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    Bayes'

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    Pulkit Agarwal
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem and how it can be used to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain prior probabilities. It then provides an example problem involving calculating the probability that a defective item came from a specific machine based on production percentages and defect rates of two machines. The full solution uses Bayes' theorem and determines there is a 68% chance the defective item came from machine 1.

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    Bayes'

    Uploaded by

    Pulkit Agarwal
    18 views15 pages
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem and how it can be used to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain prior probabilities. It then provides an example problem involving calculating the probability that a defective item came from a specific machine based on production percentages and defect rates of two machines. The full solution uses Bayes' theorem and determines there is a 68% chance the defective item came from machine 1.

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    The document discusses Bayes' theorem and how it can be used to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain prior probabilities. It then provides an example problem involving calculating the probability that a defective item came from a specific machine based on production percentages and defect rates of two machines. The full solution uses Bayes' theorem and determines there is a 68% chance the defective item came from machine 1.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    18 views15 pages

    Bayes'

    Uploaded by

    Pulkit Agarwal
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem and how it can be used to calculate the probability of an event occurring given certain prior probabilities. It then provides an example problem involving calculating the probability that a defective item came from a specific machine based on production percentages and defect rates of two machines. The full solution uses Bayes' theorem and determines there is a 68% chance the defective item came from machine 1.

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    You are on page 1of 15

    Bayes’ Theorem

     If A1, A2, A3, …. An is a set of mutually exclusive


    and equally likely events, and B is another
    event such that P(B) ≠ 0

     P(A1/B) = P(A1). P(B/ A1)


    ∑ [P(Ai). P(B/ Ai)]

    1
    Q: Assume that a factory has two machines. Past
    records show that machine 1 produced 30% of
    the items of output and machine 2 produced
    70% of the items. Further 5% of the items
    produced by machine 1 were defective and
    only 1% produced by machine 2 were
    defective. If a defective item is drawn at
    random, what is the probability that the
    defective item was produced by machine 1 or
    machine 2?

    2
    Let A1 be the event of drawing an item produced by
    machine 1;
    A2 be the event of drawing an item produced by
    machine 2; and
    B be the event of drawing a defective item produced
    either by machine 1 or machine 2.

    Given, P(A1) = 30% = 0.30


    P(A2) = 70% = 0.70
    Also, P(B/A1) = 5% = 0.05
    P(B/A2) = 1% = 0.01

    3
    probability that the defective item was produced by machine 1 = P(A1/B) = ?

    Using Bayes’ Theorem,

    P(A1/B) = P(A1). P(B/ A1)


    ∑ [P(Ai). P(B/ Ai)]

    = P(A1). P(B/ A1)


    [P(A1). P(B/ A1)] + [P(A2). P(B/ A2)]

    = 0.30 x 0.05
    0.30 x 0.05 + 0.70 x 0.01

    = 0.681 = 68%

    4
     Implies that
    P(A2/B) = 1 - P(A1/B) ; as there are only 2
    machines in the given system.
    = 1 – 0.681 = 0. 319 = 32%
     Implies that
    P( defective item coming from Machine 1) >
    P( defective item coming from Machine 2)

    i.e, chances are more from Machine 1


    i.e, machine 1 to be rectified.
    5
    Random Variable (X)
     Outcome of a random experiment

     Eg: X: No. of Heads obtained while tossing a


    coin
    S = { H, T}
    X: 0, 1

    6
    Probability Distribution
     Listing out all X values and corresponding
    probabilities

    Eg: If X is No. of Heads obtained while tossing a


    coin,
    Probability Distribution is,
    X : 0 1
    P(X) : 0.5 0.5 Σ P(X) = 1

    7
     Discrete Probability Distribution

     Where X is discrete
    Eg: No. of heads/tails while tossing a coin

     Continuous Probability Distribution

     Where X is continuous
    Eg: Life length of a bulb

    8
    Expected Value
    If X is a discrete random variable with values
    X1,
    X2, X3, X4, …, Xn with corresponding
    probabilities p1, p2, p3, p4, …, pn, where p1 + p2,
    p3 + p4 + …, pn = 1,

    Expected value of X = E (X)


    = p 1 X 1 + p 2 X 2 + p 3 X 3 + p 4 X4 + … + p n X n

    9
    Q: A Petrol pump proprietor sells an average of
    Rs. 80,000 petrol on rainy days and an average
    of Rs. 95,000 on clear days. Statistics from the
    meteorological department show that the
    probability is 0.76 for clear weather and 0.24
    for raining weather on coming Monday. Find
    the expected value of petrol sale.

    10
    Solution:
    X1 = 80,000 p1 = 0.24
    X2 = 95,000 p2 = 0.76

    Also, p1 + p2 = 1

    E(X) = p1 X1 + p2 X2

    = Rs. 91, 400

    11
    Binomial Distribution - Discrete
     Conditions:
    a) Experiment need to be performed ‘n’ times
    under identical conditions ;
    b) There are only two possible outcomes – success
    & failure
    Or S = { success, failure}
    where p+q = 1;
    p: P(success) & q: P(failure)
    c) The trials are statistically independent
    12
     If X ~ P (n, p) ----- Binomial Distribution

    i.e, P ( getting r successes out of n trails)

    = P(X=r) = n Cr px (q)n-x

    Where r: 0, 1, 2, …n ;
    & p+q=1
    n: total no. of trials
    p: probability of success in a single trial

    13
    Also…
     More appropriate in the case of all
    distributions with sample size ≤ 30
    And p 0.5

    Mean (Expected Value) = np


    Std. Deviation = √npq

    14
    15

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