Concepts and Techniques: - Chapter 8
Concepts and Techniques: - Chapter 8
Concepts and Techniques: - Chapter 8
Concepts and
Techniques
(3rd ed.)
— Chapter 8 —
or missing values
Typical applications
Credit/loan approval:
4
Classification—A Two-Step
Process
Model construction: describing a set of predetermined classes
Each tuple/sample is assumed to belong to a predefined class, as
mathematical formulae
Model usage: for classifying future or unknown objects
Estimate accuracy of the model
5
Process (1): Model
Construction
Classification
Algorithms
Training
Data
Classifier
Testing
Data Unseen Data
(Jeff, Professor, 4)
NAME RANK YEARS TENURED
Tom Assistant Prof 2 no Tenured?
Merlisa Associate Prof 7 no
George Professor 5 yes
Joseph Assistant Prof 7 yes
7
Chapter 8. Classification: Basic
Concepts
Classification: Basic Concepts
Decision Tree Induction
Bayes Classification Methods
Rule-Based Classification
Model Evaluation and Selection
Techniques to Improve Classification Accuracy:
Ensemble Methods
Summary
8
Decision Tree Induction: An
Example
age income student credit_rating buys_computer
<=30 high no fair no
Training data set: Buys_computer <=30 high no excellent no
The data set follows an example of 31…40 high no fair yes
>40 medium no fair yes
Quinlan’s ID3 (Playing Tennis) >40 low yes fair yes
Resulting tree: >40 low yes excellent no
31…40 low yes excellent yes
age? <=30 medium no fair no
<=30 low yes fair yes
>40 medium yes fair yes
<=30 medium yes excellent yes
<=30 overcast
31..40 >40 31…40 medium no excellent yes
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no
no yes no yes
9
Algorithm for Decision Tree
Induction
Basic algorithm (a greedy algorithm)
Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divide-and-conquer
manner
At start, all the training examples are at the root
discretized in advance)
Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected
attributes
Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or
Gain(income) 0.029
>40 low yes excellent no
31…40 low yes excellent yes
<=30 medium no fair no
<=30
>40
low
medium
yes
yes
fair
fair
yes
yes
Gain( student ) 0.151
<=30
31…40
medium
medium
yes
no
excellent
excellent
yes
yes Gain(credit _ rating ) 0.048
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no 12
for Continuous-Valued
Attributes
Let attribute A be a continuous-valued attribute
Must determine the best split point for A
Sort the value A in increasing order
Typically, the midpoint between each pair of adjacent values is
considered as a possible split point
(ai+ai+1)/2 is the midpoint between the values of ai and ai+1
The point with the minimum expected information
requirement for A is selected as the split-point for A
Split:
D1 is the set of tuples in D satisfying A ≤ split-point, and D2 is
the set of tuples in D satisfying A > split-point
13
Gain Ratio for Attribute
Selection (C4.5)
Information gain measure is biased towards attributes with a
large number of values
C4.5 (a successor of ID3) uses gain ratio to overcome the
problem (normalization to information gain)
v | Dj | | Dj |
SplitInfo A ( D) log 2 ( )
j 1 |D| |D|
GainRatio(A) = Gain(A)/SplitInfo(A)
Ex.
or outliers
Poor accuracy for unseen samples
methods)
convertible to simple and easy to understand classification
rules
can use SQL queries for accessing databases
21
Scalability Framework for
RainForest
22
Rainforest: Training Set and Its
AVC Sets
24
Presentation of Classification
Results
2
P ( X | C i ) g ( xk , C i , C i )
33
Naïve Bayesian Classifier: Training
Dataset
age income studentcredit_rating
buys_compu
<=30 high no fair no
Class: <=30 high no excellent no
C1:buys_computer = ‘yes’ 31…40 high no fair yes
C2:buys_computer = ‘no’ >40 medium no fair yes
>40 low yes fair yes
>40 low yes excellent no
Data sample
31…40 low yes excellent yes
X = (age <=30,
<=30 medium no fair no
Income = medium, <=30 low yes fair yes
Student = yes >40 medium yes fair yes
Credit_rating = Fair) <=30 medium yes excellent yes
31…40 medium no excellent yes
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no
34
Naïve Bayesian Classifier: An
Example
P(Ci): P(buys_computer = “yes”) = 9/14 = 0.643
P(buys_computer = “no”) = 5/14= 0.357
Compute P(X|Ci) for each class
P(age = “<=30” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 2/9 = 0.222
P(age = “<= 30” | buys_computer = “no”) = 3/5 = 0.6
P(income = “medium” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 4/9 = 0.444
P(income = “medium” | buys_computer = “no”) = 2/5 = 0.4
P(student = “yes” | buys_computer = “yes) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(student = “yes” | buys_computer = “no”) = 1/5 = 0.2
P(credit_rating = “fair” | buys_computer = “yes”) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(credit_rating = “fair” | buys_computer = “no”) = 2/5 = 0.4
X = (age <= 30 , income = medium, student = yes, credit_rating = fair)
P(X|Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = “yes”) = 0.222 x 0.444 x 0.667 x 0.667 = 0.044
P(X|buys_computer = “no”) = 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.4 = 0.019
P(X|Ci)*P(Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = “yes”) * P(buys_computer = “yes”) = 0.028
P(X|buys_computer = “no”) * P(buys_computer = “no”) = 0.007
Therefore, X belongs to class (“buys_computer = yes”) 35
Avoiding the Zero-Probability
Problem
Naïve Bayesian prediction requires each conditional prob. be
non-zero. Otherwise, the predicted prob. will be zero
n
P( X | C i) P( x k | C i )
k 1
Ex. Suppose a dataset with 1000 tuples, income=low (0),
income= medium (990), and income = high (10)
Use Laplacian correction (or Laplacian estimator)
Adding 1 to each case
“uncorrected” counterparts
36
Naïve Bayesian Classifier:
Comments
Advantages
Easy to implement
Disadvantages
Assumption: class conditional independence, therefore loss of
accuracy
Practically, dependencies exist among variables
Bayesian Classifier
How to deal with these dependencies? Bayesian Belief Networks
(Chapter 9)
37
Chapter 8. Classification: Basic
Concepts
Classification: Basic Concepts
Decision Tree Induction
Bayes Classification Methods
Rule-Based Classification
Model Evaluation and Selection
Techniques to Improve Classification Accuracy:
Ensemble Methods
Summary
38
Using IF-THEN Rules for
Classification
Represent the knowledge in the form of IF-THEN rules
R: IF age = youth AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes
Rule antecedent/precondition vs. rule consequent
per class
Rule-based ordering (decision list): rules are organized into one long priority
40
Rule Induction: Sequential
Covering Method
Sequential covering algorithm: Extracts rules directly from training
data
Typical sequential covering algorithms: FOIL, AQ, CN2, RIPPER
Rules are learned sequentially, each for a given class Ci will cover
many tuples of Ci but none (or few) of the tuples of other classes
Steps:
Rules are learned one at a time
Each time a rule is learned, the tuples covered by the rules are
removed
The process repeats on the remaining tuples unless termination
Examples covered
Examples covered by Rule 2
by Rule 1 Examples covered
by Rule 3
Positive
examples
42
Rule Generation
To generate a rule
while(true)
find the best predicate p
if foil-gain(p) > threshold then add p to current rule
else break
A3=1&&A1=2
A3=1&&A1=2
&&A8=5A3=1
Positive Negative
examples examples
43
How to Learn-One-Rule?
Start with the most general rule possible: condition = empty
Adding new attributes by adopting a greedy depth-first strategy
Picks the one that most improves the rule quality
condition
pos' pos
FOIL _ Gain pos'(log2 log 2 )
pos' neg ' pos neg
favors rules that have high accuracy and cover many positive tuples
Rule pruning based on an independent set of test tuples
pos neg
FOIL _ Prune( R)
pos neg
Pos/neg are # of positive/negative tuples covered by R.
If FOIL_Prune is higher for the pruned version of R, prune R
44
Chapter 8. Classification: Basic
Concepts
Classification: Basic Concepts
Decision Tree Induction
Bayes Classification Methods
Rule-Based Classification
Model Evaluation and Selection
Techniques to Improve Classification Accuracy:
Ensemble Methods
Summary
45
Model Evaluation and Selection
Evaluation metrics: How can we measure accuracy? Other
metrics to consider?
Use test set of class-labeled tuples instead of training set when
assessing accuracy
Methods for estimating a classifier’s accuracy:
Holdout method, random subsampling
Cross-validation
Bootstrap
Comparing classifiers:
Confidence intervals
Cost-benefit analysis and ROC Curves
46
Classifier Evaluation Metrics:
Confusion Matrix
Confusion Matrix:
Actual class\Predicted class C1 ¬ C1
C1 True Positives (TP) False Negatives (FN)
¬ C1 False Positives (FP) True Negatives (TN)
48
Precision and Recall, and F-
measures
Precision: exactness – what % of tuples that the classifier labeled
as positive are actually positive
49
Classifier Evaluation Metrics:
Example
50
Holdout & Cross-Validation
Methods
Holdout method
Given data is randomly partitioned into two independent sets
obtained
Cross-validation (k-fold, where k = 10 is most popular)
Randomly partition the data into k mutually exclusive subsets,
data
*Stratified cross-validation*: folds are stratified so that class
dist. in each fold is approx. the same as that in the initial data
51
Evaluating Classifier Accuracy:
Bootstrap
Bootstrap
Works well with small data sets
Samples the given training tuples uniformly with replacement
i.e., each time a tuple is selected, it is equally likely to be selected
again and re-added to the training set
Several bootstrap methods, and a common one is .632 boostrap
A data set with d tuples is sampled d times, with replacement, resulting in
a training set of d samples. The data tuples that did not make it into the
training set end up forming the test set. About 63.2% of the original data
end up in the bootstrap, and the remaining 36.8% form the test set (since
(1 – 1/d)d ≈ e-1 = 0.368)
Repeat the sampling procedure k times, overall accuracy of the model:
52
Estimating Confidence Intervals:
Classifier Models M1 vs. M2
Suppose we have 2 classifiers, M1 and M2, which one is better?
Use 10-fold cross-validation to obtain and
These mean error rates are just estimates of error on the true
population of future data cases
What if the difference between the 2 error rates is just
attributed to chance?
Use a test of statistical significance
Obtain confidence limits for our error estimates
53
Estimating Confidence Intervals:
Null Hypothesis
Perform 10-fold cross-validation
Assume samples follow a t distribution with k–1 degrees of
freedom (here, k=10)
Use t-test (or Student’s t-test)
Null Hypothesis: M1 & M2 are the same
If we can reject null hypothesis, then
we conclude that the difference between M1 & M2 is
statistically significant
Chose model with lower error rate
54
Estimating Confidence Intervals: t-test
where k1 & k2 are # of cross-validation samples used for M1 & M2, resp.
55
Estimating Confidence Intervals:
Table for t-distribution
Symmetric
Significance level,
e.g., sig = 0.05 or
5% means M1 & M2
are significantly
different for 95% of
population
Confidence limit, z
= sig/2
56
Estimating Confidence Intervals:
Statistical Significance
Are M1 & M2 significantly different?
Compute t. Select significance level (e.g. sig = 5%)
Consult table for t-distribution: Find t value corresponding to k-1
degrees of freedom (here, 9)
t-distribution is symmetric: typically upper % points of
distribution shown → look up value for confidence limit z=sig/2
(here, 0.025)
If t > z or t < -z, then t value lies in rejection region:
Reject null hypothesis that mean error rates of M & M are
1 2
same
Conclude: statistically significant difference between M & M
1 2
Otherwise, conclude that any difference is chance
57
Model Selection: ROC
Curves
ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics)
curves: for visual comparison of
classification models
Originated from signal detection theory
Shows the trade-off between the true
positive rate and the false positive rate
The area under the ROC curve is a Vertical axis
measure of the accuracy of the model represents the true
Rank the test tuples in decreasing order: positive rate
the one that is most likely to belong to
Horizontal axis rep.
the positive class appears at the top of the false positive rate
the list The plot also shows a
diagonal line
The closer to the diagonal line (i.e., the
closer the area is to 0.5), the less
A model with perfect
accuracy will have an
accurate is the model area of 1.0
58
Issues Affecting Model Selection
Accuracy
classifier accuracy: predicting class label
Speed
time to construct the model (training time)
time to use the model (classification/prediction time)
Robustness: handling noise and missing values
Scalability: efficiency in disk-resident databases
Interpretability
understanding and insight provided by the model
Other measures, e.g., goodness of rules, such as decision tree
size or compactness of classification rules
59
Chapter 8. Classification: Basic
Concepts
Ensemble methods
Use a combination of models to increase accuracy
classifiers
Boosting: weighted vote with a collection of classifiers
61
Bagging: Boostrap Aggregation
Analogy: Diagnosis based on multiple doctors’ majority vote
Training
Given a set D of d tuples, at each iteration i, a training set D of d tuples is
i
sampled with replacement from D (i.e., bootstrap)
A classifier model M is learned for each training set D
i i
62
Boosting
Analogy: Consult several doctors, based on a combination of
weighted diagnoses—weight assigned based on the previous
diagnosis accuracy
How boosting works?
Weights are assigned to each training tuple
A series of k classifiers is iteratively learned
After a classifier Mi is learned, the weights are updated to allow
the subsequent classifier, Mi+1, to pay more attention to the
training tuples that were misclassified by Mi
The final M* combines the votes of each individual classifier,
where the weight of each classifier's vote is a function of its
accuracy
Boosting algorithm can be extended for numeric prediction
Comparing with bagging: Boosting tends to have greater accuracy,
but it also risks overfitting the model to misclassified data
63
Adaboost (Freund and Schapire,
1997)
Given a set of d class-labeled tuples, (X1, y1), …, (Xd, yd)
Initially, all the weights of tuples are set the same (1/d)
Generate k classifiers in k rounds. At round i,
Tuples from D are sampled (with replacement) to form a training set
Di of the same size
Each tuple’s chance of being selected is based on its weight
A classification model Mi is derived from Di
Its error rate is calculated using Di as a test set
If a tuple is misclassified, its weight is increased, o.w. it is decreased
Error rate: err(Xj) is the misclassification error of tuple Xj. Classifier Mi
error rate is the sum of the weights of the misclassified tuples:
d
error ( M i ) w j err ( X j )
j
returned
Two Methods to construct Random Forest:
Forest-RI (random input selection): Randomly select, at each node, F
attributes as candidates for the split at the node. The CART methodology
is used to grow the trees to maximum size
Forest-RC (random linear combinations): Creates new attributes (or
rare class tuples are easier to classify, and hence, less chance of
costly false negative errors
Ensemble techniques: Ensemble multiple classifiers introduced
above
Still difficult for class imbalance problem on multiclass tasks
66
Chapter 8. Classification: Basic
Concepts
68
Summary (II)
Significance tests and ROC curves are useful for model selection.
There have been numerous comparisons of the different
classification methods; the matter remains a research topic
No single method has been found to be superior over all others
for all data sets
Issues such as accuracy, training time, robustness, scalability,
and interpretability must be considered and can involve trade-
offs, further complicating the quest for an overall superior
method
69
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80
Surplus Slides
81
Issues: Evaluating Classification
Methods
Accuracy
classifier accuracy: predicting class label
Speed
time to construct the model (training time)
82
Gain Ratio for Attribute Selection
(C4.5) (MK:contains errors)
but gini{medium,high} is 0.30 and thus the best since it is the lowest
All attributes are assumed continuous-valued
May need other tools, e.g., clustering, to get the possible split values
Can be modified for categorical attributes
84
Predictor Error Measures
Measure predictor accuracy: measure how far off the predicted value is from
the actual known value
Loss function: measures the error betw. yi and the predicted value yi’
Absolute error: | yi – yi’|
Squared error: (yi – yi’)2
Test error (generalization error):
d the average loss over the test setd
Mean absolute error: | y Mean
i 1
y '|i
squared error:
i (y
i 1
i yi ' ) 2
d d
d
d
| y Relative
y '|
i i
( yi yi ' ) 2
Relative absolute error: i 1 squared error: i 1
d
d
| y
i 1
i y|
(y
i 1
i y)2
tree earlier
RainForest (VLDB’98 — Gehrke, Ramakrishnan & Ganti)
Builds an AVC-list (attribute, value, class label)
86
Data Cube-Based Decision-Tree
Induction
Integration of generalization with decision-tree induction
(Kamber et al.’97)
Classification at primitive concept levels
E.g., precise temperature, humidity, outlook, etc.
Low-level concepts, scattered classes, bushy classification-
trees
Semantic interpretation problems
Cube-based multi-level classification
Relevance analysis at multi-levels
Information-gain analysis with dimension + level
87
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