Project Management: Cpm/Pert by Dr. Neeraj Anand

Project Management
CPM/PERT
By
Dr. Neeraj Anand
Basic Concepts in the Development of Project Construction Plans
Project Construction planning

is a fundamental and challenging activity in the
management and execution of construction
projects.
It involves the choice of technology, the definition
of work tasks, the estimation of the required
resources and durations for individual tasks, and
the identification of any interactions among the
different work tasks.
Cont.
Choice of Technology & Construction Method
As in the development of appropriate

alternatives for facility design, choices of
appropriate
technology
and
methods
for
construction are often ill-structured yet critical
ingredients in the success of the project.
For example, a decision whether to pump or to
transport concrete in buckets will directly affect
the cost and duration of tasks involved in building
construction.
A decision between these two alternatives should
consider the relative costs, reliabilities, and
availability of equipment for the two transport
methods.
Ambuja Cement in H.P. has longest Conveyor
Planning Activities and Tasks
Anactivityis any subdivision of project tasks.

Generally, it is representated by an arrow.
The set of activities defined for a project should
becomprehensiveor completelyexhaustiveso
that all necessary work tasks are included in one
or more activities. Typically, each design element
in the planned facility will have one or more
associated project activities.
Execution of an activity requires time and
resources, including manpower and equipment.
The time required to perform an activity is called
thedurationof the activity.
Cont.
Even further, the sub-task "clean concrete

forms" could be subdivided into the various
operations:
Transport forms from on-site storage and unload
onto the cleaning station.
Position forms on the cleaning station.
Wash forms with water.
Clean concrete debris from the form's surface.
Coat the form surface with an oil release agent
for the next use.
Unload the form from the cleaning station and
transport to the storage location.
Example: Task Definition for a Road

Building Project
Project Planning Techniques

Gantt Chart
CPM - Critical Path Method
DuPont developed a Critical Path Method

(CPM) designed to address the challenge of
shutting down chemical plants for
maintenance and then restarting the plants
once the maintenance had been completed.
Complex project, like the above example, require
a series of activities, some of which must be
performed sequentially and others that can be
performed in parallel with other activities. This
collection of series and parallel tasks can be
modeled as a network.
Cont.
Steps in CPM Project Planning

1. Specify the individual activities.
2. Determine the sequence of those activities.
3. Draw a network diagram.
4. Estimate the completion time for each activity.
5. Identify the critical path (longest path through
the network)
6. Update the CPM diagram as the project
progresses.
Cont.
CPM Benefits
Provides a graphical view of the project.
Predicts the time required to complete the project.
Shows which activities are critical to maintaining the
schedule and which are not.
CPM Limitations
While CPM is easy to understand and use, it does not
consider the time variations that can have a great impact
on the completion time of a complex project. CPM was
developed for complex but fairly routine projects with
minimum uncertainty in the project completion times. For
less routine projects there is more uncertainty in the
completion times, and this uncertainty limits its usefulness.
Example
PERT
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT) is a network model that allows for
randomness in activity completion times. PERT
was developed in the late 1950's for the U.S.
Navy's Polaris project having thousands of
contractors.
It has the potential to reduce both the time and
cost required to complete a project.
Cont.
Steps in the PERT Planning Process

PERT planning involves the following steps:
1. Identify the specific activities and milestones.
2. Determine the proper sequence of the
activities.
3. Construct a network diagram.
4. Estimate the time required for each activity.
5. Determine the critical path.
6. Update the PERT chart as the project
progresses.
Cont.
Benefits of PERT
PERT is useful because it provides the following
information:
Expected project completion time.
Probability of completion before a specified date.
The critical path activities that directly impact the
completion time.
The activities that have slack time and that
can lend resources to critical path activities.
Activities start and end dates.
Can be used for calculating variance or standard
deviation of the project.
Cont.
Limitations of PERT
The following are some of PERT's limitations:
The activity time estimates are somewhat
subjective and depend on judgment. In cases where
there is little experience in performing an activity,
the numbers may be only a guess. In other cases, if
the person or group performing the activity
estimates the time there may be bias in the
estimate.
The underestimation of the project completion time
due to alternate paths becoming critical is perhaps
the most serious.
Example
Consider a task whose best/nominal/worst
estimate is 3/5/9. The expected completion time
() is assumed to be (4*nominal + best +
worst)/6, or in our case (4*5+3+9)/6 or about
5.33. The standard deviation (s) is assumed to be
(worst - best)/6 or (9-3)/6 or 1.
Now consider a simple project consisting of three
tasks. We represent this as a simple chart with
circles and arrows. The circles denote events,
and the arrows denote tasks.
If the first task begins on day zero, what day can
we expect the third task to complete? The chart
below shows the expected durations, and we can
just add them up. So the expected duration of
Cont.
A more interesting question is the probability of
making that date. A bit of simple reflection will
convince you that if the estimates are correct then
there is a 50-50 chance that the project will finish on
time. There is just as much chance that it will be late
as early.
The end date for the project is a random variable that

has its own and s. We already know that for the
project is 21 days. The s for the project can be
calculated by summing s 2 for each task, and taking
the square root of the result, or (12 + 1.332 +
1.332)
= 2.13.
Performance Monitoring
once the project is completed, performance

review should be done periodically to compare
actual performance with projected performance.
Feedback on project is useful in several ways:
a) It helps us to know how realistic were the
assumptions underlying the project
b) It provides a documented log of experience
that is highly valuable in decision making in
future projects
c) It suggests corrective action to be taken in the
light of actual performance d) It helps in
uncovering judgmental biases
e) It includes a desired caution among project
Implementation Plan for Top Management
As a result of energy audit, many

energy saving opportunities would
emerge. These could be classified
broadly
as measures with and
without investment. House keeping
measures and moderate
cost
measures need no
intervention
from top management.
TERMINOLOGY
PERT event: a point that marks the start or

completion of one or more activities
Predecessor event: an event that immediately
precedes some other event without any other
events intervening.
Successor event: an event that immediately
follows some other event without any other
intervening events.
PERT activity: the actual performance of a task
which consumes time and requires resources
(such as labor, materials, space, machinery).
optimistic time (O): the minimum possible time
required to accomplish a task, assuming
Cont.
pessimistic time (P): the maximum possible time
required to accomplish a task, assuming everything
goes wrong (but excluding major catastrophes)
most likely time (M): the best estimate of the time
required to accomplish a task, assuming everything
proceeds as normal.
expected time (TE): the best estimate of the time
required to accomplish a task. Expected time is the
average time the task would require if the task were
repeated on a number of occasions over an
extended period of time
TE = (O + 4M + P) 6
Cont.
float or slack is a measure of the excess time
and resources available to complete a task. It is
the amount of time that a project task can be
delayed without causing a delay in any
subsequent tasks (free float) or the whole project
(total float). Positive slack would indicate ahead
of schedule; negative slack would indicate behind
schedule; and zero slack would indicate on
schedule
critical path: the longest possible continuous
pathway taken from the initial event to the
terminal event.
critical activity: An activity that has total float
equal to zero
Lead time: the time by which a predecessor

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Project Management

Basic Concepts in the Development of Project Construction Plans

Project Construction planning

Choice of Technology & Construction Method

As in the development of appropriate

Planning Activities and Tasks

Anactivityis any subdivision of project tasks.

Even further, the sub-task "clean concrete

Example: Task Definition for a Road

Project Planning Techniques

CPM - Critical Path Method

DuPont developed a Critical Path Method

Steps in CPM Project Planning

Steps in the PERT Planning Process

The end date for the project is a random variable that

once the project is completed, performance

Implementation Plan for Top Management

As a result of energy audit, many

PERT event: a point that marks the start or

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