Reading 38 Backtesting and Simulation
Reading 38 Backtesting and Simulation
In the presence of return distribution asymmetry and excess kurtosis, the most appropriate
approach would be to make use of a Monte Carlo simulation using a:
A) F-distribution.
B) normal distribution.
C) skewed Student’s t-distribution.
Which of the following metrics are most likely to be reported in a backtest of an investment
strategy?
Which of the following is the least likely to result from using information that would have
been unavailable at the time of the investment decision?
A) Survivorship bias.
B) Look-ahead bias.
C) Data snooping.
A) Positive skewness.
B) Negative skewness.
C) Excess kurtosis.
Bill Cassidy, CFA, is the portfolio manager for Applied Logistics pension fund. Cassidy is
meeting with Alex Swary, the senior quantitative analyst, to discuss the results of backtesting
of a model developed by Swary. The model uses several factors in selecting stocks, including
EPS growth over the past year, the industry competitiveness index, and price-to-book ratio.
The model makes picks on the first trading day of each calendar year with annual
rebalancing.
While evaluating the results of backtesting, Cassidy should be most likely concerned with:
In conducting a sensitivity analysis, an analyst is most likely to take fat tails and negative
skewness into account by repeating a Monte Carlo simulation using a multivariate:
A) Bernoulli distribution.
B) normal distribution.
C) skewed Student’s t-distribution.
Which of the following most accurately describes the steps in backtesting an investment
strategy?
A) In the “strategy design” step, we form investment portfolios for each period.
In the “historical investment simulation” step, we rebalance the portfolio
B)
periodically.
In the “historical investment simulation” step, we calculate portfolio performance
C)
statistics.
Backtesting the performance of the strategy, assuming that the CBOE VIX Index is
A)
greater than 55.
Backtesting the performance of the strategy during the great recession, a period
B)
following the global financial crisis of 2008.
Backtesting the performance of the strategy during the high market return period of
C)
2017–2018.