Practical Skills Module: Financial Modeling

Blu Containers Company

May 14, 2025

Financial Model Solution - Vertical Orientation Powered by:

 Blu Containers Company
Summary Outputs

SUMMARY VALUES - BASE CASE

Projected
($ Millions) Trend 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue $213 $237 $205 $252 $234 $281 $281 $268
Growth 10.8% (13.4%) 23.3% (7.5%) 20.4% (0.0%) (4.6%)

EBITDA $50 $68 $33 $74 $47 $86 $77 $54

Margin 23.5% 28.9% 16.2% 29.3% 20.2% 30.7% 27.3% 20.3%
Growth 36.3% (51.6%) 123.2% (36.2%) 83.5% (11.3%) (29.2%)

Net Income $14 $24 $2 $30 $13 $39 $33 $19

Margin 6.6% 10.0% 1.1% 11.8% 5.5% 13.8% 11.8% 7.2%
Growth 68.1% (90.7%) 1250.1% (56.6%) 201.2% (14.1%) (41.7%)

SUMMARY VALUES - BEST CASE

Projected
($ Millions) Trend 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue $213 $237 $205 $264 $245 $297 $300 $282
Growth 10.8% (13.4%) 29.0% (7.4%) 21.5% 1.1% (6.3%)

EBITDA $50 $68 $33 $86 $59 $102 $95 $71

Margin 23.5% 28.9% 16.2% 32.4% 23.9% 34.3% 31.7% 25.1%
Growth 36.3% (51.6%) 158.3% (31.6%) 74.4% (6.7%) (25.9%)

Net Income $14 $24 $2 $37 $20 $49 $46 $30

Margin 6.6% 10.0% 1.1% 14.1% 8.3% 16.6% 15.2% 10.7%
Growth 68.1% (90.7%) 1594.2% (45.3%) 141.8% (7.6%) (33.8%)

SUMMARY VALUES - WORST CASE

Projected
($ Millions) Trend 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue $213 $237 $205 $238 $220 $263 $260 $245
Growth 10.8% (13.4%) 16.4% (7.7%) 19.3% (1.0%) (5.9%)

EBITDA $50 $68 $33 $61 $34 $68 $57 $34

Margin 23.5% 28.9% 16.2% 25.5% 15.4% 26.0% 21.9% 14.0%
Growth 36.3% (51.6%) 83.8% (44.3%) 101.5% (16.4%) (40.1%)

Net Income $14 $24 $2 $21 $4 $26 $20 $5

Margin 6.6% 10.0% 1.1% 8.9% 1.9% 10.1% 7.6% 2.1%
Growth 68.1% (90.7%) 864.8% (80.8%) 548.6% (25.6%) (74.1%)

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 Blu Containers Company
Inputs and Assumptions

GENERAL EQUITY

- First year of forecast in financial model: 2023 Stock Price - 05/13/25 $11.50
- Three scenarios have been used for Inflation, Product Pricing Fully Diluted Shares O/S (MM) - Dec. 31, 2022 14.80
and sales volume growth Common Dividend Payout Rate 20.0%

PRODUCT PRICING OPERATIONS

- The product pricing cases used in the model are as follows:

Pricing Case 2023 - 2027 Annual Factory Capacity (000's units): 420
Base Case Research Forecast
Best Case +4%
Worst Case (4%)

COSTS INTEREST RATES

Cost Item 2023 Increases

Raw Materials $226.0 per Unit Inflation on a unit basis Interest earned on Cash balances: 1.0%
Utilities $66.2 per Unit Inflation on a unit basis Interest rate on Bank Revolver: 6.0%
Rent $23.5 MM Inflation on a total basis Interest rate on Senior Secured Term Debt: 6.0%
Operating Labour $43.5 MM Inflation on a total basis
Other $2.0 MM Inflation on a total basis
SG&A $3.9 MM Inflation on a total basis

DEPRECIATION TAXES

- Depreciation Methodology Used: Straight Line

- Years remaining for depreciation of existing assets: 25 years Tax rate assumed in the model: 35.0%
- Years used for depreciation of new assets: 30 years Additional tax assumptions in "Other Assumptions" box

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 Blu Containers Company
Inputs and Assumptions

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Income Statement
Cost Adjustments - Gain/(Loss) MM $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Cash Flow Statement
Investing Activities - Other MM $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Capital Expenditures MM NEW FIXED ASSETS $16.0 $17.0 $17.3 $17.5 $18.0

Income Tax
Reduction in EBT for timing differences MM $5.0 $5.0 $5.0 $5.0 $5.0

Working Capital Days

Accounts Receivable days 48.0 44.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Inventories days 70.0 65.0 60.0 60.0 55.0
Prepaid Expenses days 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Other Assets days 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Accounts Payable days 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Other Liabilities days 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Change in Debt & Equity
Senior Term Debt Issuance / (Repayment) MM ($25.0) ($25.0) ($25.0) ($25.0) ($25.0)
Common Stock Issuance / (Buy-back) MM $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

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 Blu Containers Company
Economic and Sales Scenarios

SCENARIO SWITCH: 3 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

ECONOMIC SCENARIOS

Cost Inflation 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Base Case 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Best Case 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%
Worst Case 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

SALES SCENARIOS

Sales Price - $/Unit 768.0 696.0 792.0 768.0 720.0

Base Case 800.0 725.0 825.0 800.0 750.0
Best Case: +4.0% 832.0 754.0 858.0 832.0 780.0
Worst Case: -4.0% 768.0 696.0 792.0 768.0 720.0

Sales Volume Growth 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

Base Case 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Best Case 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Worst Case 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

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Blu Containers Company

Revenue Schedule

Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Pricing
Gross Sales Price ($/unit) 694.4 768.0 696.0 792.0 768.0 720.0
Cost Inflation (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Freight & Warehousing ($/unit) 100.0 102.5 105.1 107.7 110.4 113.1
Net Sales Price ($/unit) 594.4 665.5 590.9 684.3 657.6 606.9

Sales Volume
Annual Factory Capacity (000's units) 420.0 420.0 420.0 420.0 420.0

Sales Volume Growth (%) 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%

Annual Sales Volume (000's units) 344.5 358.2 372.6 383.8 395.3 403.2
Implied Operating Rate 85.3% 88.7% 91.4% 94.1% 96.0%

Revenue
Gross Revenue ($ MM) 239.2 275.1 259.3 303.9 303.6 290.3
Freight & Warehousing ($ MM) 34.4 36.7 39.1 41.3 43.6 45.6
Net Revenue ($ MM) $204.8 $238.4 $220.2 $262.6 $259.9 $244.7

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Blu Containers Company

Costs of Production Schedule

Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Annual Sales Volume (000's units) 344.5 358.2 372.6 383.8 395.3 403.2
Cost Inflation (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

COSTS PER UNIT

Variable Costs
Raw Materials ($/unit) 226.0 231.6 237.4 243.4 249.5
Utilities ($/unit) 66.2 67.9 69.6 71.3 73.1
Total Variable Costs ($/unit) 292.2 299.5 307.0 314.7 322.5
Fixed Costs
Rent ($/unit) 65.6 64.7 64.3 64.0 64.3
Operating Labour ($/unit) 121.4 119.7 119.1 118.5 119.1
Other ($/unit) 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5
Total Fixed Costs ($/unit) 192.6 189.8 188.9 188.0 188.9
Total Costs ($/unit) $484.8 $489.3 $495.9 $502.7 $511.4

COSTS IN MILLIONS
Variable Costs
Raw Materials ($ MM) 81.0 86.3 91.1 96.2 100.6
Utilities ($ MM) 23.7 25.3 26.7 28.2 29.5
Total Variable Costs ($ MM) 104.7 111.6 117.8 124.4 130.0
Fixed Costs
Rent ($ MM) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.9
Operating Labour ($ MM) 43.5 44.6 45.7 46.8 48.0
Other ($ MM) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Total Fixed Costs ($ MM) 69.0 70.7 72.5 74.3 76.2
Total Costs ($ MM) $173.7 $182.3 $190.3 $198.7 $206.2

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Blu Containers Company

Income Statement
($ Millions)
Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales Volume (000's units) 344.5 358.2 372.6 383.8 395.3 403.2
Revenue
Gross Revenue 244.8 269.3 239.2 275.1 259.3 303.9 303.6 290.3
Freight & Warehousing 31.3 32.7 34.4 36.7 39.1 41.3 43.6 45.6
Net Revenue 213.5 236.6 204.8 238.4 220.2 262.6 259.9 244.7

Cost of Sales 159.9 164.6 167.9 173.7 182.3 190.3 198.7 206.2
S,G & A 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
Total Costs 163.3 168.2 171.7 177.6 186.3 194.4 202.9 210.5

Cost Adjustments - Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 50.2 68.4 33.1 60.8 33.9 68.2 57.1 34.2

Depreciation 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5

EBIT 34.8 52.9 17.3 44.7 17.1 50.9 39.2 15.7
Interest Expense 15.0 15.0 14.0 12.0 10.9 10.2 8.9 7.8
EBT 19.8 37.9 3.3 32.7 6.3 40.7 30.3 7.9
Current Income Taxes 3.0 8.0 0.0 9.7 0.4 12.5 8.9 1.0
Deferred Income Taxes 2.7 6.2 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Total Income Taxes 5.7 14.2 1.1 11.4 2.2 14.3 10.6 2.8

Net Income $14.1 $23.7 $2.2 $21.2 $4.1 $26.5 $19.7 $5.1

Margins
EBITDA Margin 23.5% 28.9% 16.2% 25.5% 15.4% 26.0% 21.9% 14.0%
EBIT Margin 16.3% 22.4% 8.4% 18.7% 7.8% 19.4% 15.1% 6.4%
Return on Equity 0.9% 7.7% 1.5% 8.8% 6.2% 1.6%

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Blu Containers Company

Cash Flow Statement
($ Millions)
Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Operating Activities
Net Income 14.1 23.7 2.2 21.2 4.1 26.5 19.7 5.1
Depreciation & Amortization 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5
Deferred Income Taxes 2.7 6.2 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Changes in working capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 6.2 (0.8) (0.7) 3.6
Operating Cash Flow 32.2 45.4 19.1 39.1 28.8 44.7 38.6 28.9

Investing Activities
CAPEX OUTFLOW (14.1) (15.0) (15.5) (16.0) (17.0) (17.3) (17.5) (18.0)
Other (5.0) 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (19.1) (11.0) (12.5) (16.0) (17.0) (17.3) (17.5) (18.0)

Financing Activities BUILD THIS SECTION IN THE LAST

Revolver Issuance / (Repayment) 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 14.1 2.9 7.8 15.1
Term Debt Issuance / (Repayment) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0)
Common Shares Issuance/ (Buy-Back) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Common Dividends (2.8) (4.7) (2.4) (4.2) (0.8) (5.3) (3.9) (1.0)
Financing Cash Flow (27.8) (29.7) (27.4) (23.4) (11.8) (27.4) (21.1) (10.9)

Change in the Cash Position (14.7) 4.7 (20.8) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Beginning Cash 31.1 16.4 21.1 0.3 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)
Ending Cash 16.4 21.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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Blu Containers Company

Balance Sheet
($ Millions)
Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

ASSETS
Cash 16.4 21.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Accounts Receivable 27.0 27.8 28.3 31.4 26.5 28.8 28.5 26.8
Inventory 36.5 36.1 35.1 33.3 32.4 31.3 32.7 31.1
Prepaid Expenses 14.6 14.4 14.9 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9
Other 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Total Current Assets 95.9 101.2 79.8 80.4 75.3 77.3 79.1 76.5

Net PP&E 398.5 398.0 397.7 397.5 397.8 397.8 397.4 397.0
Other 19.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Total Long Term Assets 417.5 413.0 409.7 409.5 409.8 409.8 409.4 409.0

Total Assets $513.4 $514.2 $489.5 $489.9 $485.1 $487.1 $488.5 $485.5

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY

Bank Debt - Revolver 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 19.9 22.8 30.6 45.7
Accounts Payable 18.3 18.7 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.6
Other 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6
Total Current Liabilities 23.0 23.6 23.0 29.7 44.8 48.9 57.9 74.0

Deferred Income Taxes 0.7 6.9 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.3 15.0 16.8
Senior Secured Term Debt 250.0 225.0 200.0 175.0 150.0 125.0 100.0 75.0
Total Long Term Liabilities 250.7 231.9 208.0 184.8 161.5 138.3 115.0 91.8

Total Liabilities 273.7 255.5 231.0 214.4 206.3 187.1 172.9 165.7

Common Shares 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0
Retained Earnings 119.7 138.7 138.5 155.5 158.8 179.9 195.7 199.8
Shareholder's Equity 239.7 258.7 258.5 275.5 278.8 299.9 315.7 319.8

Total Liabilities and Equity $513.4 $514.2 $489.5 $489.9 $485.1 $487.1 $488.5 $485.5

Check 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

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Blu Containers Company

Depreciation Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Years Remaining Existing Assets: 25

Depreciation Years on New Assets: 30 WATERFALL SCHEDULE

Depreciation to Existing Assets $15.9 $15.9 $15.9 $15.9 $15.9

CAPEX Why vertical ? Mid year / Half year convention

2023 $16.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
2024 $17.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6
2025 $17.3 0.3 0.6 0.6
2026 $17.5 0.3 0.6
2027 $18.0 0.3

Total Depreciation $16.2 $16.7 $17.3 $17.9 $18.5

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Blu Containers Company

Income Tax Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
Tax Rate 35.0% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Accounting EBT (as is on I/S) A $32.7 $6.3 $40.7 $30.3 $7.9

Less: Reduction in EBT for timing differences (1) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Government EBT B $27.7 $1.3 $35.7 $25.3 $2.9

Accounting Taxes (35% of A) 11.4 2.2 14.3 10.6 2.8

Taxes as Appearing on Income Statement

Current Tax (35% of B) CASH 9.7 0.4 12.5 8.9 1.0
Increase (Decrease) in Deferred Income Taxes 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
Total Income Taxes (Same as Accounting Taxes Above) 11.4 2.2 14.3 10.6 2.8

(1) Assumes aggregate reduction in government pre-tax earnings due to timing differences between accounting and government rules.

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Blu Containers Company

Working Capital Schedule Non-int bearing CA & CL
($ Millions)
Projected
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Days per Year (days) 365 365 365 366 365 365 365
We need this row to calculate Rev/Day & Costs/Day
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue ($ MM) 236.6 204.8 238.4 220.2 262.6 259.9 244.7
Cost of Sales ($ MM) 164.6 167.9 173.7 182.3 190.3 198.7 206.2
=AR/Rev * Days
Days In Step 2 - Calculations Step 3 - Assumptions
Accounts Receivable (days) 42.9 50.4 48.0 44.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Inventories (days) 80.1 76.3 70.0 65.0 60.0 60.0 55.0
Prepaid Expenses (days) 31.9 32.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Other Assets (days) 4.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Accounts Payable (days) 41.5 39.6 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Other Liabilities (days) 10.9 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
=Rev/Days * AR Days
Account Balances Step 1 - from BS Step 4 - Calculations
Accounts Receivable ($ MM) 27.8 28.3 31.4 26.5 28.8 28.5 26.8
Inventories ($ MM) 36.1 35.1 33.3 32.4 31.3 32.7 31.1
Prepaid Expenses ($ MM) 14.4 14.9 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9
Other Assets ($ MM) 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Accounts Payable ($ MM) 18.7 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.6
Other Liabilities ($ MM) 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6
Net Working Capital ($ MM) CA-CL 56.5 56.5 56.6 50.4 51.2 51.9 48.3

Change in Working Capital ($ MM) Y/O/Y Diff.(PY - CY) $0.0 ($0.1) $6.2 ($0.8) ($0.7) $3.6
This goes to the CFS

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Blu Containers Company

Debt and Interest Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
FINANCING COMPONENT
Cash
Amount Outstanding - Beginning 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in Cash (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amount Outstanding - Ending $0.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Interest Rate 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Annual Interest Income $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Revolver
Operating Cash Flow 39.1 28.8 44.7 38.6 28.9
Investing Cash Flow (16.0) (17.0) (17.3) (17.5) (18.0)
Mandatory Debt Repayments (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0)
Common Stock Issuance / (Buy-back) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends (4.2) (0.8) (5.3) (3.9) (1.0)
FCF After Mandatory Debt Repayment and Dividend ($6.2) ($14.1) ($2.9) ($7.8) ($15.1)

Revolver Outstanding - Beginning 0.0 5.9 19.9 22.8 30.6

Additions / (Repayments) 5.9 14.1 2.9 7.8 15.1
Revolver Outstanding - Ending $0.0 $5.9 $19.9 $22.8 $30.6 $45.7
Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Annual Interest Expense $0.0 $0.4 $1.2 $1.4 $1.8

Senior Secured Term Debt

Amount Outstanding - Beginning 200.0 175.0 150.0 125.0 100.0
Additions / (Repayments) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0)
Amount Outstanding - Ending $200.0 $175.0 $150.0 $125.0 $100.0 $75.0
Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Annual Interest Expense $12.0 $10.5 $9.0 $7.5 $6.0

Net Interest Expense $12.0 $10.9 $10.2 $8.9 $7.8

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Blu Containers Company

Shareholders' Equity Schedule
($ Millions)
Projected
2022A 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Common Shares
Amount Outstanding - Beginning 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0
New Issuance / (Buy-Back) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amount Outstanding - Ending $120.0 $120.0 $120.0 $120.0 $120.0 $120.0
Dividend Payout Rate 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Net Income 21.2 4.1 26.5 19.7 5.1
Common Dividend $4.2 $0.8 $5.3 $3.9 $1.0

Retained Earnings
Amount Outstanding - Beginning 138.5 155.5 158.8 179.9 195.7
Net Income 21.2 4.1 26.5 19.7 5.1
Common Dividend (4.2) (0.8) (5.3) (3.9) (1.0)
Amount Outstanding - Ending $138.5 $155.5 $158.8 $179.9 $195.7 $199.8

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