weather.gov

Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Zip Code

Search WPC


NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast Charts National High & Low WPC Discussions Surface Analysis Days ½-2½ CONUS Days 3-7 CONUS Days 4-8 Alaska QPF PQPF Excessive Rainfall Mesoscale Precip Discussion Flood Outlook Winter Weather Storm Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products
Current Watches/ Warnings
Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification QPF Medium Range Model Diagnostics Event Reviews Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training WPC HydroMet Testbed Development
WPC Overview About the WPC Mission and Vision Staff WPC History About Our Products Other Sites FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us About Our Site About Our Products

WPC Verification

Forecast Products

QPF's: 24-Hourly 6-Hourly Days 4-5/6-7 5-Day Total
Medium Range: Min Temps Max Temps Prob of Pcpn (PoP) WPC Grids
Sea-level Pressure

Verification for specific events: Hurricane Isaac QPF Hurricane Sandy QPF

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores and Observed Areal Coverage; Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias

.50 inch (1961-2023)	1.00 inch (1961-2023)	2.00 inches (1970-2023)
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Annual WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores 1993-2023

	1.00 inch
Day 1	Threat	Percent Improvement Over NWP

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias October 2023 to October 2024

	.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Day 1	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 2	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 3	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00") October 2023 to October 2024

Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3) October 2023 to October 2024

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

NAM and GFS QPF Verification by Region

Object-oriented Verification

6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Update October 2023 to October 2024

00-06 Hours

.25 inch

.50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 1 October 2023 to October 2024

06-12 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
12-18 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
18-24 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
24-30 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 2 October 2023 to October 2024

30-36 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
36-42 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
42-48 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
48-54 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 3 October 2023 to October 2024

54-60 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
60-66 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
66-72 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
72-78 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

WPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores October 2024

All 6-Hour Periods

.25 inch

.50 inch

Days 4-5/6-7 QPF's

Annual WPC Days 4-5/6-7 Threat Scores and Observed Areal Coverage (2001-2023)

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat	Threat	Threat

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias October 2023 to October 2024

	.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Days 4-5	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Days 6-7	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00" October 2023 to October 2024

Days 4-5	Threat	Bias
Days 6-7	Threat	Bias

5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias October 2023 to October 2024

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches	3.00 inches	4.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00" October 2023 to October 2024

Threat

Bias

Medium-Range Forecasts

Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2023)

WPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 min temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 min temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (October 2023 - October 2024)

WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - October 2024)

WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts

Maximum Temperatures

Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2023)

WPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 max temp fcsts

WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 max temp fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts (October 2023 - October 2024)

WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - October 2024)

WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (October 2023 - October 2024)

WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts

WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January - October 2024)

WPC improvement over MOS Brier score, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts

Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (December 2018 - December 2019)

WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts

WPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts

How grids are verified

Monthly Performance Charts (December 2019)
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error

Forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists

NBM/WPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature (Days 4-7)	MAE	Bias
NBM/WPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature (Days 4-7)	MAE	Bias
NBM/WPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP (Days 4-7)	Brier Score

Products derived from forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists

NBM/WPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

NBM/WPC/NDFD Wind Speed
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

NBM/WPC/NDFD Wind Direction
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

WPC/NDFD Cloud Cover
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180) MAE Bias

Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)

WPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations


NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Weather Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Weather Prediction Center Web Team	Disclaimer Credits Glossary	Privacy Policy About Us Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 01-Dec-2024 17:20:06 UTC

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.

Alternative Proxies:

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.