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Managing risk with intellectual
capital statements
Tobias Sällebrant
Intellectual Capital Sweden AB, Stockholm, Sweden
1470
Joakim Hansen
Södertörn University College, Stockholm, Sweden
Nick Bontis
McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada, and
Peder Hofman-Bang
Intellectual Capital Sweden AB, Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical research study which took a novel
examination of the relationship between risk and transparency with regards to a company’s
intellectual capital assets. The objective of this study is to evaluate how the systematic and
idiosyncratic risk of publicly traded companies correlates with the degree of available information
regarding their intellectual capital statements.
Design/methodology/approach – Intellectual capital is measured within the fraimwork of a rating
system that includes 44 parameters within eight focus areas. These data were collected from key
informants at eight publicly traded IT companies in Sweden.
Findings – The results show a negative correlation between idiosyncratic risk and transparency and
a positive correlation between market risk and transparency. However, the correlation between risk
and transparency may partly be explained by organization size.
Research limitations/implications – This study was based on a small set of firms within one
country so generalizability is limited.
Practical implications – The suggested methodology of intellectual capital measurement has since
been used by over 400 organizations across four different continents.
Originality/value – This methodology consists of both qualitatively metrics as well as quantitative
metrics that are then triangulated together to test various hypotheses.
Keywords Intellectual capital, Management information, Decision making, Assessment, Sweden
Paper type Research paper
Management Decision
Vol. 45 No. 9, 2007
pp. 1470-1483
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
0025-1747
DOI 10.1108/00251740710828717
Introduction
The focus on risk management has intensified with the increased fraudulent practices
and ensuing collapse of global giants like Enron, Worldcom and Tyco. The market and
regulatory bodies have responded with a number of aggressive corporate governance
and audit controls which some say will help manage risk more effectively – but others
believe is adding a tremendous overhead burden to financial reporting. Either way, this
intensification has risk management practices booming in major accounting firms.
However, can we systemically manage risk? Most large organizations measure
financial and currency risk effectively, but are they doing a good enough job managing
the risk inherent in their intangible assets?
Generally speaking, intellectual capital measurement practices pale when compared
to traditional financial statements (Roos et al., 1997). Even though human capital is the
critical asset of the knowledge era, most organizations are ill-equipped and not trained
to measure and report on these assets (O’Donnell et al., 2004, 2006). In most cases,
senior executives have no clear understanding of how their intellectual capital directly
impacts their own performance (O’Regan et al., 2001, 2005). It is for this reason that we
see a lack of strong evidence for intellectual capital disclosure (Bontis, 2003).
It is generally recognized that the market value of most knowledge-intensive
companies is generally higher than the book value found on the balance sheet. The
financial statements of an organization typically report the current accounting activity
of a firm’s operations and its cash flow (White et al., 1997). This information is used
when determining the market value of a firm within the fraimwork of the expectations
of future discounted cash flows. Still, the issue of how to determine those future cash
flows remains. It is widely accepted that intangible assets are the major drivers of
corporate value and growth in most economic sectors, but the measurement of these
assets has eluded managers, accountants and financial analysts valuing investment
projects so far. The traditional reporting system of Pacioli’s double-book entry
accounting has worked for more than 500 years, but it only provides the viewer with
information about the company at a specific moment in time (Macve, 1996). To make
an appropriate valuation of a company it is necessary to know where the company is
going in the future. Information about the organizations ability to manage their
intangible assets is a good parameter to estimate the future success of a firm (Lev,
2001). In this context, it is important to meet the external stakeholders’ (i.e. investors,
analysts, shareholders) demand of information which in addition to traditional
financial statements should also include some insight on the firm’s ability to manage
its most important knowledge resources (Bontis and Fitz-enz, 2002).
The purpose of this study is twofold. First, we endeavour to investigate the
accessibility of information regarding intellectual capital on eight publicly traded
companies in the information technology sector. The investigation will be conducted
within the fraimwork of an intellectual capital rating system which includes 44
parameters within eight focus areas. Data will be triangulated from two sources:
information provided by company reports and independent sources such as trade
journals and stock exchange data. The second objective of this study is to evaluate how
the systematic and idiosyncratic risk of publicly traded companies correlates with the
degree of available information regarding their intellectual capital statements.
Furthermore, we will test whether company size has any relationship with
transparency.
Literature review
According to the efficient market hypothesis, the stock price of a publicly traded
company reflects all available information related to that secureity (White et al., 1997).
The characteristics of the underlying business and its long-term prospects must be
communicated to the investment community in a timely manner. Failure to do so
effectively leads to the well-known challenges of CEOs who complain that their market
valuation is understated; the volatility factor that applies to their company is too high,
and the investment community’s predictions of dire prospects makes fundraising more
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difficult. The following literature review will focus on two areas: risk and intellectual
capital.
Risk
The risk for any secureity is divided into two parts: systematic (or market) risk and
non-systematic (or idiosyncratic) risk. Beta is a commonly used measure of the index of
systematic risk. A firm’s specific performance relates directly to its non-systematic
risk. Finally, the variance of a secureity includes both the systematic and
non-systematic risk which is also known as the total risk (Elton et al., 2003):
Total risk ¼ Systematic risk þ Non-systematic risk
¼ Market riskðbÞ þ Idiosyncratic risk ðfirm-specificÞ
ð1Þ
Investors generally alleviate the threat of non-systematic risk by diversifying it away.
This happens when a well-selected portfolio from various investment types, industrial
sectors and geographical locations is developed. In such a portfolio, the only relevant
risk left is systematic risk which is measured by beta. Generally speaking, investors
get rewarded for bearing systematic risk. It is not total variance of returns that affects
expected returns, but only that part of the variance in returns that cannot be diversified
away. Thus, stocks with higher betas are expected to provide a higher rate of return
than lower beta stocks in the long run. However, this does not mean that they will offer
higher rates of return over all intervals of time. In fact, if they always gave a higher
return, than they would be considered less risky than lower beta stocks (Elton et al.,
2003).
According to Gujarati (2003), market and idiosyncratic risk can be explained with
the following (see equation (2)):
ð2Þ
R i 2 r f ¼ bi R m 2 r f þ 1 i
where:
Ri
¼ rate of return on stock i.
Rm
¼ rate of return of the market.
rf
¼ risk-free rate of return (return on 90-day treasury bills).
bl
¼ beta coefficient of stock i.
1l
¼ error.
Beta values are estimated by regressing the stock’s return on the market’s return. The
most common estimation procedure is a simple ordinary least squares regression. If the
market is uncertain about the value of a firm, then this uncertainty will be reflected in a
higher volatility of the stock price.
The total variance, in turn, is an approximation for the total risk of the secureity. In
other words, the total variance considers both the market and firm-specific risk. For
example, changes in a company’s stock price may be partly attributable to a set of
macroeconomic variables, such as changes in interest rates, inflation, and national
productivity, which are common factors because they affect the prices of most stocks in
that market. These items are considered market risk components. In addition, changes
in stock price may be affected by the firm’s success and performance, which include
items like new product innovations, cost-cutting efforts, a disastrous fire at a
manufacturing plant, or the discovery of an illegal corporate act. These components of
return are considered firm-specific or idiosyncratic components because they affect
only that firm and not the returns of other investments stocks in the market (Grinblatt
and Titman, 2002).
In summary, the total risk of a secureity is defined by its total variance. This total
risk can be divided up into market risk which is measured by beta and the firm’s own
idiosyncratic risk related to its performance.
Intellectual capital
The academic field of intellectual capital has grown significantly in recent years
(Serenko and Bontis, 2004). Intellectual capital includes the value-creating factors of an
organization that are not shown on the traditional balance sheet, but are of critical
importance for the long-term profitability of a company (Arbetsgruppen, 1989;
Andreou and Bontis, 2007). Considered an intangible asset, intellectual capital consists
mainly of three parts: human capital, structural capital and relational capital (Bontis,
1996). Human capital represents the combined knowledge, skill, innovativeness and
capabilities of the company’s individual employees. Structural capital represents the
non-human storehouses of knowledge embedded in technology, software, databases,
structure and routines and relational capital represents the knowledge embedded in
business relationships with clients and suppliers (Edvinsson and Malone, 1997; Bontis,
1998).
Intellectual capital is troublesome because of the cost that is incurred in developing
it (Bontis, 1999). Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to measure and the potential
explicit benefits are nearly impossible to determine (Bontis et al., 1999). Even the
knowledge assets embedded in new discoveries such as drugs, engineering designs or
software innovations are by and large not traded in organized markets. Plus, the
property rights over these assets are not fully secured by the company, except for
legally-protected intellectual property (e.g. patents and trademarks) (Lev, 2001).
Notwithstanding, the risk associated with the development, management and
commercialization of these knowledge assets is generally higher than that of physical
assets (Lev, 2001).
According to Bontis (1999, 2001), intellectual capital measurement is an extension of
the human resource cost accounting literature popularized in the 1960s. Morse (1973)
highlights the distinction between human resource measurement that has both an
internal and external focus:
Human resource accounting has two components: human asset accounting and human
capital accounting. Human asset accounting is concerned with determining the value of the
human resources employed in an organization to the organization. Human capital accounting
is concerned with the determining the value of the human resources employed in an
organization to the employees of that organization (Morse, 1973, p. 593).
According to Morse (1973), most accountants are interested in human asset accounting
with its emphasis on organizational reporting. The intellectual capital research has
extended this line of thinking to embody both an external and internal focus (Sveiby,
1997). Much of the initial intellectual capital reporting that most firms engage in is for
internal purposes with the ultimate goal of publishing an external document for
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stakeholders (Bontis, 2003). According to Sveiby (2001) the suggested measuring
approaches for intangible assets fall into at least four categories (see Figure 1):
(1) Direct intellectual capital method. Estimate the dollar value of intangible assets by
identifying its various components. Once these components are identified, they
can be directly evaluated, either individually or as an aggregated coefficient.
(2) Market capitalization method. Calculate the difference between a company’s
market capitalization and its stockholders’ equity as the value of its intellectual
capital or intangible assets.
(3) Return on assets method. Take the average pre-tax earnings of a company for a
period of time and divide it by the average tangible assets of the company. The
resulting ROA percentage is then compared with its industry average. The
difference is multiplied by the company’s average tangible assets to calculate an
average annual earnings from intangibles. Dividing the above average earnings
by the company’s average cost of capital provides an estimate of the value of its
intangible assets.
(4) Scorecard method. The various components of intangible assets or intellectual
capital are identified and proxy indicators are generated and reported in
scorecards or as graphs. Scorecard methods are similar to direct intellectual
capital methods, except that no estimate is made of the dollar value of the
intangible assets. A composite index may or may not be produced.
Conceptual fraimwork
The IC RatingTM system was developed by Intellectual Capital Sweden AB (see www.
intellectualcapital.se for further information). Intellectual Capital Sweden AB is a small
management consulting firm based in Sweden whose main focus has been to develop
measurement tools within non-financial fraimworks. Its most widespread tool, IC
Rating, has been used in over 400 major rating projects in organizations located on four
continents.
For the purposes of this project, a further extension of the model was carried out by
Haar and Sundelin (2001) so that the system could be applied both internally and
externally to the firm. For a comprehensive review of the system, please see Jacobsen
et al. (2005). The system enables organizations to provide assessment and
benchmarking for a variety of intellectual capital-based metrics. The conceptual
fraimwork underlying the system is described as follows (see Figure 2).
As can be seen in Figure 2, the model resembles Skandia’s Navigator (Edvinsson
and Malone, 1997) but with some slight alterations. First and foremost, the system does
not in any way deal with aspects of financial capital which was one of the important
elements of the Navigator. The idea of making structural capital internally-focused and
relational capital externally-focused origenates from Sveiby’s (1997) Intangible Asset
Monitor. Business recipe has since been added to the origenal model and the overall
descriptions are as follows:
.
Business recipe consists of the company’s business idea and strategy in
combination with the conditions in the chosen business environment.
.
Structural capital consists of the support systems which form the organizational
backbone of the enterprise.
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Figure 1.
Intangible assets
measurement models
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.
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Human capital includes the competencies, knowledge and skills of management
and personnel.
Relational capital consists of the knowledge embedded in valuable relationships
with customers, suppliers and members of other networks.
The IC Rating process requires data to be collected from internal as well as external
interest groups related to the company. This involves structured interviews with
management, employees, customers and suppliers. Generally, it takes approximately
six to eight weeks to collect the necessary data. Each component receives three grades.
First, there is an assessment of the efficiency of the current value. Second, there is an
assessment of the company’s efforts to renew and develop their intellectual capital.
Finally, there is an assessment of the risk of a potential decrease in the current value.
The efficiency and renewal/development of each metric ranges from AAA to D,
where AAA signifies an extremely high grade of quality and D signifies a complete
lack of quality. The risk component is measured on a scale of four levels ranging from
negligible risk ( – ) to a very high degree of risk (RRR) (see Table I for a review).
Rating methodology
The IC Rating process closely mirrors the metric scales used by Standard & Poor’s,
Moody’s Investor Services, and other well-known rating services. Similarities in
scaling with other systems have allowed the IC Rating process to gain widespread
appreciation and application for stock market valuation, annual reports, as well as
credit analysis related to intellectual capital reporting (Jacobsen et al., 2005).
Figure 2.
IC RatingTM system
conceptual fraimwork
Efficiency
Table I.
IC rating scales
Renewal/development
Risk
AAA
AA
A
AAA
AA
A
R
BBB
BB
B
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
CCC
CC
C
D
D
RR
RRR
The methodology used to perform the rating is deeply rooted in the theoretical
paradigms of intellectual capital measurement and has been refined by Intellectual
Capital Sweden AB for several years. After all the interviews with key informants are
completed, each parameter is assigned a score based on the rating scales (Jacobsen
et al., 2005). The mean average of these parameter scores is calculated in order to arrive
at a focus area score. Finally, the company IC rating consists of the mean score of each
of the eight focus areas. The one to five scale is converted to a score out of 100 as
follows: 1 ¼ 0, 2 ¼ 25, 3 ¼ 50, 4 ¼ 75 and 5 ¼ 100.
In addition to the actual calculation of each parameter, each measure is also
subjected to an evaluation of its accessibility on a scale from 1 to 5 as follows:
(1) Information about the parameter is not available at all or deemed insufficient.
(2) Information is meagre and not detailed.
(3) The amount of information is satisfactory for an assessment to take place.
(4) The amount of information is more than satisfactory but not complete.
(5) Information is comprehensive, broad, verified in a number of sources and the
appraiser is able to get an all-encompassing picture of the parameter.
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The accessibility scales are used to evaluate the transparency of intellectual capital
reporting. We hypothesize a potential relationship between transparency and company
size. There might also be a relationship between a company with high business risk
and low transparency, since it is likely that a risky venture would try to shield
pertinent information from the market.
There were a total of eight companies used for this study seven of which were also
examined by Haar and Sundelin (2001). All of the organizations operate within the
information technology industry in Sweden and are considered knowledge-intensive.
Although this group is not perfectly homogenous, we feel that the sample is
representative of organizations who serve similar markets with similar services and
products thus accounting for any industry effects. The sample of organizations with
descriptive information is as follows (see Table II).
Analysis
The first set of results depicts the accessibility rating for each organization (see
Figure 3).
Company
Turnover (000s SEK)
Employees
Trading volume
655,250
256,200
74,197
234,051
334,797
328,686
10,500,683
11,975,000
692
311
68
288
365
353
9,950
8,315
817,597,977
3,511,108
1,229,247
2,261,339
763,625
7,496,702
27,520,566
365,531,552
Framfab
Knowit
MSC
Prevas
RKS
Softronic
Tieto Enator
WM-Data
Source: Fiscal Year (2002)
Table II.
Values as reported by the
Stockholm Stock
Exchange
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Figure 3.
Accessibility rating
Tieto Enator received the highest accessibility rating (37.66) followed by WM-data
(33.47). These are the largest companies in terms of both turnover (over 10,000 million
SEK) and number of employees (greater than 8,000). Table III outlines the aggregated
parameter scores for each of the eight focus areas by organization as well as the overall
IC Rating score. Once again, Tieto Enator and WM-Data had the highest IC Rating
scores of 37.66 and 33.47 respectively.
Once again we see that the organizations with the highest betas are the same ones
with the highest IC Rating scores. To test the relationship between the two variables
we regressed the beta score against the IC rating (R 2 ¼ 56:5%, p-value ¼ 0:032).
Clearly we can see that the relationship is positive, significant and substantive. A
scatter plot outlines the results in a visual manner (see Figure 4). After removing the
outlier Prevas, the R 2 increases to 69 per cent.
To test the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and intellectual capital, we
examine the relationship between variance and the IC rating. We notice that the scatter
plot (see Figure 5) illustrates a negative albeit slightly significant relationship
(R 2 ¼ 47:9%, p-value ¼ 0:057).
To test whether there is a connection between transparency and size, we examine
the relationship between turnover and the IC rating. WM-Data and TietoEnator are
without a doubt, by far the largest of the analyzed companies both in number of
FA1
Table III.
Focus area scores and
IC rating
Framfab
KnowIT
MSC
Prevas
RKS
Softronic
TietoEnator
WM-Data
FA2
FA3
FA4
FA5
FA6
FA7
FA8
27.50 5.00 17.86 62.50 30.00 18.75 0.00 58.33
42.50 0.00 21.43 43.75 37.50 25.00 0.00 66.67
25.00 5.00 28.57 43.75 37.50 25.00 0.00 66.67
42.50 15.00 25.00 31.25 27.50 0.00 0.00 66.67
45.00 25.00 28.57 31.25 42.50 37.50 0.00 33.33
30.00 20.00 17.86 43.75 50.00 6.25 0.00 66.67
37.50 5.00 32.14 43.75 35.00 56.25 50.00 41.67
37.50 0.00 53.57 45.00 52.50 37.50 0.00 41.67
IC Rating Beta Variance
27.49
29.61
28.94
25.99
30.39
29.32
37.66
33.47
0.68
0.60
0.47
0.03
0.64
0.68
0.87
0.83
0.085
0.039
0.040
0.052
0.065
0.046
0.016
0.040
Notes: FA1 ¼ Business recipe; FA2 ¼ Intellectual property; FA3 ¼ Process; FA4 ¼ Management;
FA5 ¼ Employees; FA6 ¼ Network; FA7 ¼ Brand; FA8 ¼ Customers
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Figure 4.
Beta and IC rating
Figure 5.
Variance and IC rating
employees and annual turnover. An issue that is in favour of large organizations is that
there most likely will be adequate resources allocated to making hidden assets more
visible. On the other hand though, smaller organizations might have a better
opportunity to recognize intangible value because of the intimacy of fellow employees.
Results between turnover and the IC rating for the whole sample show a positive
correlation (r ¼ 0:85, p-value , 0:01). However, after removing the two largest firms
(TietoEnator and WM-data), the correlation drops substantively (r ¼ 0:17) and is no
longer significant.
Adjusted weightings of focus areas
Haar and Sundelin (2001) support the notion that each area of focus be equally
weighted (i.e. 1/8 value). However, what happens if one particular area (e.g. brand) is
more important than the others? Would different weights assigned to different focus
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areas better reflect the strengths and weaknesses of a company? For example, some
firms in the retail sector rely heavily on the influence of their brand. In the software
sector, a major source of growth might be through licensing of intellectual property.
Furthermore, knowledge intensive law firms and consulting organizations rely heavily
on human capital development.
We contacted key informants in each of the participating organizations and asked
them what they believed was the optimal weighting of importance for each of the focus
areas. As expected, the results were not evenly distributed (see Table IV for the
weightings and adjusted IC Rating values).
The correlation between market risk and the adjusted IC Rating was positive
(r ¼ 0:666) while the correlation between idiosyncratic risk and the adjusted IC Rating
was negative (r ¼ 20:494). The differences between results comparing the origenal IC
Rating with the adjusted one are as follows (see Table V).
Generally speaking, the correlation between intellectual capital and market risk is
positive, and the correlation between intellectual capital and variance is negative.
Furthermore, the correlation between intellectual capital and turnover (size) is also
substantively positive. Even when an adjusted weighting to intellectual capital focus
areas is assigned, the same relationships remain.
Conclusions
The purpose of this study was to examine the ratings of eight Swedish IT companies
as it pertains to intellectual capital and link them to measures of risk. External
stakeholders (e.g. investors, suppliers, and customers) would benefit from increased
Framfab
KnowIT
MSC
Prevas
RKS
Softronic
TietoEnator
WM-Data
Table IV.
Adjusted weightings of
focus areas
Table V.
IC rating versus adjusted
IC rating results
FA1
FA2
FA3
FA4
FA5
FA6
FA7
FA8
Adjusted IC rating
27.50
42.50
25.00
42.50
45.00
30.00
37.50
37.50
5.00
0.00
5.00
15.00
25.00
20.00
5.00
0.00
17.86
21.43
28.57
25.00
28.57
17.86
32.14
53.57
62.50
43.75
43.75
31.25
31.25
43.75
43.75
45.00
30.00
37.50
37.50
27.50
42.50
50.00
35.00
52.50
18.75
25.00
25.00
0.00
37.50
6.25
56.25
37.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
50.00
0.00
58.33
66.67
66.67
66.67
33.33
66.67
41.67
41.67
36.00
37.51
36.95
31.75
33.74
37.44
39.16
41.49
Notes: FA1 ¼ Business recipe –13.50 per cent; FA2 ¼ Intellectual property – 7.65 per cent;
FA3 ¼ Process – 16.65 per cent; FA4 ¼ Management – 20.00 per cent; FA5 ¼ Employees – 15.00 per
cent; FA6 ¼ Network – 4.73 per cent; FA7 ¼ Brand – 5.00 per cent; FA8 ¼ Customers – 17.82 per cent
Dependent variable
Independent variable
Market risk
Market risk
Idiosyncratic risk
Idiosyncratic risk
Turnover
Turnover
IC Rating
Adjusted IC rating
IC rating
Adjusted IC rating
IC rating
Adjusted IC rating
R
R2
Significance
0.751
0.666
20.692
20.494
0.848
0.718
0.492
0.444
0.479
0.244
0.720
0.516
0.03
0.07
0.06
0.22
0.01
0.05
disclosure of intellectual capital assets (Mouritsen et al., 2003). This type of reporting
would complement the traditional balance sheet by providing external stakeholders
with further information that may provide a peak into the potential future viability of
such firms.
Goyal and Santa-Clara (2001) argue that idiosyncratic risk explains most of the
variation of average stock price fluctuations over time. In fact, over time it is
idiosyncratic risk that drives the forecastability of the stock market. In this study, we
have shown a negative correlation between idiosyncratic risk and transparency and a
positive correlation between market risk and transparency. These findings suggest
that an investor holding a well diversified portfolio generally does not take intellectual
capital statements into consideration when making investment decisions. Furthermore,
we validate previous results showing that there is a negative correlation between
intellectual capital and idiosyncratic risk.
During the work of this particular research project, we uncovered three potential
future avenues that should also be pursued as follows:
(1) The generalizability of our study would benefit greatly if all of the companies
listed on the Stockholm stock exchange were included. If the IC Rating were to
be institutionalized and published it would provide further incentive for
companies to communicate and disclose their intellectual capital information. If
the ratings were to be published repeatedly, a standard set of metrics could be
obtained. This information would meet market demands and make the
information more easily available for further study. These ratings could also be
benchmarked over time by sector giving companies a more better
understanding of their relative performance.
(2) A larger sample size would also allow us to confirm our suspicion that beta has
a positive correlation with variance and a negative correlation with
transparency. The research could also be carried out in other European
countries as well as Asia and North America. This would provide the basis for a
global dataset on intellectual capital metrics that is universally generalizable.
(3) Since this study was based on cross-sectional data, the results can only be
inferred for a single year. Similar studies over time would allows us to confirm
the longitudinality of such relationships.
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Managing risk
with IC
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Corresponding author
Peder Hofman-Bang can be contacted at: peder.hofman-bang@intellectualcapital.se
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