Term Paper

Agricultural Economy

Course: ECO 200

Course Instructor: Abdus Sattar Moin
Section: 01
Team Members:
1. Zarin Tasnim (2023-2-30-046)
2. Purabi Modak (2023-1-30-021)
3. Mukta Parvin (2023-1-30-014)
4. Jannatul Tahsin Jahan (2023-1-30-027)
5. Rajia Sultana (2021-2-30-024)
 Cabbage Estimates (2020-2023)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production

Production
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production
Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet MymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Cucumber Estimates (2020-2023)

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Production
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet MymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Lichi Estimates (2020-2023)

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Dhaka Chittagong Sylhet MymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

 Pea Estimates (2020-2023)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production
Dhaka Chittagong SylhetMymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Linseed Estimates (2020-2023)

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Dhaka Chittagong SylhetMymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Ginger Estimates (2020-2023)

50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production

Production
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Dhaka Chittagong SylhetMymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

 Fishery Production Estimates (2020 -
2023)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre

Acre
Production

Production
Production

Production

Production

Production

Production

Production
Dhaka Chittagong SylhetMymensinghKhulna Barisal Rajshahi Rangpur

2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Introduction:
Bangladesh's agriculture, vital for food security and livelihoods, requires careful
analysis of its production dynamics. This research examines production trends for
six key crops (cabbage, cucumber, litchi, pea, linseed, ginger) and fisheries across
eight divisions (Dhaka, Chittagong, Sylhet, Mymensingh, Khulna, Barisal,
Rajshahi, Rangpur) from 2020-2021 to 2022-2023. Analyzing acreage and
production data, the study identifies trends, regional variations, and potential
challenges and opportunities, contributing to the discussion on sustainable
agricultural development.

Ans: To the Ques No. 01

Historical trends for the selected crops are:

• Cabbage: Fluctuating, no clear direction overall. Some regions increased,

some decreased, some went up and down. This suggests cabbage is sensitive
 to yearly conditions (weather, prices, etc.), but without more years of data,
it's hard to say if it's generally growing, shrinking, or just bouncing around.

• Cucumber: Similar to cabbage, lots of ups and downs. Maybe a slight

tendency towards lower acreage and production in some areas by 2022-
2023, but not a dramatic drop. Again, more years needed to confirm a real
trend.

• Litchi: The standout here is Sylhet's HUGE spike in 2020-2021, then back to
normal. Was this a one-off bumper crop, or some change that didn't last?
Other regions were less dramatic, so it's likely a Sylhet-specific event, not a
litchi trend overall.

• Pea: Rajshahi's 2022-2023 peak is the big story. Like litchi, is this a lasting
change in Rajshahi, or a blip? Elsewhere, pea production seems low and
steady, so no major trend except that Rajshahi anomaly.

• Linseed: Low overall, with Dhaka fluctuating the most. No clear upward or
downward trend, more like jitters. Perhaps linseed is a niche crop with less
change year-to-year, but again, three years is too short to be sure.

• Ginger: Sylhet's another peak in 2022-2023, but Rangpur also shows a

gradual increase. So, unlike litchi (one-off?), ginger may be on the rise in
those areas. Needs more years to confirm, but there's a possible trend
starting.

• Fisheries: Shows year-to-year fluctuations, similar to many of the crops.

However, unlike some crops with dramatic spikes, fisheries production
varies more moderately. No strong upward or downward trend is
immediately apparent. More data is needed to determine if these are just
annual variations or indicative of a longer-term pattern. Also, "Acre" in this
context refers to water area (ponds, etc.) and needs to be interpreted
differently than land acreage for crops.
 Ans: To the Ques No. 02

The graphs show some BIG differences in how these crops are grown across
Bangladesh's divisions. Here's the breakdown:

• Sylhet: This division is the "litchi and ginger king" for the years shown. It
had HUGE spikes for both, suggesting the climate or soil there is really good
for those crops. However, it was less impressive for the others, so maybe
they've specialized.

• Rajshahi: Pea powerhouse, at least in 2022-2023. That massive peak makes

one wonder if there was some new pea variety or technique adopted there.
For other crops, it's middling, not the lowest, but not a star performer either.

• Dhaka: Seems to be the "linseed capital", having the highest production

consistently. Also, it's not bad at the other crops, kind of an all-rounder, but
nothing spectacular except for that linseed dominance.

• Chittagong: A bit of an underperformer in this dataset. Consistently low for

most crops, no standout peaks. Maybe they focus on crops not shown here,
or have limitations we don't see in the graphs.

• Mymensingh, Khulna, Barisal, Rangpur: These are harder to pin down.

They have moments (like Rangpur's gradual ginger rise), but no clear "this is
what they're best at" situation. More data over time would show if they have
hidden strengths.
Overall, it's clear that "one size fits all" doesn't work for Bangladeshi agriculture.
Each division has its own strengths and weaknesses, likely due to a mix of:

• Natural conditions: Soil, climate, water availability obviously vary, making

some places better for certain crops.
• Economic factors: Access to markets, labor costs, etc., can make a crop
profitable in one area, but not another.
• Social factors: Traditional crops, farmer knowledge, even cultural
preferences all play a role in what's grown where.
This variation is both a challenge (some areas may be left behind) and an
opportunity (specialization can boost efficiency). Policies that take these regional
differences into account are key for a thriving agricultural sector.

Ans: To the Ques No. 03

Regional Crop Patterns:

• Sylhet: Clearly emerges as a major producer of litchi and ginger. The
dramatic spikes in production for these crops suggest that Sylhet's agro-
climatic conditions are particularly favorable for their cultivation. This
specialization could be further reinforced by existing market linkages and
farmer expertise in these crops.
• Rajshahi: Shows a strong peak in pea production in 2022-2023, indicating a
potential regional strength in this crop. Whether this is a one-off event or a
sign of a longer-term trend remains to be seen.
• Dhaka: Appears to be the leading producer of linseed, consistently showing
the highest production among the regions. This suggests a degree of
specialization in linseed cultivation in Dhaka.
• Other Regions: While not as pronounced as the cases mentioned above,
other regions may also have specific crop patterns that are not fully captured
in the limited data. For example, Rangpur shows a gradual increase in ginger
production, which could indicate a growing focus on this crop.
Productivity Differences:
• Visual Estimation: By comparing the "Acre" and "Production" values for
each region and year, we can get a rough sense of productivity (production
per unit of land). However, without specific units for these metrics, precise
comparisons are not possible.
• Regional Variations: Even with the limited data, it's evident that productivity
varies across regions. Some regions appear to be more efficient in producing
certain crops than others. This could be due to differences in soil fertility,
water availability, agricultural practices, and access to technology.
• Importance of Analysis: A more detailed analysis of productivity differences
would require calculating specific yield metrics (e.g., tons per hectare) and
investigating the factors that contribute to these variations. This could help
identify areas where interventions are needed to improve productivity

Ans: To the Ques No. 04

Impact of climate on agricultural production trends:

• Year-to-year Variability: The graphs show a lot of ups and downs in both
acreage and production. While this could be due to many things (prices,
farming practices, etc.), it's also consistent with what we expect from a
changing climate: more extreme weather, unpredictable rainfall, and shifting
seasons.

• Regional Differences: Some areas are clearly more vulnerable to these

fluctuations. Sylhet's litchi and ginger spikes, for example, could be linked
to specific weather events in those years. If those events become more
common with climate change, it will make those crops unreliable.
• Lack of Clear Trends: If climate change was already having a major impact,
we'd expect to see more consistent declines or shifts in what crops are
viable. The fact that it's mostly "up and down" suggests we're seeing short-
term effects, not necessarily long-term changes...yet.

Ans: To the Ques No. 05

• Regional Differences (Again): The fact that the lines jump around so much
between Dhaka, Chittagong, etc., strongly suggests that something about
those locations matters. It could be:

a. Soil: Some areas are just naturally better for certain crops.
b. Water: Rainfall, irrigation access, etc., can make or break a harvest.
c. Local knowledge: Farmers in one region may have generations of
experience with a specific crop.

• Year-to-Year Variation: The lines also change a lot within each location
across the three years. This points to things that change annually:

a. Weather: A drought one year, a flood the next, obviously impacts

things.
b. Pests/Diseases: Outbreaks can devastate crops in a specific year.
c. Prices: If the price of cabbage is high one year, farmers might plant
more, then less the next if it drops.

• Acre vs. Production Mismatch: Sometimes, the "Acre" line goes up, but
"Production" doesn't follow. This suggests:

a. Yield changes: Maybe the same amount of land produced less due to
poor conditions.
b. Data errors: It's possible one of the numbers is wrong, though we have
no way to know from just the graph.
 Ans: To the Ques No. 06

Land Use Patterns:

• Acreage Variability: The amount of land dedicated to each of the six crops
varies considerably. This variation occurs both between different divisions
and within the same division across the three years. This indicates that land
allocation decisions are influenced by several factors.

• Regional Specialization: There are indications of regional specialization.

Sylhet, for example, appears to focus more on litchi and ginger, while Dhaka
seems to prioritize linseed. These specializations likely reflect a
combination of:

a. Environmental Factors: Soil type, climate, and water availability play

a crucial role in determining which crops are suitable for a particular
region. Sylhet's conditions may be especially favorable for litchi and
ginger.

b. Economic Drivers: Market access, transportation, and the profitability

of different crops influence farmers' decisions about land use. A strong
market for litchi in Sylhet could incentivize farmers to allocate more
land to its cultivation.

c. Cultural and Traditional Practices: Established farming practices, local

knowledge, and even cultural preferences can contribute to regional
specializations in crop production.
 • Year-to-Year Changes: The acreage dedicated to each crop also changes
from year to year within a division. This suggests that farmers adapt their
land use practices in response to:

a. Weather Conditions: Variations in rainfall, temperature, and the

occurrence of extreme weather events can affect crop yields and
influence planting decisions.
b. Pest and Disease Outbreaks: Outbreaks can significantly impact crop
production and may lead farmers to switch to different crops in
subsequent years.
c. Market Fluctuations: Changes in market prices for various crops can
influence farmers' planting choices. High prices for a particular crop
in one year may encourage increased planting the following year.

Limitations Regarding Cropping Intensity:

• No Information on Multiple Cropping: The data is limited to the land used
for individual crops. It provides no direct information about cropping
intensity, which is the number of crops grown on the same land within a
year. We can't tell if the land dedicated to one of these six crops is also used
for other crops at different times of the year.
• Crop-Specific Data: The data is categorized by crop and region, not by
specific land parcels. This means we cannot track the complete cropping
history of any given piece of land.
 Ans: To the Ques No. 07

Our research, while focused on crop production trends, revealed a significant data
gap regarding the use of agricultural inputs. While we collected data on land area
("Acres") dedicated to the six selected crops (cabbage, cucumber, litchi, pea,
linseed, and ginger), information on other crucial inputs was not available within
the scope of our study. This limitation is a key finding in itself, highlighting the
need for more comprehensive data collection in this area.

Specifically, the following information regarding agricultural inputs was not

collected and is therefore missing from our analysis:

• Seeds: Data on seed types (local varieties, improved varieties, hybrids), seed
quality, and seeding rates was not gathered. This information is crucial for
understanding yield potential and seed system dynamics.

• Fertilizers: Information on fertilizer types (chemical or organic), application

rates, and methods was not collected. This data is essential for assessing
nutrient management practices and their potential environmental impacts.

• Chemicals (Pesticides, Herbicides): Data on the use of pesticides

(insecticides, fungicides), herbicides, and other agrochemicals was not
available. Understanding the types and quantities of chemicals used is vital
for evaluating pest management strategies and potential risks to human
health and the environment.

• Water: Information on irrigation practices, water sources, and water usage

was not collected. This is a significant gap, as water availability is a critical
factor in agricultural production, especially in a region like Bangladesh that
is vulnerable to both floods and droughts.
 • Labor: Data on labor inputs, including the number of workers involved,
types of tasks performed, and wage rates, was not gathered. This information
is essential for understanding the socio-economic dimensions of agricultural
production.

• Machinery: Data on the use of agricultural machinery (tractors, harvesters,

etc.) was not collected. This information is relevant for assessing the level of
mechanization in agriculture and its impact on productivity and labor
demand.

• Capital: Data on the financial aspects of agricultural production, such as

input costs, access to credit, and investment in agricultural technologies, was
not collected. This information is crucial for understanding the economic
viability of different farming systems.

Ans: To the Ques No. 08

Our research focused on six key crops – cabbage, cucumber, litchi, pea, linseed,
and ginger – to understand agricultural production dynamics across Bangladesh.
These crops were selected due to their varying importance in the national diet and
economy, as well as their diverse cultivation requirements. However, it's crucial to
acknowledge that this selection, while providing valuable insights, does not
represent the entirety of agricultural production in the country. Our analysis is
further constrained by the limited three-year timeframe of the data (2020-2021 to
2022-2023) and the absence of data on crucial agricultural inputs.

• Scale of Production: Cabbage and cucumber generally exhibited larger

acreage and production volumes compared to the other selected crops,
suggesting their significant contribution to the vegetable supply. Linseed
consistently showed the lowest acreage and production, indicating a smaller
market presence. Litchi, pea, and ginger occupied an intermediate position in
 terms of scale. However, it is important to note that the scale of production
can fluctuate significantly from year to year.

• Production Volatility: Litchi and ginger production demonstrated the most

dramatic fluctuations across the three years, particularly in specific regions
like Sylhet. This volatility raises concerns about the stability of yields and
potential income risks faced by farmers cultivating these crops. Cabbage,
cucumber, and linseed showed more moderate variations in production. Pea
production was marked by a remarkable spike in Rajshahi in one year,
contrasting with relatively stable levels in other regions.

• Regional Concentration: A striking pattern of regional concentration

emerged from our analysis. Sylhet appeared to specialize in litchi and ginger
production, consistently showing high acreage and, in some years,
exceptionally high yields. Rajshahi demonstrated a capacity for high pea
production, particularly in the 2022-2023 period. Dhaka consistently led in
linseed production. These regional specializations likely reflect the influence
of a combination of factors, including agro-climatic conditions, market
access, and established farming practices.

• Correlation Between Acreage and Production: Generally, we observed a

positive correlation between acreage and production. However, there were
instances where production did not proportionally increase with acreage,
suggesting the influence of other factors such as weather conditions, pest
pressure, or management practices on yields.

• Overall: The six crops demonstrate a wide range of production scales,

volatility, and regional concentration. This diversity underscores the
complexity of agricultural production in Bangladesh and the need for
nuanced approaches to agricultural development. However, it is vital to re-
emphasize that this analysis is limited to these six crops and does not reflect
the complete picture of agricultural production in the country. Furthermore,
 the absence of input data limits our ability to fully understand the drivers of
these observed patterns.

Ans: To the Ques No. 09

While illuminating production trends for six key crops in Bangladesh, also
revealed several challenges and opportunities within the agricultural sector. It's
important to remember that these observations stem solely from the limited scope
of our chosen crops (cabbage, cucumber, litchi, pea, linseed, and ginger) and the
three-year data window (2020-2021 to 2022-2023). Therefore, these findings
should be seen as preliminary and not necessarily representative of the entire
agricultural landscape.

Challenges:
• Production Instability: The year-to-year fluctuations, particularly for litchi
and ginger, present a significant challenge. This volatility makes income
unpredictable for farmers and complicates consistent supply for consumers.
Unraveling the causes of this instability, whether due to weather, pests, or
market shifts, is crucial.

• Regional Disparities: The concentration of certain crops in specific regions

(e.g., Sylhet for litchi/ginger, Rajshahi for peas) raises concerns. While
specialization can be efficient, it also can lead to uneven development and
unequal access to resources. Ensuring balanced growth across all regions is
a key concern.

• Data Scarcity: Our research highlighted a significant lack of comprehensive

data on essential agricultural inputs. Without information on seeds,
fertilizers, chemicals, water use, labor, and machinery, it's difficult to fully
 understand production drivers and develop effective policies. This data gap
is a major obstacle to informed decision-making.

• Potential for Post-Harvest Losses: While our study focused on production,

it's vital to acknowledge the risk of substantial post-harvest losses. Without
adequate storage, transportation, and processing, a portion of the harvest
may be wasted. Reducing these losses is crucial for food security and
farmer profitability.

Opportunities:
• Capitalizing on Regional Strengths: The observed regional specializations
offer potential for targeted interventions and value chain development.
Tailoring support to the specific needs of farmers in regions suited for
particular crops could boost productivity and market competitiveness.

• Scope for Diversification: While our research covered six crops, there's
likely room for exploring diversification. Introducing alternative crops
suited to local conditions and market demand could enhance resilience and
create new income streams.

• Technological Potential: Investing in agricultural research and development,

encompassing improved seeds, efficient irrigation, and integrated pest
management, holds considerable promise for increasing yields and
minimizing environmental impact.

• Enhancing Market Access: Improving market access for farmers through

better infrastructure, storage, and buyer connections is crucial. Facilitating
value addition through processing and packaging can also enhance
profitability.
 Ans: To the Ques No. 10

Our investigation into production trends revealed the probable impact of several
factors beyond the immediate scope of our collected data. While limited to six
crops and a three-year period, the available information suggests the potential
importance of these additional elements:

• Policy Landscape: Government policies, including subsidies, price controls,

trade agreements, and access to credit, likely play a significant role in
shaping agricultural practices. Future studies should explore how these
policies affect the cultivation of our selected crops and the broader
agricultural sector.

• Market Dynamics: Market forces, such as consumer demand, price

fluctuations, and the efficiency of supply chains, are critical. Analyzing how
these dynamics influence farmers' decisions regarding crop choices, planting
schedules, and marketing strategies would provide valuable insights.

• Technological Integration: The adoption of improved seed varieties, modern

farming equipment, efficient irrigation methods, and integrated pest
management strategies likely impacts productivity. Further research should
examine the role of technology in agricultural development.

• Environmental Context: Factors like soil health, water availability, climate

variability, and the impact of extreme weather events are likely important.
Investigating these environmental influences is crucial for understanding
long-term agricultural sustainability.
 • Socioeconomic Factors: Land ownership structures, access to education and
healthcare, labor availability, and other socioeconomic conditions can
influence agricultural practices and outcomes. Exploring these connections
would offer a more comprehensive understanding of the sector.

Ans: To the Ques No. 011

Our production trend analysis suggests several policy directions, though our
limited dataset (six crops, three years, missing input data) necessitates caution.
These recommendations serve as starting points, not definitive solutions.
• Regionally Targeted Support: Observed disparities suggest tailoring support
to specific regional strengths and needs.

• Research and Extension Investment: Further research and stronger

extension services are needed to address production challenges and
disseminate best practices.

• Enhanced Data Collection: Improved data on inputs, water use, and post-
harvest losses is crucial for informed policymaking.

• Sustainable Practices Promotion: Policies should incentivize sustainable

agriculture, including integrated pest management and efficient water use.

• Market Access Improvement: Strengthening market linkages and

infrastructure is vital for fair prices and reduced post-harvest losses.

• Climate Change Adaptation: Given Bangladesh's vulnerability, climate

resilience must be integrated into agricultural planning.

• Smallholder Support: Policies should prioritize the needs of smallholder

farmers, including access to credit and technology.
Conclusion:
Our analysis of agricultural production trends in Bangladesh, focusing on six key
crops and fisheries over three years, reveals a dynamic sector characterized by
regional specialization, year-to-year variability, and data limitations. While
specific crop trends vary, a common theme is the influence of regional factors and
annual fluctuations, likely reflecting weather, market, and management practices.
The fisheries sector exhibits similar variability but without the dramatic spikes
seen in some crops. Our research underscores the need for more comprehensive
data collection, particularly regarding agricultural inputs, to fully understand
production drivers and develop effective policies. These findings highlight both
the challenges and opportunities within Bangladesh's agriculture, suggesting the
potential for targeted interventions and sustainable practices to enhance
productivity and resilience. However, the limited scope of our data necessitates
caution in generalizing these conclusions to the entire agricultural landscape.