Concept of

Probability
Dr. Dauda Saheed Olaide
Consultant Public Health
Physician
Department of Community
Health, OAUTHC
 Outline
■Introduction
■Definitions of terms
■Types of Probability
■Probability rules
■Application of Probability
■Conclusion
 Introduction
■Probability is a quantitative expression of
the likelihood/chance of occurrence of an
event
■One of the basic tools of statistics
■Serves as a means of translating observed
data into decisions
■Probability is expressed in decimal,
percentage, or a fraction and it cannot be
a negative value
■Used for diagnosis after clerking;
prognosis after tx; external validity of
 Definition of Terms (1)
■Experiment : trial or action that produce
specific outcome
■Outcome: result of a particular trial
■Sample space: a set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment
■Event;: a subset of the sample space
which may consist of one or more
outcomes
 Definition of Terms (2)
■Equally likely Events : The results
of a sample space are called equally
likely if all of them have the same
probability of occurring.
■Complementary Events: occur
when there are just two events, and
one event is exactly opposite to the
other event. E.g. In an examination,
the event of success and the event of
failure are complementary events.
 Definition of Terms (3)
■Mutually Exclusive Events: Two
events such that the happening of
one event prevents the happening of
another event are referred to as
mutually exclusive events. In other
words, two events cannot occur at
the same time if they are mutually
exclusive. E.g: Tossing a coin can
result in either heads or tails, but
both cannot be seen at the same
 Definition of Terms (4)
■Independent events: occurrence of
one event is not affected by other
event. Eg flipping of a coin
■Dependent events/conditional:
occurrence of one event is affected
by other events e.g. picking without
replacement
 Types of Probability
■Classical/Theoretical prob.
■Empirical/ Experiment/Frequency
prob.
■Subjective prob.
 Classical/Theoretical/a
priori probability. (1)
■Developed from gambling (game of
chance)
■It is based on what is expected to
happen in an experiment without
conducting it.
■It is the ratio of the number of
favourable outcomes to the total
number of outcomes.
■Pr(E)= no of outcomes favourable
to an event (E)/total no of possible
 Classical/Theoretical/a
priori probability. (2)
■Used all possible outcomes are
equally likely (EQUAL CHANCES OF
OCCURRENCE) and mutually
exclusive (CANNOT OCCUR AT THE
SAME TIME)
■This perspective has the advantage
that it is conceptually simple for
many situations.
 Classical/Theoretical/a
priori probability. (3)
■However, it is limited, since many
situations do not have finitely many
Equally Likely Outcomes. E.g.
Tossing a weighted die where we
have finitely many outcomes, but
they are not equally likely.
■Only confined with the coins, dice,
cards, etc.;
 Empirical/
Experimental/A
posteriori/RF (1)
■Based on observations of event
obtained from a series of
experiments
■Therefore, it is based on the data
which is obtained after an
experiment is carried out.
■ It is the ratio of the number of times
an event occurs to the total number
of experiments that are conducted
■Pr (E) = freq of events/Total freq of
 Empirical/
Experimental/A
posteriori/RF (2)
■For example, if a coin is tossed 10
times and heads is recorded 6 times
then, the experimental probability
for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5
■It is a relative concept
■It provides a direct guide for
probability calculation
 Empirical/
Experimental/A
posteriori/RF (3)
■As an experiment is repeated over
and over, the empirical probability of
an event approaches the theoretical
(actual) probability of the event.
■Can be used even if each outcome of
an event is not equally likely to
occur. e.g weighted die
 Empirical/
Experimental/A
posteriori/RF (4)
■Suppose that we have a die which
we are told is weighted, but we don't
know how it is weighted. We could
get a rough idea of the probability of
each outcome by tossing the die a
large number of times and using the
proportion of times that the die gives
that outcome to estimate the
probability of that outcome.
 Empirical/
Experimental/A
posteriori/RF (5)
■Shortfalls: In some cases, the
experiment could never in practice
be carried out more than once
■A second disadvantage of the
empirical perspective is that it
leaves open the question of how
large n has to be before we get a
good approximation.
 Subjective Probability

■Based on individual’s own belief that an

event will occur
■Not measurable objectively
■Calc. based on personal experience
RULES OF PROBABILITY

between 0 and 1. 0⩽P(A)⩽1 and can

■The probability value always lies

not be negative
■The sum of the probabilities of all
possible outcomes of an experiment
is equal to
P(A1)+P(A2)+P(A3)…..P(An)=1.
■Addition rule: For Mutually
Exclusive events; P(A ∪ B) = P(A) +
P(B)
Mutually exclusive where Pr
(A and B)=0
■A B
 Events not mutually
exclusive Pr (_A or
B)=Pr(A)+ Pr(B)-Pr (A and
■A B) B
■Multiplication rules: For
independent events,
■the probability that two events A
and B will occur in sequence P(A∩B)
= P(A) * P(B)
■For dependent events, the
probability that two events A and B
will occur in sequence P(A∩B) =
P(A) * P(B/A)
■The sum of probability of an event
 APPLICATION
■Used for risk assessment
■Predict outcome of a treatment or
disease prognosis
■Weather forecasting
■Predicting a winning team
■Chances of getting the hike of share
prices in share market
 Conclusion
■Probability is the basis of so many of
our actions in health care as a
whole and public health in particular
■Its place can therefore not be
overemphasized especially in
making our inferences
■From as simple as relative freqs
probabilities are present and can say
so much…..
■Thanks for your audience
■CO
 SAMPLING
TECHNNIQUE –
NON
PROBABILITY
Dr. Daud Saheed Olaide
Outline
 Introduction
■Sampling is the process of selecting
a number of study units from a
defined population or selection of a
part of a population for a study
■A sample is a selected part of a
population.
■It is a smaller representation of a
larger whole or universe taking
when a large proportion of
individuals, items or units are to be
REFERENCE
■Other reasons for taking a sample
are
o It is time saving
o It is less expensive
o More convenient
o It requires less personnel
o Accurate data more likely
o A smaller scope gives room for a more
detailed study
■Disadvantages of sampling
⮚ Biased selection may result from faulty
method of sampling
⮚ Inaccurate results from non
representative sample
⮚ High knowledge and skill required in
sampling techniques, analysis and error
calculation
■Principles for sample selection
⮚ Representative
⮚ Adequate size: for reliability
⮚ Homogeneity: between sample and
population
⮚ Independent selection
⮚ Lack of bias: by random or probability
selection
⮚ Complete and accurate
⮚ Simple enough to carry out in practice
 Sampling techniques
■Sampling is done using the following
methods;
-Non-Probability sampling
methods.
-Probability sampling methods1
■Probability sampling methods - is
the selection of sample that is based
on probability or chance
■ Also known as random sampling
technique
■Examples are -
- Simple random sampling
- Systemic sampling method
- Cluster sampling method
- Multi-stage sampling
- Stratified sampling
- Panel sampling
■Non-Probability sampling methods -
is the selection of sample that is not
based on probability or chance
■Examples are
-Haphazard (convince or
accidental) sampling
-Purposive sampling
-Quota sampling
-Snowball sampling1
-
 Other Definitions
■Population is the totality of all
available units in a defined area that
falls within the interest of a study
investigator.
■Target population – population to
which the researcher would like to
generalize his results.
■Sampling frame - the list of the
population from which the sample is
drawn
 Haphazard Sampling
■Also known as convenience or grab
or availability sampling
■Is an accidental type of sampling as
subjects are selected because they
are available and accessible
■Most common research sampling
method
■May be used in exploratory surveys
■Also in focus group discussions for
participants selection
 Merits and Demerits of
Haphazard Sampling
■MERITS.
✔It is extremely speedy, easy, readily
available, and ineffective sampling
technique, causing it to be an
attractive option to most researchers
✔It can be used by almost anyone
■DEMERITS.
✔Results of the convenience sampling
cannot be generalized to the target
population because it is
unrepresentativeness of the study
population.
✔Prone to several forms of bias,
including selection bias, researcher
bias, and sampling bias.
✔Convenience sampling often leads to
✔ to replicate the results of
convenience samples.
✔Exclude several subgroups from the
research sample.
✔It is characterized with insufficient
power to identify differences of
population subgroups
✔Of limited use
Indication
✔When dealing with a large sample
size within a limited timeframe
✔Pilot testing and hypothesis
generation
✔If the population of interest is large,
with numerous clusters or strata.
■Examples:
✔To determine peoples opinion about
who will win the next governorship
election in Osun State
✔To determine the view of OAU
students about the demand of
selecting an Ife indigenous Prof as
the next VC of OAU
✔To assess the patients’ opinion about
the quality of healthcare service
 Purposive Sampling
■It is a sampling method in which the
researcher selects sample based on
a purpose or his judgement or belief
or knowledge
■Example
✔In exploring reasons for poor uptake
of childhood immunization in Ife
■In exploring reasons for poor uptake
of family planning in Ife
■Example
✔In exploring reasons for poor uptake
of childhood immunization in Ife
■MERITS.
It ensures balance of group sizes
when multiple groups are to be
selected.
■DEMERITS.
Samples are not easily defensible as
being the representative of the
populations due to potential
subjectivity of the researcher
 Quota Sampling
■This is the non-probability sampling
equivalent of stratified sampling, in
which the researcher first identifies
the strata (diff categories) and their
proportion as they are represented
in the population
■Then convenience or judgment
sampling is used to select the
required number of subjects from
each stratum
■Merits
It select individual as they come to fill
a quota by characteristics proportion
to the population.
It ensures selection of adequate
numbers of subjects with
appropriate characteristics
■Demerit
It is not possible to prove that the
sample is a representative of the
■Example
✔A study of students’ satisfaction with
on-campus housing. Perhaps there
are two types of housing on your
campus: apartments that include full
kitchens and dorm rooms where
residents do not cook for themselves
and instead eat in a dorm cafeteria.
As a researcher, you might wish to
understand how satisfaction varies
across these two types of housing
arrangements. Perhaps you have the
time and resources to interview 20
 Snowballing
■Also known as chain referral
sampling
■Snowball sampling is based on
referral from initial subjects to
generate additional subjects.
■Initial respondents that are chosen at
random provide names of additional
respondents to be include in a sample
(via referral)
■Used when potential respondents are
■Example-a researcher interested in
studying how people with genital
herpes/HIV cope with their medical
condition
■Here, the investigator select the first
set of individuals who met his
criteria, they are then required to
assist in identifying other individuals
with the same characteristics. The
process is repeated with each new