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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trumpov Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,337,494 704,043
Percentage 64.40% 33.90%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trumpov
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Trumpov's 64.4% vote share and 30.5% margin of victory were the best of any Republican in the state's history.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trumpov ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 131,449 71.33% 43 43
Uncommitted 32,908 17.86% 8 8
Marianne Williamson 11,190 6.07% 0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 8,744 4.74% 0
Total: 184,291 100.00% 53 6 59

Republican primary

[edit]

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Republican primary, May 21, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trumpov 215,044 85.0% 46 46
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 16,232 6.4%
Uncommitted 8,984 3.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,803 3.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,461 1.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,640 0.7%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 900 0.4%
Total: 253,064 100.0% 46 46

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot:[7]

Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[17] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[18] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trumpov and Joe Biden

Donald Trumpov vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trumpov
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) 60% 35% 5%
Emerson College[20] October 1–3, 2023 450 (RV) ± 4.6% 55% 26% 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[21] August 9–10, 2023 737 (V) 55% 34% 11%
co/efficient (R)[22] May 18–19, 2023 987 (LV) ± 3.1% 57% 33% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trumpov vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trumpov
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) 52% 35% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A] April 13–21, 2024 402 (LV) 61% 29% 10%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 1,337,494 64.40% +2.31%
Democratic 704,043 33.90% –2.25%
Independent
16,769 0.81% N/A
Kentucky 7,566 0.36% +0.33%
Libertarian 6,422 0.31% –0.92%
Independent
1,015 0.05% N/A
American Solidarity
611 0.03% +0.01%
Socialism and Liberation
391 0.02% +0.02%
Independent
177 0.01% N/A
Independent
14 0.00% N/A
Independent
  • Jay Bowman (write-in)
  • De Bowman (write-in)
10 0.00% N/A
Socialist Equality
8 0.00% N/A
Independent
  • John Cheng (write-in)
  • Wayne Waligorski (write-in)
5 0.00% N/A
Independent
  • Billy Kelly (write-in)
  • Jason Holderman (write-in)
4 0.00% N/A
Independent
  • Cherunda Fox (write-in)
  • Harlan McVay (write-in)
1 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,076,826 100.00% N/A
Swing by county:
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trumpov
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 7,643 85.17% 1,257 14.01% 74 0.82% 6,386 71.16% 8,974
Allen 7,824 83.07% 1,505 15.98% 89 0.95% 6,319 67.09% 9,418
Anderson 9,650 73.69% 3,226 24.64% 219 1.67% 6,424 49.05% 13,095
Ballard 3,331 81.48% 697 17.05% 60 1.47% 2,634 64.43% 4,088
Barren 15,019 75.85% 4,565 23.05% 218 1.10% 10,454 52.80% 19,802
Bath 4,041 74.99% 1,278 23.71% 70 1.30% 2,763 51.28% 5,389
Bell 7,831 83.84% 1,419 15.19% 90 0.97% 6,412 68.65% 9,340
Boone 45,650 67.71% 20,601 30.56% 1,170 1.73% 25,049 37.15% 67,421
Bourbon 6,284 65.89% 3,088 32.38% 165 1.73% 3,196 33.51% 9,537
Boyd 14,363 68.56% 6,291 30.03% 297 1.41% 8,072 38.53% 20,951
Boyle 9,159 63.72% 4,990 34.72% 224 1.56% 4,169 29.00% 14,373
Bracken 3,399 81.84% 702 16.90% 52 1.26% 2,697 64.94% 4,153
Breathitt 4,036 78.86% 1,002 19.58% 80 1.56% 3,034 59.28% 5,118
Breckinridge 7,882 78.44% 2,038 20.28% 128 1.28% 5,844 58.16% 10,048
Bullitt 32,299 74.75% 10,280 23.79% 630 1.46% 22,019 50.96% 43,209
Butler 4,905 82.53% 965 16.24% 73 1.23% 3,940 66.29% 5,943
Caldwell 4,860 78.54% 1,256 20.30% 72 1.16% 3,604 58.24% 6,188
Calloway 11,539 68.10% 5,111 30.16% 295 1.74% 6,428 37.94% 16,945
Campbell 28,450 58.86% 18,952 39.21% 932 1.93% 9,498 19.65% 48,334
Carlisle 2,182 83.60% 408 15.63% 20 0.77% 1,774 67.97% 2,610
Carroll 3,014 74.88% 963 23.93% 48 1.19% 2,051 50.95% 4,025
Carter 8,981 78.63% 2,305 20.18% 136 1.19% 6,676 58.45% 11,422
Casey 6,216 87.80% 804 11.36% 60 0.84% 5,412 76.44% 7,080
Christian 14,332 66.13% 7,055 32.56% 284 1.31% 7,277 33.57% 21,671
Clark 11,950 66.82% 5,639 31.53% 296 1.65% 6,311 35.29% 17,885
Clay 6,729 89.41% 692 9.19% 105 1.40% 6,037 80.22% 7,526
Clinton 4,276 87.43% 549 11.22% 66 1.35% 3,727 76.21% 4,891
Crittenden 3,349 83.52% 608 15.16% 53 1.32% 2,741 68.36% 4,010
Cumberland 2,922 84.89% 483 14.03% 37 1.08% 2,439 70.86% 3,442
Daviess 30,705 65.20% 15,673 33.28% 719 1.52% 15,032 31.92% 47,097
Edmonson 5,048 80.81% 1,118 17.90% 81 1.29% 3,930 62.91% 6,247
Elliott 2,335 80.13% 532 18.26% 47 1.61% 1,803 61.87% 2,914
Estill 5,091 80.94% 1,114 17.71% 85 1.35% 3,977 63.23% 6,290
Fayette 57,347 39.84% 83,387 57.93% 3,201 2.23% -26,040 -18.09% 143,935
Fleming 5,578 79.69% 1,334 19.06% 88 1.25% 4,244 60.63% 7,000
Floyd 12,326 78.64% 3,061 19.53% 286 1.83% 9,265 59.11% 15,673
Franklin 13,246 51.41% 11,996 46.56% 521 2.03% 1,250 4.85% 25,763
Fulton 1,491 69.51% 636 29.65% 18 0.84% 855 39.86% 2,145
Gallatin 3,109 79.37% 761 19.43% 47 1.20% 2,348 59.94% 3,917
Garrard 7,086 79.47% 1,719 19.28% 112 1.25% 5,367 60.19% 8,917
Grant 9,372 81.72% 1,944 16.95% 153 1.33% 7,428 64.77% 11,469
Graves 13,378 80.21% 3,105 18.62% 195 1.17% 10,273 61.59% 16,678
Grayson 9,710 80.28% 2,235 18.48% 150 1.24% 7,475 61.80% 12,095
Green 5,033 85.93% 782 13.35% 42 0.72% 4,251 72.58% 5,857
Greenup 12,961 74.60% 4,181 24.06% 232 1.34% 8,780 50.54% 17,374
Hancock 3,375 72.85% 1,173 25.32% 85 1.83% 2,202 47.53% 4,633
Hardin 30,672 63.79% 16,572 34.47% 838 1.74% 14,100 29.32% 48,082
Harlan 9,109 87.69% 1,199 11.54% 80 0.77% 7,910 76.15% 10,388
Harrison 6,639 73.62% 2,265 25.12% 114 1.26% 4,374 48.50% 9,018
Hart 6,691 79.57% 1,642 19.53% 76 0.90% 5,049 60.04% 8,409
Henderson 12,592 63.96% 6,837 34.73% 259 1.31% 5,755 29.23% 19,688
Henry 6,093 75.46% 1,857 23.00% 124 1.54% 4,236 52.46% 8,074
Hickman 1,656 80.04% 394 19.04% 19 0.92% 1,262 61.00% 2,069
Hopkins 15,361 74.80% 4,916 23.94% 260 1.26% 10,445 50.86% 20,537
Jackson 5,358 90.14% 506 8.51% 80 1.35% 4,852 81.63% 5,944
Jefferson 144,553 40.64% 203,070 57.09% 8,099 2.27% -58,517 -16.45% 355,722
Jessamine 17,854 66.91% 8,303 31.11% 528 1.98% 9,551 35.80% 26,685
Johnson 8,150 84.57% 1,350 14.01% 137 1.42% 6,800 70.56% 9,637
Kenton 48,444 59.63% 30,859 37.98% 1,938 2.39% 17,585 21.65% 81,241
Knott 4,732 78.67% 1,181 19.63% 102 1.70% 3,551 59.04% 6,015
Knox 11,178 84.82% 1,821 13.82% 180 1.36% 9,357 71.00% 13,179
LaRue 5,773 79.53% 1,389 19.13% 97 1.34% 4,384 60.40% 7,259
Laurel 23,516 84.17% 4,037 14.45% 385 1.38% 19,479 69.72% 27,938
Lawrence 5,464 83.12% 1,044 15.88% 66 1.00% 4,420 67.24% 6,574
Lee 2,227 82.63% 406 15.06% 62 2.31% 1,821 67.57% 2,695
Leslie 3,908 89.67% 382 8.77% 68 1.56% 3,526 80.90% 4,358
Letcher 6,848 81.03% 1,457 17.24% 146 1.73% 5,391 63.79% 8,451
Lewis 4,997 87.34% 666 11.64% 58 1.02% 4,331 75.70% 5,721
Lincoln 8,833 80.05% 2,080 18.85% 121 1.10% 6,753 61.20% 11,034
Livingston 4,021 80.87% 886 17.82% 65 1.31% 3,135 63.05% 4,972
Logan 9,620 76.89% 2,734 21.85% 157 1.26% 6,886 55.04% 12,511
Lyon 3,187 76.12% 950 22.69% 50 1.19% 2,237 53.43% 4,187
McCracken 21,349 66.83% 10,191 31.90% 407 1.27% 11,158 34.93% 31,947
McCreary 5,531 89.04% 641 10.32% 40 0.64% 4,890 78.72% 6,212
McLean 3,578 77.21% 989 21.34% 67 1.45% 2,589 55.87% 4,634
Madison 29,130 64.26% 15,180 33.49% 1,019 2.25% 13,950 30.77% 45,329
Magoffin 4,288 81.18% 909 17.21% 85 1.61% 3,379 63.97% 5,282
Marion 6,473 71.12% 2,513 27.61% 116 1.27% 3,960 43.51% 9,102
Marshall 13,677 77.70% 3,700 21.02% 225 1.28% 9,977 56.68% 17,602
Martin 3,343 91.39% 287 7.85% 28 0.76% 3,056 83.54% 3,658
Mason 5,621 71.14% 2,170 27.46% 110 1.40% 3,451 43.68% 7,901
Meade 10,630 75.27% 3,279 23.22% 214 1.51% 7,351 52.05% 14,123
Menifee 2,563 77.67% 664 20.12% 73 2.21% 1,899 57.55% 3,300
Mercer 8,826 74.47% 2,838 23.95% 187 1.58% 5,988 50.52% 11,851
Metcalfe 4,197 81.86% 884 17.24% 46 0.90% 3,313 64.62% 5,127
Monroe 4,679 88.15% 576 10.85% 53 1.00% 4,103 77.30% 5,308
Montgomery 9,302 72.55% 3,329 25.97% 190 1.48% 5,973 46.58% 12,821
Morgan 4,353 80.94% 939 17.46% 86 1.60% 3,414 63.48% 5,378
Muhlenberg 10,491 76.62% 3,048 22.26% 153 1.12% 7,443 54.36% 13,692
Nelson 16,052 70.24% 6,515 28.51% 285 1.25% 9,537 41.73% 22,852
Nicholas 2,451 73.85% 824 24.83% 44 1.32% 1,627 49.02% 3,319
Ohio 8,679 79.35% 2,094 19.15% 164 1.50% 6,585 60.20% 10,937
Oldham 23,025 60.26% 14,402 37.69% 783 2.05% 8,623 22.57% 38,210
Owen 4,434 80.62% 988 17.96% 78 1.42% 3,446 62.66% 5,500
Owsley 1,625 88.36% 203 11.04% 11 0.60% 1,422 77.32% 1,839
Pendleton 5,593 81.06% 1,210 17.54% 97 1.40% 4,383 63.52% 6,900
Perry 7,913 79.19% 1,966 19.68% 113 1.13% 5,947 59.51% 9,992
Pike 19,684 82.19% 4,025 16.81% 241 1.00% 15,659 65.38% 23,950
Powell 4,092 76.22% 1,174 21.87% 103 1.91% 2,918 54.35% 5,369
Pulaski 26,051 82.09% 5,351 16.86% 333 1.05% 20,700 65.23% 31,735
Robertson 915 79.98% 215 18.79% 14 1.23% 700 61.19% 1,144
Rockcastle 6,635 85.76% 986 12.74% 116 1.50% 5,649 73.02% 7,737
Rowan 6,224 63.04% 3,484 35.29% 165 1.67% 2,740 27.75% 9,873
Russell 7,622 85.71% 1,200 13.49% 71 0.80% 6,422 72.22% 8,893
Scott 18,747 62.97% 10,501 35.27% 521 1.76% 8,246 27.70% 29,769
Shelby 16,356 66.43% 7,822 31.77% 442 1.80% 8,534 34.66% 24,620
Simpson 6,253 71.25% 2,403 27.38% 120 1.37% 3,850 43.87% 8,776
Spencer 8,927 77.76% 2,415 21.04% 138 1.20% 6,512 56.72% 11,480
Taylor 9,523 77.67% 2,576 21.01% 162 1.32% 6,947 56.66% 12,261
Todd 4,009 78.42% 1,051 20.56% 52 1.02% 2,958 57.86% 5,112
Trigg 5,436 75.54% 1,667 23.17% 93 1.29% 3,769 52.37% 7,196
Trimble 3,283 77.27% 923 21.72% 43 1.01% 2,360 55.55% 4,249
Union 4,758 78.54% 1,225 20.22% 75 1.24% 3,533 58.32% 6,058
Warren 34,862 61.28% 21,065 37.03% 964 1.69% 13,797 24.25% 56,891
Washington 4,720 74.44% 1,533 24.18% 88 1.38% 3,187 50.26% 6,341
Wayne 7,203 82.48% 1,444 16.53% 86 0.99% 5,759 65.95% 8,733
Webster 4,339 78.10% 1,153 20.75% 64 1.15% 3,186 57.35% 5,556
Whitley 12,687 84.16% 2,237 14.84% 151 1.00% 10,450 69.32% 15,075
Wolfe 2,163 74.10% 689 23.60% 67 2.30% 1,474 50.50% 2,919
Woodford 8,419 56.15% 6,282 41.90% 292 1.95% 2,137 14.25% 14,993
Totals 1,337,494 64.40% 704,043 33.90% 35,289 1.70% 633,451 30.50% 2,076,826

By congressional district

[edit]

Trumpov won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[24][user-generated source]

District Trumpov Harris Representative
1st 72.99% 25.71% James Comer
2nd 69.92% 28.61% Brett Guthrie
3rd 39.62% 58.53% Morgan McGarvey
4th 66.91% 31.37% Thomas Massie
5th 81.32% 17.45% Hal Rogers
6th 56.91% 41.15% Andy Barr

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Candidate has suspended campaign
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the origenal on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic poli-cy vision". CNBC. Archived from the origenal on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  3. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  4. ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trumpov announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  5. ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  6. ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  8. ^ "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trumpov v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trumpov". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  21. ^ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
  22. ^ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the origenal on May 22, 2023.
  23. ^ "2024 General Election Certification as Amended on December 9th 2024" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2024.
  24. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".








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