support of the U.S.-led coalition.
The biggest challenge of this front is surprisingly
other countries,
Turkey which is not inclined to let any kind of
Kurdish dominance in northern Syria (Middle
especially the U.S., which
East Eye 2015). ISIS’ mass killings of civilians in
Kobane, the suicide attack on a Kurdish
could change the
gathering in the Turkish town of Suruc on 20 July
2015 and the Turkish government’s action dynamics of the overall
against the mourners of this incident
demonstrates this recalcitrance on the part of fight against ISIS. On 14
Ankara. It was alleged that Turkey could have
prevented all abovementioned incidents but did August 2015, the
not do so due to its proclaimed concerns about
YPG and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), Pentagon announced the
which has been waging a separatist war against
Turkey (Khodr 2015). first wave of U.S.
After the July 2015 Suruc massacre by Seyh airstrikes on ISIS and
Abdurrahman Alagoz, which saw 32 youth
activists killed in a suicide bombing attack, other rebel groups from
Turkey announced that it will join the U.S.-led
coalition against ISIS. Incirlik Air Base in
Shortly after this announcement, reports Southern Turkey. ”
emerged that Turkey’s real target was PKK and
not ISIS (Ianccino 2015). PKK however, has
significant support from countries like the U.S., countries are reluctant or inhibited to provide
due to their frontline role in fighting ISIS in Iraq. substantive support, the moderate groups in
At present, Turkey is trying to create a no-fly Syria have almost collapsed and seemingly
zone over northern Syria to protect people forced to cooperate with any of the
fleeing from ISIS and the Assad regime. It is still abovementioned fronts, including ISIS, the
keeping ground invasion as an option, though it Islamic Front or YPG in order to resume a visible
prefers to arm the more moderate groups (BBC presence in the civil war.
2015).

Turkey has now allowed its airbases for use by Road Ahead
other countries, especially the U.S., which could
change the dynamics of the overall fight against Under present conditions, the fight in Syria is
ISIS. On 14 August 2015, the Pentagon expected to continue for years. The fall of Assad
announced the first wave of U.S. airstrikes on continues to be illusive and unfortunately it is not
ISIS and other rebel groups from Incirlik Air Base an immediate priority as ISIS is seen as the most
in Southern Turkey. Washington has already dangerous threat in Syria and to the rest of the
sent a fleet of combat aircrafts and started air world. Nevertheless, the continued use of barrel
strikes on ISIS positions with better outcome bombs, chlorine gas, and collective punishment
than before due to the shorter distance and by Assad against rebels is still a matter of
availability of more time to remain on the air to serious concern for the international community.
seek and destroy ISIS targets (CNN 2015). The support of the U.S.-led coalition is the most
important factor for defeating ISIS. Aerial and
There are a number of moderate groups in Syria ammunition support by the U.S.-led coalition to
whose aim is to replace the Assad regime with a YPG and its allies has yielded important gains,
secular democratic system. However, at present including the retaking of territories and oil
these moderate groups do not have that much resources, and the cutting off of ISIS’ supply
support inside Syria. Moreover, as foreign lines in the last few months.

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 Syrian Civil War: Important Players, Key Implications – A Factsheet – Mekki Uludag

If this support continues, the front could be able to prevent ISIS’ advances by destroying
its military machines, slowing down its mobilisation, exterminating its convoys of ammuni-
tion and keeping it on the defensive. At the same time, urgent action is required to allevi-
ate the humanitarian crisis in the region due to the prolonged civil war.

Mekki Uludag is a Research Analyst with the International Center for Political Violence
and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
(RSIS), NTU.

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