Software Project Management

UNIT - 3

Dr S Jayanthi
 Activity Planning and Risk Management
o Objectives of Activity planning
o Project schedules, Activities,
o Sequencing and scheduling
o Network Planning models
o Formulating Network Model
o Forward Pass and Backward Pass techniques
o Critical path (CRM) method
o Risk identification – Assessment
o Risk Planning
o Risk Management – PERT technique – Monte Carlo simulation
o Resource Allocation – Creation of critical paths – Cost schedules.
 Activity Planning and Risk Management

At the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

oproduce an activity plan for a project;
oestimate the overall duration of a project;
ocreate a critical path and a precedence network for a project
 Scheduling
• A detailed plan for the project, however, must also include a schedule indicating
the start and completion times for each activity.
• This will enable us to:
• Ensure that the appropriate resources will be available precisely when
required;
• Avoid different activities competing for the same resources at the same time;
• Produce a detailed schedule. Showing which staff carry out each activity;
• Produce a detailed plan against which actual achievement may be measured;
• Produce a timed cash flow forecast to manage project finances effectively.
• Re-plan the project during its life to correct drift from the target.
 Scheduling
Handling Deviations:
oProject management involves identifying problems, understanding their causes, and
adjusting the plan to mitigate their effects.
Evaluating and Modifying Plans:
oThe activity plan should provide ways to evaluate the impact of missing target dates
and guidance for modifying the plan to keep the project on track.
Prioritizing Monitoring:
oThe plan should highlight which components of the project require the most
attention for monitoring.
 The Objectives of Activity Planning
 Providing project and resource schedules
Feasibility assessment:
o Determines if the project can be completed within required timeframes and resource constraints.
o Detailed planning helps assess if a project is achievable by analyzing the timeline, available staff, and
parallel activities.
Resource allocation:
o Identifies the most efficient way to allocate resources and when they should be available.
o Highlights the relationship between adding resources and shortening project duration, as well as the impact
of additional spending.
Detailed costing:
o Provides accurate estimates of project costs and their timing based on the detailed activity plan and resource
allocation.
Motivation:
o Setting clear targets and monitoring progress boosts staff motivation, especially when they are involved in
target-setting.
Coordination
oEnsures proper communication and coordination among different teams or departments.
oIntegrated schedules help manage resource transfers between teams and prevent idle time, especially in large
projects.
 When to Plan
o Planning is an ongoing process of refinement, each iteration becoming more
detailed and more accurate than the last.
o Over successive iterations, the emphasis and purpose of planning will shift.
o During the feasibility study and project start-up, the main purpose of planning will
be to estimate timescales and the risks of not achieving target completion dates or
keeping within budget.
o As the project proceeds beyond the feasibility study, the emphasis will be placed
upon the production of activity plans for ensuring resource availability and cash
flow control.
o Throughout the project, until the final deliverable has reached the customer,
monitoring and replanning must continue to correct any drift that might prevent
meeting time or cost targets
 Projects and Activities
Defining activities
● A project is composed of a number of interrelated activities.
● A project may start when at least one of its activities is ready to start.
● A project will be completed when all of the activities it encompasses have been
completed.
● An activity must have a clearly defined start and a clearly defined end-point,
normally marked by the production of a tangible deliverable.
● If an activity requires a resource (as most do) then that resource requirement must be
forecastable.
● The duration of an activity must be forecastable, and the reasonable availability of
resources.
● Some activities might require that others are completed before they can begin (these are
known as precedence requirements)
 Identifying Activities
• There are three approaches to identifying the activities or tasks
• The activity-based approach.
• The product-based approach.
• The hybrid approach.
• The activity-based approach:
• The activity-based approach consists of creating a list of all the activities that the
project is thought to involve.
• Create a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). This involves identifying the main
(or high-level) tasks required to complete a project and then breaking each of
these down into a set of lower-level tasks
Step 1: Identify the major activities of the project.
Step 2: Identify the sub-activities of the major activities.
Step 3: Repeat till undividable, simple, and independent
activities are created.
Figure shows a fragment of a WBS where the design task has been broken
down into three tasks and one of these has been further decomposed into two
tasks.
 Identifying activities
Product-based approach
It consists of producing a Product Breakdown Structure and a Product Flow Diagram.
The PFD indicates, for each product, which other products are required as inputs. The
PFD can therefore be easily transformed into an ordered list of activities by identifying
the transformations that turn some products into others
o list the deliverable and intermediate products of project – product
breakdown structure (PBS)
o Identify the order in which products have to be created
o Work out the activities needed to create the products
 A fragment of a Product Breakdown Structure for a system development task

A product breakdown structure (PBS) is a hierarchical diagram that helps

project teams organize and communicate the deliverables of a project
A PBS can help project teams:
oThink about what other products are needed to build the final product
oClarify all necessary work for the creation of the final product
oEnhance communication among stakeholders
oIntroduce transparency into the project
USDP product breakdown structure based on artefacts identified in Jacobson,
Booch and Rumbaugh
 Hybrid approach
o The hybrid WBS approach combines both the deliverable-based
structure (what needs to be delivered) with the activity-based structure
(what tasks need to be done to create those deliverables).
o This method allows for clear tracking of both what the project needs to
produce and how it will be done.
 Hybrid approach
Deliverables

Activities /
Tasks
A Work Breakdown Structure based on deliverables
 The final outcome of the planning process
A project plan as a bar chart (schedule) that clearly indicates when each
of the project's activities is planned to occur and what resources it will
need.

o Task dependencies.
o Resource allocation (who
is doing what and when).
o The expected start and
end dates for each task.
o Parallel Task Execution
 Network Planning Models
• These project scheduling techniques model the project's activities and
their relationships as a network. In the network, time flows from left to
right
• the two best known being CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT
(Program Evaluation Review Technique).
 Network Planning Models
Activity-On-Arrow [1/2]

o Used by CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Program

Evaluation Review Technique) to visualize the project as a
network
o Activities are drawn as arrow joining circles, or nodes, which
represent the possible start and/or completion of an activity or set
of activities
 Network Planning Models
Activity-On-Arrow [1/2]

o Project activity network fragment represented as a CPM network

 Network Planning Models
Activity-On-Node [1/2]
o Used by precedence networks
o Has become popular
o Widely adopted
o Activities are represented as nodes
o The links between nodes represent precedence (or sequencing) requirements
 Network Planning Models
Activity-On-Node [1/2]
o Fragment of a network developed as an activity-on-node network
 Formulating A Network Model
Constructing Precedence Network Rules
o A project network should have only one start node
o More than one activity starting at once? Invent a ‘start’ activity with zero
duration
o A project network should have only one end node
o If necessary, invent an ‘end’ activity
o A node has duration
o Links normally have no duration
o Precedents are the immediate preceding activities
o All have to be completed before an activity can be started
o Time moves from left to right
o A network may not contain loops
o A network should not contain dangles
o If necessary, connect to the final node
 Formulating A Network Model
Fragment of Precedence Network

o Installation cannot start until program testing is completed

o Program test cannot start until both code and data take-on have been completed
 Formulating A Network Model
Network Contains Loop

o A loop is an error in that it represents a situation that cannot occur in

practice
o Program testing cannot start until errors have been corrected?
 Formulating A Network Model
A Dangle

o A dangling activity such as “write user manual” should not exist as it

is likely to lead to errors in subsequent analysis
 Formulating A Network Model
Resolving The Dangle

• The figure implies that the project is complete once the software
has been installed and the user manual written
• We should redraw the network with a final completion activity
 Lagged activities
• Where activities can occur in parallel with a time lag between them, we represent the lag
with a duration on the linking arrow as shown in Figure 6.13.
• This indicates that documenting amendments can start one day after the start of prototype
testing and will be completed two days after prototype testing is completed
 Formulating A Network Model
Labelling Convention

o There are a number of differing conventions that have been adopted

o Example
 Start and finish times
Latest
Earliest start finish
activity

Latest start Earliest finish

• Earliest start (ES)

• Earliest finish (EF) = ES + duration
• Latest finish (LF) = latest task can be completed without
affecting project end Latest start = LF - duration
 Adding The Time Dimension

• The critical path approach - two primary objectives:

o planning the project in such a way that it is completed as quickly as
possible; and
o identifying those activities where a delay in their execution is likely to
affect the overall end date of the project or later activities' start dates.
oThe method requires the estimation of duration of each activity
o Forward pass: calculate the earliest dates at which activities may
commence and the project completed
o Backward pass: calculate the latest start dates for activities and the
critical path
 Adding The Time Dimension
Example of Estimated Activity Duration of A Project

Activity Duration (weeks) Precedents

A Hardware selection 6
B Software design 4
C Install hardware 3 A
D Code & test software 4 B
E File take-on 3 B
F Write user manuals 10
G User training 3 E, F
H Install & test system 2 C,D
Adding The Time Dimension Activity

A: Hardware selection
Duration
(weeks)
6
Precedents

The Precedence Network of The Example Project B: System configuration 4 -

C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office
3 B
procedures
F: Recruit staff 10 -
G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
The Forward Pass - The Calculation of Earliest Start Date
o Activity A: Since there are no preceding activities, A can start o Activity D: Activity D depends on Activity B.
immediately at time zero. Thus, the earliest start time is: Therefore, D’s earliest start is the finish time of B:
o ES(A) = 0 o ES(D) = EF(B) = 4
o Given that Activity A takes 6 weeks to complete, the earliest o With a duration of 4 weeks, the earliest finish time is:
finish time is: o EF(D) = ES(D) + Duration = 4 + 4 = 8
o EF(A) = ES(A) + Duration = 0 + 6 = 6 o Activity E: Similarly, E starts once Activity B is
o Activity B: Similar to Activity A, B can also start immediately at completed:
time zero: o ES(E) = EF(B) = 4
o ES(B) = 0 o E takes 3 weeks, so the earliest finish time is:
o Since B takes 4 weeks to complete, the earliest finish time is: o EF(E) = ES(E) + Duration = 4 + 3 = 7
o EF(B) = ES(B) + Duration = 0 + 4 = 4 o Activity G: G can only begin after both E and F are
o Activity F: Activity F, like A and B, has no predecessor, so it can finished. Since the latest of these finish times is the
start at time zero: determining factor, we take the maximum of the two:
o ES(F) = 0 o ES(G) = MAX(EF(E), EF(F)) = MAX(7, 10) = 10
o As F takes 10 weeks, the earliest finish is: o G requires 3 weeks, so the earliest finish time is:
o EF(F) = ES(F) + Duration = 0 + 10 = 10 o EF(G) = ES(G) + Duration = 10 + 3 = 13
o Activity C: Activity C can only begin after the completion of o Activity H: H starts after both C and D are completed.
Activity A. Therefore, the earliest start time is the finish time of Using the maximum of their finish times:
A: o ES(H) = MAX(EF(C), EF(D)) = MAX(9, 8) = 9
o ES(C) = EF(A) = 6 o Since H takes 2 weeks, the earliest finish time is:
o C takes 3 weeks, so the earliest finish is: o EF(H) = ES(H) + Duration = 9 + 2 = 11
o EF(C) = ES(C) + Duration = 6 + 3 = 9
The Forward Pass Activity
Duration
Precedents
(weeks)
A: Hardware selection 6 -
Earliest finish (EF) = ES + duration B: System configuration 4 -
C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office
3 B
procedures
F: Recruit staff 10 -
G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
 The Forward Pass
The Calculation of Earliest Start Date [2/4]
Earliest finish (EF) = ES + duration
The Forward Pass
Earliest finish (EF) = ES + duration

)
X(9 , 8
MA

1 0)
X(7 ,
MA
The Forward Pass
The Calculation of Earliest Start Date [4/4]
o The project will be complete when both activities H and G have been completed
o The earliest project completion date will be the later of weeks 11 and 13 – that is, week 13
The Forward Pass
The Network After The Forward Pass
Backward Pass in Critical Path Method (CPM)
The backward pass is used to calculate the latest start (LS) and latest finish (LF)
times for each activity in a project. This helps determine how late an activity can start
or finish without delaying the overall project.

Assumption: Latest finish date = Earliest Finish date (of project).

 •Activity E:
•Activity G: •The latest finish for E is determined by G’s start, meaning LF(E)
•The latest finish date is determined by the finish of the = LS(G) = 10.
project, which is LF(G) = 13. •Since E takes 3 weeks, it must start no later than:
•Since G takes 3 weeks, the latest it can start is: •LS(E) = LF(E) - Duration = 10 - 3 = 7
•LS(G) = LF(G) - Duration = 13 - 3 = 10 •Activity F:
•Activity H: •F's latest finish is tied to G’s start, so LF(F) = LS(G) = 10.
•The latest finish date is also based on the project finish, so •F takes 10 weeks to complete, so the latest start time is:
LF(H) = 13. •LS(F) = LF(F) - Duration = 10 - 10 = 0
•H takes 2 weeks, meaning it must start by: •Activity A:
•LS(H) = LF(H) - Duration = 13 - 2 = 11 •The latest finish for A is based on C’s start time, meaning LF(A)
•Activity C: = LS(C) = 8.
•The latest finish for C is the latest start of H, which is •As A takes 6 weeks, the latest start time is:
LF(C) = LS(H) = 11. •LS(A) = LF(A) - Duration = 8 - 6 = 2
•Since C takes 3 weeks, the latest it can start is: •Activity B:
•LS(C) = LF(C) - Duration = 11 - 3 = 8 •B’s latest finish is determined by the earliest of the latest start
•Activity D: times of D and E. Hence, LF(B) = min(LS(D), LS(E)) = min(7,
•The latest finish for D is also determined by H's start time, 7) = 7.
so LF(D) = LS(H) = 11. •B takes 4 weeks, so the latest start time is:
•D takes 4 weeks, so the latest it can start is: •LS(B) = LF(B) - Duration = 7 - 4 = 3
•LS(D) = LF(D) - Duration = 11 - 4 = 7
Identifying The Critical Path
The Critical Path [1/3]
• Critical path: One path through the network that defines the duration
of the project
• Any delay to any activity of this critical path will delay the completion
of the project
The Backward Pass Assumption: Latest finish date = Earliest Finish date (of project).
The Latest Activity Dates Calculation [1/3]

Latest start = LF - duration

The Backward Pass Assumption: Latest finish date = Earliest Finish date (of project).
The Latest Activity Dates Calculation [2/3]

Latest start = LF - duration

The Backward Pass Assumption: Latest finish date = Earliest Finish date (of project).
The Latest Activity Dates Calculation [1/3]

Latest start = LF - duration

Identifying The Critical Path
Identifying Critical Path: The critical path is the path that gives us or helps us
estimate the earliest time in which the whole project can be completed. Any delay to an
activity on this critical path will lead to a delay in the completion of the entire project.

To identify the critical path, we need to calculate the activity float for each
activity.
If the float of an activity is zero, then the activity is critical and must be added to the
critical path of the project network.
In this example, activities F and G have zero float and hence, are critical activities.
• Activity’s float: the difference between an activity’s earliest start date and its latest
start date (or, equally, the difference between its earliest and latest finish dates)
• and it indicates how much the activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the
entire project
• Activity span: the difference between the earliest start date and the latest finish
date
• Measure of maximum time allowable for the activity
Identifying The Critical Path
The Critical Path [3/3] Float = ES-LS
(or)
Float = EF-LF
6.12 Identifying The Critical Path
The Significance of The Critical Path
• In managing the project, we must pay particular attention to
monitoring activities on the critical path
• The effects on any delay or resources unavailability are detected and corrected
at the earliest opportunity
• In planning project, it is the critical path that we must shorten if we are
to reduce the overall duration of the project
6.13 Activity Float
Other Measures of Activity Float
• Free float: the time by which an activity may be delayed without
affecting subsequent activity
• The difference between the earliest completion for the activity and the earliest
date of the succeeding activity
• Interfering float: the difference between total float and free float
• Tells us how much the activity may be delayed without delaying project end
date
Shortening The Project Duration

• Reduce activity duration

• Applying more resources to the task
• Working overtime
• Procuring additional staff
• The critical path indicates where we must look to save time
• From previous example, we can complete the project in week 12 by reducing
the duration of activity F by one week
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
• Originally used by CPM and PERT methods
• Now less common than activity-on-node, still used and introduces an
additional useful concept – that of events
• Activities are represented by links (or arrows) and the nodes represent
events
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
Activity-On-Arrow Network of the Example Project

Duration
Activity Precedents
(weeks)
A: Hardware selection 6 -
B: System configuration 4 -
C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office procedures 3 B
F: Recruit staff 10 -
G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
Activity Labelling
• Typically the diagram is used to record information about the events
rather than activities
• One of the more common is to divide the node circle in quadrants
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
Network Analysis
• Analysis proceeds in the same way as with activity-on-node networks
• The discussion places emphasis on the events rather than activity start and
completion time
• Stages
• The forward pass
• The backward pass
• Identifying the critical path
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Forward Pass [1/4]
• Activities A, B and F may start immediately
• The earliest date for event 1 is zero
• The earliest start date for these three activities is also zero
• Activity A will take 6 weeks
• The earliest it can finish is week 6 Activity
Duration
Precedents
• The earliest we can achieve event 2 is week 4 (weeks)
A: Hardware selection 6 -
B: System configuration 4 -
C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office procedures 3 B
F: Recruit staff 10 -
G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Forward Pass [2/4]
• Activity B will take 4 weeks
• The earliest it can finish and the earliest we can achieve event 3 is week 4
• Activity F will take 10 weeks
• The earliest it can finish is week 10
• We cannot tell whether or not this is also the earliest date that we can achieve event 5 since we have not,
as yet, calculated when activity E will finish
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Forward Pass [3/4]
• Activity E can start as early as week 4 (the earliest date for event 3)
• It is forecasted to take 3 weeks, it will be completed, at the earliest, at the end of week 7
• Event 5 may be achieved when both E and F have been completed, that is week 10 (the later of 7
and 10)
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Forward Pass [4/4]
• Similarly, we can reason that event 4 will have an earliest date of week 9
• The later of the earliest finish for activity D (week 8) and the earliest finish for activity C (week 9)
• The earliest date for the completion of the project, event 6, is therefore the end of week 13
• The later of 11 (the earliest finish for H) and 13 (the earliest finish for G)
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The CPM Network After The Forward Pass
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Activity Table After The Forward Pass
Activity Duration Earliest start Latest start Earliest finish Latest finish Total float
(week) date date date date

A 6 0 6

B 4 0 4

C 3 6 9

D 4 4 8

E 3 4 7

F 10 0 10

G 3 10 13

H 2 9 11
Activity Duration Earliest start Latest start Earliest finish Latest finish Total float
(week) date date date date
A 6 0 6
B 4 0 4
C 3 6 9
D 4 4 8
E 3 4 7
F 10 0 10
G 3 10 13
H 2 9 11
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Backward Pass

• Calculate the latest date at which each event may be achieved, each
activity started and finished, without delaying the end of the project
• The latest date for an event is the latest date by which all immediately
following activities must be started for the project to be completed on
time
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The CPM Network After the Backward Pass
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Activity Table After the Backward Pass
Activity Duration Earliest start Latest start Earliest finish Latest finish Total float
(week) date date date date

A 6 0 2 6 8

B 4 0 3 4 7

C 3 6 8 9 11

D 4 4 7 8 11

E 3 4 7 7 10

F 10 0 0 10 10

G 3 10 10 13 13

H 2 9 11 11 13
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
Identifying The Critical Path
• The critical path is identified in a way similar to that used in activity-
on-node networks
• A different concept is used: slack
• A slack is the difference between the earliest date and the latest date
for an event
• It is a measure of how late an event may be
Activity-On-Arrow Networks
The Critical Path

• The critical path is the path joining all nodes with a zero slack
• Activity plan tells us the order in which we should execute activities
and the earliest and latest we can start and finish them
• The critical path method and precedence networks can be used to
obtain an ideal activity plan
Conclusion
• The critical path method and precedence networks techniques helps us
to identify which activities are critical to meeting a target completion
date
• In order to manage the project we need to turn the activity plan into
schedule that will specify precisely when each activity is scheduled to
start and finish
Conclusion
• Before we can do scheduling, we must consider what resources will be
required and whether or not they will be available at appropriate times
• The allocation of resources to an activity may be affected by how we
view the importance of the task and the risks associated with it
 PERT Technique
• Used to evaluate the effects of uncertainty
• CPM & PERT are similar
• CPM requires Single Estimate
• PERT requires Three Estimates
 PERT Three Estimates
Most Likely Time
oThe time we would expect the task to take under normal
circumstances. “ m”
Optimistic Time
oShortest time in which we could expect to complete the activity,
barring the miracles. “a”
Pessimistic Time
oWorst Possible time. “b”
Target
Event No
Date
Expected Standard
Date Deviation
Expected Duration
Reference
Expected Duration te = = ( a+4m+b ) / 6

Given PERT Activity Time Estimates

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

Activity
(a) (m) (b)
A 5 6 8
B 3 4 5
C 2 3 3
D 3.5 4 5
E 1 3 4
F 8 10 15
G 2 3 4
H 2 2 2.5
Expected Duration te = = ( a+4m+b ) / 6
PERT Activity Time Estimates

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected

Activity
(a) (m) (b) Duration (te)
A 5 6 8 6.17 Te= ( 5+4*6+8 ) / 6
B 3 4 5 4.00 Te= ( 3+4*4+5 ) / 6
C 2 3 3 2.83 Te= ( 2+4*3+3 ) / 6
D 3.5 4 5 Te= ( 3.5+4*4+5 ) / 6
4.08
E 1 3 4 2.83 Te= ( 1+4*3+4 ) / 6
F 8 10 15 10.50 Te= ( 8+4*10+15 ) / 6
G 2 3 4 3.00 Te= ( 2+4*3+4 ) / 6
H 2 2 2.5 2.08 Te= ( 2+4*2+2.5 ) / 6
 Using Expected Durations

o The expected durations are used to carry out a forward pass through
a network, using the same method as the CPM technique.
o In this case, however, the calculated event dates are not the earliest
possible dates but the dates by which we expect to achieve those
events.
 Duration
Activity Precedents
(weeks)
A: Hardware selection 6 -
B: System configuration 4 -
C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office procedures 3 B
F: Recruit staff 10 -
G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
 Duration
Activity Precedents
(weeks)
A: Hardware selection 6 -
B: System configuration 4 -
C: Install hardware 3 A
D: Data migration 4 B
E: Draft office procedures 3 B
F: Recruit staff 10 -
C G: User training 3 E, F
H: Install and test system 2 C, D
A
B D H

F G Target
Event No
Date
Expected Standard
Date Deviation
 Optimistic Most Pessimistic Expected
Activity
(a) Likely (m) (b) (te)
PERT Network after the Forward Pass A 5 6 8 6.17

o Unlike the CPM approach, the PERT method does not indicateBthe 3 4 5 4.00
C 2 3 3 2.83
earliest date by which we could complete the project but the
D 3.5 4 5 4.08
expected date.
E 1 3 4 2.83
o An advantage of this approach is that it places an emphasis on the
F 8 10 15 10.50
uncertainty of the real world
G 2 3 4 3.00
H 2 2 2.5 2.08
C
A 2 t=2.83
6. 17 6.17 Max(9, 8.08)
t=
B D H
1 t=4.00 3 t=4.08 4 t=2.08 6
0 4
E 9 13.5
t =2
.83 Max(13.50, 11. 08)
F G
t=10.50 5 t=3.00 Target
Event No
10.5 Date
Expected Standard
Max(6.83,
Date Deviation
10.50)
Activity standard deviations

A quantitative measure of the degree of uncertainty of an activity duration

estimate may be obtained by calculating the standard deviation s of an
activity time, using the formula
Activity standard deviations

Calculate The activity standard deviation for each activity in the table

Activit Optimistic Most Pessimistic Expected Standard

y (a) Likely (m) (b) (te) Deviation (s)
A 5 6 8 6.17 0.50 s=(8−5​)/6=3/6​=0.50
B 3 4 5 4.00 0.33 s=(5−3​)/6=2/6​=0.33
C 2 3 3 2.83 0.17 s=(3−2)/6​=1/6​=0.17
D 3.5 4 5 4.08 0.25 s=(5−3.5)/6​=(1.5)/6​=0.25
E 1 3 4 2.83 0.50 s=(4−1)/6​=3/6​=0.50
F 8 10 15 10.50 1.17 s=(15−8​)/6=7/6​≈1.17
G 2 3 4 3.00 0.33 s=(4−2)/6​=2/6​=0.33
H 2 2 2.5 2.08 0.08 s=(2.5−2)/6​=0.5/6​=0.08
 Standard
Optimistic Most Pessimis Expect
PERT Network with Standard Deviation Activity
(a) Likely (m) tic (b) ed (te)
Deviation
(s)
•Path 1: B→D→H A 5 6 8 6.17 0.50
•Path 2: F→G B 3 4 5 4.00 0.33
C 2 3 3 2.83 0.17
sB+D+H​=√(0.33)2+(0.25)2+(0.08)2= 1.215
D 3.5 4 5 4.08 0.25
sF+G= =√(1.17)2+(0.33)2 = 0.4216​
E 1 3 4 2.83 0.50
​=√(0.50)2+(0.17)2 =0.528​
F 8 10 15 10.50 1.17
​=√(0.33) +(0.25) 0.414​
2 2=
G 2 3 4 3.00 0.33
C H 2 2 2.5 2.08 0.08
A 2 t=2.83
= 6.17 2
6.17 0.50 s=0.17 ​=MAX( 0.53, 0.41)​
t 50 ​=MAX( 1.22+0.4216)​
s=0. B D H
1 t=4.00 3 t=4.08 4 t=2.08 6
0 0 s=0.33 4 0.33 s=0.25 9 0.53 s=0.08
E 13.5 1.22
t =2
s=0 .83
.50 √(0.33)2+(0.50)2 = 0.6
G
F
t=10.50 5 t=3.00 Target
Event No
s=1.17 10.5 1.17 Date
s=0.33
Expected Standard
​=MAX( 1.17, 0.6)​ Date Deviation
 The likelihood of meeting targets

The main advantage of the PERT technique is that it provides a method for
estimating the probability of meeting or missing target dates.
o Suppose that we must complete the project within 15 weeks at the outside.
o We expect it will take 13.5 weeks but it could take more or, perhaps, less.
o In addition, Suppose that activity C must be completed by week 10, as it is to be
carried out by a member of staff who is scheduled to be working on another project,
and that event 5 represents the delivery of intermediate products to the customer,
which must take place by week 10.
 PERT technique - three-step method

The PERT technique uses the following three-step method for calculating the
probability of meeting or missing a target date:
o calculate the standard deviation of each project event;
o calculate the z value for each event that has a target date;
o convert z values to probabilities.
 Standard
Optimistic Most Pessimis Expect
PERT Network with Standard Deviation Activity
(a) Likely (m) tic (b) ed (te)
Deviation
(s)
A 5 6 8 6.17 0.50
B 3 4 5 4.00 0.33
C 2 3 3 2.83 0.17
D 3.5 4 5 4.08 0.25
E 1 3 4 2.83 0.50
F 8 10 15 10.50 1.17
G 2 3 4 3.00 0.33
C H 2 2 2.5 2.08 0.08
A 2 t=2.83
If the project requires some safety buffer,
= 6.17 2
6.17 0.50 s=0.17
t 50 the deadline could be extended to 15.
s=0. B D H
1 t=4.00 3 t=4.08 4 10 t=2.08 6 15
0 0 s=0.33 4 0.33 s=0.25 9 0.53 s=0.08
E 13.5 1.22
t =2
s=0 .83
.
50 G
F
t=10.50 5 10 t=3.00 Target
Event No
s=1.17 10.5 1.17 Date
s=0.33
Expected Standard
Date Deviation
 Calculating the z values

• The z value is calculated for each node that has a target date.
• It is equivalent to the number of standard deviations between the node's expected (Te)
and target dates (T).
• It is calculated using the formula:

where te is the expected date and T is the target date.

 Steps for Project Completion by Week 15

• Expected time for the project = 13.5 weeks

• Target time = 15 weeks
• Standard deviation along the critical path = 1.22
Z = (15−13.5)/1.22 = 1.5 / 1.22 ≈ 1.23

• Using Figure 7.8 we can see that this equates to a probability of

approximately 11 %, that is, there is an 11 % risk of not meeting the
target date of the end of week15
• Thus, there is an 89% chance of meeting the target date
 Converting z values to probabilities
A z value may be converted to the probability of not meeting
the target date by using the graph.
Steps for Project Completion
by Week 14
Z-Score Calculation:
• Target date = 14 weeks
• Expected time = 13.5 weeks
• Standard deviation = 1.22
Z=(14−13.5)/1.22=0.5/1.22≈0.41
Using the Z-Table:
• This means there is a 34.09% chance (probability) of not completing the
project by week 14.

There is a 65% chance of completing the project by week 14.

 The advantages of PERT
• We have seen that by requesting multivalued activity duration
estimates and calculating expected dates, PERT focuses attention on
the uncertainty of forecasting.
• We can use the technique to calculate the standard deviation for each
task and use this to rank them according to their degree of risk.
• Using this ranking, we can see, for example, that activity F is the
one regarding which we have greatest uncertainty, whereas activity
C should, in principle, give us relatively little cause for concern.
Activity Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) Expected (te) Std Dev (s)
A 5 6 8 6.17 0.50
B 3 4 5 4.00 0.33
C 2 3 3 2.83 0.17
D 3.5 4 5 4.08 0.25
E 1 3 4 2.83 0.50
F 8 10 15 10.50 1.17
92 G 2 3 4 3.00 0.33
 The advantages of PERT
• If we use the expected times and standard deviations for forward
passes through the network we can, for any event or activity
completion, estimate the probability of meeting any set target.
• In particular, by setting target dates along the critical path, we can
focus on those activities posing the greatest risk to the project's
schedule.

93
Steps for Event 4
Z-Score Calculation:
Target date = 10 weeks
Expected time = 9 weeks
Standard deviation = 0.5
Z=(10−9)/0.5=1/0.5=2.0
Using the Z-Table:
There is about a 3% chance of not meeting the target for event 4.
There is a 97.72% chance of meeting the target for event 4
Steps for Event 5
Z-Score Calculation:
Target date = 10 weeks
Expected time = 10.5 weeks
Standard deviation = 1.17
Z=(10−10.5)/1.17=−0.5/1.17≈−0.43
Using the Z-Table:
This means there is a 66.64% chance of not meeting the target date for event 5.
There is a 67% chance of delay for event 5 by week 10.
There is a 33% chance of meeting the target for event 4
 Risk management

96
 Risk management
This lecture will touch upon:
• Definition of ‘risk’ and ‘risk management’
• Some ways of categorizing risk
• Risk management
• Risk identification – what are the risks to a project?
• Risk analysis – which ones are really serious?
• Risk planning – what shall we do?
• Risk monitoring – has the planning worked?
• We will also look at PERT risk and critical chains

97
 Risk Categories
• Project Risks: are risks that could prevent the achievement of the
objectives given to the project manager and the project team.
• These objectives are formulated toward achieving project success.

Project success factors:

– On time.
– Within budget.
– Required functionality.
– Quality.
• Project risks can be classified under these four categories.
 Some definitions of risk
‘the chance of exposure to the adverse consequences of future events’
PRINCE2

o Project plans have to be based on assumptions

o Risk is the possibility that an assumption is wrong
o When the risk happens it becomes a problem or an issue

99
 Categories of risk
A different way to categorize risks:
• A sociotechnical model proposed by Kalle Lyytinen and his colleagues.

Sociotechnical Model of Risk

Project risks are those that could prevent the achievement of these objectives and negatively impact
the overall project success.
 Categories of risk

Actors : refers to all people involved in the development of the application.

• Risk:
• A high staff turnover, leads to expertise of value to the project being lost.

Technology: encompasses both the technology:

– Used to implement the application and
– That embedded in the delivered products.
• Risk:
– Relating to the appropriateness of the technology and
– The possible faults in it.
 Categories of risk

Structure: describes the management structures and systems, including those

affecting planning and control.
• Risk:
• Responsibility for managing the users involvement at the implementation stage
might not be clearly allocated.

Tasks: relates to the work planned.

• Risk:
• The complexity of work might lead to delays because of the additional time required
integrate the large number of components.
 Categories of risk

Interconnected Risks:
oThe sociotechnical model shows that risks are often interlinked.
oFor example, novel technologies may lead to delays if developers lack experience
in their use, reflecting an interaction between technology and people.
oOnce developers gain experience, the technology is no longer considered novel.
 Risk Framework
A framework for dealing with risk

The planning for risk includes these steps:

o Risk identification – Recognizing potential risks that could affect
project success.
o Risk analysis and prioritization – Assessing the likelihood and impact
of identified risks to prioritize them.
o Risk planning – Developing strategies to mitigate or eliminate the
risks.
o Risk monitoring – Continuously tracking identified risks and any
emerging risks during the project lifecycle.
 A framework for dealing with risk
1. Risk identification.
2. Risk analysis and prioritization.
3. Risk planning.
4. Risk monitoring.

• When risks are identified, plans can be made to reduce or remove their
effects.
• The plans are reassessed to ensure:
– That the original risks are reduced sufficiently and
– No new risks are inadvertently introduced.
 A framework for dealing with risk

• Example – Staff Inexperience:

• Initial Risk: Staff inexperience with a new technology could delay development.
• Mitigation Strategy: Hiring consultants with expertise in the new technology.
• New Risk: Knowledge transfer might not happen effectively, leaving permanent
staff unprepared for software maintenance.
• Further Risk Planning: Additional steps should be taken to ensure effective
knowledge transfer to avoid future issues.
 Risk identification
Approaches to identifying risks include:
• Use of checklists –
• Checklists are simply lists of the risks that have been found to occur regularly in
software development projects.
• Those checklists often suggest some potential countermeasures for each risk.
• A group of representatives for a project examines a checklist identifying risks
applicable to their project.
• After completing a project, all the problems that were identified as risks during the
project to be added to an organizational risk checklist to be used with new projects.
• Brainstorming – getting knowledgeable stakeholders together to pool
concerns
• Causal mapping – identifying possible chains of cause and effect

107
 Boehm’s top 10 development risks
Risk Risk reduction techniques

Personnel shortfalls Staffing with top talent; job matching; teambuilding; training
and career development; early scheduling of key personnel

Unrealistic time and cost Multiple estimation techniques; design to cost; incremental
estimates development; recording and analysis of past projects;
standardization of methods
Developing the wrong Improved software evaluation; formal specification methods;
software functions user surveys; prototyping; early user manuals

Developing the wrong user Prototyping; task analysis; user involvement

interface

108
 Boehm’s top ten risk - continued

Gold plating Requirements scrubbing, prototyping,

design to cost
Late changes to requirements Change control, incremental development

Shortfalls in externally Benchmarking, inspections, formal specifications, contractual

supplied components agreements, quality controls
Shortfalls in externally Quality assurance procedures, competitive design etc
performed tasks
Real time performance Simulation, prototyping, tuning
problems
Development technically too Technical analysis, cost-benefit analysis, prototyping , training
difficult

109
Risk identification
Brainstorming (thinking ahead):
o Representatives of the main stakeholders of the project, are brought
together , in order to use their individual knowledge of different parts of
the project
 to identify the problems that can occur (identify risks).

o This collaborative approach may generate a sense of ownership in the

project.

110
Causal mapping
 Risk Assessment
Risk analysis and prioritization

o In order to prioritize the risks that were identified, we need a way to distinguish:
o The likely and damaging risks from those identified in the previous step “risk
identification”.
o One way of doing so is to calculate the risk exposure for each risk identified, using
the following formula:

Risk exposure (RE) = (potential damage) x (probability of occurrence)

This formula helps estimate the potential financial cost of a risk by considering both
the likelihood and the possible damage.
 Risk Assessment
Ways of assessing the potential damage and probability of occurrence:
In money values and probabilities.

o Say a project depended on a data center vulnerable to fire. It might be estimated

that if fire occurred a new computer configuration could be established for
$500,000.
o it might also be estimated that there is a 1 in 1000 chance that a fire will occur.

o The risk exposure (RE) in this case would be: 500,000 *0.001=$500

o The higher the RE, the more attention or priority is given to the risk
 Risk prioritization
Example (True or False):
A risk that has a potential damage of $40,000 and a probability of
occurrence of 12%will be given a higher priority than a risk having a
potential damage of $35,000 and a likelihood of 14%. False

Risk Exposure= potential damage * probability of occurrence (likelihood)

Risk Exposure for risk1= 40,000 *0.12=$4800
Risk Exposure for risk1= 35,000 *0.14= $4900
this risk exposure is higher so it will be given more priority.
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)

With some risks:

● Instead of damages,
● There could be gains.
● Example: a task that is scheduled to take six days is completed in 3 days instead.
● A project leader may produce a probability chart for the tasks.

Probability Chart
● The probability completion: shows the probability of completing the task in x days.
● The accumulated probability: shows the probability of completing the task on or
before the xth day.
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)
Relative scales from 0 to 10.
• Both risk loss (impact) and the likelihood (probability of occurrence) will be assessed
using relative scales from 0 to 10.
• Then they will be multiplied together to get a notional risk exposure (RE).
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)
Risk probability: qualitative descriptors

Qualitative descriptors:

Probability level Range

High Greater than 50% chance of happening
Significant 30-50% chance of happening
Moderate 10-29% chance of happening
Low Less than 10% chance of happening
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)

Qualitative descriptors:
Qualitative descriptors of “impact on cost” and associated range values.

Impact level Range

High Greater than 30% above budgeted expenditure
Significant 20 to 29% above budgeted expenditure
Moderate 10 to 19% above budgeted expenditure
Low Within 10% of budgeted expenditure.

118
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)

Consider R5, which refers to that coding the module would take longer than
planned. This risk has an impact on what?
– Time (the planned completion date) and cost.
• What could be a response to such risk?

Option: Add software developers and split the remaining work between them.
• This may increase the cost but will save the planned completion date.

Option: reduce time spent on software testing.

• This will save both duration and staff costs but the price could be decreased quality in the
project deliverable.
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)

The risk exposure cannot be calculated by multiplying the two factors when you
are using qualitative descriptors.
oThe risk exposure instead is indicated by the position of the risk in a matrix.
oThe matrices used are called probability impact grids or summary risk
profiles.
oPart of the matrix (some of the cells) is zoned off by a tolerance line.
oRisks appearing in that zone are given more attention than other risks (higher
degree of seriousness).

120
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)
Probability impact matrix
Tolerance Line: Separates acceptable and unacceptable risks. Risks above the
line (e.g., R1 and R6) are considered unacceptable and require attention or
mitigation.

o R1 (high impact, high probability) indicates a critical risk.

o R6 (high impact, moderate probability) still poses a significant risk
but may be less frequent.
o R2, R3, R5 (moderate positions on both axes) represent moderate
risks.

> 1–(Low Impact)

•1-3 Moderate Impact •1–2 (Low Prob)
•4 –7 (Significant Impact) •3-5 ( Moderate Prob
• 8–10 (High Impact) •6 –7 (Significant Prob)
• 8–10 (High Prob)

121
 Risk Assessment (cont’d)

● There is a need to reassess risk exposure as the project proceeds.

● This mean that some risks could only apply at certain stages.

Example:
o Risk: the key users might not be available when needed to supply
details for their requirements.
o Once the requirement gathering is done.
o – The risk is no longer significant.

122
 Risk planning

Risks can be dealt with by:

• Risk acceptance
• Risk avoidance
• Risk reduction
• Risk transfer
• Risk mitigation/contingency measures

123
 Risk Management
o Managing risks involves identifying potential risks, assessing their impact, and
determining how to mitigate them.
o Risks could include unexpected staff illness, project delays, or technical failures.

Risk Reduction Activities:

oSome risks (e.g., staff illness) may not be significantly reduced by preventative measures.
oFor example, while encouraging a healthy lifestyle can reduce illness, it won’t eliminate risks
entirely.
oThese risks may require a contingency plan—an action plan triggered only if the risk materializes,
such as drafting in backup staff when someone falls ill.

124
 Risk reduction leverage

Risk reduction leverage = (REbefore- REafter) / (cost of risk reduction)

Rebefore is risk exposure before risk reduction
e.g. 1% chance of a fire causing £200k damage
REafter is risk exposure after risk reduction
e.g. fire alarm costing £500 reduces probability of fire damage to 0.5%

RRL = (1% of £200k)-(0.5% of £200k)/£500 = 2

RRL > 1.00 therefore worth doing

125
 Risk Management
Contingency vs. Preventative Actions:
oPreventative actions (e.g., maintaining health programs, or backing up data) incur costs whether or not
the risk occurs. For instance, regular database backups are necessary to ensure data can be restored if
needed.
oContingency actions, on the other hand, only incur costs when the risk actually happens (e.g., hiring
temporary staff during an illness).

Risk Register:
oA risk register documents potential risks, their impacts, the likelihood of occurrence, and mitigation or
contingency plans.
oIt is a dynamic tool, regularly updated as new risks emerge or as existing risks are mitigated or
resolved.
Maintaining the Risk Register:
oThe risk register should be reviewed at regular intervals as part of project control processes.
oRisks that are no longer relevant can be closed, and new risks should be documented as they arise.
Using PERT to evaluate the effects of uncertainty
Three estimates are produced for each activity
 Most likely time (m)
 Optimistic time (a)
 Pessimistic (b)

• ‘expected time’ - te = (a + 4m +b) / 6

• ‘activity standard deviation’ - S = (b-a)/6

127
 A chain of activities

Task A Task B Task C

Task a m b te s

A 10 12 16 ? ?
B 8 10 14 ? ?

C 20 24 38 ? ?
 A chain of activities

o What would be the expected duration of the chain A + B + C?

o Answer: 12.66 + 10.33 + 25.66 i.e. 48.65
o What would be the standard deviation for A + B+ C?
o Answer: square root of (12 + 12 + 32) i.e. 3.32

129
Assessing the likelihood of meeting a target

o Say the target for completing A+B+C was 52 days (T)

o Calculate the z value thus
z = (T – te)/s
o In this example z = (52-48.33)/3.32 i.e. 1.01
o Look up in table of z values – see next overhead

130
 Graph of z values

131
 Monte Carlo Simulation

An alternative to PERT.
•A class of general analysis techniques:
•Valuable to solve any problem that is complex, nonlinear, or involves
more than just a couple of uncertain parameters.
•Monte Carlo simulations involve repeated random sampling to
compute the results.
•Gives more realistic results as compared to manual approaches.
 Activity Start Date:
oThe white bars represent the distribution of possible start dates.
oFor example, most activities start between week 60 and week 65, with the highest
likelihood around week 62. This means that in most simulation scenarios, the activity
starts somewhere within this range.
Activity End Date:
oThe gray bars represent the distribution of possible end dates.
oMost activities end between week 66 and week 74, with the peak likelihood at
week 70.

Random Input Generation: For each simulation run, the Monte Carlo method randomly selects
values from the defined distributions for each parameter (e.g., task duration, costs, or risks).
These distributions could be normal, triangular, uniform, or any other distribution that best describes
the uncertainty of that variable.
 Resource Allocation - Introduction

o CPM introduced activity network analysis to plan and schedule activities based
on the time span between the earliest start and latest finish dates.
o PERT technique was used to forecast a range of expected completion dates for
activities.
o Both CPM and PERT, however, do not account for resource availability when
planning.
o This chapter explores how to align the activity plan with available resources and
assess the impact of modifying the plan to fit resource constraints.
 Resource Allocation

o The allocation of resources to activities will lead us to review

and modify the ideal activity plan.
o It may cause us to revise stage or project completion dates

o The final result of resource allocation involves schedules like

o Activity Schedule
o Resource Schedule
o Cost Schedule
Schedules
The final result of resource allocation will normally be a number of schedules,
including:

• Activity schedule - indicating start and completion dates for each

activity
• Resource schedule - indicating dates when resources needed + level
of resources
• Cost schedule - showing accumulative expenditure
 The Nature of Resources
Resource – any person, item, tool, or service that is needed by the project that is either
scarce or has limited availability
These include
oLabour: Project team members (e.g., manager, analysts, developers), quality assurance, support
staff, and client participants.
oEquipment: Includes workstations, computing tools, office furniture like desks and chairs.
oMaterials: Consumable items, less relevant for software projects, but important for distribution
(e.g., disks).
oSpace: Office space needed, especially for additional recruited or contracted staff.
oServices: Specialized services like telecommunications may be required for certain projects.
oTime: Can be adjusted against other resources; reduced by increasing resources or extended if
resources are cut.
oMoney: A secondary resource, used to acquire other resources, comes at a cost like interest
charges.
138
 Resource allocation
Identifying Resource Requirements
o The first step in resource allocation plan is to list the resources that will be required
along with the expected level of demand.
o This can be done by considering each activity in turn and identifying the resources
required.

o Activity-Based Identification: Resources are usually identified for each activity in

the project.
o Non-Activity Specific Resources: Some resources, like a project manager or office
space, may be required for the overall project infrastructure rather than specific
activities.
o Support Resources: Additional resources (e.g., office space) may be needed to
support other resources, like housing contract software developers.
139
 Methods used in allocating and scheduling resources

o Precedence graph
o Activity bar chart
o Resource histograms
SPM (5e) resource allocation© The McGraw-Hill Companies,
143
2011
 Resource Requirement List
Stage Activity Resource Days Quantity Notes
ALL Project manager - 104 F/T -
1 All Workstation - 34 Check software availability
IoE/P/1 Senior analyst 34 F/T -
2 All Workstation - 3 One per person essential
IoE/P/2 Analyst/designer 20 F/T -
IoE/P/3 Analyst/designer 15 F/T -
IoE/P/4 Analyst/designer 25 F/T -
IoE/P/5 Analyst/designer 15 F/T - Could use analyst/programmer
3 All Workstation - 2
IoE/P/6 Senior analyst* 2 F/T -
4 All Workstation - 3 As stage 2
IoE/P/7 Analyst/designer 7 F/T -
IoE/P/8 Analyst/designer 6 F/T -
IoE/P/9 Analyst/designer 4 F/T -
IoE/P/10 Analyst/designer 4 F/T -
5 All Workstation - 4 One per programmer
All Office space - - If contract programmers used
IoE/P/11 Programmer 30 F/T -
IoE/P/12 Programmer 28 F/T -
IoE/P/13 Programmer 15 F/T -
IoE/P/14 Programmer 25 F/T -
6 All Full system access - - Approx. 16 hours for full system test
IoE/P/15 Analyst/designer 6 F/T -
 Scheduling Resources
o After identifying resource requirement list, next is to map this list to
activity plan to assess the distribution of resources required over the
duration of the project.
o Can be done by representing the activity plan as a bar chart and
produce a histogram for each resource.
 Resource histogram: systems analysts

5
STAFF REQD.

WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
147
 Problem
o It causes
o Two analyst/designers to be idle for twelve days
o One for seven days
o One for two days between specification and design
o Another problem in uneven histogram is it is that more likely to call
for levels of resource beyond those available.
 Resource smoothing
o It is usually difficult to get specialist staff who will work odd days to fill in
gaps – need for staff to learn about application etc
o Staff often have to be employed for a continuous block of time
o Therefore desirable to employ a constant number of staff on a project – who
as far as possible are fully employed
o Hence need for resource smoothing

149
 Resource smoothing
o By adjusting the start date of some activities and splitting others, a resource
histogram can subject to constraints such as precedence requirement, be
smoothed to contain resource at available levels.
o By delaying the start of some activities, reduces the maximum level of
demand for the resource.
o Non-critical activities can be split, they can provide a useful way of filling.

150
 The different letters represent staff working on a series of module testing tasks, that is, one person working
on task A, two on tasks B and C etc

A resource histogram showing demand for staff before and after smoothing
 Resource smoothing

5
STAFF REQD.

WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
152
 Prioritizing activities
Total float priority
o Activities are ordered according to the total float those with Smallest total float
has higher priority (Like Ranking)
Ordered list priority
o Activities that can be proceed at the same time are ordered according to a set of
simple criteria.

Burman's Priority list: Give priority to:

o Shortest Critical Activities
o Critical Activities
o Shortest Non-Critical Activities
o Non-Critical Activities with Least Float
o Non- Critical Activities

153
 Resource usage

o need to maximise %usage of resources i.e. reduce idle periods

between tasks
o need to balance costs against early completion date
o need to allow for contingency

154
 Critical path
o Scheduling resources can create new dependencies between activities –
recall critical chains
o It is best not to add dependencies to the activity network to reflect resource
constraints
o Makes network very messy
o A resource constraint may disappear during the project, but link remains on
network
o Amend dates on schedule to reflect resource constraints

155
 Allocating individuals to activities
o Individual Allocation: Allocating specific individuals to activities early in software
projects can help refine estimates of task duration due to differences in skill and
experience.
o Factors in Individual Allocation:
o Availability: Check if individuals will be available when needed, while also
considering risks (e.g., project overruns affecting availability).
o Criticality: Assign more experienced staff to tasks on the critical path to potentially
shorten project duration and reduce overrun risks.
o Risk: Allocate experienced staff to high-risk activities to reduce project uncertainties,
though they may come at a higher cost.
o Training: Assign junior staff to non-critical tasks with sufficient slack to allow for
skill development and training, benefiting both the project and the organization.
o Team Building: Consider how individual choices will shape the team dynamics and
ensure team collaboration
156
 Cost schedules
Cost Schedule:
•Weekly or monthly cost schedules provide accurate estimates for project costs and a plan
to monitor progress.

Costs are categorized as follows:

Staff Costs:
oInclude salaries, social security, pension contributions, holiday pay, and sick benefits.
oCharged at hourly rates or, for contract staff, weekly or monthly even if idle.
Overhead Costs:
oIndirect costs like space rental, interest charges, and service department expenses.
oRecovered through fixed charges or an additional percentage on direct staff costs.
Usage Charges:
oDirect charges for resource use, such as computer time, on an ‘as-used’ basis, depending
on the organization's policies.
157
Cost profile

158
Accumulative costs
 Balancing concerns

Successful project scheduling is not a simple sequence 160