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GTA US Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book

The US Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book outlines the changes in market access resulting from President Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order issued on April 2, 2025. It includes analyses of tariff rate changes by country, sector, and product, as well as hypothetical revenue projections from new tariffs, while noting necessary adjustments for exceptions. The document is a work in progress, with updates available online, and provides a detailed methodological approach to calculating effective tariff rates.

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25 views8 pages

GTA US Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book

The US Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book outlines the changes in market access resulting from President Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order issued on April 2, 2025. It includes analyses of tariff rate changes by country, sector, and product, as well as hypothetical revenue projections from new tariffs, while noting necessary adjustments for exceptions. The document is a work in progress, with updates available online, and provides a detailed methodological approach to calculating effective tariff rates.

Uploaded by

pbavila
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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US Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book

Johannes Fritz1, 3 April 2025

This Chart Book illustrates the market access changes implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff
Executive Order of 2 April 2025. We begin by country-level tariff changes. Further charts on sector- and product-
level implications will be added continuously.

Work in Progress, find the latest version at


https://globaltradealert.org/reports/US-Reciprocal-Tariff-Chart-Book
All data files are also available for download on that page.
Note that several adjustments are needed to account for exceptions made in the Executive Order. We explain
our approach in detail on the final page of this document.

Contents
Announced vs. Effective Tariff Rates: Top 30 US Import Sources............................................................................ 2
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Total ................................................................................................................ 3
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Largest Sectoral Contributions .................................................................. 4
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Largest Product Contributions ................................................................... 5
How Have Market Access Conditions Changed Relative to My Competitor? ......................................................... 6
How Have Competitiveness Hurdles Changed for Your Top US Exports? .............................................................. 7
Methodological Note.......................................................................................................................................................... 8

1
CEO of the St.Gallen Endowment, johannes.fritz@sgept.org.

Find further timely analyses on


globaltradealert.org/analysis
1 of 8
Announced vs. Effective Tariff Rates: Top 30 US Import Sources
This chart displays average tariff rate increases after applying the Executive Order's exceptions. For statistics
on additional U.S. import sources, refer to the website's data file. See methodology section at the end of the
document for calculation details.

2
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Total
This graph shows hypothetical additional tariff revenue for the US government from imposing reciprocal
tariffs, with all exemptions applied. The calculations warrant caution for two important reasons:

1. The calculation assumes 2024 import levels remain unchanged despite new tariffs
2. The calculation makes no determination about who bears the tariff costs (importers, consumers, or
exporters)

For complete data across all jurisdictions, see the website.

3
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Largest Sectoral Contributions
This graph shows projected additional US tariff revenues by import sector under reciprocal rates. The
limitations stated in the above section remain, namely:

1. Calculations assume 2024 import volumes remain constant


2. No implications for who ultimately bears tariff costs (importers, consumers, or exporters)

For complete sectoral tariff data, refer to the website's data file.

4
Hypothetical New US Tariff Revenues: Largest Product Contributions

Top Products Generating Additional Tariff Revenue


This graph displays projected tariff revenue increases for highest-revenue product categories under
reciprocal rates. The limitations stated in the above section remain, namely::

1. Calculations assume 2024 import volumes remain constant


2. No implications for who ultimately bears tariff costs (importers, consumers, or exporters)

For comprehensive product-level data, see the website.

5
How Have Market Access Conditions Changed Relative to My Competitor?
This graph analyses how the US administration's departure from Most Favoured Nation (MFN) provisions
has shifted relative market access conditions between different exporters. It compares changes in tariff rates
for specific product categories across countries exporting to the US. Values above zero indicate, worsened
competitive position (higher relative tariffs), while values below zero show improved market access
compared to competitors.

6
How Have Competitiveness Hurdles Changed for Your Top US Exports?
This graph shows how countries' export competitiveness has changed in the US market on a sector-by-sector
basis. It compares each country's new tariff rates against a trade-weighted average of all competing
exporters in the same sector.
Examples for Switzerland and Vietnam illustrate these competitive shifts. Complete data for 200+ economies
available in the data file.

7
Methodological Note
We took a series of steps to derive the additional rates implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff
Executive Order of 2 April 2025. By following these steps—weighting each product according to its import
volume and adjusting for the four key exceptions—we derive a final effective tariff rate that more accurately
reflects the tariffs imposed on imports. This methodological approach is designed to be transparent and
robust, ensuring clarity for both experts in the field and journalists covering the policy changes.

Starting with the Headline Rate and Adjusting for Exceptions


Although the US administration’s headline tariff rates provide a general overview, the actual rate applied to
all imports from a given jurisdiction is lower due to several exceptions. Our approach adjusts for these
exceptions to derive the final effective rate.

Weighting Based on Trade Volume


Due to exceptions, we have to choose how to aggregate product-level tariff rates to a single number per
jurisdiction. Our approach is to weigh each product’s tariff rate by the product’s share in United States 2024
imports. We use the USITC’s DataWeb import tariff data on the HS 8-digit level for this exercise. In our view,
this trade-weighted average tariff rate offers a more accurate representation of what importers will actually
face. The alternative would be a simple average across all products.

Accounting for the Four Exceptions


• Country-Level Exceptions:
Certain countries receive special treatment. Specifically, imports from Canada and Mexico under
USMCA. Furthermore, the 2 April EO excludes so-called Column 2 jurisdictions, namely Russia,
Belarus, Cuba, and North Korea. We zero-rate these countries for the IEEPA rate (10%). Neither of
these jurisdictions is listed in Annex I. Hence no exclusion is necessary.
• Product-Level Exceptions (Annex II & IEEPA Exclusions):
Some products are either exempted or treated differently, as detailed in Annex II of the Executive
Order and the IEEPA exclusions. Products meeting these criteria are zero-rated for all import
origins.
• Aluminium, Steel, and Derivative Products:
These products are generally excluded from the IEEPA and Reciprocal Tariff EO. However, the
original Executive Order for Aluminium and Steel and their derivative products remains in force. We
add the specified rates of 200% (for Russia) and 25% (everywhere outside USMCA) for the
products contained in the Aluminium and Steel EO.
• Automobiles and Parts:
Similarly, automobiles and parts are excepted from the IEEPA and Reciprocal Tariff EO. We
proceed as with aluminium and steel, adding the product and rates as described in the relevant EO.

Utilizing the Annex I Reciprocal Rates


For products not falling under the above exceptions, we apply the reciprocal tariff rates for jurisdictions
specified in Annex I of the Executive Order and the 10% IEEPA rate for all other jurisdictions. Note that the
rates in Annex I differ slightly from those announced in the press briefing on 2 April 2025 in the Rose Garden,
underscoring the importance of using the official figures provided in Annex I.

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