Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture in India

INTRODUCTION
Global warming, defined by the gradual increase in Earth’s temperature due to human
activities, represents a critical challenge globally. Its wide-ranging effects are felt across
various sectors, with agriculture being particularly vulnerable, especially in countries like
India, where the economy and livelihoods are deeply intertwined with farming. India's
agricultural sector is heavily dependent on climate, particularly the monsoon, which
influences crop production. Given that over half of India's population is engaged in farming,
the effects of global warming on agriculture are profound, potentially affecting food security
and the socio-economic fabric of the country. This article delves into the impact of global
warming on India’s agriculture, analyzing key indicators such as crop yields, water
availability, soil health, and the socio-economic conditions of farmers. It also explores
strategies for adaptation and mitigation.

ANALYSIS
1. Impact on Crop Yields
Global warming has a direct influence on crop yields, affecting the overall productivity and
economic sustainability of agriculture in India.

1.1 Temperature Changes

India has observed a significant increase in average temperatures, rising by approximately
0.7°C from 1901 to 2018. Future projections indicate that temperatures could rise by an
additional 1.5-3°C by the end of the 21st century, depending on emission levels. This
temperature rise is already impacting crop yields.

Wheat: Wheat, which accounts for a substantial portion of global production, is particularly
sensitive to temperature changes. The optimal temperature range for wheat growth is
between 21-24°C. However, research suggests that for every 1°C increase in temperature,
wheat yields could decline by 4-5%. With India producing roughly 100 million tonnes of
wheat annually, this could mean a loss of 4-5 million tonnes each year.

Rice: Rice, another crucial staple crop, also suffers from rising temperatures. A 1°C increase
in temperature can lead to a 3-10% reduction in rice yields. Given that rice is cultivated on
over 44 million hectares in India, producing around 118 million tonnes annually, this
temperature rise could result in a potential loss of 3.5-11.8 million tonnes.
1.2 Changes in Precipitation Patterns

India’s agriculture is highly dependent on the monsoon, which provides 70-90% of the
country’s annual rainfall. However, the Indian Meteorological Department has recorded a
6% reduction in monsoon rainfall from 1951 to 2017. This decrease, along with increasing
variability in rainfall, poses significant risks to crop production.

Rabi and Kharif Crops: The Kharif season, involving crops like rice, maize, and cotton, is
particularly dependent on monsoon rains. Unpredictable monsoon patterns and reduced
rainfall during critical growth phases can lead to yield reductions of up to 10-15% for these
crops. Similarly, Rabi crops, including wheat and barley, are affected by decreased soil
moisture due to erratic monsoon rains.

Droughts: The frequency of droughts in India has increased, with the country experiencing
15 drought years between 2000 and 2020, a marked increase compared to previous
decades. Drought conditions severely impact crop yields, especially in rain-fed areas, leading
to losses of up to 20-30% in affected regions.

2. Impact on Water Resources

Water scarcity is an escalating issue in India, further intensified by global warming, which
significantly affects agriculture.

2.1 Declining Water Availability

Glacial Retreat: The Himalayan glaciers, critical for feeding the major rivers in northern
India, are retreating at a rate of 10-15 meters annually. Initially, this accelerated glacial melt
increases river flows, but in the long term, it will reduce water availability during the dry
season, impacting irrigation across millions of hectares of farmland.

Groundwater Depletion: India is the largest consumer of groundwater worldwide, with

agriculture accounting for about 90% of its usage. States like Punjab and Haryana, which are
major contributors to wheat and rice production, have experienced groundwater levels
dropping by over 1 meter per year over the last decade due to excessive extraction and
insufficient recharge.

Irrigation: India has approximately 68 million hectares of irrigated land, with 60% reliant on
groundwater. With declining groundwater levels, the irrigated area is expected to shrink,
leading to reduced crop productivity. For instance, a study by the Indian Institute of
Technology highlighted that a 10% reduction in groundwater availability could decrease
food production by 5-10% in affected areas.

2.2 Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events

Floods: The incidence of floods in India has risen by nearly 20% over the last three decades.
Floods can devastate large agricultural areas, particularly in states like Bihar and Assam,
causing significant crop losses, soil erosion, and damage to infrastructure. In 2019 alone,
floods impacted 18 million hectares of agricultural land, leading to an estimated $2.6 billion
in crop value losses.

Cyclones: Coastal agriculture is increasingly threatened by cyclones, which have intensified

due to global warming. For example, Cyclone Amphan in 2020 caused extensive damage to
agriculture in West Bengal, destroying crops over 1.5 million hectares and resulting in losses
exceeding $13 billion.

3. Impact on Soil Health

Soil health is fundamental to agricultural productivity, and global warming contributes to
soil degradation in various ways.

3.1 Soil Erosion and Degradation

Soil Erosion: India loses about 5.3 billion tonnes of soil annually due to erosion, which
reduces agricultural productivity by an estimated 0.8% each year. This issue is worsened by
extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and floods, which wash away the nutrient-rich
topsoil.

Salinization: Rising sea levels, driven by global warming, are causing saltwater intrusion into
coastal agricultural lands, especially in states like Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Approximately 2
million hectares of arable land in India are already affected by salinization, reducing crop
yields by up to 50% in some regions.

3.2 Decline in Soil Fertility

Nutrient Loss: Global warming-induced changes in soil temperature and moisture content
are accelerating the decomposition of organic matter in the soil, leading to a decline in soil
fertility. Studies have found that the organic carbon content of Indian soils has decreased by
22% over the past 50 years, mainly due to rising temperatures and unsustainable
agricultural practices.

Chemical Use: The increasing reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides to maintain crop
yields has led to nutrient imbalances and a decline in soil health. In Punjab, for instance,
excessive use of urea has depleted soil micronutrients, reducing the soil's capacity to
support healthy crop growth.

4. Socio-Economic Impact on Farmers

Global warming's socio-economic impact on Indian farmers is significant, affecting their
livelihoods, income levels, and overall well-being.

4.1 Loss of Livelihoods

Income Reduction: The decline in crop yields due to global warming directly impacts
farmers' incomes. In 2019, the average annual income of a farming household in India was
around ₹1,20,000 ($1,600), with smallholder farmers (those owning less than 2 hectares)
earning less than ₹30,000 ($400) per year. Climate-induced crop failures can reduce these
incomes by 20-30%, pushing many farmers below the poverty line.

Migration: Declining agricultural productivity and rising indebtedness are forcing many
farmers to migrate to urban areas in search of alternative employment. According to the
National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), rural-urban migration in India increased by 12%
between 2001 and 2011, with a significant portion of this migration attributed to
agricultural distress.

4.2 Food Security Challenges

Yield Decline: The potential 10-15% decline in the yields of major crops like rice and wheat
due to global warming could severely impact India’s food security. The country needs to
increase its food production by at least 50% by 2050 to meet the demands of its growing
population, but climate change threatens to make this target unattainable.

Nutritional Quality: Research has shown that higher atmospheric CO2 levels can reduce the
protein content of staple crops like wheat and rice by 5-10%. This decline in nutritional
quality is particularly concerning for India, where malnutrition is already a significant issue,
affecting 38% of children under five years of age.
5. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
India must implement various adaptation and mitigation strategies to tackle the significant
challenges posed by global warming.

5.1 Development of Climate-Resilient Crops

Crop Varieties: Developing and adopting climate-resilient crop varieties is essential for
sustaining agricultural productivity. For instance, drought-resistant rice and wheat varieties
developed by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) can endure higher
temperatures and water stress, ensuring more stable yields. By 2020, around 25% of India's
rice area was cultivated with climate-resilient varieties, contributing to yield stability in
drought-prone regions.

Agroforestry: Agroforestry practices, which involve integrating trees into agricultural

landscapes, can improve soil health, conserve water, and provide additional income sources
for farmers. The National Agroforestry Policy (2014) aims to expand the area under
agroforestry from 25 million hectares to 50 million hectares by 2030.

5.2 Sustainable Water Management

Drip Irrigation: Promoting efficient irrigation systems like drip and sprinkler irrigation can
substantially reduce water use in agriculture. The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
(PMKSY) seeks to increase the area under micro-irrigation from 10 million hectares to 20
million hectares by 2025, potentially saving up to 40% of water compared to traditional
methods.

Rainwater Harvesting: Building infrastructure for rainwater harvesting and watershed

management is crucial for ensuring water availability in rain-fed regions. The Mahatma
Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) has played a significant role
in promoting watershed development, with over 20 million hectares of land treated under
the program by 2020.

5.3 Policy Interventions and Government Support

Crop Insurance: The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) provides insurance
coverage for crop losses due to extreme weather events. As of 2020, the scheme covered 55
million farmers, but there is a need to enhance its reach and efficiency to ensure that all
vulnerable farmers are protected.
Subsidies for Climate-Resilient Technologies: Providing subsidies for climate-resilient
technologies, such as solar pumps and drought-resistant seeds, can encourage farmers to
adopt sustainable practices. The Kisan Urja Suraksha Evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan (KUSUM)
scheme, launched in 2019, aims to install 2 million solar pumps by 2022, reducing
dependence on fossil fuels and ensuring reliable irrigation.

5.4 International Cooperation

Climate Finance: India can benefit from international climate finance mechanisms like the
Green Climate Fund (GCF), which supports adaptation and mitigation projects in developing
countries. By 2020, India had accessed $200 million from the GCF for various climate-
resilient agriculture projects, but more resources are needed to scale up these initiatives.

Knowledge Sharing: International collaboration on research and development of climate-

resilient agriculture can help India address the challenges posed by global warming.
Partnerships with institutions like the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and the
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) have already led
to the development of several climate-resilient crop varieties suited to Indian conditions.

CONCLUSION
Global warming presents a serious challenge to agriculture in India, with far-reaching
consequences for crop yields, water resources, soil health, and the livelihoods of millions of
farmers. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, along with
rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, are making agriculture more
vulnerable and unpredictable.

To mitigate these impacts, India must adopt a comprehensive approach that includes the
development of climate-resilient crops, sustainable water management practices, targeted
policy interventions, and international cooperation. Through concerted efforts and strategic
planning, India can build a more resilient agricultural sector capable of withstanding the
impacts of global warming, thereby ensuring food security for its growing population.

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