Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-87517-2 - The Fundamentals of Political Science Research Paul M. Kellstedt and Guy D.

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THE FUNDAMENTALS OF POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH

Paul M. Kellstedts and Guy D. Whittens The Fundamentals of Political Science Research provides an introduction to the scientic study of politics, supplying students with the basic tools needed to be both critical consumers and producers of scholarly research in political science. The book begins with a discussion of what it means to take a scientic approach to the study of politics. At the core of such an approach is the development of causal theories. Because there is no magic formula by which theories are developed, the authors present a series of strategies and develop an integrated approach to research design and empirical analyses that allows students to determine the plausibility of their causal theories. The texts accessible presentation of mathematical concepts and regression models with two or more independent variables is a key component to this process, along with the integration of examples from political science and the real world to help students grasp the key concepts. Paul M. Kellstedt is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the American Politics Program at Texas A&M University. He is the author of The Mass Media and the Dynamics of American Racial Attitudes (2003), which won the Goldsmith Book Prize. Professor Kellstedt is also the author or co-author of articles appearing in scholarly journals such as American Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, and Political Analysis, as well as several book chapters. He has been an Academic Visitor at Nufeld College, Oxford, and a Harvard University Fellow in the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public Policy in the Kennedy School of Government. Guy D. Whitten is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the European Union Center at Texas A&M University. He has published a variety of papers in scholarly journals, including American Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, and Electoral Studies. Professor Whitten serves on the editorial board of Electoral Studies and has previously served on the editorial boards of Journal of Politics and Political Research Quarterly. He has been a visiting researcher at the University of Amsterdam and is a frequent instructor at the Summer School for Social Science Data Analysis and Collection at the University of Essex in the United Kingdom.

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THE FUNDAMENTALS OF

Political Science Research

Paul M. Kellstedt
Texas A&M University

Guy D. Whitten
Texas A&M University

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cambridge university press

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao Paulo, Delhi Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521697880 Paul M. Kellstedt and Guy D. Whitten 2009 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2009 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Kellstedt, Paul M., 1968 The fundamentals of political science research / Paul M. Kellstedt, Guy D. Whitten. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-521-87517-2 (hardback) ISBN 978-0-521-69788-0 (pbk.) 1. Political science Research. I. Whitten, Guy D., 1965 II. Title. JA86.K45 2009 320.072 dc22 2008035250 ISBN 978-0-521-87517-2 hardback ISBN 978-0-521-69788-0 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables, and other factual information given in this work are correct at the time of rst printing, but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter.

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Dedicated to Lyman A. Kellstedt, Charmaine C. Kellstedt, David G. Whitten, and Jo Wright-Whitten, the best teachers we ever had PMK and GDW

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Contents

Figures Tables Acknowledgments

page xv xvii xix

The Scientic Study of Politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Overview 1 1.1 Political Science? 1 1.2 Approaching Politics Scientically: The Search for Causal Explanations 3 1.3 Thinking about the World in Terms of Variables and Causal Explanations 7 1.4 Models of Politics 14 1.5 Rules of the Road to Scientic Knowledge about Politics 15 1.5.1 Make Your Theories Causal 15 1.5.2 Dont Let Data Alone Drive Your Theories 16 1.5.3 Consider Only Empirical Evidence 17 1.5.4 Avoid Normative Statements 17 1.5.5 Pursue Both Generality and Parsimony 18 1.6 A Quick Look Ahead 18 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 19 Exercises 20 The Art of Theory Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Overview 22 2.1 Good Theories Come from Good Theory-Building Strategies 22 2.2 Identifying Interesting Variation 23 2.2.1 Time-Series Example 24 2.2.2 Cross-Sectional Example 25 2.3 Learning to Use Your Knowledge 26 2.3.1 Moving from a Specic Event to More General Theories 26

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Contents

Know Local, Think Global: Can You Drop the Proper Nouns? 2.4 Examine Previous Research 2.4.1 What Did the Previous Researchers Miss? 2.4.2 Can Their Theory Be Applied Elsewhere? 2.4.3 If We Believe Their Findings, Are There Further Implications? 2.4.4 How Might This Theory Work at Different Levels of Aggregation (MicroMacro)? 2.5 Think Formally about the Causes That Lead to Variation in Your Dependent Variable 2.5.1 Utility and Expected Utility 2.5.2 The Puzzle of Turnout 2.6 Think about the Institutions: The Rules Usually Matter 2.6.1 Legislative Rules 2.6.2 The Rules Matter! 2.7 Extensions 2.8 How Do I Know If I Have a Good Theory? 2.8.1 Is Your Theory Causal? 2.8.2 Can You Test Your Theory on Data That You Have Not Yet Observed? 2.8.3 How General Is Your Theory? 2.8.4 How Parsimonious Is Your Theory? 2.8.5 How New Is Your Theory? 2.8.6 How Nonobvious Is Your Theory? 2.9 Conclusion Concepts Introduced in This Chapter Exercises

2.3.2

27 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 34 36 36 38 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 42 42 43 43

Evaluating Causal Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Overview 45 3.1 Causality and Everyday Language 45 3.2 Four Hurdles along the Route to Establishing Causal Relationships 48 3.2.1 Putting It All Together Adding Up the Answers to Our Four Questions 50 3.2.2 Identifying Causal Claims Is an Essential Thinking Skill 50 3.2.3 What Are the Consequences of Failing to Control for Other Possible Causes? 53 3.3 Why Is Studying Causality So Important? Three Examples from Political Science 54 3.3.1 Life Satisfaction and Democratic Stability 54 3.3.2 School Choice and Student Achievement 55 3.3.3 Electoral Systems and the Number of Political Parties 57

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Contents

Why Is Studying Causality So Important? Three Examples from Everyday Life 3.4.1 Alcohol Consumption and Income 3.4.2 Treatment Choice and Breast Cancer Survival 3.4.3 Explicit Lyrics and Teen Sexual Behavior 3.5 Wrapping Up Concepts Introduced in This Chapter Exercises

3.4

61 61 62 63 65 65 65 67 67 67 68 74 74 77 79 81 82 83 83 84 84

Research Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overview 4.1 Comparison as the Key to Establishing Causal Relationships 4.2 Experimental Research Designs 4.2.1 Random Assignment versus Random Sampling 4.2.2 Are There Drawbacks to Experimental Research Designs? 4.3 Observational Studies (in Two Flavors) 4.3.1 Datum, Data, Data Set 4.3.2 Cross-Sectional Observational Studies 4.3.3 Time-Series Observational Studies 4.3.4 The Major Difculty with Observational Studies 4.4 Summary Concepts Introduced in This Chapter Exercises

Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Overview 86 5.1 Why Measurement Matters 86 5.2 Social Science Measurement: The Varying Challenges of Quantifying Humanity 88 5.3 Problems in Measuring Concepts of Interest 91 5.3.1 Conceptual Clarity 91 5.3.2 Reliability 92 5.3.3 Measurement Bias and Reliability 93 5.3.4 Validity 94 5.3.5 The Relationship between Validity and Reliability 95 5.4 Controversy 1: Measuring Democracy 96 5.5 Controversy 2: Measuring Political Tolerance 99 5.6 Are There Consequences to Poor Measurement? 101 5.7 Conclusions 101 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 102 Exercises 102 Descriptive Statistics and Graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Overview 104 6.1 Know Your Data 104

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Contents

What Is the Variables Measurement Metric? 6.2.1 Categorical Variables 6.2.2 Ordinal Variables 6.2.3 Continuous Variables 6.2.4 Variable Types and Statistical Analyses 6.3 Describing Categorical Variables 6.4 Describing Continuous Variables 6.4.1 Rank Statistics 6.4.2 Moments 6.5 Limitations Concepts Introduced in This Chapter Exercises

6.2

105 106 106 107 108 109 110 111 114 118 118 118

Statistical Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Overview 120 7.1 Populations and Samples 120 7.2 Learning about the Population from a Sample: The Central Limit Theorem 122 7.2.1 The Normal Distribution 122 7.3 Example: Presidential Approval Ratings 128 7.3.1 What Kind of Sample Was That? 129 7.3.2 A Note on the Effects of Sample Size 130 7.4 A Look Ahead: Examining Relationships between Variables 131 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 132 Exercises 132 Bivariate Hypothesis Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Overview 134 8.1 Bivariate Hypothesis Tests and Establishing Causal Relationships 134 8.2 Choosing the Right Bivariate Hypothesis Test 135 8.3 All Roads Lead to p 136 8.3.1 The Logic of p-Values 136 8.3.2 The Limitations of p-Values 137 8.3.3 From p-Values to Statistical Signicance 138 8.3.4 The Null Hypothesis and p-Values 138 8.4 Three Bivariate Hypothesis Tests 139 8.4.1 Example 1: Tabular Analysis 139 8.4.2 Example 2: Difference of Means 145 8.4.3 Example 3: Correlation Coefcient 150 8.5 Wrapping Up 155 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 156 Exercises 157 Bivariate Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overview 9.1 Two-Variable Regression 9.2 Fitting a Line: Population Sample
159 159 159 160

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Which Line Fits Best? Estimating the Regression Line Measuring Our Uncertainty about the OLS Regression Line 9.4.1 Goodness-of-Fit: Root Mean-Squared Error 9.4.2 Goodness-of-Fit: R-Squared Statistic 9.4.3 Is That a Good Goodness-of-Fit? 9.4.4 Uncertainty about Individual Components of the Sample Regression Model 9.4.5 Condence Intervals about Parameter Estimates 9.4.6 Hypothesis Testing: Overview 9.4.7 Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests 9.4.8 The Relationship between Condence Intervals and Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests 9.4.9 One-Tailed Hypothesis Tests 9.5 Assumptions, More Assumptions, and Minimal Mathematical Requirements 9.5.1 Assumptions about the Population Stochastic Component 9.5.2 Assumptions about Our Model Specication 9.5.3 Minimal Mathematical Requirements 9.5.4 How Can We Make All of These Assumptions? Concepts Introduced in This Chapter Exercises

9.3 9.4

162 165 167 167 169 169 171 172 173 175 175 177 177 180 181 181 182 182

10

Multiple Regression Models I: The Basics . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Overview 183 10.1 Modeling Multivariate Reality 183 10.2 The Population Regression Function 184 10.3 From Two-Variable to Multiple Regression 184 10.4 What Happens When We Fail to Control for Z? 188 10.4.1 An Additional Minimal Mathematical Requirement in Multiple Regression 192 10.5 Interpreting Multiple Regression 193 10.6 Which Effect Is Biggest? 196 10.7 Statistical and Substantive Signicance 198 10.8 Implications 199 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 200 Exercises 200 Multiple Regression Models II: Crucial Extensions . . . . . . 202 Overview 202 11.1 Extensions of OLS 202 11.2 Being Smart with Dummy Independent Variables in OLS 203 11.2.1 Using Dummy Variables to Test Hypotheses about a Categorical Independent Variable with Only Two Values 203 11.2.2 Using Dummy Variables to Test Hypotheses about a Categorical Independent Variable with More Than Two Values 207

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Contents

Testing Interactive Hypotheses with Dummy Variables Dummy Dependent Variables 11.4.1 The Linear Probability Model 11.4.2 Binomial Logit and Binomial Probit 11.4.3 Goodness-of-Fit with Dummy Dependent Variables 11.5 Outliers and Inuential Cases in OLS 11.5.1 Identifying Inuential Cases 11.5.2 Dealing with Inuential Cases 11.6 Multicollinearity 11.6.1 How Does Multicollinearity Happen? 11.6.2 Detecting Multicollinearity 11.6.3 Multicollinearity: A Simulated Example 11.6.4 Multicollinearity: A Real-World Example 11.6.5 Multicollinearity: What Should I Do? 11.7 Being Careful with Time Series 11.7.1 Time-Series Notation 11.7.2 Memory and Lags in Time-Series Analysis 11.7.3 Trends and the Spurious Regression Problem 11.7.4 The Differenced Dependent Variable 11.7.5 The Lagged Dependent Variable 11.8 Wrapping Up Concepts Introduced in This Chapter

11.3 11.4

210 212 212 215 219 220 221 224 225 226 227 228 230 232 233 233 234 236 239 241 242 243

12

Multiple Regression Models III: Applications . . . . . . . . . 244 Overview 244 12.1 Why Controlling for Z Matters 244 12.2 Example 1: The Economy and Presidential Popularity 245 12.3 Example 2: Politics, Economics, and Public Support for Democracy 248 12.4 Example 3: Competing Theories of How Politics Affects International Trade 251 12.5 Conclusions 253 Concepts Introduced in This Chapter 254 Exercises 254
Appendix A. Critical Values of 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 Appendix B. Critical Values of t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 Appendix C. The Appendix D. The Bibliography Index Link Function for BNL Models . . . . . . . . . . 257 Link Function for BNP Models . . . . . . . . . . 259 261 265

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Figures

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

The road to scientic knowledge page 4 From theory to hypothesis 9 What would you expect to see based on the theory of economic voting? 10 What would you expect to see based on the theory of economic voting? Two hypothetical cases 12 What would you expect to see based on the theory of economic voting? 12 What would you expect to see based on the theory of economic voting? Two hypothetical cases 13 Presidential approval, 19952005 24 Military spending in 2005 25 Gross U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP, 19602004 42 Women as a percentage of members of parliament, 2004 43 The path to evaluating a causal relationship 51 Theoretical causes of the number of parties in legislatures 57 Nazi vote and the number of parties winning seats in Weimar Republic elections, 19191933 59 Number of parties winning seats in German Bundestag elections, 19492002 60 The possibly confounding effects of a healthy lifestyle on the aspirinblood-pressure relationship 71 Reliability, validity, and hypothesis testing 96 Polity IV score for Pakistan 98 Pie graph of religious identication, NES 2004 110 Bar graph of religious identication, NES 2004 110 Example output from Statas summarize command with detail option 111 Box-whisker plot of incumbent-party presidential vote percentage, 18802004 114 Histogram of incumbent-party presidential vote percentage, 18802004 116

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Figures

Histograms of incumbent-party presidential vote percentage, 18802004, depicted with 2 and then 10 blocks 6.7 Kernel density plot of incumbent-party presidential vote percentage, 18802004 7.1 The normal probability distribution 7.2 The 689599 rule 7.3 Frequency distribution of 600 rolls of a die 8.1 Box-whisker plot of Government Duration for majority and minority governments 8.2 Kernel density plot of Government Duration for majority and minority governments 8.3 Scatter plot of change in GDP and incumbent-party vote share 8.4 Scatter plot of change in GDP and incumbent-party vote share with mean-delimited quadrants 8.5 What is wrong with this table? 9.1 Scatter plot of change in GDP and incumbent-party vote share 9.2 Three possible lines 9.3 OLS regression line through scatter plot with mean-delimited quadrants 9.4 Stata results for two-variable regression model of VOTE = + GROWTH 9.5 Venn diagram of variance and covariance for X and Y 10.1 Venn diagram in which X, Y, and Z are correlated 10.2 Venn diagram in which X and Y are correlated with Z, but not with each other 11.1 Stata output when we include both gender dummy variables in our model 11.2 Regression lines from the interactive model 11.3 Regression lines from the interactive model 11.4 Three different models of Bush vote 11.5 Stata lvr2plot for the model presented in Table 11.8 11.6 OLS line with scatter plot for Florida 2000 11.7 Venn diagram with multicollinearity 11.8 The growth of golf and the decline of the American family, 19472002 11.9 The growth of the U.S. economy and the decline of the family, 19472002 11.10 First differences of the number of golf courses and percentage of married families, 19472002 12.1 A simple causal model of the relationship between the economy and presidential popularity 12.2 A revised model of presidential popularity

6.6

117 117 123 124 124 147 147 151 152 156 162 163 165 166 168 191 192 204 207 212 218 222 223 226 237 238 240 245 246

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Tables

4.1 4.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

8.5 8.6

8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 9.1 10.1 10.2 11.1 11.2
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Example of cross-sectional data page 80 Example of time-series data 81 Frequency table for religious identication in the 2004 NES 109 Values of incumbent vote ranked from smallest to largest 113 Median incomes of the 50 states, 20042005 119 Variable types and appropriate bivariate hypothesis tests 135 Union households and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election 140 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election: Hypothetical scenario 141 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election: Expectations for hypothetical scenario if there were no relationship 142 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election 142 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election: Calculating the expected cell values if gender and presidential vote are unrelated 142 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election 142 Gender and vote in the 2004 U.S. presidential election 143 Government type and government duration 149 Contributions of individual election years to the covariance calculation 153 Covariance table for economic growth and incumbent-party presidential vote, 18802004 154 Incumbent reelection rates in U.S. congressional elections, 19642006 157 Measures of total residuals for three different lines 164 Three regression models of U.S. presidential elections 193 Bias in 1 when the true population model is 201 Yi = + 1 Xi + 2 Zi + ui but we leave out Z Two models of the effects of gender and income on Hillary Clinton Thermometer scores 205 Religious Identication in the 1996 NES 208

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Tables

11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.10 11.11 11.12 11.13 11.14 11.15 12.1

12.2 12.3

The same model of religion and income on Hillary Clinton Thermometer scores with different reference categories The effects of gender and feelings toward the womens movement on Hillary Clinton Thermometer scores The effects of partisanship and performance evaluations on votes for Bush in 2004 The effects of partisanship and performance evaluations on votes for Bush in 2004: Three different types of models Classication table from LPM of the effects of partisanship and performance evaluations on votes for Bush in 2004 Votes for Gore and Buchanan in Florida counties in the 2000 U.S. presidential election The ve largest (absolute-value) DFBETA scores for from the model presented in Table 11.8 Votes for Gore and Buchanan in Florida counties in the 2000 U.S. presidential election Random draws of increasing size from a population with substantial multicollinearity Pairwise correlations between independent variables Model results from random draws of increasing size from the 2004 NES Golf and the decline of the family, 19472002 GDP and the decline of the family, 19472002 Excerpts from the table of MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson on the relationship between the economy and presidential popularity Excerpts from the table of Evans and Whiteeld on the relationship between the economy and support for democracy Excerpts from the table of Morrow, Siverson, and Tabares on the political causes of international trade

209 211 213 217 219 222 224 225 230 231 232 238 239

246 250 252

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Acknowledgments

An inevitable part of the production of a book like this is an accumulation of massive intellectual debts. We have been overwhelmed by both the quality and quantity of help that we have received from our professional (and even personal) contacts as we have gone through every stage of this project. This book arose out of more than 20 years of combined teaching experience at Brown University, the University of California, Los Angeles, the University of Essex, the University of Minnesota, and Texas A&M University. We tried out most of the examples in this book on numerous classes of students before we rened them into their present state. We thus owe a debt to every student who raised his or her hand or showed us a furrowed brow as we worked our way through these attempts to explain the complicated processes of scientically studying politics. More immediately, this project came out of separate and skeptical conversations that each author had with Ed Parsons during his visit to Texas A&M in the spring of 2006. Without Eds perfect balance of candor and encouragement, this book would not have been started. At every stage in the process he has helped us immensely. He obtained three sets of superbly helpful reviews and seemed always to know the right times to be in and out of touch as we worked our way through them. It has been a tremendous pleasure to work with Ed on the book. Throughout the process of writing this book, we got a steady stream of support, understanding, and patience from Christine, Deb, Abigail, and Elizabeth. We thank them for putting up with our crazy hours and for helping us to keep things in perspective as we worked on this project. For both authors, the lines separating family, friends, and professional colleagues are pretty blurry. We relied on our combined networks quite heavily at every stage in the production of this book. Early in the process of putting the manuscript together, we received sage advice from Jeff Gill about textbook writing for social scientists and how to handle early versions of our chapters. Our fathers, Lyman A. Bud Kellstedt and David
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Acknowledgments

G. Whitten, provided their own unique and valuable perspectives on early drafts of the book. In separate but related ongoing conversations, John Transue and Alan M. Brookhart engaged us in lengthy debates about the nature of experiments, quasi-experiments, and observational studies. Other colleagues and friends provided input that also improved this book, including Harold Clarke, Geoffrey Evans, John Jackson, Marisa Kellam, Eric Lawrence, Christine Lipsmeyer, Evan Parker-Stephen, David Peterson, James Rogers, Randy Stevenson, Georg Vanberg, Rilla Whitten, and Jenifer Whitten-Woodring. Despite all of this help, we remain solely responsible for any deciencies that persist in the book. We look forward to hearing about them from you so that we can make future editions of this book better. Throughout the process of writing this book, we have been mindful of how our thinking has been shaped by our teachers at a variety of levels. We are indebted to them in ways that are difcult to express. In particular, Guy Whitten thanks the following, all from his days at the University of Rochester: Larry M. Bartels, Richard Niemi, G. Bingham Powell, Lynda Powell, William H. Riker, and David Weimer. Paul Kellstedt thanks Al Reynolds and Bob Terbog of Calvin College; Michael Lewis-Beck, Vicki Hesli, and Jack Wright at the University of Iowa; and Jim Stimson and John Freeman at the University of Minnesota. Although we have learned much from the aforementioned professors, we owe our largest debt to our parents: Lyman A. Bud Kellstedt, Charmaine C. Kellstedt, David G. Whitten, and Jo Wright-Whitten. We dedicate this book to the four of them the best teachers we ever had.

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