032020grain Wheat
032020grain Wheat
Global production is marginally higher as upward revisions for Argentina and India more than offset
reductions for Australia and Turkey. Global trade is raised slightly with much larger imports for
Turkey. Higher exports for Argentina and Russia more than offset lower projected shipments from
Canada and Australia. The projected U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.55 per
bushel.
WHEAT PRICES
Domestic: Prices for all U.S. wheat classes were down during the month of February, pressured by
competitor prices and losses in other markets related to the widening spread of COVID-19. Hard Red
Winter (HRW) dropped $8/ton to $222 and Soft Red Winter (SRW) fell $13/ton to $239. Soft White
Winter (SWW) lost $8/ton to $233 and Hard Red Spring (HRS) eased $3/ton to $256.
280
260
$/MT
240
220
200
180
320
300
280
260
$/MT
240
220
200
180
4.0 4,500
Argentina Marketing Year (Dec-Nov) Wheat Exports
3.5 4,000
3,500
3.0
3,000
2.5
Million MT
2,500
2.0
2,000
1.5
1,500
1.0
1,000
0.5 500
0.0 -
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Argentina’s exports are off to a blazing start in the 2019/20 marketing year. Typically, Argentina’s
largest export months are December through March; the pace this year is even faster than normal with
exports totaling more than 6 million tons, a record for December and January combined. Exporters
were motivated to move wheat quickly based on expectations of looming policy changes. In December,
Argentina’s newly elected government raised the export tax for wheat from approximately 7 percent to
12 percent. 1 Before the crop was harvested, however, exporters had already aggressively sold much of
the projected exportable supplies, anticipating the higher tax rate. Once the sales were made and the
supplies procured from producers, the export tax was fixed in advance of shipping the product. With
such a large supply sold in advance, shipments surged once the supplies became available. 2
Given that nearly all of Argentina’s 2019/20 wheat shipments had already been committed before the
December tax increase, that action is expected to have little effect on 2019/20 exports. Early indications
are that February shipments are back to seasonally normal levels. Over the next few months, exports
seem likely to wane seasonally.
Argentina exports wheat to a variety of markets. Brazil is a year-round destination for Argentina, buying
consistently to fulfill its needs. The United States and other suppliers may make some inroads into Brazil
with the newly applied 750,000-ton tariff-rate quota in place, but Argentina is set to continue as the
dominant supplier. In peak export months, Argentine wheat is competitive enough to reach a variety of
other markets in Africa and Asia. Recently, Argentine exports to Southeast Asia (particularly Indonesia,
Thailand, and Bangladesh) have flourished in light of tight Australian supplies.
1
Note that the previous export tax was pegged to the exchange rate. As of late 2019, the rate of 4 pesos per USD
equated to about 7 percent tax. The new export tax is a flat 12 percent. Similarly, corn was raised from about 7
percent to 12 percent; soy raised from approximately 25 percent to 30 percent (and subsequently to 33 percent).
For more detail, see the January Argentina Grain and Feed Update located here.
2
Similar to wheat, large advance sales were also made for corn and soybeans.
45
Russia Dominates Export Markets
40
35
Russia
30
MMT
USA
25
Canada
20 EU
Ukraine
15
10
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
For the third year in a row, Russia remains the leading global wheat exporter. With 3 consecutive
bumper crops, Russia continues to export large volumes and is now seeking new market opportunities.
Favorable weather, combined with improved production technology, has improved yields and quality.
With larger supplies, Russia has become increasingly competitive, gaining market share in price-sensitive
importing countries.
Russia's Share of its Top Markets*
14
Demand for Russian wheat is strong in price- 2014/15
sensitive markets. Currently, Egypt is the largest 12 2015/16
global importer, sourcing much of its demand 10 2016/17
from Russia. Russia typically dominates Turkey’s 2017/18
market, supplying more than two-thirds of its 8 2018/19
MMT
Distant, price-sensitive markets are also responding to Russia’s competitive pricing, causing a surge in
shipments to markets such as Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Indonesia. Increased demand for feed-quality
wheat in the Philippines has also created a spike in its overall wheat imports, with Russia as a major
supplier.
In addition, improving quality and large supplies have led Russia to seek additional market
opportunities, such as quality-sensitive markets where it had previously been limited. For example,
Russia has gained access to Algeria and Brazil and aims to enter the Iraqi market in the near future.
Improvements in Russian wheat quality have also stimulated recent discussions with the Philippines, a
market that has generally purchased most of its milling wheat from the United States.
As it expands its scope and seeks new market opportunities, Russia is expected to remain a formidable
export competitor.
3
For more details on Australia’s wheat production, see this month’s World Agricultural Production report.
4
Russia is also raised with competitive price dynamics as shown on global price section on page 5.
5
This month, upward revisions were also made to consumption for the years 2017/18 through 2019/20.
Production for 2019/20 was revised lower by 1.0 million tons.
Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama
Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands,
Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti,
Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto
Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos
Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands
South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas),
French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela
EU: includes countries in the customs union, including the UK (Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland,
Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom)
Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar, Iceland,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland
Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria,
Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia,
Taiwan
South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives
Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
Vietnam
Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main harvest, when
the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed begins a country's LMY for
that commodity (2019/20 starts in 2019); except for summer grains in certain Southern Hemisphere
countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second year begins the LMY (2019/20 starts in
2020). Key exporter LMY’s are:
For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website
(https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/): go to Reports, Reference Data, and then Data Availability.
Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years
and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed, industrial,
feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local marketing year exports.
Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however, reflect food, seed, industrial, feed,
and waste only.
Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables contain Trade
Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for analytical comparisons: wheat
is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.
EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union (EU27 plus
UK) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through 1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also
exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for grains are no longer maintained in the official
USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10, plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to
1999/00.
Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain
equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled
equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and mixed
grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.
The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Global Market Analysis, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,
Washington, DC 20250, prepared this publication. Information is gathered from official statistics of
foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attachés and
Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained
by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.
Note: For further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production March
2020. This publication is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service
Home Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov
Marketing Year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Production
United States (Jun-May) 47.4 51.3 52.3 5.7 7.1 5.9 371.1 364.3 347.8
Other 715.5 680.2 712.2 489.1 492.3 493.4 709.0 759.0 764.2
World Total 762.9 731.5 764.5 494.8 499.4 499.3 1,080.1 1,123.3 1,112.0
Domestic Consumption
United States (Jun-May) 29.3 30.0 31.7 4.3 4.6 4.2 314.0 310.5 313.6
Other 711.1 704.3 720.4 477.2 481.6 485.9 778.1 816.1 824.7
World Total 740.4 734.3 752.1 481.5 486.2 490.1 1,092.1 1,126.6 1,138.3
Ending Stocks
United States (Jun-May) 29.9 29.4 25.6 0.9 1.4 1.0 54.4 56.4 48.1
Other 253.6 248.2 261.5 161.7 173.9 181.3 287.2 264.4 249.2
World Total 283.5 277.6 287.1 162.6 175.3 182.3 341.6 320.8 297.3
TY Imports
United States (Jun-May) 4.4 3.5 2.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.3
Other 175.8 167.1 177.8 44.5 40.1 40.7 148.2 163.5 168.0
World Total 180.2 170.6 180.7 45.4 41.1 41.7 149.0 164.3 169.3
TY Exports
United States (Jun-May) 23.2 26.1 27.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 63.7 49.2 47.0
Other 160.8 149.3 156.6 44.9 40.2 41.3 89.1 122.7 126.5
World Total 184.0 175.4 184.1 47.7 43.3 44.5 152.8 171.9 173.5
Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and
exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.Marketing years for U.S. grains are:
Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat
only.
none
TY Exports
Argentina 8,750 12,275 14,000 12,680 13,000 13,500
Australia 15,780 22,061 15,512 9,835 8,400 8,200
Canada 22,099 20,297 22,019 24,476 23,500 23,000
China 729 748 1,004 1,006 1,100 1,100
European Union 34,760 27,439 23,383 23,310 32,000 32,000
Kazakhstan 7,413 7,257 8,519 8,780 6,000 6,000
Mexico 1,568 1,119 1,147 526 1,000 1,100
Russia 25,546 27,815 41,431 35,838 34,000 35,000
Turkey 5,605 6,177 6,218 6,215 6,800 6,800
Ukraine 17,431 18,107 17,775 16,019 20,500 20,500
Others 10,246 9,823 9,766 10,618 9,506 9,406
Subtotal 149,927 153,118 160,774 149,303 155,806 156,606
United States 21,817 29,318 23,226 26,069 27,500 27,500
World Total 171,744 182,436 184,000 175,372 183,306 184,106
none
TY Imports
Afghanistan 2,700 2,700 3,300 3,700 3,000 3,000
Algeria 8,153 8,414 8,172 7,515 7,000 6,500
Bangladesh 4,720 5,556 6,472 5,100 6,000 6,500
Brazil 5,922 7,788 6,702 7,442 7,500 7,300
China 3,476 4,410 3,937 3,145 4,000 4,000
Colombia 2,032 2,110 1,957 1,703 2,000 2,000
Egypt 11,925 11,175 12,407 12,347 12,500 12,500
European Union 6,928 5,299 5,824 5,762 5,300 4,800
Indonesia 10,045 10,190 10,763 10,934 11,000 11,000
Iraq 2,248 2,474 4,158 3,915 3,000 2,500
Japan 5,715 5,911 5,876 5,726 5,900 5,900
Kenya 1,634 1,774 2,158 2,000 2,300 2,300
Korea, South 4,420 4,667 4,269 3,908 4,100 4,100
Mexico 4,805 5,370 5,245 4,861 5,200 5,200
Morocco 4,496 5,344 3,672 3,724 4,800 4,800
Nigeria 4,410 4,972 5,162 4,585 5,100 5,100
Peru 1,879 1,961 2,030 2,109 2,100 2,100
Philippines 4,919 5,708 6,059 7,546 7,300 7,300
Saudi Arabia 2,931 3,716 3,449 2,898 3,200 3,200
Sudan 2,022 2,458 2,580 2,222 2,600 2,600
Thailand 4,691 4,064 3,173 2,899 3,300 3,300
Turkey 3,979 4,553 5,916 6,494 8,500 10,500
Uzbekistan 2,662 2,596 3,119 2,837 3,000 3,000
Vietnam 3,069 5,535 4,709 3,149 3,500 3,500
Yemen 3,332 3,278 3,010 3,675 3,800 3,800
Others 51,676 54,239 51,695 46,934 51,036 50,956
Subtotal 164,789 176,262 175,814 167,130 177,036 177,756
Unaccounted 3,900 2,881 3,811 4,739 3,370 3,450
United States 3,055 3,293 4,375 3,503 2,900 2,900
World Total 171,744 182,436 184,000 175,372 183,306 184,106
none
Production
Argentina 11,300 18,400 18,500 19,500 19,000 19,500
Australia 22,275 31,819 20,941 17,298 15,600 15,200
Brazil 5,540 6,730 4,264 5,428 5,200 5,200
Canada 27,647 32,140 30,377 32,201 32,350 32,350
China 132,639 133,271 134,334 131,430 133,590 133,590
Egypt 8,100 8,100 8,450 8,450 8,770 8,770
European Union 160,480 145,369 151,125 136,863 154,000 154,000
India 86,527 87,000 98,510 99,870 102,190 103,600
Iran 14,500 14,500 14,000 14,500 16,800 16,800
Kazakhstan 13,748 14,985 14,802 13,947 11,500 11,452
Pakistan 25,086 25,633 26,600 25,100 25,600 25,600
Russia 61,044 72,529 85,167 71,685 73,500 73,610
Turkey 19,500 17,250 21,000 19,000 19,000 18,000
Ukraine 27,274 26,791 26,981 25,057 29,000 29,000
Uzbekistan 6,965 6,940 6,941 6,000 6,800 6,800
Others 59,402 51,987 53,512 53,825 58,793 58,763
Subtotal 682,027 693,444 715,504 680,154 711,693 712,235
United States 56,117 62,832 47,380 51,306 52,258 52,258
World Total 738,144 756,276 762,884 731,460 763,951 764,493
none
Total Consumption
Algeria 10,250 10,350 10,450 10,750 10,850 10,850
Brazil 11,100 12,200 12,000 12,100 12,100 12,100
Canada 7,987 10,671 9,029 8,971 9,700 9,900
China 117,500 119,000 121,000 125,000 128,000 128,000
Egypt 19,200 19,400 19,800 20,100 20,400 20,400
European Union 129,850 128,000 130,400 123,200 127,000 126,500
India 88,548 97,234 95,677 95,629 98,000 98,000
Indonesia 9,100 10,000 10,600 10,600 10,700 10,700
Iran 16,100 16,250 15,900 16,100 16,400 16,400
Morocco 9,800 10,200 10,500 10,700 10,800 10,800
Pakistan 24,400 24,500 25,000 25,300 25,400 25,400
Russia 37,000 40,000 43,000 40,500 39,500 39,500
Turkey 18,000 17,400 18,500 18,800 18,600 19,700
Ukraine 12,200 10,300 9,800 8,800 8,900 8,900
Uzbekistan 9,350 9,300 9,700 9,600 9,600 9,600
Others 160,563 167,897 169,829 168,126 173,807 173,662
Subtotal 684,112 706,568 712,796 707,399 722,485 723,220
United States 31,943 31,865 29,250 30,024 31,706 31,706
World Total 716,055 738,433 742,046 737,423 754,191 754,926
none
Ending Stocks
Canada 5,178 6,931 6,732 6,040 5,640 5,990
China 96,996 114,929 131,196 139,765 148,255 148,255
European Union 15,490 10,719 13,885 10,000 10,300 10,300
India 14,540 9,800 13,230 16,992 20,702 22,112
Iran 11,166 10,416 8,066 6,236 6,136 6,136
Russia 5,604 10,823 12,026 7,819 8,294 7,404
Turkey 3,100 1,289 3,638 3,854 6,654 5,854
Others 66,227 65,658 64,854 57,479 56,471 55,507
Subtotal 218,301 230,565 253,627 248,185 262,452 261,558
United States 26,552 32,131 29,907 29,386 25,580 25,580
World Total 244,853 262,696 283,534 277,571 288,032 287,138
Feb Mar
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
TY Imports none
North America 8,370 9,169 10,071 8,842 8,550 8,600
Central America 1,832 1,995 1,910 1,911 2,015 2,005
South America 13,419 16,277 15,325 14,923 15,630 15,430
European Union - 28 6,928 5,299 5,824 5,762 5,300 4,800
Other Europe 1,896 2,047 1,931 1,905 1,910 1,800
Former Soviet Union - 12 7,166 7,035 7,862 7,828 7,960 8,060
Middle East 24,141 22,814 25,163 24,529 26,830 28,105
North Africa 27,866 28,426 27,441 26,949 27,400 26,900
Sub-Saharan Africa 22,724 22,089 25,412 22,196 26,045 26,195
East Asia 16,225 17,356 16,599 15,087 16,425 16,425
South Asia 8,823 15,565 11,932 9,960 10,121 10,621
Southeast Asia 25,307 28,219 27,255 27,381 27,935 27,935
Others 3,147 3,264 3,464 3,360 3,815 3,780
Total 167,844 179,555 180,189 170,633 179,936 180,656
Production none
North America 87,475 98,837 81,251 86,507 87,823 87,823
South America 21,584 28,737 26,202 28,804 28,081 28,551
European Union - 28 160,480 145,369 151,125 136,863 154,000 154,000
Other Europe 4,324 4,737 4,005 4,510 4,445 4,445
Former Soviet Union - 12 117,674 130,047 142,307 124,017 130,020 130,082
Middle East 42,406 38,814 41,560 39,365 46,480 45,480
North Africa 19,987 13,958 19,245 21,000 18,470 18,470
Sub-Saharan Africa 7,694 7,743 7,718 8,296 7,718 7,718
East Asia 133,972 134,738 135,645 132,823 135,007 135,007
South Asia 119,660 120,837 132,344 131,476 135,796 137,206
Oceania 22,689 32,278 21,346 17,668 16,010 15,610
Others 199 181 136 131 101 101
Total 738,144 756,276 762,884 731,460 763,951 764,493
Domestic Consumption none
North America 46,930 50,436 45,979 46,495 48,906 49,106
South America 27,715 28,565 29,008 28,820 29,325 29,325
European Union - 28 129,850 128,000 130,400 123,200 127,000 126,500
Other Europe 4,920 5,035 5,010 5,235 5,180 5,270
Former Soviet Union - 12 77,415 78,185 81,290 76,800 76,550 76,550
Middle East 58,427 58,517 59,955 60,139 62,280 62,880
North Africa 43,666 44,550 45,225 46,150 46,750 46,750
Sub-Saharan Africa 29,037 29,712 31,917 30,372 32,505 32,605
East Asia 130,782 132,915 134,401 138,081 141,120 141,120
South Asia 129,112 139,258 138,139 138,450 141,127 141,327
Southeast Asia 22,955 26,725 26,385 26,325 26,675 26,675
Oceania 8,500 8,835 8,905 10,600 10,165 10,165
Others 3,582 3,834 3,821 3,633 3,880 3,845
Total 712,891 734,567 740,435 734,300 751,463 752,118
Ending Stocks none
North America 32,390 39,938 37,407 36,029 31,738 31,988
South America 3,956 4,688 4,113 4,862 4,922 4,667
European Union - 28 15,490 10,719 13,885 10,000 10,300 10,300
Other Europe 1,632 2,002 1,945 1,924 2,139 2,044
Former Soviet Union - 12 16,982 21,438 21,177 15,209 15,120 14,301
Middle East 22,614 19,587 19,401 16,112 20,272 19,247
North Africa 16,848 14,277 14,864 15,471 13,606 13,106
Sub-Saharan Africa 3,830 3,000 3,378 2,728 3,031 3,081
East Asia 100,357 118,154 134,301 142,408 150,910 150,910
South Asia 20,826 16,530 21,116 21,537 25,237 26,947
Southeast Asia 5,379 5,920 5,694 5,662 5,882 5,882
Oceania 4,133 6,005 5,856 5,230 4,455 4,255
Others 416 438 397 399 420 410
Total 244,853 262,696 283,534 277,571 288,032 287,138
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.