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Ernest Pons

Universitat de Barcelona, AQR-IREA, Faculty Member

Universitat de Barcelona, Econometria, Estadística, i Economia Espanyola, Faculty Member

Universitat de Barcelona, Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada, Faculty Member

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Interested on teaching and learning. Phd in Economics and Msc in Education and ICT. Now dedicated to teaching in statistics, econometrics and time series. In addition, research on social dimension of universities and students' living conditions.
Address: Avda. Diagonal 690 08034, Barcelona

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Papers by Ernest Pons

Modelo Predictivo De Persistencia Universitaria: Alumnado Con Beca Salario

Educación XX1, 2017

vanesa berlanga silvente, maría pilar figuera gazo y ernest pons fanals modelo predictivo de pers... more

L'educador d'adults. Aproximació a la seva dinàmica i funcionalitat

Educació i Cultura: revista mallorquina de Pedagogia, 1989

Los estudiantes universitarios hoy

Desigualdad y Universidad : la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida y de Participación de los estudiantes universitarios en España

G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaj... more G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaje; Base: Total muestra Gráfico 3.2. Nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por los padres de los estudiantes y el de las hombres de su generación. G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaje; Base: Total muestra

Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy

Tourism Economics

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and econom... more This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.

Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy

by Ernest Pons, José Garcia, and Esther Vayá Valcarce

Tourism Economics, 2023

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and econom... more This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input-output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.

Acceso a la universidad y crisis económica

Revista Del Congres Internacional De Docencia Universitaria I Innovacio, Mar 11, 2015

Effect of Social Background on Graduation Rates

INTED2019 Proceedings, 2019

La formación del profesorado novel: una carrera de fondo

La docencia universitaria es la unica que no requiere legalmente formacion especifica para ejerce... more La docencia universitaria es la unica que no requiere legalmente formacion especifica para ejercerla. Este trabajo se basa en una experiencia de formacion: el postgrado de Iniciacion a la Docencia de la Universidad de Barcelona entre 2002 y 2007. Hemos recogido opiniones, reflexiones y valoraciones de los noveles, para analizar cual es la situacion actual del profesorado novel en las universidades espanolas y hasta que punto les es necesaria una formacion especifica. A partir de ahi, planteamos una serie de preguntas sobre la necesidad de una formacion especifica para noveles, su compatibilidad con la investigacion, el papel del mentor, o la implicacion de las universidades en dicha formacion.

El contexto local y global y el marco institucional de la Educación Superior

Manual de docencia universitaria, 2020, ISBN 978-84-18348-10-5, págs. 31-44, 2020

La valoración que hacen los estudiantes de su experiencia universitaria

Wer are involved in Spain in an extensive process of modification of qualifications. And today we... more Wer are involved in Spain in an extensive process of modification of qualifications. And today we can see a process of gradual diversification of student profiles. In this context is more relevanre than ever to know the perception that students have about their university experience. The objective of this work is to progress in four directions: 1) to identify learning and teaching activities predominate in the academic life of students as well as the degree of usefulness attributed to them, 2) study the perceptions of students on activities that are prioritized by the University, 3) review student opinion regarding the contribution of universities to their personal development and learning of transferable skills, 4) know the valuation made by students of their college experience as well as associated future expectations, and 5) know to what extent would repeat their choice of university and studies.

Ejes para la mejora docente en la universidad

Memoria Larga y Persistencia en Las Tasas De Inflación en España

Student drop outs at Catalan universities

This study focuses on the aforementioned problematic issues of combining theoretical review with ... more This study focuses on the aforementioned problematic issues of combining theoretical review with field research while, at the same time, it provides references, strategies and tools for intervention. The study deals with the subject of the university drop out, which, in spite of not being a new problem, takes on greater dimensions when extended to the access to university studies. Behind this problem there is the economic cost of university available to a majority and the deficient use of resources, as well as the problems of discourage of those who wanted to be educated but did not see their expectations satisfied, or of those that have not been properly orientated or reorientated towards professional training to which they could aspire to obtain. The importance of this document it is not so much to identify the problem of dropping out with more clarity but to suggest some actions and to listen to the opinions of those that are part of this phenomenon. Therefore, several proposals ...

Transició de secundaria a la universitat: Com fer un camí segur

Business and Consumer Expectations: Are They Useful for Forecasting?

Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about diffe... more Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about different economic variables. While the fast availability of the results and the wide range of variables covered made them very useful for monitoring the current status of the economy, there is no consensus on their utility for forecasting macroeconomic developments. The objective of the paper is to analyse the possibility of improving the forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables for the euro area using the information provided by these surveys. The strategy to test if these indicators provide useful information to improve forecasts of the macroeconomic variables has been the following. First, five different sets of models have been considered (AR, ARIMA, SETAR, Markov switching regime models and VAR) to obtain forecasts for the different quantitative variables and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) has been computed for different forecast horizons. Next, information from surveys has been considered to forecast the quantitative variables using four different types of models (autoregressive, VAR models, Markov Switching Regime models and leading indicators models) and different quantification methods (the balance, a principal components based procedure, the Anderson procedure, the Carlson-Parkin and Augmented Carlson-Parkin methods and State-Space models). When comparing the performance of the models that include information from the survey to the ones that do not, the conclusion seems to be that in many cases some models that include information from the survey obtain lower RMSE than the best model without survey information. In this sense, the obtained results confirm and extend the results of previous research that have considered information from Business and Consumer Surveys to explain the behaviour of macroeconomic variables. The results presented here were obtained under the contract &quot; Forecasting models currently applied to indicators computed on the basis of surveys results &quot; (ECFIN/2002/A3-01), directed by Manuel Artís and Jordi Suriñach. We would like to thank the European Commission and specially Peter Weiss and Pilar Bengoechea for their helpful comments and support. The usual disclaimer applies.

Impact of the "salary scholarship" impact profile and student achievement

RELIEVE - Revista Electrónica de Investigación y Evaluación Educativa, 2014

Incidencia de la beca salario: impacto, perfil y rendimiento de los estudiantes

RELIEVE - Revista Electrónica de Investigación y Evaluación Educativa, 2014

Textos sobre innovación docente en el ámbito del análisis de datos en economía y empresa

Sistemes i subsistemes urbans a la província de Barcelona

Modelo Predictivo De Persistencia Universitaria: Alumnado Con Beca Salario

Educación XX1, 2017

vanesa berlanga silvente, maría pilar figuera gazo y ernest pons fanals modelo predictivo de pers... more

L'educador d'adults. Aproximació a la seva dinàmica i funcionalitat

Educació i Cultura: revista mallorquina de Pedagogia, 1989

Los estudiantes universitarios hoy

Desigualdad y Universidad : la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida y de Participación de los estudiantes universitarios en España

G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaj... more G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaje; Base: Total muestra Gráfico 3.2. Nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por los padres de los estudiantes y el de las hombres de su generación. G. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más elevado alcanzado por tu padre y tu madre? Unidad: Porcentaje; Base: Total muestra

Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy

Tourism Economics

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and econom... more This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.

Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy

by Ernest Pons, José Garcia, and Esther Vayá Valcarce

Tourism Economics, 2023

This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and econom... more This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input-output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.

Acceso a la universidad y crisis económica

Revista Del Congres Internacional De Docencia Universitaria I Innovacio, Mar 11, 2015

Effect of Social Background on Graduation Rates

INTED2019 Proceedings, 2019

La formación del profesorado novel: una carrera de fondo

La docencia universitaria es la unica que no requiere legalmente formacion especifica para ejerce... more La docencia universitaria es la unica que no requiere legalmente formacion especifica para ejercerla. Este trabajo se basa en una experiencia de formacion: el postgrado de Iniciacion a la Docencia de la Universidad de Barcelona entre 2002 y 2007. Hemos recogido opiniones, reflexiones y valoraciones de los noveles, para analizar cual es la situacion actual del profesorado novel en las universidades espanolas y hasta que punto les es necesaria una formacion especifica. A partir de ahi, planteamos una serie de preguntas sobre la necesidad de una formacion especifica para noveles, su compatibilidad con la investigacion, el papel del mentor, o la implicacion de las universidades en dicha formacion.

El contexto local y global y el marco institucional de la Educación Superior

Manual de docencia universitaria, 2020, ISBN 978-84-18348-10-5, págs. 31-44, 2020

La valoración que hacen los estudiantes de su experiencia universitaria

Wer are involved in Spain in an extensive process of modification of qualifications. And today we... more Wer are involved in Spain in an extensive process of modification of qualifications. And today we can see a process of gradual diversification of student profiles. In this context is more relevanre than ever to know the perception that students have about their university experience. The objective of this work is to progress in four directions: 1) to identify learning and teaching activities predominate in the academic life of students as well as the degree of usefulness attributed to them, 2) study the perceptions of students on activities that are prioritized by the University, 3) review student opinion regarding the contribution of universities to their personal development and learning of transferable skills, 4) know the valuation made by students of their college experience as well as associated future expectations, and 5) know to what extent would repeat their choice of university and studies.

Ejes para la mejora docente en la universidad

Memoria Larga y Persistencia en Las Tasas De Inflación en España

Student drop outs at Catalan universities

This study focuses on the aforementioned problematic issues of combining theoretical review with ... more This study focuses on the aforementioned problematic issues of combining theoretical review with field research while, at the same time, it provides references, strategies and tools for intervention. The study deals with the subject of the university drop out, which, in spite of not being a new problem, takes on greater dimensions when extended to the access to university studies. Behind this problem there is the economic cost of university available to a majority and the deficient use of resources, as well as the problems of discourage of those who wanted to be educated but did not see their expectations satisfied, or of those that have not been properly orientated or reorientated towards professional training to which they could aspire to obtain. The importance of this document it is not so much to identify the problem of dropping out with more clarity but to suggest some actions and to listen to the opinions of those that are part of this phenomenon. Therefore, several proposals ...

Transició de secundaria a la universitat: Com fer un camí segur

Business and Consumer Expectations: Are They Useful for Forecasting?

Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about diffe... more Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about different economic variables. While the fast availability of the results and the wide range of variables covered made them very useful for monitoring the current status of the economy, there is no consensus on their utility for forecasting macroeconomic developments. The objective of the paper is to analyse the possibility of improving the forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and other macroeconomic variables for the euro area using the information provided by these surveys. The strategy to test if these indicators provide useful information to improve forecasts of the macroeconomic variables has been the following. First, five different sets of models have been considered (AR, ARIMA, SETAR, Markov switching regime models and VAR) to obtain forecasts for the different quantitative variables and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) has been computed for different forecast horizons. Next, information from surveys has been considered to forecast the quantitative variables using four different types of models (autoregressive, VAR models, Markov Switching Regime models and leading indicators models) and different quantification methods (the balance, a principal components based procedure, the Anderson procedure, the Carlson-Parkin and Augmented Carlson-Parkin methods and State-Space models). When comparing the performance of the models that include information from the survey to the ones that do not, the conclusion seems to be that in many cases some models that include information from the survey obtain lower RMSE than the best model without survey information. In this sense, the obtained results confirm and extend the results of previous research that have considered information from Business and Consumer Surveys to explain the behaviour of macroeconomic variables. The results presented here were obtained under the contract &quot; Forecasting models currently applied to indicators computed on the basis of surveys results &quot; (ECFIN/2002/A3-01), directed by Manuel Artís and Jordi Suriñach. We would like to thank the European Commission and specially Peter Weiss and Pilar Bengoechea for their helpful comments and support. The usual disclaimer applies.

Impact of the "salary scholarship" impact profile and student achievement

RELIEVE - Revista Electrónica de Investigación y Evaluación Educativa, 2014

Incidencia de la beca salario: impacto, perfil y rendimiento de los estudiantes

RELIEVE - Revista Electrónica de Investigación y Evaluación Educativa, 2014

Textos sobre innovación docente en el ámbito del análisis de datos en economía y empresa

Sistemes i subsistemes urbans a la província de Barcelona

¿Universidad sin clases? Condiciones de vida de los estudiantes universitarios en España (Eurostudent IV). Capítulo 7: Procedencia Sociofamiliar

by Lucila Finkel, Antonio Ariño Villarroya, and Ernest Pons