000
AXNT20 KNHC 221752
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 04N10E and extends to
04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 09N between 15W 
and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or
weaker E winds and moderate seas across the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the United States will lead 
to moderate mainly E winds through mid-week. Winds will then veer 
southerly ahead of a cold front that should move off the Texas 
coast Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Haiti to just south of Jamaica to the
coast of Honduras. A surface trough has been analyzed over the
Mona Passage. Farther south, the eastern extension of the East
Pacific Monsoon Trough runs across the far SW Caribbean to a 1010
mb low in northern Colombia. The interactions between these
features is leading to scattered moderate convection in the
central and SW Caribbean, generally south of 17N between 70W and
82W.

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the central 
United States and the aforementioned front support moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line extending from 
Haiti to the border of Panama and Colombia. Locally strong winds
are observed via recent scatterometer data in areas of convection. 
The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the SW Caribbean
S of 15N. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are present in the SE
Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. 
Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across 
the western Caribbean later today behind a cold front stalling 
from Haiti to Honduras. The front should dissipate tonight, but 
locally strong NE winds may continue to pulse in the Windward 
Passage early this week. High pressure will build over eastern 
Mexico this week, and low pressure over northern Colombia will 
strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient between these 
features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across
much of the basin Mon night through Tue night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W southwestward to the northern
coast of Haiti. A trough is noted to the east, from 31N58W to 
eastern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isoalted thunderstorms 
are occurring in the vicinity of the trough. A second cold front 
extends from 31N66W to 28N80W, and moderate N to NE winds are 
noted behind both fronts. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 
a robust subtropical ridge stemming from a 1044 mb high 
positioned NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics 
support fresh to strong E to NE winds across much of the Atlantic
E of 35W and N of 18N. Rough seas are found in these waters, 
peaking near 12-13 ft north of the Canary Islands. Farther south,
moderate to locally fresh E trade winds and moderate seas are 
present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, south of 18N. In 
the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front from 31N59W to Haiti will
move E into mid-week, then slowly dissipate over southeastern 
waters. High pressure building behind the front will lead to 
increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough 
seas likely Mon night into mid-week, before the frontal boundary 
dissipates. 

$$
Adams