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MATH 1281-01 Statistical Inference - AY2025-T4

Math Assignment Unit 2

Instructor: Ankita Devdhara

April 23, 2025

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Part 1

A group of 441 adults who did not have a college degree and were not currently enrolled in
school were randomly selected. 38% of them said they did not attend college because they could
not afford it.

a. Conduct a hypothesis test to determine if there is strong evidence supporting the statement
that less than 50% of adults who decide not to attend college are because they cannot afford it.
State the hypotheses and validate the independence and success-failure condition. Compute test
statistic, and p-value, interpret the data, and conclude if the null hypothesis needs to be rejected
or not.

Given Data:
 Sample size (n) = 441
 Proportion of adults who did not attend college due to affordability (p̂ ) = 0.38
 Hypothesized proportion (p₀) = 0.50

Hypotheses

 Null Hypothesis (H₀): p ≥ 0.50 (50% or more of adults do not attend college because
they cannot afford it)
 Alternative Hypothesis (Hₐ): p < 0.50 (Less than 50% of adults do not attend college
because they cannot afford it)

Independence and Success-Failure Condition

Independence: The sample of 441 adults is assumed to be randomly selected, satisfying the

independence condition.

Success-Failure Condition: A minimum of ten anticipated successes and failures are required.
For the null hypothesis, p_0 = 0.50:
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np_0 = 441 x 0.50 = 220.5

n(1 - p_0) = 441 x 0.50 = 220.5

Both are greater than 10, so the condition is satisfied

Test Statistic

 Sample proportion (p̂ ) = 0.38

 Population proportion under null hypothesis (p_0) = 0.50
 Sample size (n) = 441

The test statistic (z) is calculated as:

z = (p̂ - p₀) / √(p₀(1 - p₀) / n)

z = (0.38 - 0.50) / √(0.50 × 0.50 / 441)

√(0.50 × 0.50 / 441) ≈ 0.0238

z = -0.12 / 0.0238 ≈ -5.04

p-value

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, find the p-value corresponding to z = -
5.04.

The p-value is extremely small (close to 0).

Interpret the Data and Conclusion

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Given that the p-value is smaller than the significance level of 0.05, we reject the null
hypothesis. There is strong evidence that less than 50% of adults choose not to attend college due
to financial constraints (Goss-Sampson, 2022).

b. Suppose we wanted the margin of error for the 90% confidence level to be about 1.5%. How
large of a survey would you recommend?

Given:

 Desired margin of error (E) = 1.5% = 0.015

 Confidence level = 90%, so Z_0.05 ≈ 1.645

The formula for margin of error in a proportion is:

E = Z × √ (p̂ (1 - p̂ ) / n)

Solving for n:

n = (Z × √ (p̂ (1 - p̂ )) / E)²

Using p̂ = 0.38:

n = (1.645 × √ (0.38 × 0.62) / 0.015)²

≈ (1.645 × 0.4857 / 0.015)²

≈ (0.7989 / 0.015)²

≈ 2837

Therefore, to obtain a 1.5% margin of error at a 90% confidence level, a sample size of roughly
2837 is suggested

Part 2
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A random sample study was conducted on 13,270 Texas and 4,681 Dallas residents. It was found
that the proportion of residents who reported insufficient rest or sleep during each of the
preceding 31 days is 7.0% in Texas and 6.8% in Dallas.

a. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of sleep-
deprived individuals among Texas residents and Dallas residents. Explain the validation of
independence and success-failure condition. Construct the interval and interpret it in the context
of this study.

Calculate Proportions

 Proportion in Texas (p̂ _T) = 0.070

 Proportion in Dallas (p̂ _D) = 0.068

Check Conditions

Independence: Both samples are random and independent.

Success-Failure Condition:

p̂ ₜ × nₜ = 13270 × 0.07 = 929.9

p̂ ₜ × (1 - pₜ) = 13270 × 0.93 = 12340.1

p̂ _d × n_d = 4681 × 0.068 = 318.3

p̂ _d × (1 - p_d) = 4681 × 0.932 = 4362.7

All values are greater than 10, so the condition is satisfied.

Calculate Standard Error and Confidence Interval

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Standard Error (SE):

SE = √(p̂ ₜ(1 - pₜ) / nₜ + p̂ _d(1 - p_d) / n_d)

SE = √(0.07 × 0.93 / 13270 + 0.068 × 0.932 / 4681)

SE ≈ √(0.00000492 + 0.00001354)

SE ≈ 0.00435

95% Confidence Interval:

Difference ± Z × SE

Using Z = 1.96:

(0.07 - 0.068) ± 1.96 × 0.00435

0.002 ± 0.00853

CI: [-0.00653, 0.01053]

Interpretation: The 95% confidence interval for the difference in sleep deprivation rates
between Texas and Dallas residents is [-0.00653, 0.01053]. This interval includes zero,
suggesting no significant difference in the proportions (Goss-Sampson, 2022).

b. Conduct a hypothesis test to determine if the provided data is strong evidence for the rate of
sleep deprivation is different for the two states given α = 0.05. Calculate the test statistics, and p-
value and provide a conclusion to support your observation.

State the Hypotheses

 Null Hypothesis (H₀): pₜ = p_d (No difference in sleep deprivation rates)

 Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): pₜ ≠ p_d (There is a difference in sleep deprivation rates)

Calculate Pooled Proportion and Test Statistic

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Pooled Proportion (p̂ ):

p̂ = (nₜ × pₜ + n_d × p_d) / (nₜ + n_d)

p̂ = (13270 × 0.07 + 4681 × 0.068) / 17951

p̂ = (929.9 + 318.3) / 17951

p̂ ≈ 0.0696

Standard Error for the Pooled Proportion:

SE = √(p̂ × (1 - p̂ ) × (1/nₜ + 1/n_d))

SE = √(0.0696 × 0.9304 × (1/13270 + 1/4681))

SE ≈ 0.00434

Test Statistic (z):

z = (pₜ - p_d) / SE

z = (0.07 - 0.068) / 0.00434

z ≈ 0.46

Find p-value

Using the z-table, the p-value for z = 0.46 in a two-tailed test is about 0.645.

The null hypothesis cannot be rejected because the p-value (0.645) is significantly higher than
the significance level (α = 0.05). According to Diez et al. (2019), there is no convincing evidence
that the rates of sleep deprivation among residents of Texas and Dallas differ.

References
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Diez, D., Cetinkaya-Rundel, M., Barr, C. D., & Barr, C. D. (2019). OpenIntro Statistics - Fourth

Edition. Open Textbook Library. Retrieved from

https://www.biostat.jhsph.edu/~iruczins/teaching/books/2019.openintro.statistics.pdf

Goss-Sampson, M. A. (2022). Statistical Analysis in JASP: A Guide for Students (5th ed., JASP

v0.16.1 2022). Retrieved from

https://jasp-stats.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Statistical-Analysis-in-JASP-A-

Students-Guide-v16.pdf