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Climate change adaptation and mitigation

This document discusses the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the food sector, emphasizing the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture to ensure food security and sustainable development. It outlines the significant impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods, particularly in developing countries, while highlighting the interconnectedness of agriculture and climate change. The publication also identifies policy options and mechanisms necessary for effective responses to climate change in the agricultural sector, aiming for a balance between food production and environmental sustainability.

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9 views

Climate change adaptation and mitigation

This document discusses the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the food sector, emphasizing the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture to ensure food security and sustainable development. It outlines the significant impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods, particularly in developing countries, while highlighting the interconnectedness of agriculture and climate change. The publication also identifies policy options and mechanisms necessary for effective responses to climate change in the agricultural sector, aiming for a balance between food production and environmental sustainability.

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bansalnaveen2122
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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION - CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FOOD SECTOR ‘Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAQ) Natural Resources Management and Environment Department This publication reproduces one of the discussion papers of the High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Biocneray, FAO, Rome, Italy, 3-5 June 2008 (www.fao.org/foodclimate). Should this study be revisited today, the author would define the implementation periods as follows: “short term” would be up to 2015, which is the time the international community requires for new climate agreements; “medium term” would be from 2015 to 2020, which is the run-up to the beginning of the new rules, as well as to implementation and to taking further the future role of agriculture in climate agreements; “long term” would be beyond 2020, which is the time for full implementation of the new rules, including the role of agriculture ‘ubiello, F 2012. Climate change adaptation and mitigation: challenges and opportunites in the food sector. Natural Resources Management and Environment Department, FAO, Rome. Prepared for the High-level conference on world food security: the challenges of climate change aud bioenergy, Rome, 345 June 2008, ‘The designations employed and the presentation of material inthis information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the pat ofthe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) conceming the legal or development status of any county, tetory, city or area rf its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific ‘companies or products of manufactures, whether or aot these have been patented, does tot imply that ‘these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned, The views expressed inthis information produet are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of FAO. [All rights reserved. FAO encourages the seproduction and dissemination of material in this information prodit. Non-commercial uses wil be authorize fre of charge, upon request. Reproduction for resale of ‘other commercial purposes, including educational purposes, may incur fees. Applications for permission to reproduce or disseminate FAO copyright materials, and all queries concerning, rights and licences, should be addressed by e-mail to copyrightatfao.org or to the: (Chief, Publishing Policy and Support Branch Office of Knowledge Exchange, Research and Extension AO Viale dete Terme di Caracalla (00153 Rome, Italy ‘© FAO 2012 Cover photo: @ PAO/Munir Uz Zaman TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 2 2 15 W a 18 19 20 a ACRONYMS INTRODUCTION Increased and new vulnerabilities Agriculture and global climate change Adaptation and mitigation strategies Global challenges and key persperctives Climate responses and food security LINKING ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION WITHIN CLIMATE POLICY ‘MECHANISMS POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS Expanding the role of adaptation and mitigation within development policies Data, research and operational requirements Changing the decision environment POLICY OPTIONS Short-term (current to 2012) Medium-term (current (o 2020-2030) Longer term (current to 2050 and beyond) GLOSSARY OF TERMS REFERENCES List of tables and boxes Box 1 3. Keyimpacts of climate change Box 2 8 Adaptation strategies in agriculture Box 3 9. Synergies in adaptation and mitigation Box 4 14 Actions needed to facilitate adaptation responses Box 5 16 Barriers to mitigation Table 1 5 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emis Table 2 6 Mitigation potential in agriculture and forestry in 2030 a 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIR. Afforestation and Reforestation CDM. Clean Development Mechanism CGIAR Consultative Group on Intemational Agricultural Research, FR Forest Restoration IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change MDGs Millenium Development Goals [REDD Reducing Emissions ftom Deforestation and forest Degradation SFM. Sustainable Forest Management including UNFCCC. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change INTRODUCTION Agriculture and the future of global food security figure very importantly in climate change negotiations. As stated in Article Il of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCO), the goal is to ensure stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at @ level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, “Such a level,” it mandates, “should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” Agriculture, rural livelihoods, sustainable management of natural resources and food security are inextricably linked within the development and climate change challenges of the twenty-first century. Indeed, not only is food security an explicit concem under climate change; successful adaptation and mitigation responses in agriculture can only be achieved within the ecologic, economic and social sustainability goals set forth by the World Food Summit, the Millennium Development Goals and the UNFCC The scope of this paper is to identify a strategy for climate change responses in agriculture that are consistent with safeguarding food security, rural livelihoods and the provision of environmental services. Special focus is given to existing and potential future mechanisms necessary to support adaptation, mitigation, technology cransfer and financing at national, regional and international levels. ‘The most important challenge for agriculture in the twenty-first century is the need to feed increasing numbers of people ~ most of whom are in developing countries ~ while at the same time, conserving the local and global environment in the face of limited soil and water resources and growing pressures associated with socio-economic development and climate change. Projected population and socio-economic growth will double current food demand by 2050, To meet this challenge in developing countries, cereal yields need to increase by 40 percent, net irrigation water requirements by 40-50 percent, and 100-200 million ha of additional land may be needed, largely in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, Food insecurity will continue to be a scrious issue in coming decades, Despite significant projected overall reductions in hunger projected by the end of the century ~ from the current 850 million to about 200-300 million - many developing countries will continue to experience serious poverty and food insecurity, due to localized high population growth rates, poor socio-economic capacity and continued natural resource degradation, By the end of the century, 40 to 50 percent of all ‘undemourished are expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa, Projections indicate that MDGs for undemourishment will not be met, despite robust projected economic growth, Indeed, prevalence of hunger may indeed be halved, but not before 2030, unless additional policy measures are implemented, Climate change will superimpose itselfon these existing trends, significantly increasing production risk and rural vulnerability, particularly in regions that already suffer from chronic soil and water resource scarcity, high exposure to climatic extremes including droughts and flooding, poverty and hunger (see Box 1). Climate change pressures will be compounded by a pronounced lack of sufficient knowledge, infrastructure, organization and resources that local populations and national governments need to cope with and adapt to climate change. This will be especially true in many poor tropical arid and semicarid regions, increasing the risk of large overall negative impacts on food security, natural resources and rural livelihoods in coming decades and further increasing the gap between developing and developed countries. Increased and new vulnerabilities How resilient is the agricultural system in the face of future socio-economic pressures and climate change challenges of the next decades? To answer this, itis important to consider all relevant local, regional and international aspects determining the world food situation, from production to trade and supply. Indeed, as has been seen, the recent increases in food prices and their immediate negative impacts on food security demonstrate that the current system is already, unexpectedly, quite vulnerable, Most importantly, one of the main factors identified as the cause of the current commodity cost crisis ~ climate extremes that have reduced production in key exporting countries - is the very factor that is projected to increase in frequency and severity in coming decades. Although climate change will result in both challenges and opportunities for agriculture, itis well understood that factors that may have led to the current food security crisis are likely to multiply under climate change. In particular, climate change may further enhance the food import dependence of most developing countries. Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and fisherfolk in developing countries may not be able to cope with climate change effectively, due to reduced adaptive capacity and higher climate vulnerability. Under such conditions, pressure 0 cultivate marginal land or to adopt unsustainable cultivation practices as yields, drop is likely, and may increase land degradation, water scarcity and endanger biodiversity. This vicious dynamic may lead to large-scale migrations, as rural poor populations abandon regions that no longer can support livelihoods, food and fuel, Yet, in general, impact risk thresholds of food production systems are poorly represented in current impact assessments of agriculture under climate change. This has led to a dangerous complacency based on the assumption that impacts and related Box 1 Key impacts of climate change Global warming. Early decades of the twenty-first century will see a moderate warming of 1-2°G, resulting in reduced eroa yields in seasonally dry and tropical regions, while crop and pasture yields in temperate regions may benefit. Further warming in the second half of the century will negatively affect all regions, although agriculture in many developing countries in ‘semi-tropical and tropical regions will bear the brunt of the effects. Extreme climate events. Increased frequency and severity of extreme climate events, such as more heat stress, droughts and flooding, is expected in coming decades due to climate change. It will increase negative impacts on agriculture, forestry and fisheries in all regions, In particular, it will modify the risks of fires, and pest and pathogen outbreaks, with negative consequences for food, fibre and forestry. Undernourishment. The number of underourished is likely to increase by 5-170 million people by 2080, with respect to a baseline with no climate change. Even small amounts of warming will increase risk of hunger in poor developing countries, due to negative impacts on food production and availabilty, Most of the increases are projected in sub-Saharan Africa, Food stability utilization and access. Additional negative impacts of climate change on food security, with the potential of reducing access to and utilization of food in many regions already vulnerable today, are expected but have not been quantified. In particular, stability of food supply is likely to be disrupted by more frequent and severe climate extremes, Utilization of food may be affected negatively by increases in crop, livestock and human pests and diseases, as well as by reducee water availability and water quality, of importance for food preparation. crises will not become pronounced until the second half of this century. However, negative surprises such as continued increase in frequency of extreme events linked droughts and flooding, and increased incidence of crop pests and diseases are likely, portending large impacts on food systems as carly as the 2020s-2030s, ‘These are reasons for serious concem, especially in terms of significant negative effects on the most vulnerable, who are located in developing countries. At the same time, developed countries may face larger risks directly and indirectly, due to increased global vulnerability from climate change. This implies that adaptation and mitigation strategies to limit damage from climate change in developing countries must be consistent with, build upon and provide new direction for existing and future development plans focusing on rural poverty and agricultural development at all relevant scales, from national to international Agriculture and global climate change Agriculture is not only a fundamental human activity at risk from climate change, it is a major driver of environmental and climate change itself. It has the largest human impact on land and water resources, About 1.4 billion ha of arable land (10 percent of total ice-free land) are used for crop cultivation and an additional 2.5 billion ha are used for pasture. Roughly four billion ha are forested land, five percent of which is used for plantation forestry. Two billion tonnes of grains are produced yearly for food and feed, providing two-thirds of total protein intake by humans. About ‘ten percent of total world cereal supply is traded internationally. In addition, 150 nillion tonnes of fish and other aquatic products are consumed annually. Aquatic products contribute 50 peres islands and other developing countries. In addition to land resources, agriculture is a major user of water. Over 200 million ha of arable land is under inrigation, utilizing 2 500 billion m! of water annually, representing 75 percent of fresh water resources withdrawn from aquifers, Jakes and rivers by human activity. Irrigation sustains a large portion of total food supply - about 40 percent in the case of cereals. Finally, significant quantities of chemical inputs are applied to achieve high yields in intensive production systems including about 100 million tonnes of nitrogen used annually, leading to significant regional pollution. Asa result of these large-scale activities, agriculture is a significant contributor to land degradation and, in particular, a major emitter of greenhouse gases. It emits into the atmosphere 13-15 billion tonnes CO,¢ per year, about a third of the total from human activities. Overall, agriculture is responsible for 25 percent of carbon dioxide (largely from deforestation), 50 percent of methane (rice and enteric fermentation), and more than 75 percent of N,0 (largely from fertilizer application) emitted annually by human activities If emissions of greenhouse gases, including those from agriculture, are not controlled in the coming decades, continued growth of their atmospheric concentrations is projected to result in severe climate change throughout the twrenty- first century. If “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system is to be avoided in coming decades and warming is to be limited to “acceptable” fenaperature increases, then stabilization of atmospheric concentrations must be achieved. This will require significant cuts in global emissions, starting now and certainly no later than 2020-2030, Inparticular, a number of mitigation strategies in the agriculture and forestry sectors have been identified as useful in achieving the goal of stabilization of atmospheric or more of total animal protein intake in some small ‘concentrations between 450-550 ppm CO,’ These include reduced deforestation and degradation of tropical forests (REDD), sustainable forest management (SFM) and forest restoration (FR), including afforestation and reforestation (AJR). In agriculture, ‘they involve reduction of non-CO, gases through improved ctop and livestock management and agroforestry practices, enhanced soil carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via reduced tillage and soil biomass restoration. Table 1 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emi ions Global 50 Agyiclture 56 10-12% Methane 63) No ea) Forestry 8-10 15-20% Deforestation 68) ‘Decay and Peat oa) Table 2 indicates that technical mitigation potential achievable by a complex mix of actions in both the agriculture and forestry sector is significant. For comparison, it ranges between a third and a half of total mitigation required under a mid-range International Panel on Climate Change Special Reports on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) mitigation scenario. Most of the mitigation is achievable in the forestry sector, with important implications for climate policy options. Importantly, the total mitigation potentially achievable in the land-based sector is quite close to total emissions of the agriculture sector as a whole. If achieved, they would contribute to making this sector nearly carbon-neutra. 11 See ako Finoncal mechanisms for adaptation and mitigtion to climate change inthe food ard agriculture sector (HLCIOSIVFa, whieh is «companion pape to this on ay Ww Table 2 Mitigation potential in agriculture and forestry in 2030 Global 15-25 Agriculture 1550 Methane, N20 (03-15) Agroforestry (5-2) Aayicltual soils (05-18) Forest 25-12 EDD 04) seu 0-3) R os) Bioenergy 01-10 ‘Global reductions in 2030 coreszend to thase needed to achieve stabilization af atmosphere eancentations between 450-550 ppm CO, under a mid-range IPCC SRES, Adaptation and mitigation strategies Because of inertia with both the climate and socio-economic systems upon which greenhouse gas emissions depend, we are bound to face a degree of climate change and its related negative impacts, regardless of the mitigation strategy chosen. However, the sooner the mitigation activities begin, the lower the likely impacts. Nonetheless, adaptation will be needed to protect livelihoods and food security in ‘many developing countries that are expected to be the most vulnerable, even under ‘moderate climate change. ‘This indicates that the overall challenge of climate policy will be to find the efficient mix of mitigation and adaptation solutions that limit the overall impacts of climate change. This includes recognizing that many mutually re-enforcing synergies exist between specific mitigation and adaptation solutions that can lead to ‘more efficient allocation of “climate response” resources. Importantly, many of these synergies exist in the forestry and agriculture sectors and are of great relevance to rural livelihoods in developing countries. i Ww Global challenges and key perspectives Climate change brings critical new perspectives to important global challenges relevant to food security and rural livelihoods. Mainstreaming climate change issues into development is a necessary step of overall development policy, but it is not sufficient. To be sufficient, sustainable development policies must also be in order to include important new temporal and spatial scales that have become relevant only because of climate change. reformulat Actions to limit damage from climate change need to be implemented now in order to be effective. Mitigation actions involve direct reduction of anthropogenic emissions or enhancement of carbon sinks that are necessary for limiting long-term climate damage. Adaptation is necessary to limit potential risks of the unavoidable residual climate change now and in coming decades, Importantly, there are significant differences in the policy nature underlying adaptation and mitigation actions. The benefits of adaptation choices will be realized almost immediately but will matter most under moderate climate change, perhaps up to about mid-century. By contrast, benefits of mitigation may only be realized decades from now, becoming relevant ‘towards the end of the century. It follows that a significant challenge of climate policy is to identify and then develop instruments that allow for a portfolio of adaptation and mitigation strategies that are effective in time and space and focus on balancing actions across the most appropriate sectors, and within the chosen scope of specific climate response policies. In the case of a focused priority on food security and rural vulnerability, a number of limitations on the usefulness of certain mitigation strategies may emerge with respect to adaptation requirements Onc important example is related to bioenergy and biofuel production which, as a mitigation strategy, may have benefits for rural incomes and thus development. However, in order to prevent scrious negative repercussions on food prices, ecosystem functions including biodiversity and carbon cycling, and local food availability, they need to be planned at the appropriate regional and local scales, and in conjunction with focused rural development policy. All four dimensions of food security will be negatively affected by climate change in the coming decades. While adaptation strategies that minimize expected impacts on access, stability and utilization of food resources involve largely local- to regional-scale actions, safeguarding food availability also requires a global perspective, Climate change adaptation strategies should aim at maintaining, ot even increasing, food production in key exporting developed and developing regions, or in regions key (o regional food security. Any significant change in food production in these areas, including change resulting from climate change impact, has potential to affect global and regional availability, stability and access to food through direct and indirect repercussions on international and local markets.* Box 2 Adaptation strategies in agriculture (© Altering inputs, varieties and species for increased resistance to heat shock and drought, flooding and salinization; altering fertilizer rates to maintain grain or fruit quality; altering amounts and timing of irrigation and other water management; altering the timing or location of cropping activities ‘© Managing river basins for more efficient delivery of irrigation services and prevent water logging, erosion and nutrient leaching; making wider use of technologies to “harvest” water and conserve soil moisture; use and transport water more effectively, © Diversitying income through the integration of activities such as livestock raising, fish production in rice paddies, ete. ‘© Making wider use of integrated pest and pathogen management, developing and using varieties and species resistant to pests and diseases; improving ouarantine capabilities ‘and monitoring programmes. © Increasing use of climate forecasting to reduce production risk. © Matching livestock stacking rates with pasture production, altered pasture rotation, modification of grazing times, alteration of forage and animal speciesforeeds, integration within livestock/crop systems including the use of adapted forage crops, re-assessing fertilizer applications and the use of supplementary feeds and concentrates. © Undertaking changes in forest management, including hardwood softwood species mix, timber growth and harvesting patterns, rotation periods shifting to species or areas more productive under new climatic conditions, planning landscapes to minimize fre and insect damage, adjusting fire management systems; initiating prescribed burning that reduces forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks as a non-chemical insect control; and adjusting harvesting schedules. © Introducing forest conservation, agroforestry and forest-based enterprises for diversification of rural incomes. ‘© Altering cateh size and effort and improving the environment where breeding occurs; reducing the level of fishing in order to sustain yields of fish stocks 2 Although important large-scale polity and economic ceckions are made atthe national and intemationl lve {incusing those fr bioenergy poi, trade barre” policies and subses that have sgrifeant impact on food Security elsewhere anda local and regional sales) they tenet within ie seope ef this paper and will ot be

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