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Math Assignment Unit 2

The document outlines a math assignment focused on hypothesis testing and inference for categorical data, including tests for single and two proportions. It presents statistical analyses regarding affordability issues for college attendance and sleep deprivation rates in Texas and Dallas, concluding that less than 50% of adults cite affordability as a reason for not attending college, while there is insufficient evidence to claim a difference in sleep deprivation rates between the two locations. The assignment includes calculations for test statistics, p-values, confidence intervals, and recommended sample sizes for further studies.

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4 views5 pages

Math Assignment Unit 2

The document outlines a math assignment focused on hypothesis testing and inference for categorical data, including tests for single and two proportions. It presents statistical analyses regarding affordability issues for college attendance and sleep deprivation rates in Texas and Dallas, concluding that less than 50% of adults cite affordability as a reason for not attending college, while there is insufficient evidence to claim a difference in sleep deprivation rates between the two locations. The assignment includes calculations for test statistics, p-values, confidence intervals, and recommended sample sizes for further studies.

Uploaded by

guysonnangayi
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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University of the People

Math 1281-01 Statistical Inference - Ay2025-T3

Math Assignment Unit 2 - Hypothesis Testing and Inference for Categorical Data

Mihir Panchal (Instructor)

13/02/2025
PART 1

1a. Hypothesis Testing for Single Proportion


The problem states that 38% of 441 adults who did not have a college degree and were not
currently enrolled in school said they did not attend college because they could not afford it. We
want to determine if there is strong evidence supporting the statement that less than 50% of
adults who decide not to attend college are because they cannot afford it.
Hypotheses:
H0: p ≥ 0.5 (The proportion of adults who do not attend college due to affordability issues is
greater than or equal to 50%)
H1: p < 0.5 (The proportion of adults who do not attend college due to affordability issues is less
than 50%)

Validation of Independence and Success-Failure Condition:


The sample of 441 adults is a random sample, which satisfies the independence condition. The
success-failure condition is also met since the sample size is sufficiently large (n > 30), and the
proportion of successes (38%) is not extremely close to 0 or 1.

Test Statistic and p-value:


Let x be the number of adults who did not attend college due to affordability issues. We have x =
0.38 \* 441 = 167.58 ≈ 168. The sample proportion is p̂ = x / n = 168 / 441 ≈ 0.381.
Using a z-test for a single proportion, we have:
z = (p̂ - p) / √(p \* (1 - p) / n) = (0.381 - 0.5) / √(0.5 \* 0.5 / 441) ≈ -4.51
The p-value is P(Z < -4.51) ≈ 0.000003, which is extremely low.

Interpretation and Conclusion:

The p-value is less than the typical significance level of 0.05, which indicates strong evidence
against the null hypothesis. We conclude that there is sufficient evidence to support the statement
that less than 50% of adults who decide not to attend college are because they cannot afford it.
Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis.

1b. Margin of Error for a 90% Confidence Level


To achieve a margin of error of 1.5% at a 90% confidence level, we need to determine the
required sample size. Using the formula for the margin of error:
ME = Z \* √(p \* (1 - p) / n)
where Z is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level (1.645 for 90% confidence
level), p is the population proportion, and n is the sample size.
Rearranging the formula to solve for n, we get:
n = (Z^2 \* p \* (1 - p)) / ME^2
Using the estimated proportion of 0.38 and the desired margin of error of 1.5%, we have:
n = (1.645^2 \* 0.38 \* 0.62) / 0.015^2 ≈ 2431.25
Therefore, we recommend a survey of at least 2432 individuals to achieve a margin of error of
1.5% at a 90% confidence level.

Part 2

2a. Confidence Interval for the Difference between Two Proportions


The problem states that the proportion of residents who reported insufficient rest or sleep during
each of the preceding 31 days is 7.0% in Texas (n1 = 13,270) and 6.8% in Dallas (n2 = 4,681).

Validation of Independence and Success-Failure Condition:


The samples are random and independent, satisfying the independence condition. The success-
failure condition is also met since the sample sizes are sufficiently large (n1 > 30 and n2 > 30),
and the proportions are not extremely close to 0 or 1.

Confidence Interval:

The pooled proportion is p̂ = (x1 + x2) / (n1 + n2) = (932 + 316) / (13,270 + 4,681) ≈ 0.0694.
The standard error is:
SE = √(p̂ \* (1 - p̂ ) \* (1 / n1 + 1 / n2)) ≈ 0.00434
The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions is:
(p̂ 1 - p̂ 2) ± 1.96 \* SE = (0.070 - 0.068) ± 1.96 \* 0.00434 ≈ (-0.011, 0.021)

Interpretation:
The 95% confidence interval suggests that the true difference between the proportions of sleep-
deprived individuals in Texas and Dallas is likely between -1.1% and 2.1%. This interval
includes 0, indicating that the difference may not be statistically significant.

2b. Hypothesis Testing for the Difference between Two Proportions


We want to determine if the provided data is strong evidence for the rate of sleep deprivation
being different for the two states.

Hypotheses:
H0: p1 - p2 = 0 (The proportions of sleep-deprived individuals in Texas and Dallas are equal)
H1: p1 - p2 ≠ 0 (The proportions of sleep-deprived individuals in Texas and Dallas are not equal)

Test Statistic and p-value:


Using a z-test for the difference between two proportions, we have:
z = (p̂ 1 - p̂ 2) / SE ≈ (0.070 - 0.068) / 0.00434 ≈ 0.463
The p-value is P(|Z| > 0.463) ≈ 0.643, which is greater than the significance level of 0.05.
Conclusion:

The p-value is greater than 0.05, indicating that there is not sufficient evidence to support the
statement that the rate of sleep deprivation is different for the two states. Therefore, we fail to
reject the null hypothesis.

REFERENCES

The Organic Chemistry Tutor. (2019a, October 28). Hypothesis testing - solving problems
with proportions. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76VruarGn2Q

The Organic Chemistry Tutor. (2019b, November 15). Hypothesis testing with two
proportions. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCbNUnZ98oE

Introduction to Statistics at SLCC. (2021, June 18). Chapter 3.5 - lesson 1/3 - inference for a
single proportion. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB8kttv9hoY

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