are-crypto-markets-correlated-with-macroeconomic-factors
are-crypto-markets-correlated-with-macroeconomic-factors
are-crypto-markets-correlated-with-macroeconomic-factors
This article, by S&P Global Ratings and S&P Dow Jones Indices, is a thought leadership report that neither
addresses views about ratings on individual entities nor is a rating action. S&P Global Ratings and S&P Dow
Jones Indices are separate and independent divisions of S&P Global.
Contributors
Neil Denslow | Carla Donaghey
Key Takeaways:
– Bull and bear runs in the crypto market have both coincided with periods of ultra-
loose monetary policy and of significant tightening. While the recent rapid increase in
interest rates could have a negative impact on crypto markets, idiosyncratic factors
also seem to play a large role.
– Crypto assets could theoretically be a hedge against inflation. We think the track
record for crypto is too short to prove this. We have seen greater adoption of
cryptocurrencies in certain emerging markets with high inflation and rapid depreciation
of the local currency.
– The dollar has been generally inversely correlated with prices of crypto assets.
– Crypto markets appear to perform strongly during periods of low market volatility
and less well during high volatility.
Technology Inflation
The recent period of historically low interest rates fueled investors’ appetite for
higher-yielding assets. The 2021 bull run in the crypto market coincided with a period
of ultra-loose monetary conditions, eliciting the question of what impact, if any,
low interest rates had on crypto valuations. By the same logic, as we are in a period
of tighter monetary conditions, driven by higher interest rates and the reversal of
Quantitative Easing (QE) – known commonly as Quantitative Tightening (QT) – it is of
interest to understand the impact these dynamics will have. To better understand this
relationship, we dove into the crypto ecosystem and analyzed the relationship with key
macroeconomic factors using data through March 2023.
5. Do financial stress and market volatility spill over into the crypto ecosystem?
Conversely, when the Fed, and other major central banks increase benchmark interest
rates, higher-yielding assets become less attractive. It could be argued that the same
applies to crypto assets. We analyze whether this inverse relationship between interest
rates and crypto prices is supported by the data.
We use the risk-neutral yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond to gauge short-term
market expectations on the evolution of US interest rates – it reflects what markets
are pricing in for the Fed funds rates two years from today, according to the ACM model
developed by the Fed. To study the crypto markets, we use the S&P Cryptocurrency
Broad Digital Market Index (S&P BDMI). We focus our analysis on data from February
2017 (when the index started) to March 2023. In some cases, we look at longer time
periods and will use Bitcoin prices.
The S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index (S&P BDMI) reflects a broad
investable universe of digital assets listed on open digital exchanges. Assets have
to meet minimum liquidity and market capitalization criteria. Lukka is the pricing
provider. The index is weighted by the equivalent of market capitalization for
cryptocurrencies (coin supply multiplied by coin price). Bitcoin represents 40% of
S&P BDMI, so the index is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices.
Chart 1
On a daily rolling three-month basis (chart 2) interest rates and the crypto index have
exhibited an inverse relationship 63% of the time since May 2017. This increases to 75%
from May 2020, following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The inverse relationship
is generally in line with how we would expect traditional assets to behave.
Chart 2
In the US, three QE rounds took place in 2009-2014, leading up to the Taper Tantrum of
May 2014 when bond yields surged after Fed officials announced plans to reduce the
pace of Treasury bond purchases. Then in 2018, the Fed started reducing its balance
sheet by lowering the amount reinvested from maturing securities through Quantitative
Tightening. A new emergency QE program was introduced in 2020 during the COVID-19
pandemic, before the resumption of QT in 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at
nearly $9 trillion in early 2022 and has since gradually fallen to roughly $8.7 trillion.
QE fueled appetite for higher-risk assets (in search of higher yield). Arguably, increased
global liquidity/money supply, in an environment of favorable market conditions, should
also have a positive impact on the crypto market, all else held equal. Unprecedented
levels of monetary easing by central banks across the world since 2008/09 have
increased money supply to record levels. Chart 3 below shows the total assets on the
Fed’s balance sheet and the price of Bitcoin since 2016. The markers highlight the
fourth round of QE, which began in 2020, and the two periods of QT.
Chart 3
Bitcoin reached a peak in November 2021 before entering a ‘crypto winter’ in which
it lost more than two-thirds of its value over six months as market appetite for risky
assets decreased. This downturn took place during a tightening monetary policy that
started in June 2022. It was also coupled with crypto-specific events that followed the
decreasing price trend, such as the collapse of stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) in May 2022
and of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022.
Chart 4 shows year-over-year changes for Bitcoin and the Fed’s balance sheet since
2017. Some periods of balance sheet reduction and tightening measures, captured
by negative changes, are associated with bearish periods for Bitcoin. The 2020
expansionary period is followed by a glaring crypto rally.
Chart 4
One can also look at QE and QT through the lens of the bond markets and study the
relationship between bond premia and crypto prices. Term premia fell into negative
territory during the 2020-2021 rally as another round of QE was implemented. This
spurred investors’ interest in higher-yielding assets and high-return speculative
investments like crypto. Chart 5 plots S&P BDMI and the 10-year Zero Coupon Treasury
Term Premia.
Bond yields and premia are not always consistently impacted by QE and QT. For
example, during the QT period in 2018-2019, the 10-year Zero Coupon Treasury Term
Premia was initially positive and then turned negative. It has oscillated between
negative and positive during QT since June 2022.
Correlation between money supply and the crypto index is 0.75 over the historical
period starting in 2017. This positive relationship notably broke down during 2018, as
S&P BDMI fell, while M2 kept growing until July 2022. S&P BDMI’s decIine followed
a crypto boom in 2017, when the market was flooded with initial coin offerings and
new ventures, many of which ultimately failed. Both measures moved in the same
direction in the second half of 2022. M2 contracted while the crypto market was hit
by a series of events that fueled volatility and price declines, including the collapse of
stablecoin UST in May and the downfall of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November.
Chart 7 shows rolling three-month percent changes for M2 and S&P BDMI. Since 2017,
changes for M2 have been generally positive, with a pronounced peak at the beginning
of the pandemic, while the crypto index has exhibited several periods of negative
returns. In the second half of 2022, both indices exhibited negative returns.
To understand whether recession risks weigh on crypto assets, we can use a widely
followed gauge of economic expectations – the slope of the US Treasury yield curve. In
particular, the difference between the yields on the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity
and the 3-month Treasury Constant Maturity, which has historically been a better
signal of an incoming recession than other tenors. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is
usually higher than that on the 3-month T-bill, giving the curve a positive slope. When
this relationship inverts, it suggests that interest rates will fall in the future due to an
economic slowdown. In the past, recessions have generally occurred whenever there
was a sustained yield curve inversion. A notable exception is the current inversion that
started in October 2022.
The yield curve has inverted three times since the 2008 recession. The first took
place from March 2019 to October 2019, as above-target inflation prompted the Fed
to increase interest rates, increasing expectations that the economy would fall into a
recession. However, resiliency in the labor market prevented a recession during that
period. The second inversion, at the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020, did
not last long because of strong monetary and fiscal policies designed to mitigate the
economic shock of COVID-19 restrictions. The yield curve inverted again in October
2022, as noted in the previous paragraph, and it remains in that state as of May 2023.
Chart 8:
Chart 9 below shows a more detailed view since late October 2022. Notably, S&P BDMI
has more than recovered since losing 25% of its value in November 2022, even with the
yield curve remaining negative. Some of the crypto volatility was linked to the implosion
of digital-asset exchange FTX and its domino effect in the crypto lending space, as well
as general uneasiness about crypto risks and governance.
Chart 9
Fiat currencies in emerging markets can exhibit large and recurring depreciations,
or be characterized by limits on convertibility to hard currency. By contrast, crypto
assets have the potential to weather economic shocks and remain a unit of account
and medium of exchange. This perception may have helped to fuel adoption of
cryptocurrencies in developing nations. Crypto gained popularity as a means of
remittance payments and for sending money across borders. It is now seen by many as
an enticing investment opportunity as well, which has encouraged the launch of several
asset management products that include crypto assets.
A frequently asked question is whether crypto assets can be a good hedge for
inflation. Bitcoin and other crypto assets should be less correlated to instabilities in a
financial system due to their decentralized nature. High fungibility also makes crypto
a potentially strong candidate to store value in unfavorable economic conditions. Still,
this is a complex topic, and the data may be too short to confidently address it.
We analyzed the relationship between inflation and the crypto ecosystem over the past
six years – a period featuring a transition from low inflation pre-pandemic to markedly
high rates. We also used the relationship between inflation and gold (a traditional
inflation hedge) since 1982 as a comparison. If crypto follows the path of “digital gold”,
returns should be positively related to changes in US inflation expectations.
Chart 10
The historical correlation between the daily returns of S&P BDMI and the inflation
expectation indices is low, around 0.10.
Looking at rolling three-month returns for S&P BDMI and 10-year breakeven inflation
expectations in chart 11 shows no conclusive pattern. There is a notable number
of periods where returns on crypto and inflation indices exhibit opposite signs,
meaning an increase in inflation expectations is not associated with an increase in
cryptocurrency prices. However, there are also periods where the two measures are
both positive or both negative.
Overall, the data to date does not support a conclusive answer on crypto assets’
hedging capabilities with respect to inflation. By contrast, Chart 12 below shows that
S&P GSCI Gold index and the 10-year Breakeven Inflation Expectation index have
tracked each other quite well since 2013. Additionally, there is evidence of Granger
causality between the 10-year Breakeven Inflation Expectation index and the S&P GSCI
Gold index at a 95% confidence level. The same test fails for Bitcoin. (Granger causality
is a statistical test to verify whether one variable is useful in forecasting another.)
Chart 12
It’s also worth noting that supply matters in crypto markets, even if this isn’t directly
analogous to inflation. New coins are minted with proof-of-work mining or proof-of-
stake validation. Supply of Bitcoin increases because miners get newly minted coins in
return for their work. These rewards continually decrease and they will eventually end
in about 2140. Ether, on the other hand, has recently had brief periods of burning more
than minting. This will likely continue going forward.
We measure dollar strength, using the Nominal Broad US Dollar Index, which tracks the
currency against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners. Investors
should favor other currencies when the dollar is expected to weaken (an index decline)
and demonstrate the opposite amid dollar strength (a rising index). Arguably, the
same logic should apply to crypto assets, which would lead to a negative relationship
between crypto prices and the US Dollar Index.
Chart 13 shows the Nominal Broad US Dollar Index and S&P BDMI. The historical
correlation between their daily returns is –0.16. That compares with a –0.40 correlation
between the US Dollar Index and S&P GSCI Gold. In chart 14, a rolling three-month
correlation analysis shows an inverse relationship (negative correlation) between the
US Dollar Index and both S&P BDMI and S&P GSCI Gold 75% of the time.
Idiosyncratic events may derail the expected relationship between crypto and the
US Dollar Index over short time periods. Furthermore, because correlation does
not substitute for causation, it is not obvious that a change in the US Dollar Index
can provide insight into future movements in the crypto markets. In fact, there is no
Granger causality between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin prices.
Chart 14
FSI turned positive in early March 2020, around the day when WHO declared COVID-19
to be a global pandemic. The shock was felt in crypto markets, with Bitcoin losing more
than 40% of its value that day. Many other cryptos also plunged, along with stocks.
Bitcoin then subsequently started a bull run, along with other assets, which continued
until late 2021. FSI turned negative in June 2020. The FSI turned positive towards the
middle of 2022, as the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased prices of
several commodities, putting upward pressure on inflation, and consequently raising
interest rate hike expectations.
Chart 15
We also looked at another widely used metric for market volatility – The Chicago Board
Options Exchange’s (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX). Also known as the market fear index,
the VIX measures expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 index
option prices.
Higher levels for the VIX indicate expectations for increased volatility. That adds
pressure and fear to financial markets, drives liquidity premiums upward and reduces
investors’ confidence. In such a market, it is expected that cryptocurrencies will exhibit
more volatility.
In addition to VIX, we looked at the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX), which
measures the short-term volatility of crude oil as priced by the United States Oil Fund.
We chose to analyze this index because considerable energy requirements mean that
there may be a relationship between energy prices and Bitcoin miners. Chart 16 shows
the VIX and OVX indices and S&P BDMI. The volatility indices both show sudden spikes
in Spring 2020 during the COVID-19 period.
Chart 16
As more institutional
investors turn to
crypto, contagion risk
between traditional
and crypto assets
may rise.
– Stablecoin Depegging Highlights DeFi’s Exposure To TradFi Risks, March 15, 2023
– The Fed’s Plan For US Banks Should Reduce Contagion Risk, March 13, 2023
– Regulating Crypto: The Bid To Frame, Tame, Or Game The Ecosystem, July 14, 2022
– Stablecoins: Common Promises, Diverging Outcomes, June 15, 2022
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