Changes in the Atmospheric

Circulation as Indicator of
Climate Change
Written by: Thomas Reichler
Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah

Micaela Morán (00206278)

Introduction
● The strength, direction, and steadiness of the prevailing winds are crucial for climate.
● Winds associated with the atmospheric circulation lead to the transportation of heat and moisture
from remote areas and thereby modify the local characteristics of climate in important ways
● These changes are best described as poleward displacements of major wind and pressure systems
throughout the global 3D atmosphere
● The associated trends are important indicators of climate change and are likely to have profound
influences on ecosystems and societies.
 Introduction
● Tropical circulation change related to a
poleward expansion of the (MSS, 2020)

Hadley cell (HC)

Circulations of air at the tropics: rising air close
to the equator and sinking air at the subtropics
It extends through the entire depth of the
troposphere from the equator to the subtropics

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/
322886947_Transport_of_very_shortlived_substances_from_the_Indian_Ocean_to_the_stratosphere_through_the
_Asian_monsoon
Introduction
● Extratropical circulation change also known as an
enhanced positive phase of the annular modes (AMs)

- Hemispheric scale patterns of climate variability

- Northern annular mode (NAM) and a Southern annular
mode (SAM)

https://energyeducation.ca/
encyclopedia/
Northern_Annular_Mode
General Circulation of the Atmosphere
● It describes de global 3D structure of atmospheric winds

● The tropics absorb about twice the solar energy

that the higher latitudes absorb, creating a
meridional gradient in temperature and potential
energy

● The different forms of energy involved are

sensible heat, latent heat, potential energy, and
kinetic energy

● Typically, the energy transports are directed

against spatial gradients, thus reducing the
contrasts between geographical regions.
General Circulation of the Atmosphere
The distinction into tropical and extratropical regimes is
fundamental for the Earth atmosphere

Extratropics
• Large-scale motions are governed by quasi-
geostrophic theory
• Cyclones, which are also called storms,
eddies, or simply waves.

Tropics
• Coriolis force is weak
• Other effects such as friction, and diabatic
and latent heating become important
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2016/11/04/poles-apart/
 The Walker Circulation
● Another tropical circulation
system, representing east-west
oriented overturning of air
across the equatorial Pacific
● Driven by low pressure and
convection in the west, and high
pressure and subsidence in the
east
● Variations in these SSTs and the
Walker circulation are closely
related to the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)
phenomenon
 How does climate change impact the atmospheric circulation?

Alterations of the radiative balance of the Earth modify regional

temperature and humidity structures.
The winds respond to the resulting gradients and change the intensity
and structure of the circulation
THE POLEWARD EXPANSION
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION
The location of the poleward
These include the amount of outgoing
boundaries of the tropics are not
longwave radiation, the concentration in
defined in unique and commonly
stratospheric ozone, the height of the
accepted ways
thermally defined tropopause, the relative
humidity of the air, or the difference
The poleward extent of the tropics
between precipitation and evaporation at
depends on the definition of specific
the surface
indicators of tropical width.
Observation-Based Evidence

Excluding some of the outliers, the most likely consensus

estimate is, close to 1 latitude widening per decade over the
recent decades.
Model-Based Evidence
Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC-AR4)

Largest expansion amounts to 0.7 latitude

per decade over the last three decades,
which is consistent with the observations.
However, other models simulate much
smaller rates, and some even negative one
The Decreasing Intensity of
The Tropical Circulation
Increasing moisture holding capacity of air
Global warming weakens the in a warmer world, which is not followed by
strength of the mean tropical an equivalent intensification of the
circulation hydrological cycle

Long-term observations of sea level pressure over the tropical Pacific reveal a weakening of
the zonally asymmetric Walker circulation

Warming of SSTs seems to be mostly responsible for the weakening

 Emerging
Mechanisms
Understanding why the tropics are expanding under climate
change is an area of active research – 3 mechanisms have
been suggested
01 Tropical Tropopause Heights

Analysis of radiosonde and reanalysis data shows that the height of

the global tropopause has increased over the past decades, and
GCM experiments indicate that anthropogenic climate change is
likely responsible for this increase

The height of the tropopause is controlled by externally imposed

temperature changes above or below the tropopause

This not only affects the height of the tropopause but also the
meridional temperature gradients, the zonal winds, and the vertical
wind shear by way of the thermal wind relationship.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/atmosphere/troposphere
 02 Extratropical Eddies
The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind
structure in the region of the subtropical upper troposphere and
lower stratosphere (UTLS)

At intermediate heights of the UTLS region (12–16 km) the tropics

warm and the extratropics cool, leading to an increase in meridional
temperature gradients, and, by the thermal wind relationship, to an
increase of zonal wind speeds above.

Climate change related increases in UTLS winds increase the speed

of the waves
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/what-happens-when-ocean-eddies-hit-a-wall
 03 Static Stability

Changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere are related to the vertical non-uniformity
of the tropospheric global warming signal

The global warming signal in the upper troposphere is stronger than in the lower troposphere and it
maximizes in the tropical upper troposphere

Global warming related increases in static stability postpone the point where the atmosphere becomes
baroclinically unstable. Consequently, the HC expands towards higher latitudes.
Connection To Extratropical Circulation Change
The AMs have exhibited positive trends in Stratospheric climate change also seems to be
both hemispheres in recent decades connected to the widening of the circulation.

Climate change simulations suggest that these Increases in greenhouse gases and ozone
trends are caused by increases in greenhouse depleting substances over the past have led to
gases and stratospheric ozone depletion a substantial cooling of the stratosphere,
especially over higher latitudes

The resulting changes in zonal wind structure and subsequent dynamical interaction
between the stratosphere and troposphere may influence tropospheric climate
 Conclusions
• There exists considerable scientific evidence that key-elements of the atmospheric circulation have been moving poleward
during the last few decades

• Current theories as well as model experiments indicate that human activity in association with greenhouse gas increases and
stratospheric ozone depletion is the most likely cause for the trends

• Natural climate variability also plays an important role, and there are many other aspects of these shifts that are not well
understood.

• There has been a marked improvement in our theoretical understanding of the circulation change. Three important mechanisms
have been presented in this review, but it is still unclear which, if any, is correct.

• Small shifts in the location of the HC, jets, and stormtracks can have important implications for regional climates by modifying
patterns of storminess, temperature, and precipitation.

• The atmospheric general circulation for climate, any change in its structure may lead to profound changes in other parts of the
global climate system with potentially important implications for natural ecosystems and human societies.
 References
MSS. (2020). Learn | Tropical Circulation. Retrieved from http://www.weather.gov.sg/learn_tropical/

Reichler, T. (2009). Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation as Indicator of Climate Change. In Climate
Change: Observed impacts on Planet Earth. The Netherlands: Elsevier.

Thompson, D. (2010). A Brief Introduction to the Annular Modes and Annular Mode Research. Retrieved
from https://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet/ao/introduction.html