RYSTAD ENERGY

UPSTREAM COUNTRY REPORT

July 2024

India

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
 Contents
Summary 3
Production 5
Capital Investments 16
Cash Flow and Valuation 18
M&A 19
Emissions 21
Assumptions 22
Glossary 23

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
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 Executive Summary

Executive Summary
India is the 25th largest producer of oil and gas in 93% of the country total production in 2023.
the world with an average production of around Brownfield development will dominate the
1,181 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day country’s capital spending, indicating a wave of
(boepd) for the last three years. This is expected to project maintenance of existing fields. Between
increase to around 1,246 thousand by 2025, before 2021 and 2023, India has commited around $7.3
reaching 1,090 thousand in 2030. Liquids billion towards greenfield spending in sanctioning
dominates output, representing about 57% of projects. The explorers in the country have also
cumulative production, with the remainder gas. spent about $8.0 billion on exploration over the
Currently, 440 fields are under production, in last five years and have unearthed around 293
addition to 41 fields which are currently being million barrels of new resources. The country's
developed and 360 discoveries. ONGC, Oil India, remaining resources as of end of 2023 stand at 23
Reliance, Vedanta Resources and BP are among the billion barrels of oil equivalent.
top producers in the country contributing about

Recoverable economical resources Total production

Million boe Thousand boepd
1P Remaining 1,400
1,200
Crude Oil 1,093 11,370
1,000

Condensate 97 584 800

600
NGL 216 729 400
200
Gas 1,825 10,229
0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Oil Condensate NGL Gas
Total investments
Million USD
10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

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Capex Exploration Capex
ONGC
3
Executive Summary

Country map

Abandoned Under development

Producing Discovery Undiscovered

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
 Resources and Production

Resources and Production

India produced around 1,202 thousand boepd oil India resources is almost equally split between
and gas in 2022 and 1,160 thousand boepd in liquids and gas, with liquids making up 55%, while
2023, 55% of which was liquids and the remainder the remaining consists of gas. Furthermore,
gas. Rystad Energy expects the country's classifying the resource based on its lifecycle
production to increase, reaching around 1,213 category, we notice that the bulk of its volumes
thousand boepd by 2026. Mature fields (fields that are yet to be approved and currently classified
have produced over 50% of their reserves) and under life cycle category discovery. Deep diving
semi-mature fields (produced between 25% and into the resources by supply segment, shale/tight
50%) make up 91% of the country’s production. oil dominates representing about 38% of the
Splitting production by supply segment, 65% of country's remaining resources.
output for 2023 was from fields located offshore.
Within the offshore segment, offshore shelf
dominates with 76%, followed by offshore
deepwater. 42 assets have commenced
production since 2020 and are cumulatively
expected to recover around 1,401 million boe of
hydrocarbon over their lifetime, and are expected
to add around 130 thousand boepd of liquids and
gas at peak in 2025.

Remaining Resources
Percent

100%

90% Other Onshore

80%
Gas
Other
70%
Undiscovered
60% Shale

50%

40%

30% Shelf
Oil INOC
20%

10% Producing Deepwater

0%
Hydrocarbons Life cycle Supply segment
RAHUL VERMA Company Segment
ONGC
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 Resources and Production

Remaining Resources for top 10 Companies

Thousand boepd

Oil Condensate NGL Gas

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

BP

Indian Oil
Resources
ONGC

Reliance

Indus Gas

Jindal Steel and

Oil India

Great Eastern
Ministry Of Oil &

Power Limited
Vedanta
Gas (India)

Energy
Production by Year for top 5 Companies
Thousand boepd
1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

ONGC Ministry Of Oil & Gas (India)

Oil India Vedanta Resources
Reliance
RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
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 Resources and Production

Oil Production by Life Cycle

Thousand boepd
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Abandoned Producing Under development Discovery Undiscovered

Oil Production by Supply Segment

Thousand boepd
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Offshore deepwater Offshore shelf Other Onshore Shale/Tight oil

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 Resources and Production

Gas Production by Life Cycle

Thousand boepd
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Abandoned Producing Under development Discovery Undiscovered

Gas Production by Supply Segment

Thousand boepd
800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Offshore deepwater Offshore shelf Other Onshore Shale/Tight oil

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
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 Resources and Production

NGL Production by Life Cycle

Thousand boepd
160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Abandoned Producing Under development Discovery Undiscovered

NGL Production by NGL Detail

Thousand boepd
160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Propane Butane Pentane

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
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Top producing projects by remaining resources
Production charts are in thousand boepd
Resources are in million boe

Mumbai High 300

250
Start-up year 1976 200
150
Original 6,122
Resources 100

Remaining 971 50
Resources 0

Vasai 200

1988
150
Start-up year
100
Original 2,369
Resources
50
Remaining 288
Resources 0

D-55 (KGD6-MJ1) 100

80
Start-up year 2023
60
Original 234 40
Resources
20
Remaining 228
Resources 0

RAHUL VERMA
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Top producing projects by remaining resources
Production charts are in thousand boepd
Resources are in million boe

SSF and SSG (Integrated development) 35

30
Start-up year 2021 25
20
Original 241 15
Resources 10
Remaining 219 5
Resources 0

Greatr Hapjan Area 40

35
1989
30
Start-up year
25
20
Original 449
15
Resources
10
Remaining 210 5
Resources 0

KG-DWN-98/2 Northern Area (Cluster 70

2A) 60
2024
50
Start-up year
40
Original 187 30
Resources 20
163 10
Remaining
Resources 0

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ONGC
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Top development assets
Breakeven
Approval Start-up Price Resources
Asset Operator Facility Type Field Type Year Year USD/boe Mmboe
Daman Gas Gas-
Enhancement (B-12- Condensate
2/18/24) ONGC Fixed field 2024 2027 58 108
Gujarat State
Pisawada Kauka (GSPCL) Onshore Oil field 2018 2027 56 55
Subsea tie
U-1 ONGC back Gas field 2018 2024 22 47

R-1 (Annapurna) ONGC Fixed Gas field 2018 2024 23 46

Subsea tie
A-1 ONGC back Gas field 2018 2024 21 34

Santhal (redevelop) ONGC Onshore Oil field 2017 2026 19 25

Gas-
Condensate
Madanam-3 ONGC Onshore field 2015 2024 12 24
Cauvery PY-3
(Redevelop) ONGC Floater Oil field 2023 2024 35 18

Jyoti-2 Indian Oil Onshore Oil field 2018 2025 18 17

B-126N-1 ONGC Fixed Oil field 2023 2024 55 15

*Excludes Shale/Tight Oil Assets RAHUL VERMA

ONGC
12
 Top yet to be sanctioned assets
Breakeven
Approval Start-up Price Resources
Asset Operator Facility Type Field Type Year Year USD/bbl Mmboe
Gas-
Subsea tie Condensate
UD-1/UD-4/UD-5 ONGC back field 2027 2031 34 360
Gas-
Ministry Of Oil & Subsea tie Condensate
D-5/(SH2) Gas (India) back field 2028 2030 32 218
Gas-
Ministry Of Oil & Subsea tie Condensate
D-38 (KG-III-05-J1) Gas (India) back field 2029 2033 48 210
Gas-
Ministry Of Oil & Condensate
D-56 Gas (India) Floater field 2030 2032 28 114
Gas-
Condensate
D-32 (AJ) Reliance Fixed field 2026 2030 60 91
Gas-
Ministry Of Oil & Subsea tie Condensate
D-35 (A1) Gas (India) back field 2030 2033 46 79
Gas-
Vedanta Condensate
A3-2 Resources Fixed field 2028 2031 42 78
Gas-
Ministry Of Oil & Subsea tie Condensate
D-53 (CYPR-D6-SA1) Gas (India) back field 2031 2034 24 62
Great Eastern
Raniganj(South) (FFD) Energy Onshore Gas field 2025 2027 25 59
Subsea tie
MDW-2A ONGC back Gas field 2031 2034 44 59

*Excludes Shale/Tight Oil Assets RAHUL VERMA

ONGC
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 Cash flows and valuation

Discovered Resources
According to Rystad Energy estimates, India has dominates with around 33% of the discovered
discovered around 1,620 million boe of resources, followed by shelf with 32%. India
recoverable resources between 2011 and 2023, average reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for the
dominated by gas. Offshore accounts for about last three years stands at 3%.
78% of cumulative discovered volumes since
2011. Of the offshore volumes, deepwater

Discovered Resources
Million boe
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Liquids Gas

RAHUL VERMA
* Excludes shale/tight oil
ONGC
14
Top discoveries in last five years
Discovery Resources NPV
Asset Year Operator Field Type Start-up Year Mmboe MUSD

CHN-B-1 (Channel B) 2020 ONGC Gas field 2029 24 310

YS-6-2 2019 ONGC Gas field 2028 22 -68

Gas-
Adani Welspun Condensate
MB-OSN-2005/2 (A1) 2021 Exploration field 2027 15 69
Gas-
Condensate
BS-17-1 2020 ONGC field 2026 12 43

VGN-1 (VGN-A) 2021 ONGC Oil field 2027 8 -14

Ranaghat 2024 ONGC Gas field 2030 6 27

* Based on Rystad Energy estimates, excludes Shale/Tight Oil assets RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
15
 Cash flows and valuation

Capital Investments
India has reduced its exploration and billion towards exploration over the last 5 years,
development spending from more than $8.6 to unearth new volumes or appraise their
billion in 2019 to around $7.9 billion in 2023. existing finds. Onshore segment dominates the
Going forward, we expect total oil and gas country's exploration spending representing
investments in India to be around $28 billion about 68% of the cumulative spending between
between 2024 and 2026. Brownfield 2019 and 2023.
development will dominate the country's capital
spending, indicating a wave of project
maintenance at existing fields. In terms of supply
segments, other onshore dominates,
representing about 46% of the projected capital
expenditure until 2026. Furthermore, 24% of
conventional assets to be sanctioned have a
breakeven of below $45 per boe.

Additionally, the country has spent around $8.0

Capital Investments
Million USD
10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Brownfield Exploration Greenfield

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
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 Resources and Production

Capital Investments by Supply Segment

Million USD

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Offshore deepwater Offshore shelf Other Onshore Shale/Tight oil

Exploration Cost
Million USD

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
17
 Cash flows and valuation

Economics
Million USD
40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-5,000
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Free Cash Flow Government Take Capex Exploration Capex Opex Revenue

Free Cash Government Exploration

Year Flow Take Capex Capex Opex Revenue
2014 2,905 18,861 5,653 3,347 4,186 34,953
2015 -705 9,375 5,571 1,817 3,772 19,830
2016 -2,319 6,704 6,115 1,804 3,419 15,723
2017 934 8,271 4,517 1,825 3,607 19,154
2018 1,482 10,536 6,233 2,028 3,704 23,983
2019 -76 8,710 6,488 2,095 3,617 20,834
2020 -1,467 5,106 5,103 1,614 3,334 13,691
2021 2,057 9,349 4,893 1,429 3,574 21,301
2022 5,317 14,336 5,210 1,407 4,072 30,342
2023 2,308 11,298 6,414 1,438 4,557 26,015
2024 2,219 10,750 7,197 2,299 4,994 27,459
2025 2,940 10,549 6,979 2,311 5,411 28,189
2026 1,385 9,309 6,747 2,403 5,064 24,907
2027 980 9,137 6,328 2,279 5,605 24,330
2028 1,335 9,104 6,674 1,931 4,911 23,955
2029 417 8,870 7,264 2,172 4,921 23,645
2030 1,917 9,073 5,670 2,879 5,068 24,608
2031 1,173 9,316 5,266 3,620 5,053 24,427
2032 1,186 8,986 6,003 3,170 4,935 24,280
2033 3,150 9,026 4,821 3,062 5,039 25,098
2034 5,929 9,157 4,381 2,631 5,311 27,409
RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
18
 Transactions

M&A
Top 10 companies acquiring resources Top 10 companies divesting resources
Million boe Million boe

Undisclosed Synergia Energy

Mercator Petroleum…
Indian Oil
Gujarat State (GSPCL)
Synergia Energy
Adbhoot Estates
Kiri and Company
Logistics Selan Exploration…
Hindustan Oil
Exploration Co (HOEC) Oilmax Energy Pvt. Ltd.
ONGC Jubilant Enpro

0 20 40 60 -60 -40 -20 0

Top 10 companies acquiring by deal value Top 10 companies divesting by deal value
Million USD Million USD

Synergia Energy
Undisclosed
Mercator Petroleum
Indian Oil (India)
Adbhoot Estates
Hindustan Oil Exploration
Co (HOEC) Gujarat State (GSPCL)
Synergia Energy
Oilmax Energy Pvt. Ltd.

ONGC Selan Exploration

Technologies
Kiri and Company Jubilant Enpro
Logistics
0 10 20 30 40 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

RAHUL VERMA
Ownership is based on remaining resources as of 1st of January for the year. Deal date isONGC
the deal announcement date

19
 Transactions

Latest transactions

Traded
Deal value, resources,
Deal date Deal heading Seller Buyer MUSD Mmboe
Synergia Energy divests stake in certain Indian assets
2023-12-05 Synergia Energy Undisclosed 31 51
to Selan Exploration Technologies
Hindustan Oil
Hindustan Oil Exploration acquires balance 50% stake
2023-07-11 Jubilant Enpro Exploration Co 0 0
in Geoenpro Petroleum Ltd
(HOEC)
Mercator
2023-03-08 Indian Oil acquires Mercator Petroleum Petroleum Indian Oil 18 21
(India)
Asian Energy Services acquires stakes in Indian field Oilmax Energy Asian Energy
2022-02-07 2 0
from Oilmax for $1.82 million Pvt. Ltd. Services
Oilex to acquire remaining stake in Cambay PSC in Gujarat State
2021-04-23 Synergia Energy 2 9
India from Gujarat State for $2.2 million (GSPCL)
Hindustan Oil
Hindustan Oil Exploration Co increased its stake in
2020-12-11 Adbhoot Estates Exploration Co 10 1
Indian field from its partner Adbhoot Estates
(HOEC)
Selan
ONGC took over Indrora field from Selan Exploration
2020-03-12 Exploration ONGC 1 0
after the contract expiration
Technologies
Kiri and
Kiri & Company Logistics to acquire field in India from Gujarat State
2020-01-28 Company 1 0
Oilex and GSPC (GSPCL)
Logistics
Kiri and
Kiri & Company Logistics to acquire field in India from
2020-01-28 Synergia Energy Company 0 0
Oilex and GSPC
Logistics
ONGC takes full ownership of field cluster in India
2019-12-20 Shell ONGC 65 36
from Reliance and Shell
ONGC takes full ownership of field cluster in India
2019-12-20 Reliance ONGC 65 36
from Reliance and Shell
Reliance increases stake in KG-D6 in India as Niko
2019-09-15 Niko Resources Reliance 279 45
Resources defaults on payments
BP increases stake in KG-D6 in India as Niko Resources
2019-09-15 Niko Resources BP 139 22
defaults on payments
Hardy Oil & Gas sells off Hardy Exploration and Hardy Oil and
2019-07-19 Invenire Energy 3 4
Production to Invenire Energy in a $3 Million deal. Gas
Vedanta
2019-03-11 Vedanta increases its interest in Cairn India Other partner(s) 18 4
Resources
Invenire Energy acquired Tata Petrodyne for $100
2019-02-13 Tata Petrodyne Invenire Energy 69 4
million.
Reliance relinquished D-53, D-54 and D-56 discoveries Ministry Of Oil &
2018-12-07 Reliance 175 111
in India. Gas (India)
BP has sold 30% interest in block CB-ONN-2003/1 in Sun
2018-07-30 BP 198 32
India Petrochemicals
Sun Petrochemicals acquires 100% interest in offshore Sun
2018-07-29 Reliance 461 75
Cambay block from Reliance Petrochemicals
Vedanta
2017-03-23 Vedanta Limited acquired 100% stake in Cairn India Cairn India 59 20
Resources

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
20
 Emissions

Emissions
India is expected to have average upstream stemming from extraction and the other 22%
direct CO2 emissions of 11 million tonnes per attributed to flaring.
annum from 2025 until 2027, with about 78 %

Upstream CO2 emissions

Million Tonnes CO2 kgCO2/boe

18 40

16 35

14
30

12
25

10
20
8

15
6

10
4

2 5

0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Extraction Flaring Intensity

RAHUL VERMA
ONGC
21
 Assumptions

Definitions
Item Definition

Resources Resources are the remaining expected ultimate recovery reserves (EUR). This
consists of reserves plus contingent resources.

Discount date and rate All cash flows are discounted at 10% nominal from 1st January in the current
year unless otherwise stated.

Inflation rate The base case inflation rate used in this report is 2.5%.

Breakeven Breakeven prices are calculated using current cost levels with cost compression
as discussed in the introduction. In the NPV calculations under different
scenarios, we have assumed lower costs in the lower oil price scenarios due to
further cost compression.

Fiscal regime This report reflects the latest revisions of local fiscal regime. Assumes all tax
paid mid year.

Commodity prices
Year Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl nominal)

2023 82
2024 88
2025 83
2026 74
2027 75
2028 77

RAHUL VERMA
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
ONGC
22
 Glossary

Glossary
Metric Definition

Average Government Take Present value of the aggregate future government take divided by the
sum of total future Gov. take PV and total future FCF PV. Cash flows are
discounted to the current year at the 10% rate. All cash flows used in
calculation are expressed in nominal terms

Average Gross Tax Rate Five year average (since start-up year for not yet producing fields or
from the current year in other cases) gross taxes (Royalty effects +
Taxes opex) divided by average Revenue for the same period. All cash
flows used in calculation are expressed in real terms

Breakeven Price Breakeven Price is the flat real prices the continued operation of the
assets is commercial, seen from current year, i.e. the price required for
a positive NPV. Abandonment costs and Tax effects of previous
investments are not included. For gas/gas-condensate fields it is the gas
breakeven price, otherwise it is the oil breakeven price. For service
contracts Breakevens are based on FCF+GovTake. Nominal cash flows
are used in the calculations

Brownfield Capex Total investment costs (well and facility capex) from two years after
start-up. For already producing fields Brownfield Capex represents the
aggregate future investments since current year. Per boe metric is
based on remaining resources

Development Capex Total investment costs (well and facility capex) from start of
development to two years after start-up, expressed in real terms.
Development Capex pr boe corresponds to total development cost
divided by total initial resources

Half Cycle Breakeven Price Half Cycle Breakeven Price shows the exact price at which the assets are
commercial, seen from the approval date, i.e. oil price required for a
positive NPV at the approval date. For gas/gas-condensate fields it is the
gas breakeven price, otherwise it is the oil breakeven price. All cash
flows used in calculation are expressed in nominal terms

RAHUL VERMA
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
ONGC
23
 Glossary

Glossary
Metric Definition

Other Opex Aggregate future other opex (SG&A, Transportation, Abandonment)

since current year, expressed in real terms, divided by total remaining
asset resources

Payback Period Payback period is a number of years since the approval year till the year
when cumulative FCF becomes positive. It shows how long time it takes
to recover the costs. All cash flows used in calculation are expressed in
nominal terms

Price differential for oil Five year average (since start-up year for not yet producing fields or
compared to Brent from the current year in other cases) price differential between realized
oil (crude oil + condensate) price and Brent

Production Opex Aggregate future production opex since current year, expressed in real
terms, divided by total remaining asset resources. Includes only the
lifting cost of production.

Profitability Index The profitability index is defined as the NPV divided by the
present value of all future capex plus one

Project IRR IRR represents a discount rate that makes an asset NPV equal to zero in
UCube Base case. IRR calculation relies on the same formula as NPV
does and includes all years from approval. All cash flows used in
calculation are expressed in nominal terms

Realized Oil Price Scenarios Realized oil price is defined as an average realized crude oil and
condensate price. In UCube base case realized condensate price is equal
to realized crude oil price

RAHUL VERMA
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
ONGC
24
 Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering
global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers, investors,
investment banks, organizations, and governments.

Headquarters: Rystad Energy, Fjordalléen 16, 0250 Oslo, Norway

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