Maximum-Likelihood Estimation
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation
estimation
A general method for
estimating parameters in a
model
1 i
Residuals:ri yi E[Yi ]
The method of leastsquares:
Find
the values for the parameters (0 and
1) that makes the sum of the squared
residuals (rj2) as small as possible.
1 i
1 i
Residuals:ri yi E[Yi ]
The maximum
likelihood method
-is
Can
be applied
to models
more
general!
with any probability
distribution
1
2
Infected of
observatio
: 1
p
n:
1-p
1-p
1-p
1-p
10
method (discrete
distribution):
1.Write down the probability
of each observation by using
the model parameters
2.Write down the probability
of all the
data4
6
Pr(Data | p) p (1 p )
1-p
1-p
1-p
10
1-p
0.0008
0.0004
L( p) Pr( Data | p ) p 6 (1 p ) 4
0.0000
Infected of
observatio
: 1
p
n:
L(p, K, N)
Ind.:
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
p
0.8
1.0
Exercises!