49_05-03-2024
49_05-03-2024
Cotton
Association Edited & Published by Amar Singh
Cotton Exchange Building, 2nd Floor, Cotton Green, Mumbai - 400 033
Telephone: 8657442944/45/46/47/48 Email: cai@caionline.in
www.caionline.in
Technical Analysis
Price Outlook for Gujarat-ICS-105, 29mm and ICE Cotton Futures
for the Period 5th March 2024 to 2nd April 2024
Shri. Gnanasekar Thiagarajan is currently the is a part an elite team of experts for moneycontrol.com
head of Commtrendz Research, an organization which, in providing market insights. He was awarded “The
specializes in commodity research and Best Market Analyst”, for the category-
advisory to market participants in India Commodity markets- Bullion, by then
and overseas. He works closely with mostly President of India, Mr. Pranab Mukherji.
Agri-Business, base metals and precious He is a consultant and advisory
metals business corporates in India and board member for leading corporates
across the globe helping them in managing and commodity exchanges in India and
their commodity and currency price risk. overseas. He is regularly invited by
Further to his completing a post graduate television channels including CNBC
in software engineering, he did a long and ET NOW and Newswires like
stint with DowJones, promoters of Reuters and Bloomberg, to opine on
“The Wall Street Journal” and had the the commodity and forex markets. He
opportunity of closely working with has conducted training sessions for
some of the legends in Technical Analysis history in markets participants at BSE, NSE, MCX and IIM
the U.S. Bangalore and conducted many internal workshops
His columns in The Hindu Business Line have won for corporates exposed to commodity price risk. He
accolades in the international markets. He also writes has also done several training sessions for investors
a fortnightly column on a blog site for The Economic all over the country and is also a regular speaker at
Times on Global commodities and Forex markets. He various conferences in India and abroad.
• India’s principal agency for cotton procurement, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), has
acquired 33 lakh bales of 170 kg seed cotton thus far in the 2023-24 cotton season. Sluggish demand
in the downstream industry dragged cotton prices down until the end of January, causing them to dip
below the minimum support price (MSP).
• CCI has predominantly sourced its cotton from Telangana, making maximum purchases from
this region. Additionally, the company procured substantial volumes of cotton from Andhra Pradesh,
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as seed cotton prices dipped below the MSP.
International Markets
• ICE cotton futures rose on Monday aided by buying activity sparked by a price dip in the previous
session, while a weaker dollar and a firm grains market lent further support. In the previous session,
U.S. cotton futures traded limit down, marking their worst day in over seven months. Market focus
shifted to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Supply and Demand (WASDE) estimates report
due on Friday.
• Attention now falls on China’s major meeting next week, where growth target and policy goals
will be announced. Beijing is likely to maintain its support on the renewable energy sector, but that
may not be significant enough to create new demand for metals. In their latest push to halt the sector’s
slump, authorities increased pressure on banks to boost their property loans through so-called white
lists and the central bank delivered its biggest-ever cut to a key mortgage reference rate. A Bloomberg
Intelligence gauge of developer shares has erased some earlier losses following the measures, but it
is still hovering at its lowest levels since 2009. Policy support may be further strengthened if housing
prices continue to decline rapidly.
• According to the USDA report, relative crop prices indicate that cotton is more competitive this
year compared with alternative crops like corn and soybeans. USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report – its
first survey of producer planting intentions- will be conducted in early March and published on March
28, 2024.
MCX Cotton Candy Mar: The price seems to be strengthening to rise towards resistance at 63,800-
64,000. Structure suggests that dips, if any, could be held above 60,500 or maximum 59,500 to keep
alive the chances for the rise to the above-mentioned upside objectives. Any unexpected fall below
C o t t o n a ss o c i a t i o n o f i n d i a 5th March, 2024 3
As mentioned before,
using ICE futures and Options
for mitigating prices risk
especially when prices are at
elevated levels helps cushion
the fall and manage high priced inventory of cotton and yarn is ideal for the industry, but to take that
leap of faith is a humungous task for this industry where raw material price moves make or break the
profit margins.
Hedging high priced inventories in a falling market could help offset some losses from the recent
fall in cotton prices. A good opportunity to protect the inventory value of purchases, is now to Buy
PUT options (Out of the money) around peaks at 88-90c in ICE futures. This will help in mitigating any
expectations of further declines. However, if the market does rise, it is only the premium for PUT’s that
has to be borne which is very meagre.
A container of yarn roughly uses 150 bales of raw material cotton. That much of raw material price
risk is what one is exposed to till the yarn is sold. The OPTION Is ICE futures, USA helps in inventory
management. MCX Candy contracts recently launched should be a good testing ground for mills and
exporters desirous of hedging their price risk in ICE futures and options.
4 5th March, 2024 C o t t o n S t a t i s t i cs & N e w s
Conclusion:
that it has broken out of a 15-month range. In the
As mentioned in the previous update, prices
past, such rallies based on On-call situation have
could pull back towards 59,500 levels again. It
seen equally sharp downside once the expiry of
is highly unlikely to sustain at higher levels as
contract happens. Also, the inverse in the month
demand hasn’t been spectacular but clearly better
of December continues to fuel expectations of a
than it used to be before. China still struggles and
sharp fall post July, that could see mills holding
hopes of early rate cuts by FED is fading away.
high priced and unhedged inventories.
Strong resistance is presently noticed in the
63,000-64,000 zone per candy levels presently and
For Shankar 6 Guj ICS supports are seen at 58-
it may be tough to cross that in the near-term. Any
59,500 per candy and for ICE Mar cotton futures
bright spots appearing on the demand horizon in
at $90c now. The domestic technical picture looks
the form of pause in interest rates, are not likely
overbought hinting at a possible reversal in the
to last long as inflationary pressures persist.
making, but any downticks could find strong
buying interest. Therefore, we can expect prices
Important support in ICE is at $89-90 range
to be well supported initially followed by a
followed by $85-86 on the downside and in that
bullish rally in the international prices and the
zone, prices could find a lot of buying interest
domestic prices remaining flat to mildly strong
again. We expect prices to test 89-90c with a
going forward.
chance of even extending to 87c briefly before
(The views expressed in this column are of the
rising higher. The international price indicates
author and not that of Cotton Association of India)
---------
Grade Standard ICS-101 ICS-201 ICS-102 ICS-103 ICS-104 ICS-202 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-105 ICS-106 ICS-107 ICS-107 ICS-107 ICS-107
Grade Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine Fine
Below Below
Staple 22 mm 22 mm 23 mm 27 mm 26 mm 27 mm 27 mm 27 mm 28 mm 28 mm 28 mm 28 mm 29 mm 29 mm 29 mm 29 mm 30 mm 30 mm 31 mm 31 mm 32 mm 34 mm 34 mm 35 mm 35 mm
22 mm 22 mm
Micronaire 5.0-7.0 5.0-7.0 4.0-6.0 4.5-6.0 4.5-7.0 3.5-4.9 3.0-3.4 3.5-4.9 3.0-3.4 3.5-4.9 3.5-4.9 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.7-4.5 3.5-4.2 2.8-3.7 2.8-3.7 2.8-3.7 2.8-3.7
Gravimetric Trash 4% 4.5% 13% 6% 4% 4.5% 4% 4% 4% 3.5% 4% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 3% 3.5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3.5% 4% 3.5%
Strength/GPT 15 15 20 21 22 26 25 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 33 34 35 35
1 - - - 12935 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 - - - 12935 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3 - - - 12935 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
5 - - - 13498 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
6 - - - 13779 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
7 - - - 13779 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
8 - - - 13779 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
9 - - - 13919 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
10 - - - 14004 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
12 - - - 14060 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
13 - - - 14060 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
14 - - - 14144 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
15 - - - 14341 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
16 - - - 14341 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
17 - - - 14341 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
19 H O L I D A Y
20 - - - 14257 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
21 - - - 14285 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
22 - - - 14341 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
23 - - - 14426 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
24 - - - 14426 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
26 - - - 14510 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
27 - - 14650 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
28 - - - 14819 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
29 - - - 14819 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
H - - - 14819 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
L - - - 12935 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
A - - - 14058 - - N.A. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
C o t t o n S t a t i s t i cs & N e w s
A 12830 12994 10721 - 15062 14815 - 14979 13964 14761 15173 15589 15645 15936 15568 15877 15926 16121 16142 16194 16369 16421 N.A. 22426 22941 22847 23434
H = Highest L = Lowest A = Average N.A. = Not Available
7
8 5th March, 2024 C o t t o n S t a t i s t i cs & N e w s