Tropical Weather Summary

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Note:  The information contained in this product represents data and analyses available at the time this product was issued. Olga, a post-season storm, occurred from 10-13 December. An updated summary table has been created, and detailed Tropical Cyclone Reports are documented for each storm.

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000
ABNT30 KNHC 301451
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH
SIX BECAME HURRICANES...WITH TWO OF THE HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED
DURING THE YEAR. THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES
WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. IN TERMS OF THE NOAA
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...WHICH MEASURES THE
COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...
THE SEASON HAD ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE 1951-2000 MEDIAN ACTIVITY...
THE LOWEST OBSERVED SINCE 2002. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL
ACTIVITY...TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE
LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1851. 

ANDREA ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT HAD FORMED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON 6 MAY...AND
GRADUALLY ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  ANDREA BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 175
MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 0600 UTC 9 MAY.  NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR CAUSED ANDREA TO WEAKEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH
BY 1200 UTC 10 MAY AND TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 11
MAY. THE REMNANT LOW LATER BECAME ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON 14 MAY.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON 30 MAY.  THE LOW MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON 31 MAY
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECAME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER EARLY ON 1 JUNE.  THE ORGANIZATION CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED AT 1200 UTC 1 JUNE...JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.  SIX HOURS LATER THE
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  BARRY REACHED A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 MPH AT 0000 UTC 2 JUNE WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.  THEREAFTER...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTED IN WEAKENING AND BARRY
MADE LANDFALL IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND
1400 UTC 2 JUNE.  BARRY QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE LOCATED OVER EASTERN GEORGIA
EARLY ON 3 JUNE.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW INTENSIFIED AND MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND WAS
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER ON 5 JUNE.  THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF DEATHS OR SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY.

CHANTAL FORMED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA EARLY ON 31 JULY.  IT
MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH LATER ON 31 JULY.
CHANTAL WAS SHORT-LIVED...AND IT LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY EARLY ON 1 AUGUST AS IT APPROACHED SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 
AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
HEAVY RAINS...THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENED TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE SYSTEM MERGED WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ICELAND AND LOST ITS
IDENTITY ON 5 AUGUST.

DEAN...WHICH MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...FORMED
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 13 AUGUST.  THE
CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED JUST
NORTH OF DUE WEST.  DEAN BECAME A HURRICANE ON 16 AUGUST ABOUT 500
MILES EAST OF BARBADOS...AND CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED
CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE CENTER OF DEAN PASSED BETWEEN
ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE DURING THE MORNING OF 17 AUGUST...WITH THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL PASSING OVER MARTINIQUE WITH CATEGORY TWO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 100 MPH.  AFTER CLEARING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...DEAN BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY...AND ITS
WINDS REACHED 150 MPH EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA.  CONTINUING ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF
WEST...THE CENTER OF DEAN PASSED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF JAMAICA ON 19 AUGUST.  AT THAT TIME DEAN WAS A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 145 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE.  

DEAN'S HEADING REMAINED REMARKABLY CONSTANT AND IT CONTINUED OVER
THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  DEAN BECAME A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE VERY EARLY ON 21 AUGUST ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 165
MPH...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 906 MB...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR
COSTA MAYA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DEAN WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE DURING ITS TRAVERSE OF THE YUCATAN...AND EMERGED INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE ON 21 AUGUST.  DEAN STRENGTHENED TO A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 100 MPH...JUST BEFORE
MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY ON 22 AUGUST ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED EARLY ON 23 AUGUST
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO. REPORTS FROM VARIOUS MEDIA
SOURCES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ROUGHLY 40 DEATHS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE LARGEST TOLLS IN MEXICO AND HAITI.  

ERIN FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EARLY ON 15 AUGUST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.  MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH LATER THAT DAY WHILE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE...BUT ERIN DID NOT
STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER OVER THE GULF.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MADE LANDFALL NEAR LAMAR TEXAS ON THE MORNING OF 16 AUGUST...AND BY
THAT TIME ERIN HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 35 MPH.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND
DURING 16-17 AUGUST AND TURNED NORTHWARD OVER WEST TEXAS ON 18
AUGUST.  SURVIVING REMARKABLY OVER LAND...THE CYCLONE ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA VERY EARLY ON 19 AUGUST.  WHILE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA THAT MORNING...ERIN PRODUCED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS.  POST-STORM ANALYSIS OF THIS UNUSUAL EVENT IS
ONGOING TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND STATUS OF ERIN OVER OKLAHOMA. 
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED LATER ON 19 AUGUST OVER NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI.  OVERALL...ERIN AND ITS REMNANTS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN...SOUTH-CENTRAL...AND WESTERN TEXAS...
OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3-7 INCHES WERE COMMON IN MANY OF THESE AREAS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVING MORE THAN 10 INCHES.  MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE AT LEAST 16
FATALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN OR ITS REMNANTS...MOSTLY DUE TO
INLAND FLOODING.

FELIX FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA ON 24 AUGUST.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 28 AUGUST...AND THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 31 AUGUST ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.  THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT PASSED NEAR GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES EARLY ON 1
SEPTEMBER.  FELIX MOVED WESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE
LATER THAT DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  RAPID
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED...AND FELIX BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. 
THE HURRICANE WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3 ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS IT UNDERWENT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  IT THEN RE-INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 5
STATUS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON 4 SEPTEMBER NEAR PUNTA GORDA
NICARAGUA.  FELIX WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND BECAME A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. 
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC WHERE THEY DISSIPATED
ON 9 SEPTEMBER.

MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 130 DEATHS IN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGE IN THE
LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS.  ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGE ON
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

GABRIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT
FORMED ON 3 SEPTEMBER. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS LOW MOVED
SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND BERMUDA. THE LOW BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE ON 7 SEPTEMBER AND
BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 415 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AS GABRIELLE MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD IT CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GABRIELLE STRENGTHENED
EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH WHILE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW
HOURS LATER...THE TROPICAL STORM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE
LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. AFTER LANDFALL GABRIELLE TURNED
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR. GABRIELLE MOVED BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...EXITING
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR KILL DEVIL HILLS EARLY ON 10
SEPTEMBER...AND THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A FEW HOURS
LATER. THE NEXT DAY THE CIRCULATION BECAME ILL-DEFINED AND THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WAS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL
AREA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT...AND OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM GABRIELLE IN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE MINIMAL. 

HUMBERTO FORMED FROM THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON 5 SEPTEMBER.  THE WESTERN END OF THE
TROUGH MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WAS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON 11 SEPTEMBER.  EARLY
THE NEXT DAY...THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INCREASED NEAR THE TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.  THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM A FEW HOURS LATER AS
IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  HUMBERTO TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...STRENGTHENING
INTO A HURRICANE ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EARLY ON
13 SEPTEMBER.  THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND NEAR 0700 UTC THAT DAY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 MPH.
HUMBERTO MOVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON 13 SEPTEMBER
ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.  THE STORM
SOON BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND
DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON 14 SEPTEMBER.  ONE FATALITY
IS DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HUMBERTO AND DAMAGE IS ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 MILLION DOLLARS.

INGRID DEVELOPED FROM A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 6 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WAS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND IT WAS NOT
UNTIL 9 SEPTEMBER THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BECAME PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW CENTER ON 11 SEPTEMBER. BY
THE EARLY MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...WHEN THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT
1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SYSTEM FINALLY
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. DESPITE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...THE
CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE
CENTERED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 MPH LATE THAT DAY. DURING THE MORNING
OF 14 SEPTEMBER...THE SHEAR INCREASED AND INGRID WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AROUND 1800 UTC ON 15 SEPTEMBER. THE STRONG
SHEAR PERSISTED AND INGRID DEGENERATED TO A BROAD REMNANT LOW EARLY
ON 17 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED IN PART FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST ON 17
SEPTEMBER.  ON 18 SEPTEMBER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMED OVER
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING OVER OVER THE BAHAMAS.  THESE FEATURES
COMBINED TO PRODUCE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER THAT DAY.  THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING 19-20 SEPTEMBER.  ON 21
SEPTEMBER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED THAT DAY ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.  THE SYSTEM GAINED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER THAT DAY AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS
IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...BUT ITS MAXIMUM WINDS NEVER EXCEEDED 35
MPH.  THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0000 UTC 22 SEPTEMBER NEAR
FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...AND IT DISSIPATED ABOUT SIX HOURS
LATER.  IMPACTS IN THE AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION WERE
MINIMAL.

JERRY FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES EARLY ON 23 SEPTEMBER. IT BEGAN
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS WELL-INVOLVED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH. JERRY ACQUIRED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH.
JERRY WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT
ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND IT DISSIPATED NEAR THE END OF THAT DAY WHEN IT LOST ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION. BY THEN THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 800 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

KAREN FORMED EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 21 SEPTEMBER. 
AFTER FORMATION...THE CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.  KAREN MOVED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENED TO HURRICANE INTENSITY ON
26 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY...HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CAUSED KAREN TO BEGIN WEAKENING.  AS THE SHEAR INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED.  KAREN EVENTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION ON 29
SEPTEMBER AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A REMNANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS LINGERED
NEAR AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.  ALTHOUGH
KAREN WAS DESIGNATED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OPERATIONALLY...IT
WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT
AND SATELLITE DATA. 

LORENZO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 25 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY...BUT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED ON 27
SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TUXPAN AND A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY. LORENZO'S PEAK WINDS REACHED
80 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH
75 MPH WINDS NEAR 0500 UTC 28 SEPTEMBER NEAR TECOLUTLA
MEXICO...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. LORENZO WEAKENED
RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
INDICATES THAT SIX DEATHS WERE ATTRIBUTABLE TO LORENZO.

MELISSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA ON
26 SEPTEMBER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED THE NEXT DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW ABRUPTLY INCREASED EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER...
AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY ABOUT
115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WHILE INCHING WESTWARD...AND
IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 29 SEPTEMBER...MAINTAINING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ABOUT A DAY. THE STORM WEAKENED TO A
DEPRESSION ON 30 SEPTEMBER WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHILE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN BECAME INTERMITTENT...
AND LATER THAT DAY THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW
ABOUT 545 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
FIRST SEEN TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON 4 OCTOBER.
THE AREA REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ON 8 OCTOBER.  THE LOW BEGAN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON 9 OCTOBER...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 11 OCTOBER ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 
STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE DEPRESSION TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 910 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA.  THE LOW MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ON 13 OCTOBER...THEN TURNED
NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 14 OCTOBER.  IT
BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE ON 16 OCTOBER ABOUT 285 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  THE LOW WAS ABSORBED BY A
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH
OF THE AZORES.

NOEL FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEPARTED THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA ON 16 OCTOBER.  AS THIS WAVE APPROACHED THE LESSER
ANTILLES...INTERACTIONS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A
SURFACE TROUGH LYING JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LATE ON 23
OCTOBER...ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  THE LOW MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE LOW DECREASED ON THE 27 OCTOBER...RESULTING IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 28 OCTOBER...ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.  THE DEPRESSION TURNED
NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. NOEL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI EARLY
ON 29 OCTOBER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECAME DISRUPTED OVER
HAITI AND THE CENTER REFORMED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA A FEW HOURS LATER.  AFTER THE CENTER REFORMED...NOEL
MOVED WESTWARD AND MADE ANOTHER LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA EARLY ON
30 OCTOBER.  NOEL SPENT A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER EASTERN
CUBA BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON 31 OCTOBER.  IT
MEANDERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. NOEL BEGAN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON 1 NOVEMBER...AND REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 0000 UTC 2 NOVEMBER AS IT EXITED THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.  NOEL CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECAME AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 0000 UTC 3 NOVEMBER ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
STRENGTHENED A LITTLE BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND PASSING ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND MASSACHUSETTS LATE ON 3
NOVEMBER.  THE CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL NEAR YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA JUST
AFTER 0600 UTC 4 NOVEMBER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75 MPH.  THE LOW
GRADUALLY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MERGED
WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF GREENLAND EARLY ON
6 NOVEMBER.
 
MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NOEL PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS.  NOEL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AT
LEAST 147 DEATHS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 42 PERSONS MISSING AS OF THIS WRITING.  THE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRODUCED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND CANADA.  THESE WINDS DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES
THAT CAUSED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.  THE LOW ALSO PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND WAVE ACTION THAT WASHED OUT
COASTAL ROADS IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME              DATES       MAX WIND   DEATHS   U.S. DAMAGE
                                MPH                $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
STS ANDREA        9-11 MAY       60         0        MINOR
TS BARRY          1- 2 JUN       60         0        MINOR
TS CHANTAL      31 JUL-1 AUG     50         0          0
H DEAN           13-23 AUG      165        40          0
TS ERIN          15-19 AUG       40        16          *
H FELIX         31 AUG-5 SEP    165       130          0
TS GABRIELLE      8-11 SEP       60         0          0
H HUMBERTO       12-14 SEP       90         1         50
TS INGRID        12-17 SEP       45         0          0
TD TEN           21-22 SEP       35         0          0
TS JERRY         23-24 SEP       40         0          0
H KAREN          25-29 SEP       75         0          0
H LORENZO        25-28 SEP       80         6          0
TS MELISSA       28-30 SEP       40         0          0
TD FIFTEEN       11-12 OCT       30         0          0
H NOEL          28 OCT-2 NOV     80       147          0
--------------------------------------------------------------
*UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)

$$

HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT