E_EOR1_IDS VU Amsterdam

2024-2025 Yicong Lin

P-I, W-1 Sep 5, 2024

Exercise 1
For each of the following experiments, describe the sample space S.

1. Roll a die five times.

2. Count the number of insect-damaged leaves on a plant.

3. Measure the household income (in e) in the Netherlands.

4. Record the weights of 10-day-old pandas.

5. Observe the proportion of defectives in a shipment of electronic components.

Solution: 1. S = {1, 2, ..., 6}5 = (ω1 , . . . , ω5 ) : ωi ∈ {1, 2, ..., 6}, i = 1, 2, ..., 5 ; 2. S = N = {0, 1, 2, . . .};


3. S = R+ ∪ {0}; 4. S = R+ ; 5. S = [0, 1]. ■

Exercise 2
We toss a coin three times. For this experiment, we choose the following sample space:

S = {HHH, THH, HTH, HHT, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT},

where H represents heads and T represents tails.

1. Write down the set of outcomes of corresponding to each of the following events:

(a) A: throw tails exactly two times;

(b) B: throw tails at least two times;

(c) C: tails did not appear before a head appeared;

(d) D: the first throw results in tails.

2. Write down the set of outcomes corresponding to each of the following events:

(a) A∁ ;

(b) A ∪ (C ∩ D);

(c) A ∩ D∁ .

Solution: 1. (a) A = {TTH, THT, HTT};

(b) B = {TTH, THT, HTT, TTT};

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 (c) C = {HHH, HTH, HHT, HTT};

(d) D = {THH, TTH, THT, TTT}.

2. (a) A∁ = {HHH, THH, HTH, HHT, TTT};

(b) A ∪ (C ∩ D) = A ∪ ∅ = A;

(c) A ∩ D∁ = {HTT}.
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Exercise 3
How many different sets of initials can be formed if every person has one surname and

1. exactly two given names,

2. either one or two given names,

3. either one or two or three given names?

Solution: 1. 263 ; 2. 262 + 263 ; 3. 262 + 263 + 264 . ■

Exercise 4
In the wizarding world, approximately 1 in 90 pregnancies results in twins. Of these, about one-third
are identical (sharing the same genes), while the remaining two-thirds are fraternal (with different genes).
Identical twins are necessarily of the same sex, with male and female being equally likely. For fraternal twins,
each child is equally likely to be male or female. Let

A = {a wizard pregnancy results in twin females},

B = {a wizard pregnancy results in identical twins},

C = {a wizard pregnancy results in twins}.

Solution: A ∩ B ∩ C = {a wizard pregnancy results in identical twin females}. We have

1 1 1 1
P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = · · = .
90 3 2 540

Exercise 5
In a game of poker, five players are each dealt with five cards from a deck of 52 cards. How many ways are
there to deal the cards?

2
Solution: Solution 1: Every player takes 5 from the remaining cards:
         
52 47 42 37 32
· · · · .
5 5 5 5 5

Solution 2: Take 25 cards out first. Out of the chosen 25 cards, each takes 5.
         
52 25 20 15 10
· · · · .
25 5 5 5 5

Exercise 6
In the game of dominoes, each piece is marked with two numbers, and the pieces are symmetrical, meaning
the order of the numbers does not matter. For example, (1, 2) is considered the same as (2, 1). How many
distinct pieces can be formed using the numbers 1, 2, . . . , n, where n ∈ Z+ ?

Solution: Solution 1:  
n n(n + 1)
n + = pieces.
|{z} 2 2
identical | {z }
distinct

Solution 2: It can be viewed as sampling with replacement and without order. Therefore, identical numbers
can be allowed.    
n+2−1 n+1 n(n + 1)
= = .
2 2 2
Solution 3:

1 2 ··· n
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) · · · (1, n)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) · · · (2, n)
.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .
n (n, 1) (n, 2) · · · (n, n)
Taking the upper triangular part of matrix leads to

n(n + 1)
1 + 2 + 3 + ··· + n = .
2

Exercise 7
Prove the binomial formula:
n  
X n k n−k
n
(x + y) = x y , ∀n ∈ N, x, y ∈ R. (1)
k
k=0

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Proof
(x + y)n = (x + y)(x + y) · · · (x + y) .
| {z }
n factors

From each factor, we pick either x or y (but not both). For k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n, there are n
ways to choose


k

exactly k of the x’s and each such choice yields the term xk y n−k . Summing all the cases leads to the binomial
formula. ■

Exercise 8
The first three digits of a university telephone exchange are 520. If all sequences of the remaining four digits
are equally likely, what is the probability that a randomly selected university phone number contains seven
distinct digits?

Solution: There are in total 104 7-digit phone numbers, there are 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 = 840 distinct 7-digit numbers
(after excluding 5,2,0).

840
P {contains 7 distinct digits} = 4 = 0.084.
10
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Exercise 9
A closet contains n pairs of shoes. If an even number k of shoes are chosen completely at random, where
k < n, what is the probability that no matching pairs are selected?

Solution: Since there are no matching pairs, the k shoes must from k different pairs. There are n
ways


k

of choosing k different pairs. From each pair, there are 2 ways of selecting a shoe(left or right). Since there
are k pairs, we have 2k possibilities. Moreover, there are 2n
k ways of choosing k shoes out of 2n shoes.

n

k
k ·2
P no matching pairs = 2n
.


k

Exercise 10
A fair coin is tossed five times.

1. What is the probability of getting a sequence of three heads?

2. What is the probability of getting at least one head?

Solution: 1. Note that getting a sequence of three heads may include getting a sequence of four or five
heads. In other words: HHH must appear, and we allow for more than three heads.

• exactly 3 heads in sequence =⇒ 5 ways;

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 • exactly 4 heads in sequence =⇒ 2 ways;

• exactly 5 heads in sequence =⇒ 1 way.

To sum up,
5+2+1 1
P(getting a sequence of 3 heads) = 5
= .
2 4
1 31
2. P(at least 1 head) = 1 − P(no head at all) = 1 − = . ■
32 32

Exercise 11
Select two numbers in (0, 1) completely at random. Compute the probability that their sum is less than 7/5.

n 7o
Solution: Let x and y be the numbers chosen in (0, 1), let A = (x, y) : x + y ≤ , S = (0, 1)2 . By the
5
geometric interpretation of probability, we have

area of A
P(A) = = 0.82.
area of S

Exercise 12
Let A and B be two events. Some quick questions:

1. P(A) = 2/3, P(B) = 1/6, and P(A ∩ B) = 1/9. What is P(A ∪ B)?

2. P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = 1/2, and P(A ∪ B) = 3/4. What is P(A ∩ B) and P A∁ ∩ B ∁ ?

3. P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2. What is P A∁ ∩ B ?

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Solution: 1. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = .
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1 1
2. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∪ B) = , P A∁ ∩ B ∁ = P((A ∪ B)∁ ) = 1 − P(A ∪ B) = .


12 4
1
3. P A∁ ∩ B = P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = .


5
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Exercise 13
Let A and B be two events with P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.3. Determine the expressions
and corresponding probability values for the following events:

1. A or B;

2. either A or B;

3. at least one of A or B;

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 4. at most one of A or B.

Solution: 1. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.7 + 0.5 − 0.3 = 0.9.

2. By the inclusion-exclusion formula, we obtain

P(A∁ B ∪ AB ∁ ) = P(A∁ B) + P(AB ∁ ) − P(A∁ B ∩ AB ∁ )

= P(B) − P(A ∩ B) + P(A) − P(A ∩ B)

= P(A) + P(B) − 2P(A ∩ B)

= 0.7 + 0.5 − 2 · 0.3

= 0.6.

3. P(A ∪ B) = 0.9.

4. P at most one of A or B = 1 − P(both A and B) = 1 − P(A ∩ B) = 0.7.

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Exercise 14
Let A and B be two events with P(A) = 1/3 and P B ∁ = 1/4. Is the statement that A and B are disjoint

True or False? Provide a brief explanation or counterexample to support your answer.

Solution: False. Suppose it is true, then P(A ∩ B) = 0. Since

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∪ B)

 
1 1
= + 1− − P(A ∪ B)
3 4
= 0,

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we have P(A ∪ B) = ∈
/ [0, 1]. ■
12

Exercise 15
The weather forecaster states that there is a 25% chance of rain on Saturday and a 25% chance of rain on
Sunday. Is the claim that the probability of rain over the weekend is exactly 50% True or False? Provide a
brief explanation or counterexample to support your answer.

Solution: False. By the inclusion-exclusion formula, we obtain

P(rain on Sat. or Sun.) = P(rain on Sat) + P(rain on Sun.) − P(rain on both Sat. and Sun.)

≤ 25% + 25%

= 50%.

which is not necessary to be exactly 50%. ■

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Exercise 16
Show that P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

Proof Use the inclusion- exclusion formula repeatedly.

• P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B ∪ C) − P(A ∩ (B ∪ C));

• P(B ∪ C) = P(B) + P(C) − P(B ∩ C).

• P(A ∩ (B ∪ C)) = P (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ C) − P((A ∩ B) ∩ (A ∩ C)) = P(A ∩ B) +

P(A ∩ C) − P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

To sum up, we have

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C),

which completes the proof. ■