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PROBABILITY_0

The document provides an introduction to probability, explaining its definition, basic concepts, and various rules for calculating probabilities of events. It covers topics such as sample spaces, events, equally likely events, complementary events, and the rules of probability including conditional probability and Bayes's formula. Additionally, it outlines important theorems related to probability values and their relationships.

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0 views

PROBABILITY_0

The document provides an introduction to probability, explaining its definition, basic concepts, and various rules for calculating probabilities of events. It covers topics such as sample spaces, events, equally likely events, complementary events, and the rules of probability including conditional probability and Bayes's formula. Additionally, it outlines important theorems related to probability values and their relationships.

Uploaded by

gabriel barribal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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I.

Introduction to Probability

• Probability is a way to measure the likelihood or chance of a random event


occurring.
• It's a branch of mathematics that helps us predict how likely events are to
happen.
• The value of probability is expressed as a number between 0 and 1.
o 0 means the event is impossible.
o 1 means the event is certain.

II. Basic Probability Concepts

• Probability Definition: Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to


occur.
• Formula for Probability:
o P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of possible
outcomes)
o Where:
▪ P(E) is the probability of an event happening.
▪ A favorable outcome is the outcome we are interested in.
▪ The total number of outcomes is the total number of possibilities.
• Example 1: Tossing a Coin
o When you toss a coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads (H) or tails
(T).
o The sample space is {H, T}.
o The probability of getting heads is 1/2, because there is 1 favorable
outcome (heads) out of 2 possible outcomes (heads or tails).
• Example 2: Tossing Two Coins
o When you toss two coins, there are four possible outcomes: (H, H), (H, T),
(T, H), (T, T).
o The sample space is {(H1,H2), (H1,T2), (T1,H2), (T1,T2)}.
o The probability of getting two heads is 1/4.
• Sample Space:
o A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
o It is represented by the symbol "S".
o A sample space can be finite (containing a limited number of outcomes).
o Sample spaces are written within curly braces { }.
• Example 3: Rolling a Die
o When you roll a single die, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
o Each outcome (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) is a sample point.
• Example 4: Rolling Two Dice
o When you roll two dice, there are 36 possible outcomes.
o The sample space consists of pairs of numbers, like (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), and
so on, up to (6,6).
III. Events

• An event is a specific outcome or a collection of outcomes from a random


experiment.
o It is a subset of the sample space.
• Example:
o If you roll a die, the event "getting an even number" is the subset {2, 4, 6}
of the sample space {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

IV. Calculating Probability of an Event

• If an event E can occur in 'r' ways out of 'n' possible ways, then the probability of
the event occurring is:
o P(E) = r / n
o The probability that the event will not occur is: P(E') = (n - r) / n = 1 - (r /
n)
o P(E) + P(E') = 1
• Example:
o In a bag with 5 red balls and 3 blue balls, the probability of drawing a red
ball is 5/8 (5 favorable outcomes out of 8 total outcomes).

V. Equally Likely Events

• Events that have the same probability of occurring are called equally likely events.
• Example:
o When you roll a fair die, each number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) has an equal
probability of 1/6.

VI. Complementary Events

• Complementary events are two events where there are only two possible
outcomes: either an event will occur, or it will not occur.
• Examples:
o A coin toss resulting in heads or tails.
o A student passing or not passing an exam.
o It will rain or not rain today.

VII. Counting Rules

• Counting rules help determine the number of possible outcomes in different


situations.
• Multiplicative Rule:
o If there are 'j' sets of elements, with n1 elements in the first set, n2 in the
second set, and so on, then the number of possible samples of 'j' elements
is n1 * n2 *... * nj.
• Permutation Rule:
o A permutation is an arrangement of elements in a specific order.
o The number of permutations of 'n' elements taken 'k' at a time is: P(n, k) =
n! / (n - k)!
• Partitions Rule:
o This rule applies when you want to divide 'n' distinct elements into 'k' sets
with specified sizes.
o The number of different partitions is: n! / (n1! n2! ... nk!), where n1 + n2
+ ... + nk = n.
• Combinations Rule:
o A combination is a selection of 'k' elements from a set of 'n' elements, where
the order does not matter.
o The number of combinations of 'k' elements chosen from 'n' is: C(n, k) = n!
/ (k! (n - k)!)

VIII. Rules of Probability

• These rules help calculate probabilities of events based on the probabilities of other
events.
• Mutually Exclusive Events:
o Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.
• Conditional Probability:
o The probability of event A occurring, given that event B has occurred, is
called conditional probability, denoted by P(A|B).
• Complement of an Event:
o The complement of an event A is the event that A does not occur, denoted
by P(A').
• Intersection of Events:
o The probability that both events A and B occur is the probability of the
intersection of A and B, denoted by P(A ∩ B). If A and B are mutually
exclusive, P(A ∩ B) = 0.
• Union of Events:
o The probability that event A or event B occurs is the probability of the union
of A and B, denoted by P(A ∪ B).
• Independent Events:
o If the occurrence of event A does not change the probability of event B,
then events A and B are independent.
• Dependent Events:
o If the occurrence of event A changes the probability of event B, then events
A and B are dependent.
• Rule of Subtraction:
o The probability that event A will occur is equal to 1 minus the probability
that event A will not occur: P(A) = 1 - P(A').
• Example:
o If the probability that it will rain is 0.3, then the probability that it will not
rain is 1 - 0.3 = 0.7.
• Rule of Multiplication:
o The probability that events A and B both occur is: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) *
P(B|A).
• Example:
o If you draw two cards from a deck without replacement, the probability of
drawing a heart and then another heart is (13/52) * (12/51).
• Rule of Addition:
o The probability that event A or event B occurs is: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) -
P(A ∩ B).
• Example:
o If the probability of an event A is 0.4 and the probability of event B is 0.5,
and the probability of both events occurring is 0.2, then the probability of
either event A or B occurring is 0.4 + 0.5 - 0.2 = 0.7.
• Conditional Probability
o The conditional probability of an event B given A is: P(B|A) = P(A and B) /
P(A)
• Bayes's Formula
o Bayes's formula is another way to calculate conditional probabilities: P(A|B)
= [P(B|A) * P(A)] / [P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|A') * P(A')].

IX. Basic Features & Theorems of Probability

• Probability values range from 0 to 1.


• The sum of probabilities of all possible events is 1.
• Theorem 1: The probability of the complementary event A' is given by P(A') = 1
- P(A).
• Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event is 0.
• Theorem 3: If B is a subset of A, then P(A ∩ B') = P(A) - P(B) and P(B) ≤ P(A).
• Theorem 4: For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
• Theorem 5: If A and B are any two events, then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩
B).
• Theorem 6: If A and B are independent events, then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B).

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