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    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

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    Zain Ashfaq
    This document provides an overview of key concepts in engineering statistics including: - The definition of complementary events and the theorem that the probabilities of an event and its complement sum to 1. - Examples of calculating conditional probabilities and using the product rule and sum rule. - The definition of independent events and examples to distinguish between independent and dependent events. - Homework problems are provided as examples to practice calculating probabilities of events, conditional probabilities, and determining if events are independent or dependent.

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    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

    Uploaded by

    Zain Ashfaq
    36 views16 pages
    This document provides an overview of key concepts in engineering statistics including: - The definition of complementary events and the theorem that the probabilities of an event and its complement sum to 1. - Examples of calculating conditional probabilities and using the product rule and sum rule. - The definition of independent events and examples to distinguish between independent and dependent events. - Homework problems are provided as examples to practice calculating probabilities of events, conditional probabilities, and determining if events are independent or dependent.

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    Lec#5

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    This document provides an overview of key concepts in engineering statistics including: - The definition of complementary events and the theorem that the probabilities of an event and its complement sum to 1. - Examples of calculating conditional probabilities and using the product rule and sum rule. - The definition of independent events and examples to distinguish between independent and dependent events. - Homework problems are provided as examples to practice calculating probabilities of events, conditional probabilities, and determining if events are independent or dependent.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    36 views16 pages

    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

    Uploaded by

    Zain Ashfaq
    This document provides an overview of key concepts in engineering statistics including: - The definition of complementary events and the theorem that the probabilities of an event and its complement sum to 1. - Examples of calculating conditional probabilities and using the product rule and sum rule. - The definition of independent events and examples to distinguish between independent and dependent events. - Homework problems are provided as examples to practice calculating probabilities of events, conditional probabilities, and determining if events are independent or dependent.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 16

    Engineering Statistics

    ES-202

    MS. SANA TAHIR


    @
    GIKI
    Theorem:
    If A and A’ are complementary events, then

    P(A) + P(A’) = 1.

    2
    Example:
    If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or
    8 or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24,
    0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on
    his next day at work?

    3
    Conditional Probability
    The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A
    has occurred is called a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A).

    “the probability that B occurs given that A occurs”

    “the probability of B, given A.”

    4
    Definition:
    The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B|A), is defined by
    P(B|A) =P(A ∩ B)/P(A), provided P(A) > 0.

    5
    Example:
    From a set of all families with two children. A family is selected at random and
    is found to have a girl. What is the probability that the other child is also a girl.

    6
    Example:
    The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83;
    the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it
    departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78.
    Find the probability that a plane
    (a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time,
    (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
    (c) the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on time.

    7
    Home task

    Rolling a six sided die once and find the probability of an event that the
    outcome is a perfect square, given that the outcomes are even.
    Ans: 1/3

    8
    Product Rule
    Theorem :
    If A and B are any events in S, then
    P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B).P(B), provided P(B)  0.
    P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A).P(A), provided P(A)  0.

    9
    Independent Event
    Now consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck. There
    are two ways to draw:
    A) Drawing cards with replacement (Independent Events)
    B) Drawing card without replacement (Dependent Events)

    10
    Definition:
    Two events A and B are independent if and only if
    P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) = P(A),
    assuming the existences of the conditional probabilities. Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

    11
    Theorem :
    Two events A and B are independent if and only if
    P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B).

    12
    Example:
    Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are
    selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first,
    what is the probability that both fuses are defective?

    13
    Home Task
    Example:
    One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3 white
    balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed in
    the second bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn from the second
    bag is black?
    Ans: 38/63
    .

    14
    Home Task
    Two items are selected randomly with replacement from a collection of 20
    items containing 15 good and 5 bad items.
    A) What is the probability that first item is bad?
    B) What is the probability that first item is bad given that second is good?
    C) What is the probability that second item is good?
    D) What is the probability that second item is good given that first is bad?
    Ans: A) ¼, B)1/4, C)3/4, D)3/4

    15
    Home task
    A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The
    probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability
    that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury
    resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance
    and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.
    Ans: 0.9016.

    16

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