INTRODUCTION

Throughout human history, population increase has played a pivotal role

in determining economic growth, resource allocation, and environmental
sustainability. Many hypotheses, such as the Demographic Transition
Theory (DTT) and the Malthusian perspective, have been proposed by
academics over time in an effort to explain demographic shifts. Thomas
Malthus popularized the Malthusian viewpoint in 1798. It contends that
unbridled population expansion causes resource depletion, which in turn
causes crises like sickness and hunger. However, by classifying
demographic changes into four distinct stages that civilizations go through
as they grow, the DTT offers a more systematic examination of these
changes. Rapid population increase is still a major issue, especially in
emerging countries, because of its effects on resources. This project will
examine the tenets of the Malthusian viewpoint, delineate the phases of
the DTT, and create a connection between the four DTT stages and the
three primary world population trends—the industrial revolution, the
agricultural revolution, and hunting and gathering. This study attempts to
give a thorough grasp of population growth patterns and their
consequences for the future evolution of society by looking at these
theories and trends.

QUESTION 2

2.1 The Malthusian Theory on population growth, proposed by Thomas

Malthus in 1798 centres around the idea that population grows at an
exponential rate, while food production can only increase at an arithmetic
rate. This imbalance leads to unavoidable shortages of resources. Malthus
believed that if population growth is left unchecked, it will eventually
surpass the food supply, leading to a crisis. He identified war, famine and
disease as "positive checks” on population growth, which would increase
mortality rates and reduce the population to a more sustainable level.
Therefore, these events would restore balance, however, the cycle would
begin again as the population grows once more. Malthus also introduced
the concept of “preventative” checks such as delayed marriage and
celibacy, which could help limit population growth from reaching a crisis
point. Without such checks, the population would continue to grow to the
point of suffering and hardship.

Sources:

https://www.britannica.com/science/birth-control/Social-and-political-
aspects-of-birth-control#ref21860

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-introductiontosociology/chapter/
demographic-theories/
2.2 The Demographic Transition Theory (DTT) is a model that describes
the transformation of countries' population growth and structures over
time as they move from high to low birth and death rates, which are often
associated with socioeconomic development (Notestein, 1945).

The Demographic Transition Theory Stages:

Stage 1: High Stationary, pre-industrial societies have high
birth and death rates, resulting in low population growth.
Limited medical knowledge, poor sanitation, and food scarcity
all contribute to high death rates, while high fertility rates are
influenced by economic and cultural factors such as labour
demand (Kirk, 1996).
1. Stage 2: Early Expanding, death rates begin to decline due
to advancements in medicine, hygiene, and food production.
However, birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population
growth. This stage is characterized by industrialization and
improvements in public health (Chesnais, 1992).
2. Stage 3: Late Expanding, Birth rates are declining as social
standards shift and people, particularly women, get better
access to education, contraception, and employment
opportunities. Population growth slows dramatically during
this period, as the difference between birth and death rates
narrows (Coale, 1973).
3. Stage 4: Low Stationary, both birth and death rates are low,
resulting in a steady or slightly decreasing population.
Societies in this stage are often highly urbanised, with lower
fertility rates caused by lifestyle changes and economic
factors. This stage concludes the demographic transition (Livi-
Bacci, 2001).
4. Stage 5: Declining Stage, Birth rates fall below replacement
levels, resulting in population reducing, as seen in several
developed countries. This period raises worries regarding
ageing populations and labour shortages (Espenshade et al.,
2003).

In conclusion, the Demographic Transition Theory provides a

framework for understanding how population dynamics
evolve in response to socio-economic changes. It
demonstrates the shift from high birth and death rates in pre-
industrial societies to low rates in modern, industrialized ones.
Each stage reflects the interplay between technological
advancements, cultural shifts, and economic development. By
analysing these stages, policymakers can better predict
demographic trends and address challenges like
overpopulation, aging populations, or labour shortages,
ensuring sustainable growth and development.
2.3 The three global population trends being the hunter gathering period,
the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution can be compared
the the demographic transitional theories in several ways.

The hunting gathering period was a period filled with a culture of fishing
and hunting for animals as their main source of food. They also survived
by the nomadic means of constantly moving around as seasons would
change, and they needed to avoid needing to endure unbearable weather
conditions or scarce hunting opportunities in a certain area. 1

The hunter gathering period is likened to have preceded the demographic

transition, the pre-industrial demographic theoretical stage as, according
to Page and French, the population during this period was almost a zero
net growth rate. The fertility and mortality rates were almost equal to
each other as people and children died as much as they were born. This
was due to the limited yet fluctuating access to food. Not everyone could
be fed well leading to death. The fertility rate was relatively low due to the
lack of access to nutritious food during a woman’s child pregnancy and
the lack of hygienic methods during child birth. It stayed relatively the
same but was extremely low due to the lack of nutritious food supply.
However, there were unknown diseases that people caught that were
unable to be treated properly, leading to people dying and creating a high
death rate. This period did not last forever as it was overcome by the
agricultural revolution.2

The agricultural revolution was the pivot from the nomadic, hunter
gathering way of living to a life of permanent settlement in one area
through the discovery of proper housing, animal and plant farming. This
increased a reliable food supply. 3 The early agricultural revolution, known

1
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/hunter-gatherer-
culture/

2
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00438243.1972.9979533
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/evan.21869
3
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/development-agriculture/
as the Neolithic Revolution could be characterised to still be within the
first stage of the demographic transition.4

It consisted of the immediate shift from the hunter gathering stage to

plant farming and animal herding. Despite this, the mortality rate
happened to increase as the population got exposed to autoimmune,
inflammatory and airborne diseases. Some coming from the food and
others, simply coming from the overall environment. 5 The fertility rate
however increased as a result of better nutritious food supplies and better
child care techniques.6 The Neolithic Revolution, while a pivotal step in
human history, paradoxically led to a decline in hygiene and overall health
due to factors like denser settlements, changes in diet, and increased
exposure to disease agents. This stage could be characterised as the

The later part of the agricultural revolution, being the British and Green
Agricultural Revolution, could be likened to be within the second stage of
the demographic transition. It consisted of the increase of fertility rates
and the decline in death rate. This was as a result of the improved animal
herding and plant farming techniques. Technologies that helped with
farming were produced and techniques in selective animal breeding were
found. This period was the first step into the industrial revolution. This
positive step to increased food supply resulted in the further increase in
the fertility rate 7
and a decline of the death and infant mortality rate.

Such improvements in the agricultural revolution led to the increased

improvement in technology and as a result of that, the industrial
revolution came into being. It came with the business and economic
growth of the countries it took place in until it reached the entire world.
This was due to the effects of the improvements in the manufacturing of

4
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/development-
agriculture/

5
The Shadow of the Neolithic Revolution on Life Expectancy: A Double-Edged Sword
6
The Neolithic Revolution and Human Societies: Diverse Origins and Development Paths
18-19
7
Ahmed S Rahman https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Birth-and-Death-Rates-in-
England-top-Birth-Rates-in-Europe-bottom-sources-Galor_fig1_228419887
machines and food delivery. It created more job opportunities in factories
in the urban areas, leading to the increased urbanisation within the
population.8 Many women got exposed to education and were granted
employment opportunities, which allowed them an opportunity to plan
and decide when and if they would bear children. The fertility rate
therefore began to decline as women decided to work instead of bear
children, and if they had children, they had them in their adulthood. 9 The
mortality rate however, began to surge high as more people began to
move in and overpopulate the urban areas causing the lack of hygienic
control within the area. This opened doors to the development of diseases
which affected the majority of the population, leading to the increase in
mortality.10 The pivot into the decline of the mortality rate began when
more disease and sanitary control measures took place, leading to the
improvement of more people’s health.11 This period would fit into stage 3
and 4 of the demographic transition theories.

CONCLUSION

8
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/industrialization-labor-and-life/
9
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130430161940.htm#:~:text=
%22Improvements%20in%20economic%20development%2C%20such,correlate%20to
%20declining%20fertility%20rates%2C
10
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879981722000705#:~:text=The
%20Industrial%20Revolution%20led%20to,Roberts%20and%20Cox%2C%202000).
11
Interactions between industrial revolutions and epidemiological transitions and the
sixth epidemiologic transition