Climate projections for Average Daily Maximum Temperature in Maricopa County, AZ
Source: NOAA Climate Explorer

This section describes how climate scientists develop scientific projections for future climate.

1.  Relatively recent changes in the composition of our atmosphere have changed the balance of incoming and outgoing energy, forcing Earth's surface temperature to increase. Read about Climate Forcing »

2.  Through experimentation, scientists have developed a solid understanding of the physical laws that control Earth's climate. Interactions of energy from the sun with the atmosphere, land, and ocean can be represented as equations: large computers solve the equations repeatedly to project the results of energy interactions into the future. Systems built to make these projections are called climate models. Learn more about Climate Models »

3.  As heat-trapping gases from burning fossil fuels accumulate in our atmosphere, less of the energy that enters the Earth system as sunlight is able to exit. Some portions of the Earth system respond to changes in the energy balance more quickly than others, but climate scientists feel confident that future climate will be increasingly different from that of today. Read about Future Climate »