Trends and Patterns of Child Sex Ratio

and Sex Ratio at Birth

in Jammu and Kashmir

Bashir Ahmad Bhat

Population Research Centre

Department of Economics
University of Kashmir
Srinagar-190006
MARCH-2016

0
 Preface

This report examines an issue of new concern: the low and declining proportion of girls in the child
population of Jammu and Kashmir. The concern is not new and it is now almost 20 years that we
came to know that the child sex ratio in India and many other States has started to decline and this
high masculine child sex ratio of the Indian population had been noted with concern by the Noble
Laureate Amartaya Sen. It is not only the low female to male ratio, but also its steady and
continuous decline, the regional variation in it and its likely correlates that have attracted
considerable attention. The attention covers both academic and policy discourse and has increased
our understanding of the problem considerably. These analyses have more or less established that
the high masculine child sex ratios are a discrimination against the girls, giving rise to excess
female over male mortality and under enumeration of girls. Since, 1991, the imbalance in child sex
ratio is largely attributed to female feticide. Now if reasons for declining child sex ratio in India are
already known, then what is the need for the present report? The decline in child sex ratio in Jammu
and Kashmir is different than what can be observed in other states of the country. In 2001, J&K had
one of the highest child sex ratio but in 2011, it had one of the lowest child sex ratio. No other State
in the country had witnessed a sharp decline in its child sex ratio as has been witnessed by Jammu
and Kashmir. Further, while, the proportion of children ages 0-6 years had declined throughout the
country, but only J&K is the only State in the country which has experienced an increase in the
child population. This is in contradiction to the fertility estimates of given by the Sample
Registration System, the sister concern of Census. So the two sets of data from the same
organization contradict each other. While there are regional variations in the child sex ratio in
various states of the country but the magnitude of variation in these States is not as large as in J&K.
The new sources of data now make it crystal clear, that the sex ratios at birth were never so low as
was portrayed by census, 2011. It is in this backdrop, that the present study tried to unknot some of
these issues and tries to answer the basic question, what led to the sharp decline in child sex ratio
and sex ration at birth in Jammu and Kashmir.

I am highly thankful to the Statistics Division of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare who
accepted my proposal to undertake this study as part of Annual Work Plan, 2016-17. I am extremely
thankful to Smt. Navanita Gogoi Director (Stat) MOHFW, New Delhi for her keen interest and
constant encouragement in completing this study. The preparation of this report was greatly assisted by
colleagues at Population Research Centre especially Mr. S. Khursheed Ahmad, Muneer Ahmad,
Imtiyaz Ahmad and Mrs. Farida Qadri. I am extremely appreciative and highly thankful to all of them.
Special thanks are due to Mr. Ali Mohammad (Sr. Assistant) and Ms. Shahida (Jr. Assistant) for
providing the official assistance.

Bashir Ahmad Bhat

Date:28-02-2017

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 CONTENTS

Page No
Preface 1
Contents 2
List of Tables 3
CHAPTER-1 Introduction 4
1.1 Background 4
1.2 Review of Literature 6
1.3 Objectives 8
1.4 Sources of Data 8
CHAPTER-2 Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir 10
2.1 Trends in Sex Ratio 10
2.2 Regional Pattern of Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir 12
2.3 Rural Urban Differentials in Sex Ratio 14
CHAPTER-3 Child Sex Ratio 16
3.1 Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir 17
3.2 District wise Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in J&K 18
3.3 Rural-Urban Differences in Child Sex Ratio 18
3.4 Tehsil wise Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir 21
3.5 Rural Urban Differences in Child Sex Ratio at Tehsil Level 26
CHAPTER-4 Sex Ratio at Birth 27
4.1 Sex Ratio at Very Young Ages 27
4.1.1 The impact of migration 29
4.1.2 Crude Birth Rate 29
4.1.3 Sex differential in child mortality 31
4.1.3 The Issue of under enumeration of girls or over enumeration 33
of boys
4.2 What does Age Distribution of Child Population Reveal 36
4.3 What does Age Specific Child Sex Ratio Reveal 38
4.5 The Issue of Over Reporting of Children 39
4.6 What Actually Happened During Census Enumeration in 2011? 41
4.7 Latest Estimates of Sex Ratio at Birth 44
CHAPTER-5 Conclusion 47
References 49

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 List of Tables

Table No. Table Name Page No

Table 1 Sex Ratio of India and Jammu and Kashmir Since 1901 11
Table 2 District Wise Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir, 2001-2011 13
Table 3 Child Sex Ratio of India and Jammu and Kashmir, 1981-2011 17
Table 4 District Wise Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in Jammu and Kashmir, 2001-2011 20
Table 5 Tehsil Wise Child Sex Ratio of J&K by Sex Ratio Category 2011 22
Table 6 Tehsil Wise Rural Urban Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in J&K, 2011 23
Table 7 District wise Child Sex Ratio at age 0, age 1 and age 6 in Jammu and 28

Table 8 Kashmir 2011Rate in J&K and India, 2005-2010

Crude Birth 30
Table 9 Table 9: District Wise Crude Birth Rate Based in Jammu and Kashmir 31

Table 10 Using
Infant2011 Census
Mortality by Reversal
in Jammu Survivaland
and Kashmir Method
India, 2005-2010 32
Table 11 Table 10: District Wise Percentage of Child Population (0-6) in Jammu & 34

Table 12 Kashmir 2001-2011

Percentage Distribution of Child Population (0-6) by Single Age in Jammu 37

Table 13 and Kashmir,

Age 2011 Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir, 2011
Specific Child 38
Table 14 Table 14: Sex Ratio at Birth as per Civil Registration System in Jammu 40

Table 15 and Kashmir,

Table 2006-2014
15: HMIS Sex Ratio at Birth in Jammu and Kashmir 2010-2016 45

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 CHAPTER-1
Introduction
1.1 Background
India’s economic growth rate is increasing but its population of girls in relation to boys is
declining. Some of women occupy the highest positions in our society; more girls go to school
today than ever before, young women are entering good professions closed to them in the past.
Yet, a girl is still considered a burden. The most skewed sex ratios are from states with the
highest economic growth rate. Perhaps, education and economic growth have not changed
mindsets; have not touched a patriarchal structure that values men and women differently. In
Indian society preference given to son. The deficit of women in India’s population has been
documented ever since the first decennial enumeration of people was conducted in the British-
occupied parts of India in the late nineteenth Century, the first census of 1871, India has
consistently shown an abnormal sex ratio (940 women for every 1000 men). Even in the 2011
census, the situation is not changed; the sex ratio is same as that of 1871, that is, 940 women
for every 1000 men. Thus, the position remains unchanged even after 68 years of
independence.

Girl child is the future of every nation. The major cause of the decrease of the female birth
ratio in country is considered to be the violent treatments meted out to the girl child at the time
of the birth. A large number of discriminatory practices for female including female feticide,
female infanticide, female genital mutilation, son idolization, early marriage and dowry have
buried the future of the nation. Such discriminatory practices have greatly influenced the health
and well-being of a girl child, resulting in a higher mortality rate. The government of India
lunch "Beti Bachao" campaign. It is supported by human rights groups, non-governmental
organizations, and state local government in India. The act has also gained pace at international
level. The main aim is the campaign is stopping the gender-selective abortion of female
foeteus, which has skewed the population towards a significant under-representation of girls.
Female foeticide has led to a sharp drop in the ratio of girls born in contrast to boy infants in
some states in India. Ultrasound technology has made it possible for pregnant women and their
families to learn the gender of a fetus early in a pregnancy.

Indian census has the tradition of bringing out information by gender composition on various
aspects of the population. Changes in gender composition largely reflect the underlying social,

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economic and cultural patterns of the society in different ways. The dowry, child marriage,
brutal murder of young brides and suicides committed by the young girls are said to be some
examples.

The results of 2001 Census pertaining to Child Sex ratio in a Muslim Majority State surprised
everyone as it was believed that female infanticide is generally not prevalent among Muslims.
However, the most surprising was the sharp decline in child sex ratio in those districts which
had the highest child sex ratio in 2001. Once the preliminary results of Census 2011 were
released, this decline of child sex ratio in the State particularly in Kashmir received a lot of
media attention both nationally and internationally. Though, initially the State government,
particularly, the Directorate of Health services had certain reservations to accept the Census
2011 Census child sex ratio and a fresh survey was ordered by the department of health
services (Ali, Muddasir, 2011): but the results of that survey were not made public. I also
raised certain doubts about the authenticity of census data pertaining to child population and
published an article in the “Greater Kashmir” (Bhat, Bashir Ahmad, 2011). I received so many
comments from the public in general and some officials mentioning that the doubts that I have
raised about the quality of data are genuine. It was also during this period that my article was
seen by Christopher Z. Guilmotoa a internationally renowned expert on child sex ratio and on
the basis of our exchange, he got convinced that there is something strange going on in Jammu
and Kashmir and based on my observations and his own preliminary analysis of 2011 Census
data of J&K, he decided not to include 19 districts in his district wise estimates of fertility and
sex ratio at birth which got published in the Journal of Economic and Political Weekly
(Christophe Z Guilmoto, S Irudaya Rajan, 2013). He also suggested that there is a need to
evaluate the age sex data of Jammu and Kashmir before it can be used for research and policy
and planning purpose. Similarly, while examining the fertility results obtained from 2011
Census data at district level, Sanjay Kumar and K.M. Sathyanarayana concluded that a clear
increase in crude birth rate can be observed for most districts of Jammu and Kashmir and
therefore it is difficult to conclusively comment on data quality, yet the impression one gets is
that the data is suspect and needs further investigation (Sanjay Kumar and K.M.
Sathyanarayana, 2013).

Now that the age and sex data by single age has been made available by the Census, and this
set of data can be used to understand and analyze in depth the child sex ratio in Jammu and

5
Kashmir. The age specific child sex ratio will help us to throw more light on the dynamic of
decline in child sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir.

1.2 Review of Literature

Much of the literature in Indian sex ratios has focused on a North-South dichotomy in sex
ratios (Dyson & Moore 1983, Agarwal 1986 and Sen 2003). This literature has argued that the
northern and western regions of the country not only have more rigid norms of female
seclusion, particularly related to participation in economic activities outside the home, but also
have marriage customs such as large dowry payments that make girls an economic burden on
the family. In contrast, women in the South and East enjoy greater autonomy and higher social
status within the family. These cultural differences manifest themselves in the form of lower
sex ratios at birth in the northern and western states than in the southern and eastern states. Sex
selective abortions and son preference attitude are also identified as determinants of declining
sex ratio in certain studies related to Asian countries (D’Souza & Chen 1980; Park & Cho 1995
and Dasgupta &MariBhat1997). These studies attributed excess female mortality to a general
preference for sons, which in turn traced it to either higher expected return to the labour of
male over female children or anticipated old-age support from sons within the patrilineal
kinship system (Berik & Bilginsoy 2000). Visariya (1969) also claimed that ‘excess female
literacy’ is the basic reason for declining sex ratio and excess female mortality in turn is the
result of female infanticide, female foeticide, neglect of females and maternal mortality.
Deolalikar, Anil B., Hasan R, & Somanathan, R.(2009), examined the changes in the regional
patterns of juvenile sex ratio in rural India from the censuses of 1991 and 2001. It was found
that while sex differentials in childhood mortality were substantial and widely distributed in
India at the time of the 1961 Census, they were even more so by the time of the 1971 census.
Yet another recent study of spatial variations in sex ratio in the context of India Klasen and
Wink.C (2003), where they found labour force participation rate and literacy rate of women
significant in lessening sex ratio; while increasing recourse to sex selective abortions worsen it.
Chakraborty & Sinha (2008) examined the determinants of declining child sex ratio in India;
the study uses fixed effects model four decennial census data (1971-2001) across fifteen major
states found that the child sex ratio is inversely related to the spatial socio-economic
characteristics, in particular, female literacy rate and female economic activity rate; with
relatively higher elasticity coefficients for urban India.

6
The child female to male sex ratio, estimated for age group 0-6 years, for the country as a
whole dropped by 4.5% between 1981 and 2001 or from 971 to 927 girls per 1000 boys. To
fully understand the implications of the deficit of women, it is important to examine the
available recent data on sex ratio at birth and if girls are not allowed to be born, it is important
to understand why, when, which of the female children and what means are used to avoid
having daughters. Some evidence of sex ratio at birth becoming increasingly masculine is also
available from the recent sample registration surveys (SRS) and the National Sample Survey
(NSS) as well as the three rounds National Family Health Surveys. All these surveys have
reported around 110 boys per 100 girls at birth or at age 0. As per NFHS-2, the sex ratio at
birth in India was 106.9. It was 105.1 five years before as per NFHS-1.Interestingly, the sex
ratio at birth varies from 107 to 121 in different states of India; this clearly illustrates the reality
that in many parts of India, the female births are avoided successfully by using (or misusing)
the modern technology. Women with no sons are more likely to undergo these tests than other
women. In absence of hard data on Sample Registration of Birth (SRB) particularly from the
Civil Registration System, we had been assuming 105 male births of every 100 female births.
We have also assumed that the same has remained constant over time. There has, however,
been a possibility that SRB has changed over time in favor of males. The Sample Registration
system based sex-ratio at birth (over the 1981-90 period was 109.5 male births of every 100
female births). SRS data for the 1990s indicate further imbalance in SRB, it is being 111 male
births of every 100 female births. At the national level the ‘Child Sex Ratio’ (CSR) (in
Population aged 0-6 years) declined from 962 in 1981 to 972 in 2001. In the 2011 census child
sex-ratio had declined further by 9 points from a 927 in 2001 to 918 in 2011 (Census of
India:2011) In examining child sex ratio one should, however, concentrate on infant and child
mortality since they affect the child survival the most. The higher morbidity and low nutritional
status of girls. Girls tend to be brought for treatment at more critical stages of illness or taken
to less qualified doctors so their mortality even under treatment is likely greater. The higher
mortality of girls under 0-6 is largely responsible for the skewed sex ratio. Mathur (1995)
opined that after the neo-natal stage birth chances of survival for a male child are less than
those for a female child. Social factors such as health care, immunization ,nutrition of the
mother and child , and sanitation come into force and govern the survival prospects of an
infant. The widespread availability of abortion services also has adverse impact on women’s
health’ according to some estimates roughly 5 million abortions are performed annually in
India. The large majority of abortions are (about4.5 million) illegal. (Khan et al; 1989 &1995).

7
The Unicef findings are based on an analysis of Indian census data and are in line with a study
published by the British medical journal “The Lancet” which estimated that as many as 10
million female fetuses had been aborted in India over the past 20 years by families trying to
secure a male heir. Female babies are less likely to survive the first year than their male
counterparts, according to Unicef’s , “son-preference continues to persist leading to the neglect
of girls and their lack of access to nutrition, health and maternal care in these critical early
years,” the report said. In India, girls continue to be regarded as liabilities who saddle their
parents with the costs of expensive weddings and dowry payments, before moving to live with
their husband’s family. Boys are preferred because, traditionally, they remain in the family
home to look after the parents in their old age. Neither laws nor the government’s “Save the
Girl Child” campaign have had much impact in changing these perceptions. (Unicef, 2007).
Findings from NFHS-3 of Jammu and Kashmir reveal that there is a preference for sons in
Jammu and Kashmir is as strong as in parts of the country. About 23 percent of women wants
more sons than daughters, but only 3.1 percent want more daughters than sons. However, 80
percent of women would like to have at least one son and 76 percent want at least one
daughter. Some recent studies have shown that son preference has, in fact, increased alongside
lower fertility and rising economic and social welfare. Hence, it is important to further analyse
the nexus of economic, social and cultural factors that underlie daughter discrimination, thus
shifting the focus from son preference to daughter discrimination.

1.3 Objectives
1. To find out the decal variation in sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir
2. To analyze the district wise variation in sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir during the last
two decades.
3. To examine the Tehsil wise Child sex ratio (0-6) in Jammu and Kashmir during 2011..
4. To examine the district and residence wise child sex ratio (0-4), at age one and zero in the
State.
5. To find out the reasons of decline in the Child Sex Ratio as per Census 2011 in Jammu
and Kashmir.

1.4 Sources of Data

Census is the main source of data on sex ratio and child sex ratio and sex ratio at birth. So we
will use census data for analyzing the trends in general sex ratio and child sex ratio at district
level. But Census is conducted only once in 10 years. Data on sex ratio at birth is periodically
collected at the national level by the Civil Registration System and the Sample Registration

8
System (SRS). These reports are published annually by the Office of the Registrar General of
India. The Civil Registration System data is not reliable due to gross under-registration of
births but over the years its quality and cover age has improved. Now Health Management
Information System (HMIS) has been collecting information about sex ratio at birth for all the
births reported by it and this information is available for all the health facilities and home
deliveries and is uploaded on monthly basis since 2009-2010. HMIS covers more than 90
percent of births delivered in J&K and is probably the most reliable source of information on
sex ratio at birth.

Since the child sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir has drastically declined and it has raised
doubts about the quality of Census 2011 data, so we will try to analyze this issue by
supplementing data from Sample Registration System, Civil Registration System and National
Family Health Survey-3. HMIS data will be used to analyse the sex ratio at births at district
level to portray the recent trends in sex ratio at birth in Jammu and Kashmir.

Sex ratio, in this study is defined as the number of females per 1,000 males (which is the
opposite of the internationally used definition as males per 1 .000 females). Similarly, Child
Sex Ratio (CSR) is the number of girls to every 1000 boys in the 0-6 age group. Sex Ratio at
Birth (SRB) is defined as the number of girls born for every 1000 boys born.

9
 CHAPTER-2
Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir
The sex ratio of Indian population has always been of topical interest for the demographers,
social scientists, women’s groups, research scholars and various planners and policy makers.
Why is it that India has such uneven composition of population as compared to most of the
developed countries in the world? Several reasons are adduced to explain the consistently low
levels of sex ratio and their further decline in the country. Some of the important reasons
commonly put forward are listed below:
 Neglect of the girl child resulting in their higher mortality at younger ages
 High maternal mortality
 Sex selective female abortions
 Female infanticide
 Change in sex ratio at birth

2.1 Trends in Sex Ratio

India shares a distinctive feature of the south Asian and Chinese populations with regard to the
sex ratio - the centuries old deficit of females to males - the opposite of non-Asian countries. In
India the deficit is largely attributed to woman's lower status in society which has contributed
to their higher mortality in all ages up to 45. Of more serious concern to the country and
vocalised by women's groups in recent years is that the sex ratio, has been declining almost
consistently over the decades, except for a small improvement in 1981. The sex ratio for the
country as a whole, computed to be 972 in the 1901 Census, declined steadily to 930 by 1971,
rose marginally to 934 by 1981, but declined subsequently to 927 in the 1991 Census. The
overall sex ratio in the country improved from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011.

Jammu and Kashmir has always recorded a lesser sex ratio than the country as a whole (Table
1). The sex ratio has consistently declined from 882 in 1901 to 865 in 1931. The lowest sex
ratio during 1901-2001 was recorded in 1931. However, after 1931, it started improving and in
each decade during 1931-1961, it improved by 4-5 females. The sex ratio did not show any
change during 1951-61 and 1961-71, when during both the decades it was recorded at 878. The
1971-81 decade experienced the highest improvement in sex ratio when there was an addition
of 14 females per thousand males in the State. The sex ratio in the State touched the new height
of 900 during the 2001 Census and there was a further improvement of 8 women per thousand

10
men in the State. However, during 2011, the sex ratio has once again declined to 889. Thus
while the sex ratio in J&K has always been lower than the national average, however, the gap
between the two has narrowed down. There was a deficit of 90 women in J&K in 1901 as
compared to India but this deficit has come narrowed down to 33 women in 2001. However,
due to some decline in the sex ratio in J&K and some improvement in it at the national level,
the gap between the State sex ratio and national sex ratio has once again increased and
currently J&K has a deficit of 51 females per thousand males as compared to India.

Table 1: Sex Ratio of India and Jammu and Kashmir Since 1901
J&K INDIA Difference
Year T R U T Total Rural-Urban diff (J&K)
1901 882 888 809 972 -90 79
1911 876 886 799 964 -88 87
1921 870 879 803 955 -85 76
1931 865 876 784 950 -85 92
1941 869 881 790 945 -76 91
1951 873 882 823 946 -73 59
1961 878 884 844 941 -63 40
1971 878 882 860 930 -52 22
1981 892 897 875 934 -42 22
1991 NA NA NA 927 NA 0
2001 900 927 822 933 -33 105
2011 889 908 840 940 -51 68

Like other parts of the country, sex ratio in the rural areas has always remained higher than the
sex ratio in urban areas. Rural areas recorded a sex ratio of 889 in 1901 and it declined to 876
in 1931. However, since 1931, sex ratio started to improve in rural areas of the State and 2001
Census recorded the highest sex ratio of 927. However, during 2001-11 sex ratio declined to
908.

The sex ratio in urban areas in 1901 was 809 and it declined to 784 in 1931. The sex ratio
steadily improved in urban areas during 1931-1981 and the highest sex ratio of 875 in urban
areas in the State was recorded in 1981. While the overall sex ratio in the State declined
between 2001-2011 but the urban sex ratio improved from 822 in 2001 to 840 in 2011. The gap
between the sex ratio in rural and urban areas during 1901-1941 widened. The urban areas had
a deficit of 79 women per thousand men in 1901 and this deficit increased to 91 in 1941.
However, this gap started narrowing down since 1941 and during 1971 and 1981 there was

11
only a deficit of 22 women in urban areas for every thousand men in rural areas, but
surprisingly this deficit widened to 105 in 2001 and slightly narrowed down to 68 in 2011.

2.2 Regional Pattern of Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir

During 2001, most of the districts located in the Kashmir region had generally reported a
higher sex ratio than the districts located in Jammu division (Table 2). All the four districts
which had recorded a sex ratio of more than 930 were located in Kashmir region. They are
Kulgam, Shopian, Pulwama and Budgam. Four more districts of Kashmir valley namely
Anantnag, Baramulla, Kupwara and Ganderbal also had reported a sex ratio ranging between
900 and 930. Bandipora also had a sex ratio close to 900. Srinagar, the most urbanized district
of the State is the only district in Kashmir region which had recorded a sex ratio of less than
850. The two districts located in Ladakh division namely Leh and Kargil had recorded the
lowest sex ratio of 823 and 837 respectively. There are 10 districts in Jammu region and 7 of
them had recorded a low sex ratio ranging between 900 and 800. Only three districts in Jammu
division namely Kishtwar, Doda and Poonch have recorded a sex ratio of 900-920. Thus during
2001, Ladakh had the lowest sex ratio, followed by Jammu division and Kashmir valley had
the highest sex ratio in the State.

Table 2: District Wise Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir, 2001-2011

Sex Ratio-2001 Sex Ratio-2011 Difference 2001-11
District Total Rural Urban RU Diff Total Rural Urban R-U Diff Total Rural Urban

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JK 892 917 819 98 883 899 840 59 -9 -18 21
Kupwara 906 916 688 228 843 856 749 107 -63 -60 61
Baramulla 905 916 853 63 873 876 861 15 -32 -40 8
Bandipora 894 898 875 23 911 923 853 70 17 25 -22
Ganderbal 917 918 915 3 869 866 884 -18 -48 -52 -31
Srinagar 841 906 834 72 878 938 877 61 37 32 43
Budgam 931 942 854 88 886 881 922 -41 -45 -61 68
Pulwama 942 954 869 85 913 930 814 116 -29 -24 -55
Shopian 950 950 954 -4 951 956 878 78 1 6 -76
Kulgam 945 949 867 82 951 954 938 16 6 5 71
Anantnag 911 928 839 89 937 943 922 21 26 15 83
Kargil 837 869 559 310 775 762 915 -153 -62 -107 356
Leh 823 904 611 293 583 881 308 573 -240 -23 -303
Kishtwar 904 924 698 226 917 925 813 112 13 1 115
Doda 913 927 750 177 922 933 807 126 9 6 57
Ramban 889 899 721 178 901 909 738 171 12 10 17
Reasi 880 893 739 154 891 898 820 78 11 5 81
Punch 919 932 745 187 890 904 744 160 -29 -28 -1
Rajauri 878 890 736 154 863 885 617 268 -15 -5 -119
Udhampur 846 898 673 225 863 916 674 242 17 18 1
Jammu 865 893 833 60 871 894 848 46 6 1 15
Samba 897 939 776 163 886 904 799 105 -11 -35 23
Kathua 898 910 835 75 877 878 871 7 -21 -32 36

Although, the sex ratio during 2001-11 declined by 9 points but 2 districts namely Shopian and
Kulgam had recorded a sex ratio of about 950. Another 6 districts (Anantnag, Doda, Kishtwar,
Pulwama, Bandipora and Ramban) had recorded a sex ratio of more than 900. The two districts
located in Ladakh continued to have extremely low sex ratio. Leh with a sex ratio of 583 is
probably one of the districts which has lowest sex ratio in the country. Further analysis of the
trends in sex ratio during 2001-2011 reveals that 11 districts experienced a decline in sex ratio
during this period. Five of these districts are located in Kashmir region, 4 in Jammu region and
2 in Ladakh region. Both the districts located in Ladakh has experienced huge decline in sex
ratio. The highest decline of 240 women per thousand men has been witnessed by Leh
followed by Kargil (62). The 5 districts located in Kashmir region also have experienced a
huge dip in the sex ratio during 2001-2011. Kupwara has suffered a decline of 63, followed by
Ganderbal (48) Budgam (45), Baramulla (32) and Pulwama (29). The sex ratio in Jammu
division has declined by 29 points in Poonch and by 15 points in Rajouri. Kathua and Samba
districts the two infamous districts for low sex ratio have also suffered a decline of 21 and 11
points respectively.
Figure 2: District wise Child Sex Ratio in J&K, 2011

13
2.3 Rural Urban Differentials in Sex Ratio
Table 2 presents the district wise rural and urban sex ratio for 20101-2011. The sex ratio in
2001 in the rural areas among various districts exhibited the general sex ratio pattern. Barring
Shopian district, the sex ratio in all other districts was higher in rural areas than the urban
areas. However, the magnitude of rural-urban differences does vary among various districts
and regions of the State. Leh and Kargil districts in rural areas have 300 women more than in
urban areas. This huge difference in urban areas is partly due to the in migration of men for
work and out migration of women for education. Eight out of 10 districts located in Jammu
division also show a very huge difference in rural urban sex ratio. Rural sex ratio is about 200
more than the urban sex ratio in Kishtwar, Doda Ramban, Poonch and Udhampur. The rural
urban difference in sex ratio is about 150 in Samba, Rajauri and Reasi. Kupwara is the only
district in Kashmir region which has a rural-urban sex ratio difference of more than 200. The
rural-urban sex ratio is virtually same in Shopian and Ganderbal. The difference in other
districts range from a high of 89 in Anantnag to a low of 22 in Bandipora. Thus it may be
concluded that the rural-urban difference are very very high in Ladakh division, very high in
Jammu region and low in Kashmir region.

During 2001, there were only two districts namely Shopian and Ganderbal which had a sex
ratio of more than 900 in urban areas. But there were 9 districts which had a sex a ratio of 750
or less in urban areas. Eight of these districts are located in Jammu division. The only district
with a sex ratio of less than 750 in Kashmir division was Kupwara. Kargil and Leh, the two

14
districts of Ladakh division have a reported a very low urban sex ratio of 559 and 611
respectively.

Now if we compare the urban sex ratio of the State in 2001 and 2011, it can be seen that the
sex ratio has improved by 21 points. But this improvement is mainly concentrated in urban
areas of Kashmir valley and Kargil. In Kashmir valley, the urban sex ratio has declined in the
twin districts of Shopian and Pulwama and also in the twin districts of Ganderbal and
Bandipora. Leh has registered a decline of 303 points in its urban sex ratio. Rajauri also has
seen a steep dip in its urban sex ratio. An important finding which emerges from the data is that
by and large, urban sex ratio has improved in Kashmir region and it has further deteriorated in
Jammu and Ladakh regions.

15
 CHAPTER-3
Child Sex Ratio

While the overall sex ratio in the country presented encouraging trends, the same is not true in
the case of the girl child in the age group 0-6 years. Table-3 and fig-2 presents the sex ratio of
the total child population (0-6 years) from 1981 to 2011. It clearly brings out the fact that after
1991 there has been consistent rise in overall sex ratio. On the other hand, the fall in child sex
ratio has been unabated since 1981. As per the provisional population totals of Census 2011, it
has declined to reach an all time low of 918. In recent years the deficit of girls or decline in the
sex ratio at younger ages of zero to six years has become much more evident and stark. The
juvenile sex ratio, for the country as a whole, dropped by 4.5 per cent between 1981 and 2011.
The deficit of young girls, which was not evident in 1981, except in the traditionally and
historically masculine states of Haryana and Punjab and some small pockets elsewhere,
became quite stark by 2001 in states such as Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and in parts of
Rajasthan and Maharashtra. In Punjab, the juvenile sex ratio declined by 13 per cent from 908
to 793 between 1981 and 2001, and in Haryana, by 9 per cent from 902 in 1981 to 820 in 2001.
Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat also experienced a decline in the juvenile sex ratio of the order
of 7.5 per cent that is higher than the national average. Thus, an almost contiguous belt
extending from north-west of India to parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat has experienced drastic
decline in the child sex ratio during 1991-2001. In fact, according to the 2001 Census, there
were 49 districts in the country, where for every 1,000 male children aged 0-6 years there were
less than 850 female children. Majority or 38 of these districts were located in just three
northern and western states of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat [Census of India 2001].

A glance at the trend of CSR shows that as per Census 2011, child sex ratio (0-6 years) has
registered a decline of 9 points from 927 in 2001 to 918 in 2011. CSR increased only in six
States and two UTs. What gives some cause for cheer is the fact that the States where the child
sex ratio had dropped alarmingly in Census 2001 have now shown a slight improvement. This
increase is substantial in Punjab (789 to 846-57 points), Haryana (819 to 830- 11 points),
Himachal Pradesh (896 to 906- 10 points), Chandigarh (845 to 867- 22 points), Gujarat (883 to
886- 3 points) and Tamil Nadu (942 to 946- 4 points). In addition, Mizoram (964 to 971-7
points) and Andaman & Nicobar Island (957 to 966- 9 points) have also shown increasing trend
in the child sex ratio during 2001 -2011. At the same time, situation in other States/UTs has

16
been disconcerting. Although, the child sex ratio (0-6 years) has declined in 27 States and
Union Territories but the highest fall of 82 points have been reported in child sex ratio of
Jammu & Kashmir.

3.1 Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir

The Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir has traditionally been higher than the country as a
whole. There was hardly any difference in the CSR of J&K and India as a whole during 1981
and it stood at 962. However, CSR in 2001 in J&K declined to 941 and there was a drop of 22
points in CSR during 1981-2001 (Table 3). The CSR dropped by 35 points in the country
during the same period. However, during 2001-2011, CSR again dropped by 82 points in J&K
and this is one of the highest declines in the country. For the first time the CSR of J&K was
lower than the national average and what was surprising is that CSR of J&K was lower by 59
points than the national average. This huge decline within a span of 10 years has come a big
surprise to all demographers, academicians civil society and public at large. Such a large scale
decline became a subject of debate within and outside the State. If we analyse the trends in
CSR by rural urban residence, the CSR has declined by 97 points in rural areas and 19 points in
urban areas during the last two decades. Thus the decline in CSR during the last two decades in
J&K is basically a rural affair. The decreasing sex ratio in this age group has a cascading effect
on population over a period of time leading to diminishing sex ratio in the State. One thing is
clear- the imbalance that has set in at this early age group is difficult to be removed and would
remain to haunt the population for a long time to come. The problem is better understood, if
one considers the fact that the child sex ratio is primarily influenced by sex ratio at birth and
mortality in the early childhood.

Table- 3: Child Sex Ratio of India and Jammu and Kashmir, 1981-2011
Year T R U INDIA Difference
1981 963 970 931 962 1
1991 NA NA NA 916
2001 941 957 873 927 14
2011 859 860 854 918 -59

The natural sex ratio at birth usually is higher for male births. But the higher proportion of
male birth (SRB) is neutralized due to higher male infant mortality in the normal population.
Prior to 2001, the child sex ratio was higher than the general sex ratio but in 2011, this has
fallen even below the general sex ratio of population. This reflects a grim picture of the status
of the girl child in the State.

17
3.2 District wise Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in J&K
During 2001, the child sex ratio in J&K was highly uneven. There were 6 districts namely
Kulgam, Budgam, Shopian, Ganderbal, Kupwara and Pulwama which had a CSR of more than
1000 (Table 4). In fact during 2001, there were 13 districts in the country having a CSR of
more than 1000 and 6 of them were located in Kashmir. Baramulla, Anantnag and Bandipora
also located in Kashmir region also had fairly a good CSR ranging from 960 in Bandipora to
980 in Anantnag. Srinagar is the lone district from Kashmir region which had a low CSR of
928. Both the districts located in Ladakh division also had a satisfactory CSR. The three
contiguous districts of Jammu province namely Samba, Kathua and Jammu had a very low
CSR of less than 850. In fact Samba had one the lowest Child Sex Ratios in the country.
Udhampur and Rajouri also had a low sex ratio. The CSR in other districts in Jammu province
ranged from a high of 977 in Kishtwar to a low of 952 in Reasi. Thus CSR in 2001 was high in
Kashmir Division, satisfactory in Ladakh and low in Jammu region.

3.3 Rural-Urban Differences in Child Sex Ratio

A glance at Table 4 shows that there are large scale rural urban differences in the CSR in 2001.
Rural CSR is higher than urban CSR in 20 districts and the exceptions are Bandipora and
Ganderbal. Ganderbal and Shopian are the two districts where there were more girls than boys
in urban areas. Ganderbal with an urban CSR of 1104 has the distinction to one the best
performing districts in the country. There were 95 more girls than boys in urban areas in
Ganderbal in 2001. Although the difference in CSR in rural areas is more than 100 in 7 districts
but all these districts have a very small percentage of urban population. For example Kupwara
has 140 more girls in rural areas as compared to urban areas. Similarly the difference in the
rural and urban CSR in Reasi is 177. The rural urban difference in CSR in Samba, Jammu and
Kathua is the least indicating that low CSR existed equally in both rural and urban areas in
these districts. Samba, Kathua and Reasi recorded less than 800 CSR in urban areas which is
among the lowest in the country.

Although CSR declined during 2001-2011 in all the districts of the State but this decline is not
of uniform magnitude in various districts and regions of the State. Surprisingly, all the districts
which had recorded a very high CSR in 2001 reported the sharpest declines during 2011
indicating either the 2001 female child population is over reported or 2011 child figures are
under reported. Samba Jammu and Kathua, the three districts which traditionally have a very

18
low CSR continued to have higher deficit of females during 2011. Samba and Jammu in
particular had a CSR of less than 800. Five districts had recorded a CSR of 800-850. For the
first time, this group included 3 districts from Kashmir region namely Anantnag, Pulwama and
Baramulla. Another 9 districts had a CSR of 850-900. Except Poonch, all other districts are
from Kashmir region. CSR ranged between 900-930 in the districts of Reasi, Kishtwar,
Ramban and Doda. Kargil with a CSR of 978 and Leh with 942 are the two only districts
which had recorded a somewhat favorable CSR. Thus during 2011, the three districts of Jammu
continued with their legacy of low CSR but the entry of various districts from Kashmir region
is somewhat surprising given the fact that some of these districts with abnormally very low
CSR in 2011 had the highest CSR in the country in 200. Ladakh division continued experience
satisfactory CSR during 2011 also.

While comparing CSR by rural-urban residence, there is not much difference in the CSR
between rural and urban areas indicating that both rural and urban areas have behaved in a
similar fashion as far as CSR is concerned. During 2011, CSR in rural areas was less than 850
in 7 districts compared to only 2 districts in 2001. It was more than 950 in 2 districts in 2011
compared to about 19 districts in 2001. Thus much of the decline in CSR during 2011 is due to
a sharp fall in CSR in rural areas. During 2001, there were 9 districts with an urban CSR of 900
or more but during 2011 thus number declined to 4, while as the number of districts with an
urban CSR of 850-900 increased from 4 in 2001 to 9 in 2011. Similarly, the number of districts
with an urban CSR of 850-800 increased from 6 to 8 during 2001-2011. Not only the number
of districts with a low CSR increased but the rural-urban difference in CSR during 2011 also
increased. For example, there were only 2 districts in the State with a higher CSR in 2001 but
this number increased to 10. Overall, there was only a deficit of 6 girls in urban areas as
compared to rural areas but this deficit is highest in Shopian (85) followed by Ramban and
Udhampur (77). CSR in lower in rural areas than urban areas in 10 districts with the highest
difference of 69 in Rajouri, followed by Kargil (55), Pulwama (47) and Jammu (44). The case
of Jammu having a higher CSR in urban areas is a bit surprising, given the fact that urban CSR
traditionally was always higher in rural areas than in urban areas. It also indicates that
governments initiative which were launched to improve the CSR in Jammu province (Samba,
Kathua and Jammu) during the 2001-2011 have to some extent been in a position to improve
the CSR in urban areas than in rural areas.

Table-4 District Wise Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in Jammu and Kashmir, 2001-2011

19
 2001 2011 Diff, 2001-2011
R-U R-U
District Total Rural Urban diff Total Rural Urban diff T R U
J&K 941 957 873 84 859 860 854 6 82 97 19
Kupwara 1021 1026 886 140 854 852 873 -21 167 174 13
Baramulla 961 967 925 42 866 869 848 21 95 98 77
Bandipora 967 966 979 -13 893 894 885 9 74 72 94
Ganderbal 1014 1009 1104 -95 863 875 809 66 151 134 295
Srinagar 928 997 918 79 869 965 868 97 59 32 50
Budgam 1004 1009 957 52 832 832 829 3 172 177 128
Pulwama 1046 1055 969 86 836 830 877 -47 210 225 92
Shopian 1011 1011 1008 3 883 888 803 85 128 123 205
Kulgam 1003 1008 891 117 882 879 897 -18 121 129 -6
Anantnag 977 994 890 104 832 826 852 -26 145 168 38
Kargil 980 984 914 70 978 974 1029 -55 2 10 -115
Leh 955 964 921 43 944 936 969 -33 11 28 -48
Kishtwar 977 986 843 143 922 924 863 61 55 62 -20
Doda 959 965 848 117 932 937 847 90 27 28 1
Ramban 968 971 882 89 931 933 855 78 37 38 27
Reasi 952 963 786 177 921 923 889 34 31 40 -103
Punch 959 964 849 115 895 894 902 -8 64 70 -53
Rajauri 905 909 829 80 837 835 904 -69 68 74 -75
Udhampur 912 924 849 75 887 897 820 77 25 27 29
Jammu 819 831 801 30 795 776 820 -44 24 55 -19
Samba 798 804 778 26 787 785 797 -12 11 19 -19
Kathua 847 854 796 58 836 840 805 35 11 14 -9

As mentioned above that the CSR declined in almost every district of J&K during 2001-2011.
But this decline exhibits a well defined regional pattern. There are 7 districts which have
experienced a decline of more than 100 in CSR and surprisingly all these 7 districts are located
in Kashmir region. Pulwama with a decline of 210 in CSR perhaps qualifies as the leader in
CSR decline. It is the same district which had recorded the highest CSR of 1046 in 2001.
Baramulla (95) and Bandipora (74) also have reported a huge dip in CSR during 2001-2011.
The four districts (Samba, Kathua, Jammu and Udhampur) located in Jammu district have
recorded smaller declines (11-25) in CSR. The Pir Panchal and Chenab Valley regions have
recorded a decline of 25-70 points in CSR during 2001-2011. One thing is clear that this huge
decline in CSR in Kashmir region cannot be solely attributed to female infanticide alone and
excess female child mortality alone. Other factors such as over enumeration of girls in 2001
and under-enumeration of girls in 2011 need also to be analyzed to explain this huge dip in
CSR in Kashmir region.

20
3.4 Tehsil wise Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir
The tehsil level data shows in Table-5 shows that out of 84 tehsils 10 had a very low CSR of
less than 800. Three of the four tehsils of Jammu district fall in this category. The lone tehsil of
Samba also has a CSR of less than 800. One tehsil each from Pulwama, Baramulla, Anantnag
and Kathua also have a low CSR of less than 800. Of the 6 tehsils in Budgam, 2 fall in this low
CSR category. Forty six (55 percent) of tehsils have CSR of 800-900. Twenty five of them are
in Kashmir and remaining 21 are from Jammu region. All the tehsils of Ganderbal, Shopian
and Kulgam fall in this category. Majority of the tehsils of Baramulla, Anantnag, Rajouri,
Udhampur and Kathua also belong to this group. Twenty tehsils (24 percent) tehsils have a
CSR of 900-950. The number of tehsils falling is category from the Kashmir, Jammu and
Ladakh are 8, 1 and 11 respectively. Majority of the tehsils from Doda, Ramban and Bandipora
have a CSR of 900-950. The number of tehsils with a CSR of more than 950 is 8. These tehsils
are mainly located in Ladakh region. One tehsil each from Srinagar, Kishtwar, Doda and Reasi
also has a high CSR of more than 950.

Table 6 shows that there is a lot of variation in the CSR across various Tehsils in the State.
There are 3 Tehsils in Kupwara and the CSR in these tehsils vary from a high of 902 in
Handwara to a low of 871 in Kupwara. There are 8 tehsils in Baramulla district and among
them Pattan has the lowest CSR of 790. Two Tehsils namely Rafiabad and Uri have a CSR of
about 920. All other tehsils have a CSR ranging between 81 and 895. Gurez and Bandipora
Tehsils of Bandipora district have a sex ratio of more than 900 but Sonawari has a CSR of 848.
All the 3 tehsils of Ganderbal have a CSR of less than 900 with Ganderbal tehsil as low as 837.
The difference in the CSR of two tehsils of Srinagar district is about 100. While the CSR is
generally lower in urban areas but surprisingly Srinagar (South) which is 100 percent urban has
the highest CSR of 951 in Kashmir region.

Table -5 Tehsil Wise Child Sex Ratio of J&K by Sex Ratio Category 2011
Child sex ratio (0-6)
S. No. District No. of Tehsil
<800 800-900 900-949 950+
01 Kupwara 3 2 1
02 Baramulla 8 1 5 2
03 Bandipora 3 1 2
04 Ganderbal 3 3
05 Srinagar 2 1 1
06 Budgam 6 2 3 1
07 Pulwama 4 1 2 1
08 Shopian 1 1

21
 09 Kulgam 3 3
10 Anantnag 6 1 4 1
11 Kargil 3 1 2
12 Leh 2 2
13 Kishtwar 4 1 2 1
14 Doda 4 3 1
15 Ramban 2 2
16 Reasi 2 1 1
17 Poonch 4 3 1
18 Rajauri 7 6 1
19 Udhampur 4 3 1
20 Jammu 4 3 1
21 Samba 1 1
22 Kathua 5 1 3 1
Total J&K 84 10 46 20 8

Budgam has 6 tehsils. Three of the tehsils of Budgam namely Beerwah, Chadoora and Charar-
E-Shrief have one of the lowest CSRs in Kashmir region. In fact Beerwah with a CSR of 746
has the lowest CSR in the Kashmir region. Tral in Pulwama district has the second best CSR in
Kashmir region but Pulwama and Awantipora have very low CSR. There is not much variation
among the three tehsils of Kulgam in CSR. Shangus, Kokernag and Dooru, three remote tehsils
of he district have very low CSR. Anantnag tehsil with the highest urban population also has a
low CSR. Pahalgam which is generally famous for its scenic beauty, also has the distinction of
girl child friendly tehsil in Anantnag.

Table-6: Tehsil Wise Rural Urban Child Sex Ratio (0-6) in J&K, 2011
District Tehsil Total Rural Urban Rural-Urban Difference
Kupwara Kupwara 871 869 881 -12
Kupwara Karnah 874 901 790 111
Kupwara Handwara 902 899 988 -89
Baramulla Pattan 790 787 846 -59
Baramulla Boniyar 851 851
Baramulla Baramulla 877 914 830 84
Baramulla Tangmarg 881 879 1122 -243
Baramulla Kreeri 886 886
Baramulla Sopore 895 914 850 64
Baramulla Uri 920 925 851 74
Baramulla Rafiabad 923 914 1095 -181
Bandipora Sonawari 848 856 797 58
Bandipora Gurez 914 914
Bandipora Bandipora 926 921 957 -36
Ganderbal Ganderbal 837 871 799 72

22
Ganderbal Lar 868 879 792 87
Ganderbal Kangan 877 877
Srinagar Srinagar (N) 863 858 864 -6
Srinagar Srinagar (S) 951 1077 885 192
Budgam Beerwah 746 741 806 -65
Budgam Charar- E- Shrief 792 781 861 -80
Budgam Chadoora 827 837 785 53
Budgam Khansahib 882 884 758 126
Budgam Budgam 897 883 1010 -127
Budgam Khag 932 932
Pulwama Pulwama 788 793 718 74
Pulwama Awantipora 818 827 760 67
Pulwama Pampore 890 887 895 -8
Pulwama Tral 930 909 1014 -105
Shopian Shopian 878 882 800 82
Kulgam Devsar 874 879 859 19
Kulgam D H Pora 884 884
Kulgam Kulgam 887 886 890 -5
Anantnag Shangus 783 791 711 80
Anantnag Dooru 822 825 806 18
Anantnag Kokernag 837 837 870 -34
Anantnag Anantnag 838 822 854 -32
Anantnag Bijbehara 863 870 839 31
Anantnag Pahalgam 911 916 865 51
Kargil Zanskar 947 947
Kargil Sanku 980 980
Kargil Kargil 981 979 991 -12
Leh Khalsi 844 844
Leh Nubra 955 955
Leh Leh 971 960 989 -29
Kishtwar Atholi (Paddar) 889 889
Kishtwar Marwah 904 904
Kishtwar Kishtwar 918 923 868 55
Kishtwar Chhatroo 969 969
Doda Bhaderwah 906 918 825 93
Doda Doda 927 935 833 101
Doda Thathri 942 942
Doda Gandoh 962 962
Ramban Ramban 918 922 796 126
Ramban Banihal 933 933 902 31
Reasi Reasi 882 880 894 -14
Reasi Gool-Gulabgarh 952 952

23
Poonch Haveli 890 890 889 1
Poonch Mendhar 890 891 878 13
Poonch Surankote 891 892 877 15
Poonch Mandi 905 905
Rajouri Darhal 801 801
Rajouri Sunderbani 826 827 811 16
Rajouri Nowshehra 833 841 695 146
Rajouri Rajauri 861 860 872 -12
Rajouri Thanamandi 861 863 830 34
Rajouri Kalakote 866 866
Rajouri Budhal 918 918
Udhampur Majalta 852 852
Udhampur Udhampur 876 894 827 68
Udhampur Ramnagar 890 889 894 -4
Udhampur Chenani 937 944 768 176
Jammu Ranbir Singh Pora 724 718 764 -46
Jammu Bishnah 751 746 776 -30
Jammu Akhnoor 782 785 758 27
Jammu Jammu 820 802 830 -28
Samba Samba 779 778 784 -6
Kathua Hiranagar 766 765 792 -27
Kathua Kathua 801 798 807 -9
Kathua Basholi 862 863 834 30
Kathua Billawar 868 868 878 -10
Kathua Bani 943 943

All the 3 tehsils located in Kargil district have a fairly good CSR of more than 950. Of the 3
tehsils located in Leh district, two tehsils namely Leh and Nubra have a fairly high CSR of
more than 950. Khalsi, on the other hand has a moderate CSR of 844. There are 4 tehsils in
Kishtwar district and among these Chhatroo has a high CSR of 969. Two more tehsils have a
CSR of about 900 and only 1 tehsil namely Attohli, which otherwise is the most backward and
far-flung tehsil of the State has a low CSR in the district. All the 4 tehsil in Doda district and
also the two tehsils of Ramban district have a CSR of more than 900. In fact one of the tehsils
of Doda district namely Gandoh has a CSR of 962, which is among the highest in the State.
The difference in the CSR among the two tehsils of Reasi district is 70. There is not much
variation in CSR among various tehsils of Poonch district. It ranges from a low of 890 in
Haveli to a high of 905 in Mandi. Barring Budhal, all the tehsils of Rajouri district have
reported a CSR of less than 850. The two Hindu dominated Tehsils namely Sunderbani and
Nowshera have reported a very low CSR. Darhal has reported the lowest CSR in the district.

24
Udhampur has 4 districts and 3 of them have a CSR 850-900 and only 1 (Chenani) has a good
CSR of 937. CSR also does not vary much among the 4 tehsils of Jammu district. Only 1 tehsil
(Jammu) has a CSR of more than 800 and the remaining 3 have a CSR of less than 800. IN fact
R. S. Pora has the lowest CSR of 724 in the State. Kathua district is notorious for low CSR.
But the most backward tehsil of the district namely Bani has a very high CSR of 943. Kathua
and Hiranagar have recorded very low CSR of 901 and 766 respectively.

3.5 Rural Urban Differences in Child Sex Ratio at Tehsil Level

As mentioned earlier that urban CSR is generally lower than rural CSR, but in 26 tehsils, CSR
is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The Urban CSR is higher by more than 100 girls in
four tehsils than rural CSR. These tehsils are Tangmarg, Rafiabad, Budgam and Tral. Urban
CSR is also higher by more than 50 points than rural CSR in Handwara, Charar-E-Shrief,
Beerwah and Pattan. Thus all the 8 tehsils of the State where there are more girls than boys in
urban areas are located in Kashmir region. Thirty tehsils have a higher rural CSR than urban
CSR. Six of these tehsils have a large urban rural difference ranging from 100 in Doda to 192
in Srinagar. Most of the Tehsils of the State which have very high rural CSR and lower Urban
CSR are from Jammu division. Further, 15 Tehsils have an rural CSR which is 50 points more
than urban CSR and 12 of these Tehsils are located in Kashmir division. Tehsils where the
difference in urban and rural CSR is not very high are generally located in Jammu division.
Thus the CSR in Kashmir Tehsils have two extremes. The first extreme is that in some areas
the urban CSR is very high compared to rural areas. The second extreme is that in some other
tehsils, the rural CSR is very high compared to urban areas. It appears that it is difficult to
believe that excess mortality, female infanticide can be cause of this difference in the rural
areas in the first group of tehsils and same is not true for rural areas in the second group of
tehsils but it is true for urban areas in the second group. On the other hand, it appears that
enumerators seem to have arbitrarily over reported males and females in some areas resulting
in unexpected CSRs in the State particularly in Kashmir region.

25
 CHAPTER-4
Sex Ratio at Birth

4.1 Sex Ratio at Very Young Ages

Another way of looking at the Child Sex Ratio (CSR) is analyze the CSR at age 0, 1 and 6.
CSR at birth gives a clear picture of recent Sex ratio as it is not affected by migration. It also
helps us to understand whether female feticide is taking place in the society and if yes to what
extent. Now when we look at sex ratio at age 6, it indicates that J&K had a SR of 885 at age 6
(Table 7). The Kashmir region (896) has a higher SR than Jammu region (782) and Ladakh
region has the highest SR of 924 at age 6. But if we look at CSR at age 0, it is 779, thus the SR
has declined by 106 points between age 0 and age 6. There is not any substantial decline in SR
between age 0 and 6 in Jammu region but it has declined by 150 points in Kashmir region and
at the same time it has improved by 71 points in Ladakh region. Thus the different regions have
behaved differently so far as CSR is concerned. Within Kashmir region, the decline is about
200 points in the 4 districts of South Kashmir namely Shopian, Pulwama, Kulgam, Anantnag.
The decline is about 100-200 points in North Kashmir. The Central Kashmir consisting of the
two districts of Srinagar and Budgam have experienced a decline of 50-100 points. Thus within
the Kashmir region also, SR decline exhibits a regional decline.

If we look at the SRs at age 0, it is less than 700 in Pulwama and Shopian. Pulwama in
particular has extremely low SRB of 655. All other districts of Kashmir region have a SR of
700-800. Samba, Kathua, Poonch, Ramban, Kishtwar, Rajauri and Jammu also have a low
SRB ranging between 800-850. The SRB in Doda, Resai and Udhampur is about 900. Only
the two districts of Ladakh have a fairly high SRB of around 1000.

Overall, it has declined by 68 points in the State and this decline is solely concentrated in
Kashmir region. The SR between age 0 and age 1 has improved by 12 points in Ladakh region
and by 2 points in Jammu region. Since it has declined by 92 points in Kashmir region,
therefore, it is interesting to know whether it has uniformly declined across districts.
Information provided in table 7 shows that Shopian districts tops the list with a decline of 210
points bin SR between age 0 and age 1. Shopian is followed by Kulgam and Pulwama districts
(140 points each. These three districts along with Anantnag district which has also recorded a
decline of 100 points comprise South Kashmir. Thus the Kashmir which is considered to be the

26
hot bed of militancy seems also to be the hot bed of child sex ratio decline. At this stage it is
difficult to explain whether there is any connection between militancy and sex ratio but a
direction connection between militancy and quality of data collection activities cannot be ruled
out.
Table- 7 : District wise Child Sex Ratio at age 0, age 1 and age 6 in J&K 2011
District Age Difference
0 1 6 0-6 1-6 0-1
Shopian 655 865 952 -297 -87 -210
Pulwama 693 834 871 -178 -37 -141
Kulgam 700 842 958 -258 -116 -142
Ganderbal 717 846 926 -209 -80 -129
Anantnag 720 820 912 -192 -93 -100
Baramulla 742 824 900 -158 -76 -82
Srinagar 779 858 878 -99 -20 -78
Budgam 785 828 850 -65 -23 -43
Kupwara 806 852 895 -89 -42 -47
Bandipora 807 853 907 -100 -54 -46
Samba 812 778 766 46 13 34
Kathua 824 832 830 -6 2 -8
Punch 836 879 924 -88 -45 -43
Ramban 838 942 932 -94 10 -104
Kishtwar 839 878 954 -115 -76 -38
Jammu 840 854 867 -27 -13 -14
Rajouri 858 849 852 6 -3 9
Doda 896 926 982 -86 -56 -30
Reasi 909 911 922 -13 -12 -1
Udhampur 914 882 892 22 -10 32
Kargil 975 1,024 936 38 87 -49
Leh 1,029 927 903 125 24 101
Kashmir Region 746 838 896 -150 -58 -92
Jammu Region 778 776 782 -4 -6 2
Ladakh Region 995 983 924 71 59 12
J&K 779 847 885 -106 -38 -68

The above discussion clearly shows that there is a regional pattern of sex ratio and much of the
decline in CSR during 2001-2011 has taken place in Jammu and Kashmir. Although, this
decline in CSR in the country during 2001-2011 has generally been attributed to sex selective
abortion but does the same theory hold true for drastic decline of CSR in Jammu and Kashmir
particularly at age 0 and 1. There are generally four factors which determine the Child Sex
Ratio. The first determinant of CSR is that more males are born compared to females. The
second factor is more females die than males. The third factor may be there is a sex differential
in migration. A fourth factor may be that girls are under enumerated than boys. Let us discuss
each one of these issues one by one.

27
4.1.1 The impact of migration
Migration generally affects the adult sex ratio as the young ones are least vulnerable to
migration. Since the magnitude of migration is very limited in J&K and seems quite
implausible in a period otherwise characterized by prolonged political disturbances. So
migration is not responsible for decline of child sex ratio or sex ratio at birth in J&K
particularly in Kashmir region.

4.1.2 Crude Birth Rate

Sample Registration System (SRS) is considered to be the most credible source of Crude Birth
Rate and Infant Mortality Rate in India. As per the Sample Registration System (SRS), the
Crude Birth Rate in Jammu and Kashmir varied from a high of 18.9 in 2005 to a low of 18.3 in
2011 (Table 8). The mean CBR during 2005-10 works out to be 18.7. The mean CBR at the
national level on the other hand works out to be 23. During 2005-2010, CBR in J&K has
always been lower by 4.3 points and is declining further. Rural mean CBR during 2005-2010 in
J&K was 20 and urban CBR during the same period was 14. The corresponding figures at the
national level for rural and urban areas were 24.6 and 18.6. Thus, the rural and urban CBRs in
J&K are lower by 4.6 than the country as a whole. Thus one thing is clear that the CBR in J&K
is on the decline and is lower than the national average by a minimum of 4 points.

However, if calculate the CBR of J&K based on single year age returns of Census 2011
population either by a simple method of dividing the population age 0 by total population or by
using a sophisticated reverse survival method used by Sanjay and Sathyanarayana in 2012 and
presented in Table 9), it can be seen that both methods show that Census 2011 CBR is
surprisingly very high compared to the average SRS CBR for the period 2005-2010. While the
CBR has fast declined during the last 5 years in each and every State of India it is only the
J&K particularly in Kashmir division that the CBR has increased. More specifically CBR has
declined by 17.9 percent during the last 6 years in the country but in Jammu and Kashmir it has
increased by about 6 percent. If we calculate the CBR by simple method without taking into
account the mortality, the CBR for the State of J&K works out to be 23 compared to 27 at the
national level. It also shows that CBR has increased in Kashmir region and has declined in
Jammu and Ladakh regions. The general pattern in India has been that district which had a
higher fertility during 2001 has observed faster declines and districts which had a lower
fertility had experienced lower declines. If we apply this general trend observed in other States

28
of the country that all the rural districts of J&K should also have experienced faster declines
but surprisingly almost all the districts located in Kashmir Valley have experienced an increase
in CBR. Kupwara, Budgam, Pulwama, Anantnag have s experienced 25-30 percent increase in
CBR. Srinagar with a urban population of 99.9 percent has also experienced more than 10
percent increase in CBR during the last 10 years. Baramulla is the only district in Kashmir
Valley where the CBR has remained unchanged during 2001-2011. The 2 districts outside
Kashmir Valley that have also witnessed a upward trend in CBR are Leh and Rajouri. All other
districts have registered a decline in CBR.
Table 8: Crude Birth Rate in J&K and India, 2005-2010
India Jammu and Kashmir
Year Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
2005 23.8 25.6 19.1 18.9 20.2 14.3
2006 23.5 25.2 18.8 18.7 20.0 14.2
2007 23.1 24.7 18.6 19.0 20.4 14.1
2008 22.8 24.4 18.5 18.8 20.2 14.0
2009 22.5 24.1 18.3 18.6 19.9 13.7
2010 22.1 23.7 18.0 18.3 19.5 13.5
2005-10 23.0 24.6 18.6 18.7 20.0 14.0

Thus it may be concluded that when one examines the results of undivided districts in Kashmir
region, a clear increase in birth rate is observed. Thus the impression one gets is that the data is
suspect and needs further investigation. Since the CBR has only increased in Kashmir based
districts, therefore, it appears that child population in valley districts seems to have been over-
reported.

Table 9: District Wise Crude Birth Rate Based in Jammu and Kashmir Using 2011
Census by Reversal Survival Method
India 25.9 21.3 17.9 914
J&K 24.5 25.9 -5.6 859 870
Kupwara 30.4 38.1 -25.2 854 862
Budgam 25.8 33.1 -28.1 832 843
Leh 10.6 13.4 -26.2 944 958
Kargil 26.7 25.6 4.2 978 965
Punch 30.3 29.3 3.3 895 900
Rajouri 28 31.2 -11.5 837 850
Kathua 24.9 20.6 17.2 836 844
Baramulla 26.4 25.9 2 866 882
Bandipora 25.9 893 909
Srinagar 17.5 19.7 -12.8 869 888
Ganderbal 17.5 28.3 863 883
Pulwama 20.8 27.5 -32.4 836 846

29
 Shopian 20.8 24.1 883 893
Anantnag 25 32.4 -29.6 831 853
Kulgam 25.7 882 905
Doda 29.1 28.3 2.7 932 942
Ramban 31.9 931 939
Kishtwar 27.1 922 931
Udhampur 27.7 23.9 13.7 887 893
Reasi 29 921 928
Jammu 21.3 16.1 24.3 795 803
Samba 18.7 787 994

4.1.3 Sex differential in child mortality

Another important reason that could be considered to explain huge female deficit is sex
differentials in infant and childhood mortality. While girls in India have higher under-five
mortality than boys but luckily gender differences in under-five mortality in J&K are
minimum. For example, under-five mortality according to NFHS-3 in India was 70 for boys
and 79 for girls and for Jammu and Kashmir it was 54 for both boys and girls. Similarly, if we
look at the under five mortality published by Sample Registration System-2005-2011 and
presented in Table 10, there is hardly any difference in the under five mortality in J&K and in
fact most of the mortality indicators at young ages are higher in case of male children rather
than for female children. For example boys and girls under five mortality accounted for 17
percent and 18 percent of total male and female deaths respectively. Neonatal mortality rate
among the male and female is 35 and 28 respectively. SRS also shows that there was a
difference of just three points between IMR of males and females in J&K during the last 2005-
2011. Similarly, there are hardly any gender difference in full immunization coverage and
various nutritional indicators. Thus, gender differences in infant and child mortality cannot
explain huge deficit of females in the State. May be in some pockets of J&K, there may be
excess female mortality than male mortality at younger ages, but the CSR has shown a decline
in most prosperous districts of Kashmir valley where we cannot expect more female mortality
at very young ages.

Table 10: Infant Mortality in Jammu and Kashmir and India, 2005-2010
Year Jammu & Kashmir India
female Gender Gender
Total Male difference Total Male Female difference
2005* 50 47 55 8 58 56 61 5
2006* 52 51 53 2 57 56 59 3
2007* 51 49 52 3 55 55 56 1

30
2008* 49 48 51 3 53 52 55 3
2009* 45 44 49 5 50 49 52 3
2010* 43 41 45 4 47 46 49 3
2005-10* 48.3 47.2 50.2 3 53.4 52.3 55.4 3
2006 NFHS-3 45.5 48.1 42.7 -5.4 73.0 74.8 71.1 3.7
1998 NFHS-2 62.8 63.8 61.7 -2.1 57.0 56.3 57.7 1.4

From demographic theory we can easily show that in a period when the life expectancy of
females increases by a greater length than for the males, it is impossible for the sex ratio to
decline except in the case of large scale surplus emigration of females over males (in millions),
or a very sudden drop in the percentage of female births to male births (decrease in the sex
ratio at birth, defined in this case as female births to 100 male births) again in millions, both
implying events of such colossal magnitude that they could not have gone unnoticed in a
democratic society such as India.

This widespread large decline in the sex ratios in the country in last decade in the context of an
increasing trend in female life expectancy (rising faster than for the males), raises the
possibility of large-scale under-enumeration of females or over-enumeration of males in the
2011 Census.

4.1.4 The Issue of under enumeration of girls or over enumeration of boys

The third plausible reason for a dip in child sex ratio can be biasness in under-enumeration of
female child during Census-2011 or over reporting of boys in certain sensitive areas in
Kashmir. While, it is difficult to prove that Census has underreported females, but India Census
has a tradition of underreporting females. For example K. Srinivasan had also shown that the
widespread large decline in the sex ratios in the country during 1981-91 in the context of an
increasing trend in female life expectancy (rising faster than for the males), and similar
phenomena in a number of states was to some extent due to the possibility of large-scale under-
enumeration of females in the 1991 Census. Further, conduct of Census in a sensitive State like
J&K has always been a challenging job. Due to the security concerns, Census was not
conducted in J&K in 1991. During 2001 also, militants were opposed to the conduct of census
and issued threats to the staff participating in census enumeration. This created a sense of
insecurity among enumerating staff, but Government wanted to have a census at all costs and
consequently, when the Census results were out, there were few takers and even the various
State Departments questioned the quality of Census data. For example, the State Government
not satisfied with the overall sex ratio figures of 2001 Census, conducted a special Sex Ratio

31
census in the State in 2003. Civil society doubted the figures pertaining to the religious
composition of the State and a good number of write-ups appeared in the local press criticizing
the Government of India for deliberately changing the religious composition of the State by
including non state subjects. During 2011, though the militant organizations did not oppose the
conduct of census but requested all Muslims of the State to get enumerated and the Census
staff of the Valley was asked to fulfill all obligations towards its community, so that the
Muslim majority character of the State gets reflected in the Census. Thus, the conduct of
census during the last three decades in J&K has been much politicized and used as a weapon
both by the militant organizations as well as by the State Government to show their strength.

Various sources other than Census-2011 point to the slow but steady decline in fertility in
Jammu and Kashmir. Technically, when the fertility declines the proportion of population in
the age group of 0-6 in the latest Census (2011). While this decline in child proportion during
the last two census can be observed in all other States but the only exception is Jammu and
Kashmir. The child population (0-6) to total population in J&K was 14.6 percent but even with
declining fertility trend during 2001-2011, this percentage has increased to 16.01 percent
(Table 11). This proportion during 2011 is very high in some districts located in Kashmir
region. For example, more than 20 percent of population in Kupwara and Budgam is under age
6. Anantnag and Pulwama also have a high proportion of child population. In Jammu division,
the mountainous and Muslims dominated districts of Rajouri and Ramban also have 19 percent
of its population under age 6. These are the districts which have experienced sharp decline in
child sex ratio as per Census.
Table 11: District Wise Percentage of Child Population (0-6) in Jammu & Kashmir 2001-2011
2001 2011
District Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
J&K 14.65 15.93 10.76 16.01 17.47 12.08
Kupwara 17.31 17.46 13.6 22.5 22.88 19.47
Baramulla 15.57 16.22 12.53 15.94 16.66 12.47
Bandipora 16.45 16.88 14.06 15.66 16.53 11.42
Ganderbal 15.83 16.05 12.59 17.02 16.87 17.81
Srinagar 9.8 13.32 9.44 12.27 13.5 12.25
Budgam 15.67 16.13 12.19 20.49 21.06 16.17
Pulwama 12.04 12.43 9.38 17.13 17.14 17.03
Shopian 15.07 15.39 10 15.14 15.28 12.78
Kulgam 16.52 16.64 14.03 16.63 17.1 14.62
Anantnag 14.39 15.06 11.6 19.28 20.27 16.48
Kargil 16.24 16.88 9.81 14.23 14.45 12.01
Leh 10.86 11.35 9.34 8.03 10.57 4.67

32
Kishtwar 16.59 17.02 11.62 16.93 17.37 10.53
Doda 17.25 17.69 11.27 17.34 17.83 11.75
Ramban 17.97 18.3 11.92 19.32 19.7 10.66
Reasi 17.22 17.71 11.76 17.73 18.25 12.19
Punch 18 18.48 11.02 17.64 18.2 11.3
Rajauri 16.43 16.74 12.25 19.14 19.81 10.38
Udhampur 15.66 16.83 11.23 14.88 16.14 9.74
Jammu 12.28 13.34 11.07 10.47 11.88 9.05
Samba 13.86 14.2 12.78 11.93 12.22 10.49
Kathua 14.86 15.43 11.73 13.02 13.47 10.32

However, if we look at the proportion of 0-6 child population in various districts of J&K in
2001, it can be seen that the proportion of child population in none of the districts was more
than 18 percent. The most backward districts of J&K namely Ramban, Reasi Doda Kishtwar
and Kupwara had less than 18 percent of its population in the 0-6 age group. Srinagar, socially
and economically, the most developed district of the State also had only 10 percent of its
population in 0-6 age group. This proportion of child population in 2001 in various districts
was in consistent with the prevailing births rates. But if the child population in Srinagar has
increased from 9.4 percent in 2001 to 12.27 in the absence any rebound in fertility, this
increase seems to be suspect.

If we look at the percentage growth in child population during 2001-2011, the State has
registered an increase of 35.2 percent increase in its child population. This is one of the highest
among the major States of India. Even the poor States like Bihar, Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh
have not experienced such increases in child population despite their high fertility than J&K.
Within the J&K, there are some regional patterns in the growth of child population. Barring
Kulgam, the proportion of 0-6 population has increased in all other districts of Kashmir region.
The proportion of child population has declined in both districts of Ladakh region. In Jammu
division, it has declined in four contiguous districts of Samba, Kathua and Jammu. All these
four districts are Hindu dominated districts. Pirpanjal and Chenab Valley regions which are
also Muslims dominated districts have also registered significant increase in child population.
Within the Kashmir valley, Anantnag, Pulwama and Kupwara have registered an unexpected
increase of more than 75 percent in child population. Budgam (63 percent), Srinagar (52
percent) and Ganderbal (47 percent) also have registered huge increase in child population. The
reason for such an unprecedented increase in child population is not known. However, Census
officials also have not given any explanation for this increase in Kashmir Valley. It is argued
that among other things, such an increase is also possible due to an undercount of child

33
population in the last Census. But when we look at the percentage of child population among
various districts in 2001 (Table 11 ), it can be seen that there is no indication of any child
undercount in any of the districts of Kashmir. For example the percentage of child population
to total population in Kupwara was 17.3 percent. Some most backward districts than Kupwara
like Reasi, Ramban, Doda, Kishtwar, Rajouri and Poonch also had similar proportion of child
population. If we borrow this theory of child undercount in districts like Kupwara, Pulwama,
Anantnag and Budgam, then same theory should also hold true for other districts located in
Jammu region. Further, any such undercount does not explain the rise in child population,
unless all fertility levels and trends from 2001 to 2010 given by the SRS, NFHS and HMIS are
equally wrong. The other hypothesis of a real rise in fertility during the last decade is also
contradicted by all available fertility measurements accessed from the SRS and from the
NFHS. In light of these facts, the theory of gross under count of child population in 2001 as a
reason for unprecedented increase in child population during 2011 does not hold much weight.

4.2 What does Age Distribution of Child Population Reveal?

The age distribution of child population (0-6) is somewhat confusing. Normally under
prevailing fertility and mortality scenario, the proportion of children in various age groups
from age 0 to age 6 should follow a more or less similar pattern and there should not be much
deviation from one age to another. As we do not expect much change in the fertility during the
period 2006-2011 and infant and child mortality has also not changed much during this period,
so the proportion of population in various ages between age 0 and age 6 should more or less
same. To take into account the impact of infant and child mortality, without assuming any
change in fertility, the proportion of children in each age from age 0 should slightly decline.
But when we look at the distribution of children by age we do have this pattern for J&K but
different regions of the State follow altogether a different pattern (Table 12) . Almost 14-15
percent of children are in each age (0-1) in J&K as a whole. But if we look at Kashmir region,
15.1 percent of children are age 0 and 13.1 percent are age 1 and the percentage of children age
2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 range between14-15. The difference between the percentage of children age 0
and age 1 is 2 percent. This increase of 2 percent in just one year can happen either there was
an explosion in CBR in Kashmir or our Child Health Services in the year were so good that
there was no infant death in Kashmir or infant age 0 immigrated into Kashmir without their
parents. Apparently none of these things have happened in Kashmir, CBR has declined to 18
and IMR was around 43. There are no signs of age misreporting or emigration if infants, so the
question is what explains this increase of 2 percent in child population during 2010-2011. The

34
only viable reason for such an exponential increase in child population age 0 is over reporting
of infants in Census 2011.

Ladakh region has completely an age structure which resembles with the western societies like
Itlay, span, France where total fertility rate has gone down below 1. The Census has recorded
only 8.2 percent of children are age 0 and 15 percent are age 1. Thus the difference between
age 0 and age 1 is 7 percent. Such a huge difference can only be explained either by a sharp dip
in CBR or a sharp rise in IMR, or age misreporting. None of these things seem to have
happened in Leh and Kargil. Since the percentage of children in various ages (1-6) ranges from
15-16 percent therefore age misreporting also cannot explain a dip in the population age 0 in
Ladakh region. In Jammu region, the percentage of children less than age 1 is 11.8 percent and
the proportion of children age 1 to age 6 ranges between 14-15 percent. Thus there is a
difference of 2.7 percent in the proportion of population between age 0 and age 1. Some of the
decline in age 0 in Jammu region can be explained by age misreporting, fertility decline and
female infanticide, as the Jammu, Samba and Kathua belt bordering Punjab is notorious for this
unethical practice.

Table 12: Percentage Distribution of Child Population (0-6) by Single Age in Jammu and Kashmir, 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Diff 0-1 Diff 1-2
Kupwara 15.3 12.8 14.3 13.7 14.5 14.3 15.1 2.5 -1.5
Baramulla 15.0 12.5 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 14.9 2.5 -1.3
Bandipora 13.3 12.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.3 16.0 1.1 -1.5
Ganderbal 13.6 13.0 14.0 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.9 0.5 -1.0
Srinagar 14.4 13.9 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.4 0.5 -0.7
Budgam 11.2 12.4 15.1 14.5 15.8 15.4 15.6 -1.2 -2.7
Pulwama 20.2 13.6 14.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 12.5 6.6 -0.4
Shopian 18.4 12.3 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.6 15.0 6.2 -0.6
Kulgam 17.9 13.6 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.1 4.3 0.6
Anantnag 14.7 13.0 14.6 13.8 14.6 14.6 14.7 1.7 -1.6
Kargil 8.2 14.2 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.5 -6.1 0.0
Leh 8.3 16.3 14.4 15.1 14.7 15.6 15.7 -8.0 1.9
Kishtwar 11.0 15.2 13.4 14.3 14.6 15.8 15.6 -4.2 1.8
Doda 10.7 15.6 13.8 14.9 14.4 15.5 15.1 -4.9 1.8
Ramban 10.4 14.6 14.3 15.5 15.1 15.2 14.9 -4.2 0.3
Reasi 10.9 16.2 14.4 14.3 14.1 15.3 14.9 -5.2 1.8
Punch 11.1 13.2 14.9 15.3 15.1 15.7 14.6 -2.1 -1.7
Rajouri 11.1 13.3 14.7 15.2 14.8 16.1 14.9 -2.2 -1.4
Udhampur 12.4 15.2 13.5 14.5 14.2 15.3 15.0 -2.8 1.7
Jammu 13.2 14.1 13.7 14.0 14.2 15.7 15.1 -0.9 0.4
Samba 12.9 14.7 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.3 14.8 -1.7 0.8
Kathua 12.2 14.6 13.8 14.2 14.1 15.6 15.5 -2.4 0.8
Kashmir 15.1 13.1 14.3 14.0 14.6 14.7 14.9 2.0 -1.3
Ladakh 8.2 15.0 14.3 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.2 -6.8 0.7
Jammu 11.8 14.5 14.0 14.6 14.5 15.6 15.0 -2.7 0.4

35
J&K 13.6 13.6 14.2 14.2 14.5 15.0 14.9 0.0 -0.6

4.3 What does Age Specific Child Sex Ratio Reveal?

The age specific sex ratio of child population in Jammu and Kashmir reveals that the SR for
age 0 in the State was 779 (Table 13). Sex ratio has increased with an increase in age. It
increases from 847 for age 1 to 874 for age 2 and 877 for age 4 and 885 for age 6. This age
pattern of sex ratio clearly shows that there is not much change in the sex ratio between age 2
and age 6. The difference between the two ages in sex ratio is only 11. However the difference
in the sex ratio between age 0 and age 1 is 67. In Kashmir division, the sex ratio continuously
increases from 746 for age 0 to 838 for age 1, 889 for age 3, 895 for age 5 and age 6. There is
not much difference in the sex ratio between ages 2 and 6 in Kashmir. However, the difference
in Sex ratio between age 0 and age 1 is 68. In Ladakh, age specific child sex ratio has
continuously declined from 995 for age 0 to 924 for age 6. While in other two regions there is
not much sex ratio difference between age 2 and age 6, but this difference is very huge (69) in
case of Ladakh region. Further, while there is a lot of difference in sex ratio between age 0 and
1 in Kashmir, this difference in Ladakh is just 11.
Table 13: Age Specific Child Sex Ratio in Jammu and Kashmir, 2011
District All ages 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0-6
Kupwara 835 806 852 893 899 913 905 895 879
Baramulla 885 742 824 904 906 875 904 900 863
Bandipora 889 807 853 883 953 907 924 907 892
Ganderbal 874 717 846 837 891 893 928 926 863
Srinagar 900 779 858 866 893 884 900 878 865
Budgam 894 785 828 840 819 854 833 850 832
Pulwama 912 693 834 854 897 855 896 871 829
Shopian 951 655 865 938 950 961 952 952 937
Kulgam 951 700 842 941 953 945 951 958 885
Anantnag 927 720 820 852 864 854 877 912 841
Kargil 810 975 1024 993 1014 956 956 936 977
Leh 690 1029 927 994 1022 918 884 903 946
Kishtwar 920 839 878 938 972 935 937 954 924
Doda 919 896 926 935 941 934 905 982 933
Ramban 902 838 942 946 937 932 922 932 925
Reasi 890 909 911 936 940 913 901 922 919
Punch 893 836 879 912 908 893 885 924 893
Rajouri 860 858 849 851 895 878 869 852 865
Udhampur 870 914 882 890 892 875 866 892 886
Jammu 880 778 776 800 816 805 807 782 795
Samba 886 812 778 768 810 766 759 766 779
Kathua 890 824 832 841 849 829 816 830 831
KASHMIR 897 746 838 874 889 883 895 896 860
LADAKH 750 995 983 993 1,017 942 929 924 966

36
JAMMU 886 840 854 869 884 867 858 867 863
J&K 889 779 847 874 889 877 880 885 862

Within each region, there are differentials in age specific child sex ratio among various
districts. For example in Kupwara district of Kashmir region, the difference in CSR between
age 0 and age 1 is 46 and it increases to 87 between age 0 and age 2. In Baramulla also there is
a lot of decrease in CSR for age 0 and 1 beyond 1 ASCSR does not change. A difference of 162
in CSR between age 0 and 2 cannot be explained by female infanticide alone. The difference in
the CSR in various other districts of Kashmir Valley like Ganderbal, Anantnag, Pulwama,
Shopian, Kulgam between age 0 and age ranges from a high of 210 in Shopian to a low of 100
in Anantnag. These huge differences in CSR between age 0 and age 1 in just year cannot solely
be explained by female infanticide. Ramban also has a difference of 100 in the sex ratio
between age 0 and 1. Leh is the only district in the State where the sex ratio has increased by
about 100 points between age 0 and 1.

Now if we calculate the correlation between CSR at age 0 and proportion of Children at age 0,
the correlation coefficient between the two is -.86 and is significant at 0.0. This indicates with
an increase in proportion of children in age 0, there is a decline in CSR. This also signifies that
in the districts where there is a high proportion of over reporting of children in age 0, the sex
ratio is in favour of males.

4.5 The Issue of Over Reporting of Children

The above discussion clearly shows that there is a sudden rise in the proportion of very young
population and a sudden decline in very young child sex ratio. This high proportion of children
age 0 can only stem from a rebound of fertility rates in Jammu and Kashmir. But, no other
fertility estimate or the number of births registered under Health Management Information
System (HMIS) confirms any downturn in fertility decline in the state. Another possible
explanation for this discrepancy could be an inflated child population during the 2011 Census,
or on the contrary, a serious understatement of the population aged seven years or more in
2001. But, the proportion of children age 0-6 in 2001 is in conformity with the CBR, TFR
obtained from SRS and NFHS-2 and NFHS-3.

37
 Table 14: Sex Ratio at Birth as per Civil Registration
System in Jammu and Kashmir, 2006-2014
2006 906
2007 922
2008 906
2009 918
2010 917
2011 913
2012 918
2013 923
2014 914
Source: Vital Statistics of India Based on the Civil Registration System 2006-2014 annual Annual
Reports
So far as the sudden plunge in child sex ratios in various districts of J&K is concerned, many in
the state immediately opined that prenatal sex selection had suddenly shot up in Jammu and
Kashmir, and this hypothesis received a large echo in the regional, national and international
press, encouraging activists to focus on the “new evil of gender discrimination”. Yet, this
decrease in sex ratio is contradictory to that obtained from other sources. While rather low in
the mid-2000s, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) did increase in Jammu and Kashmir from 838 in
2004-06 to 873 in 2008-10, according to the SRS estimates. NFHS-3 and DLHS-3 have
reported a child sex ratio of 918 at the National level which closely matches with the Census-
2011 figure of 914. But as far as J&K is concerned, both NFHS-3 and DLHS-3 have estimated
a child sex ratio of 903-905, which is far higher than the Census 2011 figure of 859. Birth
registration data from Jammu and Kashmir also pointed to an SRB of around 900 in 2007,
significantly higher than the census-based sex ratio of the population between 0-6 years (Table
14). The SRS estimates for the population aged less than five years are also higher, since they
averaged 889 in 2004-10 without any discernible declining trend. However, there is no obvious
technical explanation for this significant decline in child sex ratio except a sudden change in
sex-selective over enumeration of boys.

The apparent rise in the proportion of the child population between 2001 and 2011 – has a
direct bearing on fertility and CBR of Jammu and Kashmir. Any rise in the child population
translates mechanically into a parallel rise in CBR and at both the district and state levels. The
estimated TFR level of 3.7 children per woman derived from the census age distribution in
Jammu and Kashmir is one of the highest in the country and represents a significant increase
from the 3.0 estimate of 10 years earlier. The recent estimates of fertility in Jammu and

38
Kashmir point, on the contrary, to a gradual decline in TFR levels in Jammu and Kashmir,
reaching respectively 2.4 children per woman in the NFHS-3 survey and an average of 2.25 for
the 6 annual SRS estimates from 2004 to 2009. As a matter of fact, the latest SRS estimate for
Jammu and Kashmir puts fertility at two children per woman in 2010, signaling a continual
decline in fertility rates in the state. The gap between the Census-based fertility estimate by
reverse survival method and other figures for the State amounts to at least 1.4 children per
woman (more than 60% in relative terms). Our district-level estimates for Jammu and Kashmir
further show that the census based fertility level has increased during 2001-11 in almost all
districts. This again is in contradiction to with what we know of regional trends, characterized
by a regular decline in fertility levels in Jammu and Kashmir, according to the SRS annual
series and NFHS series. However, we also observe that the three districts in which fertility had
in fact decreased at almost the same pace as elsewhere in India were Kathua, Jammu and
Samba. These are three adjacent districts located in the extreme south of the Jammu region and
notably characterized by the lowest proportion of Muslim population in the state (below 10%
in all the districts). We should add here that the most spectacular decline in child sex ratios
from 2001 to 2011 have been recorded also in districts of the Kashmir Valley such as Pulwama
(-210 girls per 1,000 boys), Budgam (-172), Kupwara (-167), and Gander- bal (-151). On the
contrary, the child sex ratio has remained almost stable between 2001 and 2011 in the three
districts of Kathua, Jammu and Samba, which are distinguished by normal fertility trends.

4.6 What Actually Happened During Census Enumeration in 2011?

Due to the disturbances and ongoing militancy, conduct of census in a sensitive State like J&K
has been a challenging job since 1991. Due to opposition from the militant organizations and
the consequent the security concerns, Census could not be conducted in J&K in 1991. During
2001 also, militants were opposed to the conduct of census and issued threats to the staff
participating in census enumeration. This created a sense of insecurity both among the
enumerating staff as well as the general public, but Government wanted to have a census at all
costs and consequently, there was not much cooperation from the staff involved in census as
well as public particularly in Kashmir region and Muslim dominated areas of Jammu division.
Consequently, when the Census 2001 results were out, there were very few takers and even the
various State Departments questioned the quality of Census data. For example, the State
Government not satisfied with the overall sex ratio figures of 2001 Census, conducted a special
Sex Ratio Census in the State in 2003. Civil society doubted the figures pertaining to the
religious composition of the State and a good number of write-ups appeared in the local press
criticizing the Government of India for deliberately changing the religious composition of the
39
State by including non state subjects. During 2011, though the militant organizations did not
oppose the conduct of census but requested all Muslims of the State to get enumerated and the
Census staff of the Valley was asked to fulfill all obligations towards its community, so that the
Muslim majority character of the State gets reflected in the Census 2011. Thus, the conduct of
census during the last three decades in J&K has been much politicized and is used as a weapon
both by the militant organizations as well as by the State Government to show their strength.

The separatists time and again and even the Kashmir based political parties sitting in
opposition (whether National Conference or Peoples Democratic Party) have been warning the
government about changing the demographic composition of the State. So many write ups have
appeared in the local media and are still appearing that Government of India has a plan to
change the religious composition of the State by issuing the domicile certificates to non
residents. In fact at the time of house listing operations in May 2010, Syed Ali Shah Geelani,
Chairman of the Hurriyat Conference spoke about “a planned conspiracy to change the
Muslim majority of the state” through the census. This change in the religious composition of
the State may help the Government of India in case India is compelled to hold plebiscite in
Jammu and Kashmir. He warned the government to desist from making any change in the
Muslim majority character of the State and asked the Muslims of the State to defeat this
conspiracy. The recent uproar in the State Assembly and the shutdown in Kashmir on this issue
also bear testimony to the fact that the issue of demographic/religious composition of the State
is very sensitive issue and can be exploited easily by anyone having vested interests.

During the second phase of the Census operation (enumeration) two types of wild rumors
started to circulate in the State. The first pertained to the enumeration of non state subjects in
Jammu region in Census and the second pertained to the use of Census population for issuing
new ration cards. It was rumored that that Hindu enumerators in Jammu division in a bid to
exaggerate the share of Hindus population are enumerating migrants and non-state subjects and
even refugees from Pakistan (Sharnarthis).

Jammu and Kashmir is a food importing State, and almost food items like Rice, Atta, Sugar,
Kerosene is distributed through public distribution system. Households in the State get these
food items as per the number of household members registered in the Ration card. These ration
cards have not been updated for so many years and there are large scale fake ration cards and
even some families have more than one ration card and some families had none. So
government had a plan to use the Census 2011 population as the basis for issuing new ration

40
cards. Therefore there was a rumor that Census 2011 will be used by the Government to
include or exclude persons from ration cards. Therefore, people generally over reported the
number of household members.

The fear of a census conspiracy to inflate Jammu’s population in general and Hindu population
in particular has induced people in the Kashmir Valley, to overstate their own household
population by adding non-existent children and also enumerating those household members
who had recently died. Since the separatists fully supported the Census and advised all the
enumerators to fulfill their obligation towards their society, so some enumerators supported this
business of politicilization of Census. It appears that many enumerators and the public in the
Kashmir region particularly in South Kashmir, which is still considered to be a stronghold of
separatists and militancy, have resorted to a systematic exaggeration of their household
population in order to boost the overall share of Muslims in the State and within families.
Some of the census enumerators encouraged and found novel ways to add non-existent
members and household members who had expired in the recent past. The enumerators found
that adding non- existent children to one’s family was the easiest procedure to inflate a
population total during the census, since there are far less columns to fill up in the
questionnaire. Most variables for children such as mother tongue, occupation, education, or
migration status can be quickly entered in the census schedule as 0, or duplicated from the
mother’s response. Incidentally, sex ratio levels suggest that in trying to inflate their child
population, many enumerators seem to have invented boys rather than girls – as if reporting
non-existent boys was easier or more spontaneous. The following three narratives from the
Enumerators are representatives of what most other enumerators did during the Census.

1. I was told by my supervisor that enumerated population in the assigned village is less as
compared to the expected population. I was asked to add 20 more household members in the
village. So I revisited some of the households where either there was a pregnant lady in the last
trimester or where there was a death in the recent past. All third trimester pregnant ladies were
shown to have delivered a live birth. If the lady already had a daughter, this one was shown to
be a son and if it was the first pregnancy, it was generally recorded as a son.

2. I visited a household for enumeration. The household was very poor but very humble. There
was a lady in the household who had delivered a male boy some two months back but
unfortunately, this baby had expired soon after the birth. I just added the expired infant in the
household roster, so that an additional member is included in the ration card.

41
3. I was asked to add few members and I revisited a household to include some more members.
During, the revisit I found a household who had very recently lost the breadwinner in an
accident. The expired person was enumerated as a living person to meet the target.

The above narratives clearly indicate that the general public were interested in over-
enumerating the household members in order to get more subsidized commodities and they
were fully supported by the Census staff in this business by inventing novel ways to add
nonexistent souls. This helped them to keep happy both the separatists and the household
heads. These enumerators could least anticipate that this systematic enumerating of unborn
children and infant deaths can disturb the age structure. Further, the enumerators were biased in
reporting male children; this resulted in skewed sex composition of the child population. The
new sources of data like Health Management Information System completely contradict with
the Census child sex ratio of various districts of Kashmir and is therefore an ample proof that
large scale over reporting of child population and systematic under reporting of females in
various districts of J&K has taken place during Census, 2011.

4.7 Latest Estimates of Sex Ratio at Birth

Data on sex ratio at birth is also available from the Health Management Information System
(HMIS), webportal dedicated by the Government of India to upload information about more
than 300 health related indicators. The HMIS contains information since 2009-10 for all the
districts of India. Among various indicators, HMIS also collects information about the sex of
the new born babies. Although, HMIS data has some data quality issues like over reporting of
ANC services, immunization or under reporting of deliveries. However, over the last few
years, the quality of data under HMIS has improved to a great extent. In fact sex ratio at birth is
one indicator, which does not have any data quality issues. However, there is one issue with
HMIS data. It is basically facility based information, so if a woman from Pulwama district
delivered a baby in a hospital in Srinagar, the child will be reported and counted in Srinagar
district. This, system therefore will increase the number of babies born in Srinagar and Jammu
and will slightly result in corresponding decline in the number of births in remaining districts.
However, such a system is not going to change much the sex ratio at births at the district or
regional levels. The advantage of HMIS data is that it is regularly uploaded on monthly basis
from all the facilities in the state. The number of babies delivered at home is also uploaded on
the website. If we look at the HMIS data for the last 6 years (2010-2016), information about
gender of babies is available for 1072331 babies. Roughly, 160000-200000 infants are

42
uploaded on HMIs website annually. So this number is very huge and therefore the SRB
derived from this huge number of infants is highly reliable.

Table 15: HMIS Sex Ratio at Birth in Jammu and Kashmir 2010-2016
District/Region 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2010-2016
Kupwara 922 950 966 986 973 1027 967
Baramulla 918 988 987 960 967 948 962
Bandipora 978 888 961 975 880 964 942
Ganderbal 910 969 950 964 984 985 959
Srinagar 1238 1123 909 978 944 957 969
Budgam 912 985 1013 1024 972 988 979
Pulwama 954 985 949 963 983 949 964
Shopian 928 999 962 980 962 1062 970
Kulgam 921 963 953 942 937 1057 961
Anantnag 966 954 938 976 985 1000 970
Kargil 1052 850 813 994 971 940 940
Leh 981 849 925 961 992 832 923
Kishtwar 896 883 954 878 917 978 917
Doda 913 865 885 897 942 916 903
Ramban 922 883 865 937 913 954 913
Reasi 969 838 875 915 936 917 909
Poonch 889 894 892 892 911 926 900
Rajouri 932 897 965 976 947 947 946
Udhampur 923 878 900 845 868 880 881
Jammu 817 820 855 883 911 886 864
Samba 851 779 862 896 928 908 868
Kathua 883 832 820 862 862 873 855
Jammu & Kashmir 909 921 913 937 936 942 927
Kashmir 945 999 942 976 958 977 966
Ladakh 1020 850 864 978 981 890 932
Jammu 881 856 885 895 911 909 890

The sex ratio at birth obtained from for 2010-2016 from the HMIS portal is depicted in Table
15. It shows that HMIS recorded about 1.72 lakh births during 20010-2011 (Census year) and
recorded an SRB of 909 which is far higher than the Census 2001 SRB of 779. Thus the
difference in SRB between the two sources during the same year in the State is 130. This
difference is as high as 200 in Kashmir region and 41 in Jammu region. The difference in SRB
in Ladakh division is small (25). Thus while it is true that SRB in the State is low but the
situation is not so bad as portrayed by Census. Census gave an impression that the unethical
practice of sex selective infanticide has now penetrated into the rural areas but HMIS data
makes it clear crystal that this practice seems to be concentrated mainly in the Hindu
dominated districts of Jammu region.

43
HMIS data for 2010-11 shows that, barring Srinagar, the SRB in various districts does not vary
much. It ranged from a high of 978 in Bandipora to a low a 910 in Ganderbal. The SRB in
Srinagar was reported to be 1238. In Ladakh region, Kargil reported a SRB of 1052 and Leh
also had a high SRB of 981.

However, in Jammu region, there is a lot of variation in SRB among various districts. Six
districts namely Doda, Ramban, Reasi, Rajouri, Udhampur, Kishtwar have a sex ratio ranging
of 900 or more. But Kathua, Samba and Jammu have a SRB of 800-900. Samba and Jammu in
particular reported the lowest SRBs during 2010-11. Now if we combined SRB of the last 6
years (2010-2016), it again shows that all the 10 districts of Kashmir have fairly a balanced sex
ratio. Both the districts of Ladakh region also have more or less a natural sex ratio. However, in
Jammu division, only Rajouri has a balanced sex ratio at birth. The SRB at birth in the districts
located in the Pir Panjal Region and Chenab Valley region is around 900. However, the SRB in
Udhampur, Jammu, Samba and Kathua is very low (855-881). Thus when the Census 2011,
results were out and the decline in Child Sex Ratio in Kashmir Valley received a lot of
attention both in press as well as electronic media. Everybody believed that this decline in CSR
in Kashmir region is rare and attributed it to female feticide. Thus the efforts of the
government to stop this unethical practice focused more on Kashmir and in this process it
appears that the practice of female feticide continued unabated in Jammu region particularly in
the 3 districts namely Jammu, Samba and Kathua. This is particularly the reason as to why
there is no decline in CSR in these three districts and the CSR has further improved in Kashmir
region.

44
 CHAPTER-5
Conclusion
5.1 The overall sex ratio in Jammu and Kashmir has declined but the situation is not as grim as
depicted by Census, 2011. If we calculate the sex ratio for the population age 7 years and
above, there is a dramatic improvement in the sex ratio.

5.2 However, once we look at the Child Population, 0-6 years, the Census has shown a sharp
decline in child sex ratio. But at the same time it has shown an increase in the percentage of
population age 6, indicating that there has been an increase in crude birth rate in Jammu and
Kashmir during the 6 years before the Census. Surprisingly, it is only J&K where an increase
in the fertility and increase in the proportion of children 0-6 can be observed. All States which
are not so developed as J&K have also witnessed a decline in fertility. Further, other credible
sources of data like SRS, NFHS, HMIS show a clear decline in the fertility rates of J&K,
therefore, there is a contradiction between Census CBR and CBR based on other credible
surveys in Jammu and Kashmir. This clearly indicates, that there Census 2011 child population
is over reported in various districts of J&K.

5.3 While calculating the CBR at regional level, it can be observed, that this issue of
contradiction in fertility estimates between Census and Survey is more evident in Kashmir
region than in Ladakh and Jammu region. Within the Jammu region also there are only three
districts namely Jammu, Samba and Kathua, where there is an agreement in fertility in the two
sources. While analyzing the CBR and Child Sex Ratio, it was found that districts which have
a very low sex ratio happen to be districts which have a high CBR.

5.4 If we analyse the age specific Child Sex Ratio, it can be seen that CSR increases with age
and in fact the sex ratio for most districts in the State particularly in Kashmir region is fairly
high for ages 2-6. CSR is low for all ages in Jammu, Kathua, and Samba, these three districts
are notorious for sex selective infanticide and these three districts had a low child sex ratio in
2001 also. There is also a very strong negative correlation between sex ratio at age 0 and
percentage of population age 0 among various districts of the State, indicating that the districts
which have reported a higher percentage of child population have a very low child sex ratio.

45
5.5 The results of this study show that the SRB is extremely very low in almost all districts
particularly in districts with a high proportion of children age 0 and the difference in sex ratio
between age 0 and age 1 in some districts is more than 200 and nowhere in the world, this
much of decline in sex ratio has taken place in single year and nowhere in the world, an
increase in fertility of the magnitude of J&K has taken placed in a single, year, therefore, it is
more likely that child population in most districts of J&K particularly in Kashmir region is
over reported and in his process of over reporting, the enumerators seem to be biased in favour
of male children, probably due to the fact that son preference in the State is as strong as in
other parts of the country.

5.6 The SRB in the State as per HMIS has increased slightly during the last 7 years. The SRB
is almost normal in the districts located in Kashmir and Muslim majority districts located in
Jammu region. However, there is not much improvement in SRB in Jammu, Udhampur, samba
and Kathua. So government efforts which due to Census 2011 results were misdirected on
Kashmir region should now focus more in these four districts and there is a need to implement
PCPNDT Act in the Jammu region particularly in Kathua, samba, Jammu and Udhampur and
some areas of Rajauri like Sunderbani and Nowshersa.

46
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