Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...A VERY VOLATILE SETUP IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF MS
LATER TODAY AS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNS INTO AN
AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
AR/NORTHEAST LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
START BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS WHERE DISCRETE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG/VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 232 TORNADO AR LA MS 271605Z - 280000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ESE HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 50N TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /18WNW MCB - 60E MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 31369169 34998991 34998762 31368948
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 232 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 232
VALID 272340Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MCB
TO 30 NNE JAN TO 45 SSE UOX TO 40 S MKL.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-013-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-057-061-065-067-069-073-
075-077-079-081-085-087-091-095-099-101-103-105-115-117-121-123-
127-129-139-141-145-155-159-280040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LEE LINCOLN LOWNDES
MARION MONROE NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 232
VALID 272235Z - 272340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HEZ TO
40 NW JAN TO 25 N GWO TO 35 S MKL.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-007-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049-051-
057-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-095-
097-099-101-103-105-115-117-121-123-127-129-139-141-145-155-159-
163-272340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ATTALA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LEE LEFLORE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS RANKIN
SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 232
VALID 272140Z - 272240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HEZ TO
55 E MLU TO 20 ESE LLQ.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC017-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICOT
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
149-151-155-159-161-163-272240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
DESOTO FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAFAYETTE
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 232
VALID 272045Z - 272140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-272140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-272140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
149-151-155-159-161-163-272140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
DESOTO FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAFAYETTE
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 232
VALID 271940Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-272040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
149-151-155-159-161-163-272040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
DESOTO FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAFAYETTE
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
TNC071-109-272040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN MCNAIRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 232
VALID 271835Z - 271940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-271940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-271940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
149-151-155-159-161-163-271940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
DESOTO FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAFAYETTE
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 232
VALID 271735Z - 271840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-271840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
$$
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-271840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
149-151-155-159-161-163-271840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN ATTALA
BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
DESOTO FORREST FRANKLIN
GRENADA HINDS HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES KEMPER LAFAYETTE
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WINSTON YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
High (90%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (90%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (90%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.