PROBABILITY AND STATISTIC

Week #4
Counting Probability of event -2

1
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• One very important concept in probability theory is
conditional probability.
• The probability of an event B occurring when it is known
that some event A has occurred is called a conditional
probability and is denoted by P(B|A)
• The symbol P(B|A) is usually read “the probability that B
occurs given that A occurs” or simply “the probability of B,
given A.”
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Consider the event B of getting a perfect square when a die is
tossed. The die is constructed so that the even numbers are
twice as likely to occur as the odd numbers. Based on the
sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, with probabilities of 1/9 and
2/9 assigned, respectively, to the odd and even numbers
• Now suppose that it is known that the toss of the die resulted
in a number greater than 3. We are now dealing with a
reduced sample space A = {4, 5, 6}, which is a subset of S.
• To find the probability that B occurs, relative to the space A,
we use this formula
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who
have completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall categorize them
according to gender and employment status. The data are given in Table 2.1.

• One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the

country to publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in the town. We
shall be concerned with the following events: M: a man is chosen, E: the one
chosen is employed.
• Find the probability of P(M|E)
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Example 2.34: The probability that a regularly scheduled flight
departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time
is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives
on time, given that it departed on time, and (b) departed on time,
given that it has arrived on time.
• one can calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D’),
that is,the probability that it arrives on time, given that it
did not depart on time= P(A|D) =P(A ∩ D’)/P(D’)=
(0.82 − 0.78)/0.17= 0.24.
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Example 2.35: The concept of conditional probability has
countless uses in both industrial and biomedical applications.
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which
strips of a particular type of cloth are being produced. These
strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of
texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification
is very complicated. It is known from historical information on
the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the
texture test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected
randomly from the process and a quick measurement identifies
it as failing the length test, what is the probability that it is
texture defective?
• Solution : Consider the events
• L: length defective, T: texture defective.
• Given that the strip is length defective, the probability that this
strip is texture defective is given by
• P(T|L) =P(T ∩ L)/P(L)=0.008/0.1= 0.08.
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Independent Events
• consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in
succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
events are defined as
A: the first card is an ace,
B: the second card is a spade
• Since the first card is replaced, our sample space for both the
first and the second draw consists of 52 cards, containing 4
aces and 13 spades. Hence,
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

• Example 2.36: Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession
without replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
• Solution : We shall let A be the event that the first fuse is defective and B the event
that the second fuse is defective; then we interpret A ∩ B as the event that A occurs
and then B occurs after A has occurred. The probability of first removing a defective
fuse is 1/4; then the probability of removing a second defective fuse from the
remaining 4 is 4/19. Hence,
• P(A ∩ B) =(1/4) (4//19)=1/19
.
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Example 2.37: One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black
balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black
balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in
the second bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn
from the second bag is black?
• Solution : Let B1, B2 , and W represent, respectively, the
2 1

drawing of a black ball from bag 1, a black ball from bag 2, and
a white ball from bag 1. We are interested in the union of the
mutually exclusive events B1∩ B2 and W1 ∩ B2. The various
possibilities and their probabilities are illustrated in Figure 2.8.
Now
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule

• Example 2.38: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance
available for emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available
when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available
when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will
be available, assuming they operate independently.
• Solution : Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine
and the ambulance are available. Then
• P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016.
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule

• Example 2.40: Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary
deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the event A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is
the event that the first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a
jack, and A3 is the event that the third card is greater than 3 but lessthan 7.
• Solution : First we define the events
• A1: the first card is a red ace,
• A2: the second card is a 10 or a jack,
• A3: the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
Conditional Probability,
Independence, and the Product Rule
• Example 2.40: Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Find the probability that the event A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that
the first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event
that the third card is greater than 3 but lessthan 7.
• Solution : First we define the events
• A1: the first card is a red ace,
• A2: the second card is a 10 or a jack,
• A3: the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
Exercise (in your practice book)
• A class in advanced physics is composed of 10 juniors, 30 seniors, and
10 graduate students. The final grades show that 3 of the juniors, 10 of
the seniors, and 5 of the graduate students received an A for the
course. If a student is chosen at random from this class and is found to
have earned an A, what is the probability that he or she is a senior?
• A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by sex and their
level of education attained.

If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that
• (a) the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education;
• (b) the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a
female.
Exercise
• One bag contains 2 bottle of aspirin and 3 bottle of antangin, and a second bag contains 3 bottle
of aspirin, 2 bottle of antangin, and 1 bottle of comix. One ball is drawn from the first bag and
placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that:
• The bottle drawn from the first and second bag is antangin?
• The bottle drawn from the first and second bag is not comix?
• The bottle drawn from the first and second bag is different?
• In an experiment to study the relationship of hypertension and smoking habits, the
following data are collected for 180 individuals where H and NH in the table stand for
Hypertension and Non hypertension, respectively. If one of these individuals is
selected at random, find the probability that the person is
(a) experiencing hypertension, given that the person is a heavy smoker;
(b) a nonsmoker, given that the person is experiencing no hypertension.
Exercise
• In USA Today (Sept. 5, 1996), the results of a survey involving the use of sleepwear
while traveling were listed as follows:

a. What is the probability that a traveler is male?

b. Assuming the traveler is male, what is the probability that he sleeps in pajamas?
c. What is the probability that a traveler is male if the traveler sleeps in pajamas or a T-shirt?
• The probability that a married man watches a certain television show is 0.4, and the
probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a
man watches the show, given that his wife does, is 0.7. Find the probability that
a. a married couple watches the show;
b. a wife watches the show, given that her husband does;
c. at least one member of a married couple will watch the show.
Exercise
• The probability that a vehicle entering the Luray Caverns has
Canadian license plates is 0.12; the probability that it is a camper is
0.28; and the probability that it is a camper with Canadian license
plates is 0.09. What is the probability that
a. a camper entering the Luray Caverns has Canadian license plates?
b. a vehicle with Canadian license plates entering the Luray Caverns is a
camper?
c. a vehicle entering the Luray Caverns does not have Canadian plates or is
not a camper
• The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular illness is
0.7. Given that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the
probability that the patient files a lawsuit is 0.9. What is the probability
that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis and the patient sues?
Exercise
• A circuit system is given in Figure 2.11. Assume the
components fail independently. What is the probability
that the entire system works?

2 5 6 10

0,6 0,9 0,8

0,9

1 3 7

0,9 0,7 0,6

4 8 11

0,8
0,5 0,7

0,8
Bayes’ Rule-total probability
Bayes’ Rule- Bayes’ Rule-total probability
Bayes’ Rule-total probability
• Referring to the tree diagram of
Figure 2.15, we find that the three
branches give the probabilities
• P(B1)P(A|B1) = (0.3)(0.02) = 0.006,
• P(B2)P(A|B2) = (0.45)(0.03) =
0.0135,
• P(B3)P(A|B3) = (0.25)(0.02) = 0.005,
and hence
• P(A) = 0.006 + 0.0135 + 0.005 =
0.0245.
Bayes’ Rule

• Example 2.42: With reference to Example 2.41, if a product was chosen

randomly and found to be defective, what is the probability that it was
made by machine B3?
Solution : Using Bayes’ rule to write
Bayes’ Rule
• Example 2.43: A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design
and development of a particular product. For cost reasons, all three are used at
varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the
products, respectively. The defect rate is different for the three procedures as
follows: P(D|P1) = 0.01, P(D|P2) = 0.03, P(D|P3) = 0.02, where P(D|Pj) is the
probability of a defective product, given plan j. If a random product was observed
and found to be defective, which plan was most likely used and thus responsible?
• Solution : From the statement of the problem P(P1) = 0.30, P(P2) = 0.20, and
P(P3) = 0.50, we must find P(Pj |D) for j = 1, 2, 3. Bayes’ rule (Theorem 2.14)
shows
Exercise
• In a certain region of the country it is known from past
experience that the probability of selecting an adult over
40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a
doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as
having the disease is 0.78 and the probability of
incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having
the disease is 0.06, what is the probability that an adult
over 40 years of age is diagnosed as having cancer?
what is the probability that a person diagnosed as having
cancer actually has the disease?
Exercise
• Suppose that the four inspectors at a film factory are supposed to stamp the expiration
date on each package of film at the end of the assembly line. John, who stamps 20% of
the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 200 packages; Tom, who
stamps 60% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 100
packages; Jeff, who stamps 15% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once
in every 90 packages; and Pat, who stamps 5% of the packages, fails to stamp the
expiration date once in every 200 packages. If a customer complains that her package of
film does not show the expiration date, what is the probability that it was inspected by
John? If a random package was observed and found to be fail, which plan was most
likely have responsible?

• A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range
sales, the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that
purchase latex paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semigloss paint buyers
purchase rollers. A randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of paint. What
is the probability that the paint is latex?