humanities
humanities
2
What is Finance?
10
Evolution of financial management
Concepts of Value
and Return
Chapter Objectives
Understand what gives money its time value.
Explain the methods of calculating present
and future values.
Highlight the use of present value technique
(discounting) in financial decisions.
Introduce the concept of internal rate of
return.
2
Financial Management, Ninth
Time Preference for Money
Time preference for money is an
individual’s preference for possession of a
given amount of money now, rather than the
same amount at some future time.
Three reasons may be attributed to the
individual’s time preference for money:
risk
preference for consumption
investment opportunities
3
Financial Management, Ninth
Required Rate of Return
The time preference for money is generally
expressed by an interest rate. This rate will be
positive even in the absence of any risk. It may
be therefore called the risk-free rate.
An investor requires compensation for assuming
risk, which is called risk premium.
The investor’s required rate of return is:
Risk-free rate + Risk premium.
4
Financial Management, Ninth
Time Value Adjustment
5
Financial Management, Ninth
Future Value
Compounding is the process of finding the future
values of cash flows by applying the concept of
compound interest.
Compound interest is the interest that is received on
the original amount (principal) as well as on any
interest earned but not withdrawn during earlier
periods.
Simple interest is the interest that is calculated only
on the original amount (principal), and thus, no
compounding of interest takes place.
6
Financial Management, Ninth
Future Value
The general form of equation for calculating
the future value of a lump sum after n periods
may, therefore, be written as follows:
F n P(1 i ) n
The term (1 + i)n is the compound value
factor (CVF) of a lump sum of Re 1, and it
always has a value greater than 1 for positive
i, indicating that CVF increases as i and n
increase.
Fn =P CVFn,i
7
Financial Management, Ninth
Example
If you deposited Rs 55,650 in a bank, which
was paying a 15 per cent rate of interest on a
ten-year time deposit, how much would the
deposit grow at the end of ten years?
8
Financial Management, Ninth
Future Value of an Annuity
Annuity is a fixed payment (or receipt) each
year for a specified number of years. If you rent
a flat and promise to make a series of
payments over an agreed period, you have
created an annuity.
(1 i)n 1
Fn A
i
The term within brackets is the compound
value factor for an annuity of Re 1, which we
shall refer as CVFA.
Fn =A CVFAn,i
9
Financial Management, Ninth
Example
Suppose that a firm deposits Rs 5,000 at the
end of each year for four years at 6 per cent
rate of interest. How much would this annuity
accumulate at the end of the fourth year? We
first find CVFA which is 4.3746. If we multiply
4.375 by Rs 5,000, we obtain a compound
value of Rs 21,875:
F4 5,000(CVFA4, 0.06 ) 5,000 4.3746 Rs 21,873
10
Financial Management, Ninth
Sinking Fund
Sinking fund is a fund, which is created out of
fixed payments each period to accumulate to a
future sum after a specified period. For
example, companies generally create sinking
funds to retire bonds (debentures) on maturity.
The factor used to calculate the annuity for a
given future sum is called the sinking fund
factor (SFF).
i
A = Fn
(1 i) n
1
11
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value
Present value of a future cash flow (inflow or
outflow) is the amount of current cash that is
of equivalent value to the decision-maker.
Discounting is the process of determining
present value of a series of future cash flows.
The interest rate used for discounting cash
flows is also called the discount rate.
12
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value of a Single Cash Flow
The following general formula can be employed to
calculate the present value of a lump sum to be
received after some future periods:
Fn
P n
Fn
(1 i) n
(1 i)
The term in parentheses is the discount factor or
present value factor (PVF), and it is always less
than 1.0 for positive i, indicating that a future amount
has a smaller present value.
PV Fn PVFn,i
13
Financial Management, Ninth
Example
Suppose that an investor wants to find out
the present value of Rs 50,000 to be
received after 15 years. Her interest rate is
9 per cent. First, we will find out the present
value factor, which is 0.275. Multiplying
0.275 by Rs 50,000, we obtain Rs 13,750 as
the present value:
PV = 50,000 PVF15, 0.09 = 50,000 0.275 = Rs 13,750
14
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value of an Annuity
The computation of the present value of an
annuity can be written in the following general
form:
1 1
P A n
i i 1 i
15
Financial Management, Ninth
Capital Recovery and Loan
Amortisation
Capital recovery is the annuity of an investment
made today for a specified period of time at a
given rate of interest. Capital recovery factor
helps in the preparation of a loan amortisation
(loan repayment) schedule.
1
A= P
PVAFn,i
A = P × CRFn,i
The reciprocal of the present value annuity factor
is called the capital recovery factor (CRF).
16
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value of an Uneven Periodic
Sum
Investments made by of a firm do not
frequently yield constant periodic cash flows
(annuity). In most instances the firm receives
a stream of uneven cash flows. Thus the
present value factors for an annuity cannot be
used. The procedure is to calculate the
present value of each cash flow and
aggregate all present values.
17
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value of Perpetuity
Perpetuity is an annuity that occurs
indefinitely. Perpetuities are not very common
in financial decision-making:
Perpetuity
Present value of a perpetuity
Interest rate
18
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value of Growing Annuities
The present value of a constantly growing
annuity is given below:
P = A 1 1 g
n
i g 1 i
Present value of a constantly growing
perpetuity is given by a simple formula as
follows:
A
P=
i–g
19
Financial Management, Ninth
Value of an Annuity Due
Annuity due is a series of fixed receipts or
payments starting at the beginning of each
period for a specified number of periods.
Future Value of an Annuity Due
Fn = A CVFAn,i × (1 i)
Present Value of an Annuity Due
P = A × PVFAn, i × (1 + i)
20
Financial Management, Ninth
Multi-PeriodCompounding
If compounding is done more than once a
year, the actual annualised rate of interest
would be higher than the nominal interest rate
and it is called the effective interest rate.
nm
i
EIR = 1 – 1
m
21
Financial Management, Ninth
Continuous Compounding
The continuous compounding function takes
the form of the following formula:
Fn P ei n P ex
Present value under continuous compounding:
Fn F × ei n
P n
ei n
22
Financial Management, Ninth
Net Present Value
Net present value (NPV) of a financial
decision is the difference between the present
value of cash inflows and the present value of
cash outflows.
n
NPV =
Ct
t
C0
t 1 (1 + k)
23
Financial Management, Ninth
Present Value and Rate of Return
A bond that pays some specified amount in
future (without periodic interest) in exchange for
the current price today is called a zero-interest
bond or zero-coupon bond. In such situations,
you would be interested to know what rate of
interest the advertiser is offering. You can use
the concept of present value to find out the rate
of return or yield of these offers.
The rate of return of an investment is called
internal rate of return since it depends
exclusively on the cash flows of the investment.
24
Financial Management, Ninth
Internal Rate of Return
The formula for Internal Rate of Return is
given below. Here, all parameters are given
except ‘r’ which can be found by trial and
error.
n
NPV =
Ct
t
C0 0
t 1 (1 + r)
25
Financial Management, Ninth
Chapter - 3
2
Financial Management, Ninth
Introduction
Assets can be real or financial; securities like
shares and bonds are called financial assets
while physical assets like plant and
machinery are called real assets.
The concepts of return and risk, as the
determinants of value, are as fundamental
and valid to the valuation of securities as to
that of physical assets.
3
Financial Management, Ninth
Concept of Value
Book Value
Replacement Value
Liquidation Value
Going Concern Value
Market Value
4
Financial Management, Ninth
Features of a Bond
Face Value
Interest Rate—fixed or floating
Maturity
Redemption value
Market Value
5
Financial Management, Ninth
Bonds Values and Yields
Bonds with maturity
Pure discount bonds
Perpetual bonds
6
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond with Maturity
Bond value = Present value of interest + Present
value of maturity value:
n
INTt Bn
B0
t 1 (1 kd )t (1 kd )n
7
Financial Management, Ninth
Yield to Maturity
The yield-to-maturity (YTM) is the measure
of a bond’s rate of return that considers both
the interest income and any capital gain or
loss. YTM is bond’s internal rate of return.
A perpetual bond’s yield-to-maturity:
n
INT INT
B0 t
t 1 (1 kd ) kd
8
Financial Management, Ninth
Current Yield
Current yield is the annual interest divided bythe
bond’s current value.
Example: The annual interest is Rs 60 on the
current investment of Rs 883.40. Therefore, the
current rate of return or the current yield is:
60/883.40 = 6.8 per cent.
Current yield does not account for the capital gain
or loss.
9
Financial Management, Ninth
Yield to Call
For calculating the yield to call, the call period
would be different from the maturity period and
the call (or redemption) value could be different
from the maturity value.
Example: Suppose the 10% 10-year Rs 1,000
bond is redeemable (callable) in 5 years at a call
price of Rs 1,050. The bond is currently selling
for Rs 950.The bond’s yield to call is 12.7%.
5
950
100 1,050
t 1 1 YTC t 1 YTC 5
10
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond Value and Amortisation of
Principal
A bond (debenture) may be amortised every
year, i.e., repayment of principal every year
rather at maturity.
The formula for determining the value of a bond
or debenture that is amortised every year, can
be written as follows:
n
CFt
B0 t
t 1 (1 kd )
12
Financial Management, Ninth
Pure Discount Bonds
Example: A company may issue a pure
discount bond of Rs 1,000 face value for
Rs 520 today for a period of five years.
The rate of interest can be calculated as
follows:
1,000
520
1 YTM 5
1 YTM 5
1,000
1.9231
520
i 1.92311/5 1 0.14 or 14%
13
Financial Management, Ninth
Pure Discount Bonds
Pure discount bonds are called deep-
discount bonds or zero-interest bonds or
zero-coupon bonds.
The market interest rate, also called the
market yield, is used as the discount rate.
Value of a pure discount bond = PV of the
amount on maturity:
Mn
B0
1 kd n
14
Financial Management, Ninth
Perpetual Bonds
Perpetual bonds, also called consols, has an
indefinite life and therefore, it has no maturity
value. Perpetual bonds or debentures are rarely
found in practice.
15
Financial Management, Ninth
Perpetual Bonds
Suppose that a 10 per cent Rs 1,000 bond will
pay Rs 100 annual interest into perpetuity. What
would be its value of the bond if the market yield
or interest rate were 15 per cent?
The value of the bond is determined as follows:
INT 100
B0 Rs 667
kd 0.15
16
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond Values and Changes in
Interest Rates
The value of the bond
declines as the market
interest rate (discount 1200.0
rate) increases. 1000.0
BondValue
12 per cent Rs 1,000 600.0
17
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond Maturity and Interest Rate
Risk
The intensity of interest rate
risk would be higher on
bonds with long maturities
than bonds with short
maturities. PresentValue(Rs)
Discountrate(%) 5-Yearbond 10-Yearbond Perpetualbond
The differential value 5 1,216 1,386 2,000
response to interest rates 10 1,000 1,000 1,000
changes between short and 15 832 749 667
long-term bonds will always
be true. Thus, two bonds of 20 701 581 500
same quality (in terms of the 25 597 464 400
risk of default) would have 30 513 382 333
different exposure to
interest rate risk.
18
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond Maturity and Interest Rate
Risk
2000
5-year bond
1750 10-year bond
1500 Perpetual bond
Value (Rs)
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
5 10 15 20 25 30
Discount rate (%)
19
Financial Management, Ninth
Bond Durationand Interest
Rate Sensitivity
The longer the maturity of a bond, the higher
will be its sensitivity to the interest rate
changes. Similarly, the price of a bond with
low coupon rate will be more sensitive to the
interest rate changes.
However, the bond’s price sensitivity can be
more accurately estimated by its duration. A
bond’s duration is measured as the weighted
average of times to each cash flow (interest
payment or repayment of principal).
20
Financial Management, Ninth
Durationof Bonds
Let us consider the
8.5 per cent rate bond 8.5 Percent Bond
of Rs 1,000 face Year Cash Flow
Present Value
at 10 %
Proportion of
Bond Price
Proportion of
Bond Price x Time
value that has a 1 85 77.27 0.082 0.082
2 85 70.25 0.074 0.149
current market value 3 85 63.86 0.068 0.203
4 85 58.06 0.062 0.246
of Rs 954.74 and a 5 1,085 673.70 0.714 3.572
943.14 1.000 4.252
YTM of 10 per cent, 11.5 Percent Bond
Yield (%)
7.5%
7.18%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.90%
5.5%
Maturity
5.0% (Years )
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 >10
23
Financial Management, Ninth
The Term Structure of Interest Rates
The upward sloping yield curve implies that
the long-term yields are higher than the short-
term yields. This is the normal shape of the
yield curve, which is generally verified by
historical evidence.
However, many economies in high-inflation
periods have witnessed the short-term yields
being higher than the long-term yields. The
inverted yield curves result when the short-
term rates are higher than the long-term
rates.
24
Financial Management, Ninth
The Expectation Theory
The expectation theory supports the upward
sloping yield curve since investors always
expect the short-term rates to increase in the
future.
This implies that the long-term rates will be
higher than the short-term rates.
But in the present value terms, the return
from investing in a long-term security will
equal to the return from investing in a series
of a short-term security.
25
Financial Management, Ninth
The Expectation Theory
The expectation theory assumes
capital markets are efficient
there are no transaction costs and
investors’ sole purpose is to maximize their returns
The long-term rates are geometric average of current
and expected short-term rates.
A significant implication of the expectation theory is
that given their investment horizon, investors will earn
the same average expected returns on all maturity
combinations.
Hence, a firm will not be able to lower its interest cost
in the long-run by the maturity structure of its debt.
26
Financial Management, Ninth
The Liquidity Premium Theory
Long-term bonds are more sensitive than the
prices of the short-term bonds to the changes
in the market rates of interest.
Hence, investors prefer short-term bonds to
the long-term bonds.
The investors will be compensated for this risk
by offering higher returns on long-term bonds.
This extra return, which is called liquidity
premium, gives the yield curve its upward
bias.
27
Financial Management, Ninth
The Liquidity Premium
Theory
The liquidity premium theory means that rates
on long-term bonds will be higher than on the
short-term bonds.
From a firm’s point of view, the liquidity
premium theory suggests that as the cost of
short-term debt is less, the firm could
minimize the cost of its borrowings by
continuously refinancing its short-term debt
rather taking on long-term debt.
28
Financial Management, Ninth
The Segmented Markets
Theory
The segmented markets theory assumes that
the debt market is divided into several
segments based on the maturity of debt.
In each segment, the yield of debt depends
on the demand and supply.
Investors’ preferences of each segment arise
because they want to match the maturities of
assets and liabilities to reduce the
susceptibility to interest rate changes.
29
Financial Management, Ninth
The Segmented Markets
Theory
The segmented markets theory approach
assumes investors do not shift from one
maturity to another in their borrowing—lending
activities and therefore, the shift in yields are
caused by changes in the demand and supply
for bonds of different maturities.
30
Financial Management, Ninth
Default Risk and Credit Rating
Default risk is the risk that a company will
default on its promised obligations to
bondholders.
Default premium is the spread between the
promised return on a corporate bond and the
return on a government bond with same
maturity.
31
Financial Management, Ninth
Crisil’s Debenture Ratings
H i g h I nv e s t me nt G r a d e s
A A A (Triple A ) : H i g h e s t S a fety D e b e n t u r e s rated ` A A A ' are j u d g e d t o offer h i g h e s t sa f e t y o f
timely p a y m e n t of interest a n d principal. T h o u g h t h e
circu m s t a n c e s p r o v i d i n g this d e g r e e o f safety are like ly to
c h a n g e , s u c h c h a n g e s as c a n b e e n v i s a g e d are m o s t unlik ely to
a f f e c t a d v e r s e l y t h e f u n d a m e n t a l l y s t r o n g p o s i t i o n o f s u c h iss u e s .
A A ( D o u b l e A ) : H i g h S a fety D e b e n t u r e s ra t e d ' A A ' a re j u d g e d t o offe r h i g h sa f e t y o f t i me ly
p a y m e n t o f interest a n d principal. T h e y differ in sa f e t y fro m
` A A A ' i s s u e s o n l y m a r g i n a lly.
I n ves t m e n t G r a d e s
A : A d e q u a t e S a fety D e b e n t u r e s ra t e d ` A ' a re j u d g e d t o offe r a d e q u a t e sa fe t y o f t i me ly
p a y m e n t o f interest a n d principal; h o w e v e r , c h a n g e s in
circu m s t a n c e s c a n a d v e r se l y affect s u c h i ssues m o r e t h a n t h o s e in
t h e h i g h e r rated c a t e g o r i e s .
B B B ( T rip le B ) : M o d e r a t e Safety D e b e n t u r e s ra ted ` B B B ' are j u d g e d to offer sufficient s a f et y o f
timely p a y m e n t o f interest a n d principal for t h e p r e se n t ; h o w e v e r ,
c h a n g i n g c i r c u ms t a n c e s are m o r e like ly t o lead to a w e a k e n e d
c a p a c i t y to p a y interest a n d r e p a y p rin c ipal t h a n for d e b e n t u r e s in
h i g h e r rat ed categories.
S peculat i ve G r a d e s
B B ( D o u b l e B ) : I n a d e q u a t e S a fety D e b e n t u r e s r ate d ` B B ' a re j u d g e d t o c arr y i na d e q u a t e s a fe ty o f
timely p a y m e n t o f intere st a n d pri nc ipal ; w h ile t h e y are less
su sc e p ti b le t o d e fa ult t h a n o t h e r sp e c u l a ti v e g r a d e d e b e n t u r e s in
t h e i m m e d i a t e f u t u r e , t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s t h a t t h e is s u e r f a c e s c o u l d
lead to i n a d e q u a t e c a p a c i t y to m a k e t ime l y interest a n d principal
p a y m e n t s .
B : H i g h Risk D e b e n t u r e s rated `B' are j u d g e d t o h a v e gr e a t e r susceptibility t o
d efault ; while currently interest a n d principal p a y m e n t s are met,
a d v e r s e b u si n e s s o r e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d lead t o lack o f
ability o r wi l l i n g n e s s to p a y interest o r principal.
C: S u b s t a n t i a l Risk D e b e n t u r e s rated `C' are j u d g e d to h a v e factors p r e se n t that m a k e
t h e m v u l n e r a b l e t o default ; time ly p a y m e n t o f interes t a n d
p r i n c i p a l is p o s s ible o n l y if f a v o u r a b l e c i rc u m s t a n c e s c o n t i n u e .
D : In D e f a u l t D e b e n t u r e s rated `B' are j u d g e d t o h a v e g r e a t e r susceptibility t o
d efault ; whi le c u r re ntl y intere st a n d p r incip al p a y m e n t s are met,
a d v e r s e b u si n e s s o r e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d lead t o lack o f
ability o r wi l l i n g n e s s to p a y interest o r principal.
N o t e :
1. C R I S I L m a y a p p l y " + " ( p l u s ) o r " -" ( m i n u s ) s i g n s f o r r a t i n g s f r o m A A to D to reflect c o m p a r a t i v e standing
within t h e category.
2. T h e contents within parenthesi s a r e a g u i d e to the p r o n u n c i a tion of the rating s y m bo l s .
3. Pr e f e r e n c e s h a r e rating s y m b o l s a r e identical to d e be n t u r e rating s y m b o l s except that th e letters " pf" a r e
prefixed to th e d e b e n t u r e r a t i n g s y m b o l s , e.g. p f A A A (" p f Trip le A" ) .
32
Financial Management, Ninth
Valuation of Shares
A company may issue two types of shares:
ordinary shares and
preference shares
33
Financial Management, Ninth
Valuation of Preference Shares
The value of the preference share would be
the sum of the present values of dividends
and the redemption value.
A formula similar to the valuation of bond can
be used to value preference shares with a
maturity period:
n
PDIV1 Pn
P0
t 1 (1 k p ) (1 k p )n
t
34
Financial Management, Ninth
Value of a Preference Share-Example
Suppose an investor is considering the purchase of a 12-year, 10% Rs 100 par value preference share. The
redemption value of the preference share on maturity is Rs 120. The investor’s required rate of return is
10.5 percent. What should she be willing to pay for the share now? The investor would expect to receive
Rs 10 as preference dividend each year for 12 years and Rs 110 on maturity (i.e., at the end of 12 years). We
can use the present value annuity factor to value the constant stream of preference dividends and the
present value factor to value the redemption payment.
1 1 120
P0 10
12
0.105 0.105 (1.105) (1.105)12
10 6.506 120 0.302 65.06 36.24 Rs101.30
Note that the present value of Rs 101.30 is a composite of the present value of dividends, Rs 65.06 and
the present value of the redemption value, Rs 36.24.The Rs 100 preference share is worth Rs 101.3 today
at 10.5 percent required rate of return. The investor would be better off by purchasing the share for Rs 100
today.
35
Financial Management, Ninth
Valuation of Ordinary Shares
The valuation of ordinary or equity shares s
i
relatively more difficult.
The rate of dividend on equity shares is not
known; also, the payment of equity dividend is
discretionary.
The earnings and dividends on equity shares are
generally expected to grow, unlike the interest on
bonds and preference dividend.
36
Financial Management, Ninth
Dividend Capitalisation
The value of an ordinary share is determined
by capitalising the future dividend stream at
the opportunity cost of capital
DIV1 P1
Single Period Valuation: 0 1 k
P
e
If the share price is expected to grow at g
percent, then P1 P0(1 g)
We obtain a simple formula for the share valuation
as follows:
DIV1
P0
ke g
37
Financial Management, Ninth
Multi-period Valuation
If the final period is n, we can write the
general formulan for share value as follows:
DIVt Pn
P0
t 1 (1 ke )t (1 ke )n
Growth in Dividends
Growth = Retention ratio Return on equity
g b ROE
Normal Growth
DIV1
P0
ke g
Super-normal Growth
Share value PV of dividends during finite super-normal growth period
PV of dividends during indefinite normal growth period
38
Financial Management, Ninth
Earnings Capitalisation
Under two cases, the value of the share can
be determined by capitalising the expected
earnings:
When the firm pays out 100 per cent dividends;
that is, it does not retain any earnings.
When the firm’s return on equity (ROE) is equal to
its opportunity cost of capital.
39
Financial Management, Ninth
Equity Capitalisation Rate
For firms for which dividends are expected to
grow at a constant rate indefinitely and the
current market price is given
DIV1
ke g
P0
40
Financial Management, Ninth
Caution in Using Constant-
Growth Formula
Estimation errors
Unsustainable high current growth
Errors in forecasting dividends
41
Financial Management, Ninth
Valuing Growth Opportunities
The value of a growth opportunity is given
as follows:
NPV1
Vg
ke g
b EPS1(ROE ke )
ke (ke g)
42
Financial Management, Ninth
Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How
Significant?
P/E ratio is calculated as the price of a share
divided by earning per share.
Some people use P/E multiplier to value the
shares of companies.
Alternatively, you could find the share value by
dividing EPS by E/P ratio, which is the
reciprocal of P/E ratio.
43
Financial Management, Ninth
Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How
Significant?
The share price is also given by the following
formula:
EPS1
P0 Vg
ke
The earnings price ratio can be derived as
follows:
EPS1 Vg
ke 1
Po Po
44
Financial Management, Ninth
Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How
Significant?
Cautions:
E/P ratio will be equal to the capitalisation rate
only if the value of growth opportunities is zero.
A high P/E ratio is considered good but it could
be high not because the share price is high but
because the earnings per share are quite low.
The interpretation of P/E ratio becomes
meaningless because of the measurement
problems of EPS.
45
Financial Management, Ninth
Chapter - 4
2
Financial Management, Ninth
Returnon a Single Asset
Total return Rate of return Dividend yield Capital gain yield
= Dividend
DIV1 P1 P0 DIV1 P1 P0
+ Capital R1
P0 P0 P0
gain
160.00 149.70
140.00
Year-to-
120.00
Total Retur
100.00 92.33
80.00 70.54
Returns on 0.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
3
Financial Management, Ninth
Average Rate of Return
The average rate of return is the sum of the
various one-period rates of return divided by
the number of period.
Formula for the average rate of return is as
follows:
n
1 1
R = [R1 R2 L R n ]
n n
R t
t =1
4
Financial Management, Ninth
Risk of Rates of Return:Variance
and Standard Deviation
Formulae for calculating variance and
standard deviation:
Standard deviation = Variance
n
2
1
2
Rt R
n 1 t 1
5
Financial Management, Ninth
Investment Worth of Different
Portfolios, 1969–70 to 1997–98
I n d ex
100
Stock Market Return
Call Money Market 57.16
Long-t erm Govt. Bonds
Inflation
91-day TB 13.99
10.36
10 10.20
4.41
1
Year
1982-83
1986-87
1997-98
1969-70
1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1975-76
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1983-84
1984-85
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1994-95
1995-96
1974-75
1976-77
1985-86
1987-88
1993-94
1996-97
1970-71
6
Financial Management, Ninth
Averages and Standard
Deviations, 1970–71 to 1997–98
Arithmetic Standard Risk Risk
Securities mean deviation premium * premium #
7
Financial Management, Ninth
Expected Return : Incorporating
Probabilities in Estimates
The expected rate of
return [E (R)] is the sum Economic Conditions
(1)
RETURNS UNDER VARIOUS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Share Price
(2)
Dividend
(3)
Dividend Yield
(4)
Capital Gain
(5)
Return
(6) = (4) + (5)
outcome (return) and its Decline 243.50 2.00 0.008 – 0.068 – 0.060
associated probability:
8
Financial Management, Ninth
Expected Risk and Preference
The following formula can be used to
calculate the variance of returns:
2 R1 E R 2 P1 R2 E R 2 P2 ... Rn E R 2 Pn
Ri E R 2 Pi
n
i1
9
Financial Management, Ninth
Expected Risk and Preference
A risk-averse investor will choose among
investments with the equal rates of return, the
investment with lowest standard deviation.
Similarly, if investments have equal risk
(standard deviations), the investor would prefer
the one with higher return.
A risk-neutral investor does not consider risk,
and would always prefer investments with higher
returns.
A risk-seeking investor likes investments with
higher risk irrespective of the rates of return. In
reality, most (if not all) investors are risk-averse.
10
Financial Management, Ninth
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is an important concept in
statistics and finance. In explaining the risk-
return relationship, we assume that returns
are normally distributed.
Normal distribution is a population-based,
theoretical distribution.
11
Financial Management, Ninth
RATIO ANALYSIS
Current assets
Current ratio=
Current liabilities
Quick assets
Quick ratio=
Current liabilities
Current liabilities
Current liabilities to net worth ratio=
Net worth
Ideal ratio:1:3
This ratio indicates the relative contribution of short term
creditors and owners to the capital of an enterprise. If
the ratio is high, it means it is difficult to obtain long term
funds by the business.
Capital Gearing Ratio
It expresses the relationship between equity capital and
fixed interest bearing securities and fixed dividend
bearing shares.
Fixed interest bearing securities + fixed dividend
bearing shares
CGR=
Equity shareholders funds
Components of fixed Components of equity
interest bearing securities shareholders funds
Debentures Equity share capital
Long-term loans Accumulated reserves &
Long-term fixed deposits profits
Less losses and fictitious
assets
Interpretation Of Capital Gearing
Ratio
When fixed interest bearing securities and fixed
dividend bearing shares are higher than equity
shareholders funds, the company is said to be ‘highly
geared’.
Where the fixed interest hearing securities and fixed
dividend bearing shares share equal to equity share
capital it is said to be ‘evenly geared’.
When the fixed interest bearing securities and fixed
dividend bearing shares are lower than equity share
capital it is said to be ‘low geared’.
If capital gearing is high, further raising of long term
loans may be difficult and issue of equity shares may
be attractive and vice-versa
Fixed Assets Ratio
It establishes the relationship between fixed assets and
capital employed
Fixed assets
Fixed assets ratio=
Capital employed
Net sales
Fixed assets turnover ratio=
Fixed assets
Net sales
Total assets turnover ratio=
Total assets
Net profit
Return on total recourses = X 100
Total assets
Dividend Yield Ratio
It refers to the percentage or ratio of dividend paid per
share to the market price per share. This ratio throws
light on the effective rate of return on investment, which
potential investors may hope to earn.