171

MAPPING OF EARTHQUAKE RISK AREAS BASED

ON THE PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD
ANALYSIS (PSHA) METHOD FROM EARTHQUAKE
SOURCES ON THE ISLAND OF BALI

Riski Kurniawan 1, Cyrilus Sukaca Budiono 2, Indro Lukito 3, Wahyudi Sumarwoto 4

1,2,3,4 National defence and Aerospace Technology Research group Adisutjipto Institute Of
AerospaceTechnology
Mechanical Engineering DepartmentYogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract . because Indonesia is countries between three major plates—the In-

do-Australian plate in the south, the Pacific plate in the northeast, and the Eura-
sian plate in the north—high-intensity earthquakes are common in this region.
Indonesia has a high seismicity level both on land and at sea as a result of these
three plates coming together. Bali is one of the provinces that is particularly
susceptible to earthquakes. Seismic hazards can be used to plan buildings re-
sistant to earthquakes and describe the effects of an earthquake at a location,
which can help anticipate community preparedness and efforts to mitigate
earthquake disasters. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method
is used for seismic hazard data processing in this type of descriptive research,
which entails obtaining data from the NEIC/USGS earthquake catalogue for the
years 1900 through 2015. The earthquake parameters that cause the greatest
ground motion serve as the foundation for PSHA. The PGA results got from the
Megathrust seismic tremor source peril map for the long-term return time frame
went from 0.10 g to 0.30 g and the long-term return time frame went from 0.12
g to 0.45 g. For the PGA results obtained on the source risk guide of the Benioff
model for a return time of 500 years, specifically 0.10 g to 0.12 g and for a re-
turn time of 2500 years, a worth of 0.12 g to 0.25 g is acquired.

Keywords: Hazard, earthquake, psha.

1 INTRODUCTION

Indonesia is located between the confluence of 3 major plates (oceanic crust and
continental crust) namely the Eurasian plate, the Indo-Australian plate and the Pacific
plate, as well as the microplate namely the Philippine plate. This results in Indonesia
having a high level of seismicity. This condition makes Indonesia highly vulnerable to
earthquake hazards. One of the areas in Indonesia that has a high level of earthquake
vulnerability is the island of Bali. This is by its tectonic records and conditions, where
high earthquake activity has been recorded.
© The Author(s) 2023
R. Andrie Asmara et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 5th Annual Advanced Technology, Applied Science, and
Engineering Conference (ATASEC) 2023, Advances in Engineering Research 229,
https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-358-0_6
Mapping of Earthquake Risk Areas Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 51

Earthquake natural disasters cannot be prevented and cannot be predicted accurate-

ly in time, place and strength, but the impact of earthquakes can be reduced by mitiga-
tion measures. Disasters caused by earthquakes can have direct and indirect impacts.
The collapse of buildings, material loss, loss of life and damage are some examples of
the direct impacts of earthquakes. In addition, earthquakes can trigger other disasters
such as landslides, fires, and industrial and transportation accidents as indirect im-
pacts. This risk will increase if the area affected by the earthquake has a dense popu-
lation and is also an area undergoing rapid development, such as Bali Island with a
population of 4.32 million in 2020 (BPS).

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The first data processing is earthquake data processing using the PSHA method with
the help of Ez Frisk 7.52 software. The data processing using PSHA goes through
several stages, namely:

1. Earthquake data
The data used is historical earthquake data for 114 years with coordinates 1° - 14°
South Latitude and 102° - 130° East Longitude from various earthquake catalog
sources such as USGS, ISC etc. The data used is a maximum depth of 300 km and a
magnitude ≥ 5 Mw. This is because the earthquakes that occurred with a depth of
more than 300 km and a magnitude of less than 5 MW did not cause serious damage
to the surface.

Fig. 1. Map of the distribution of epicenters in the study area.

2. Conversion of the magnitude scale

Earthquake data obtained from various catalog sources obtained various types of
magnitude units used, so it is necessary to do a magnitude equalization. All earth-
quake data are converted to moment magnitude (Mw) because moment magnitude is
52 R. Kurniawan et al.

the best and most consistent earthquake magnitude in showing the magnitude of an
earthquake compared to other magnitudes.

Table 1. Correlation of conversions of various magnitudes (Irsyam, et al., 2010)

Korelasi Konversi Range Data

Mw = 0,85 mb + 1,03 3,5≤ mb ≤6,2
Mw = 0,114 mb 2 – 0,556 mb + 5,560 4,9 ≤ mb ≤ 8,2
Mw = 0,67 Ms + 2,07 3,0≤ Ms ≤6,1
Mw = 0,99 Ms + 0,08 6,2≤ Ms ≤8,2
mb = 0,125 ML 2 – 0,389 ML + 3,513 3,0 < ML < 6,2
ML = 0,717 MD + 1,003 ≤ MD ≤ 5,8

3. Identification of earthquakes
The data obtained is then carried out in the decluster process (separation of earth-
quake data between the main earthquake and aftershocks). In the identification of the
main earthquake using the help of ZMAP software[13] with the criteria of Gardner
and Knopoff (1974)[7] to eliminate beforeshock and aftershock from the earthquake
catalog. The results of this processing produce the main earthquake which is present-
ed in Figure 2.

Fig. 2. Map of the distribution of the main earthquake epicenters in the study area.

4. Earthquake Source Modeling

Earthquake sources are classified into 2 types, namely subduction zones and Shal-
low Crustal zones. The subduction zone is divided into two mechanisms, namely
Megathrust (interface) and Benioff (intraslab), then the Shallow Crustal zone is also
divided into two, namely Fault and Shallow Background. For an explanation of the
earthquake source zone model in this study using subduction earthquake source
zones. Subduction earthquake modeling is earthquake modeling based on clearly
Mapping of Earthquake Risk Areas Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 53

identified seismic data. Within the subduction earthquake source zone it is divided
into two, namely the Megathrust zone and the Benioff zone, namely:

• The source of the Megatrrust earthquake

Depth limit, in subduction earthquakes with depths between 0-50 km is the
Megathrust zone.
• Benioff earthquake source
The source of the earthquake with a depth of more than 50 km is the Benioff
zone. The source of the Benioff earthquake is a continuation of the Megathrust
zone

5. Data Completeness Analysis

Completeness analysis is very important for data on earthquake activity. If the
completeness of the data for an earthquake event is incomplete, it will cause confu-
sion in the calculation of the seismic hazard parameters in the form of parameters a
and b. If the data used is incomplete in the earthquake risk analysis, the results ob-
tained will be underestimated for small earthquakes and will result in overestimation
for large earthquakes. Analysis to determine the completeness of an earthquake cata-
log that is used is quite complete or cannot use the Steep (1973) method

Fig. 3. Graph of completeness analysis of earthquake data in the study area

6. Determination of Parameters a and b

Parameters a and b are the parameters used to predict the maximum value of the
earthquake from the earthquake source. This parameter is determined using the max-
imum likelihood method [1] with the help of ZMAP software.
7. Determination of the attenuation function
The attenuation function is a function that describes the relationship between
ground motion intensity (I) and magnitude (M) and distance (R) from a point source
within the source area. However, in the Indonesian region there is no data used to
derive the attenuation function, so data is needed from other regions that have similar
geological and seismotectonic characteristics to the areas to be studied in Indonesia.
The attenuation function used in this study is shown in Table 2.
54 R. Kurniawan et al.

Table 2. Attenuation function for the earthquake source model [2]

Sumber Gempa Fungsi Atenuasi

Youngs et al (1997)
Subduksi inter-
Zhao et al (2006)
face (megathrust)
Atkinson-Boore, Worldwide (2003)
Atkinson-Boore, Worldwide (2003)
Subduksi in-
Atkinson-Boore, Cascadia (2003)
traslab (benioff)
Youngs et al (1997)
Campbell-Bozorgnia, NGA (2008)
Fault & shallow
Boore-Atkinson, NGA (2008)
background
Chiou-Youngs, NGA (2008)
8. Analisis Seismic Hazard
This theory proposes the assumption of earthquake magnitude M and distance R as
continuous independent random variables. Mathematically the general probability
theory can be expressed as:

𝑃[𝐼 ≥ 𝑖] = ∬𝑅𝑀 𝑃[𝐼 ≥ 𝑖[𝑀, 𝑅]𝑓𝑀 (𝑀)𝑓𝑅 (𝑅)𝑑𝑀𝑑𝑅] (1)

where 𝑓𝑀 is the probability function of the magnitude, 𝑓𝑅 is the probability function

of the hypocentric distance, P[I ≥ i | M , R] are conditional probabilities of intensity I,
at a location that is considered for earthquake events with magnitude M and hypocen-
ter distance R. The analysis process of this processing with the help of EZ-Frisk 7.52
software.

3 RESULT

Data processing in this study uses Ez-Frisk software and produces hazard maps that
are differentiated based on earthquake sources, namely Megathrust earthquake
sources (interface subduction), Benioff earthquake sources (intraslab subduction),
Fault earthquake sources, Shallow Background earthquake sources and combination
earthquake sources. (all source) with respective maximum acceleration values in bed-
rock for return periods of 500 years and 2500 years.
Mapping of Earthquake Risk Areas Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 55

Hazard Map for Megathrust Earthquake Sources.

Fig. 5. Hazard map of Megathrust earthquake

Fig. 4. Megathrust earthquake source hazard
sources with PGA in bedrock for a return
map with PGA in bedrock for a return period
period of 2500 years
of 500 years

Judging from Figure 5.1 and Figure 5.2 which are hazard maps for Megathrust earth-
quake sources, the highest PGA values are in the southern part of Bali Island, due to
the closer distance to the Megathrust zone which is in the south of Bali Island.

Hazard Map for Benioff Earthquake Sources.

Fig. 6. Source hazard map of the Benioff Fig. 7. Source hazard map of the Benioff
earthquake with PGA in bedrock for a return earthquake with PGA in bedrock for a return
period of 500 years. period of 2500 years
56 R. Kurniawan et al.

The high PGA value on the Benioff earthquake source hazard map is found in the
southern area of Bali Island, due to the location of the area in the Benioff zone which
is shallower than the northern region of Bali Island. In the Benioff earthquake source
model the distribution pattern shows the same pattern as the distribution pattern for
Megathrust but with a value smaller one. This difference is due to the fact that the
Benioff zone is at a depth of 50 km to 300 km compared to the Megathrust zone,
where the maximum earthquake occurs at a depth of 50 km.

4 CONCLUSION

Based on the results of research using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis meth-
od at each earthquake source for the area of Bali Island, the conclusions are as fol-
lows:

1. PGA results obtained from the hazard map of the Megathrust earthquake source
with a return period of 500 years ranging from 0.10 g to 0.30 g and a return period
of 2500 years ranging from 0.12 g to 0.45 g.
2. The PGA results obtained on the source hazard map of the Benioff model for a re-
turn period of 500 years are 0.10 g to 0.12 g and for a return period of 2500 years a
value of 0.12 g to 0.25 g is obtained.

5 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors would like to express special gratitude to the Adisutjipto Institut of Aero-
space Technology (ITD adisutjipto) for funding incentive for this research activity.

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