2018 Arizona Secretary of State election
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| Turnout | 62.77%  [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Hobbs: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gaynor: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2018 Arizona Secretary of State election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Secretary of State of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Michele Reagan was first elected in 2014 and ran for re-election. She was defeated in the Republican primary by Steve Gaynor. State senator Katie Hobbs defeated Gaynor in the general election by a small margin, becoming the first Democratic Secretary of State since Richard Mahoney was elected in 1990.
The race was rated "Likely Republican" by Governing.com,[2] but this did not come to fruition as Katie Hobbs pulled off an upset win which, alongside Democrats' victory in the concurrent Senate election, established Arizona's role as a key battleground state.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Steve Gaynor, businessman[3][4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Michele Reagan, incumbent secretary of state[5][6]
Declined
[edit]- Steve Montenegro, former state senator and candidate for Arizona's 8th congressional district in 2018[7][8]
- Kevin Gibbons, home loan officer
Results
[edit]
Gaynor—50–60%
Gaynor—60–70%
Gaynor—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Gaynor | 414,332 | 66.69% | |
| Republican | Michele Reagan (incumbent) | 206,988 | 33.31% | |
| Total votes | 621,320 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Katie Hobbs, minority leader of the Arizona Senate[10][11]
Not on the ballot
[edit]Withdrew
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 465,668 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 465,668 | 100.0% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Governing[17] | Likely R | June 4, 2018 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Gaynor (R) |
Katie Hobbs (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Orbital (R)[18] | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 31% | 3% | 24% |
| OH Predictive Insights[19] | October 1–2, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
| Gravis Marketing[20] | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
| OH Predictive Insights[21] | September 5–6, 2018 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | – | 19% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Katie Hobbs | 1,176,384 | 50.43% | +2.65% | |
| Republican | Steve Gaynor | 1,156,132 | 49.56% | −2.66% | |
| Write-in | 169 | 0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,332,685 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By county
[edit]| County[1] | Katie Hobbs Democratic |
Steve Gaynor Republican |
Others | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 17,029 | 68.33 | 7,889 | 31.65 | 4 | 0.02 | 9,140 | 36.68 | 24,922 |
| Cochise | 18,721 | 41.66 | 26,204 | 58.31 | 17 | 0.04 | -7,483 | -16.65 | 44,942 |
| Coconino | 34,120 | 63.21 | 19,851 | 36.78 | 8 | 0.01 | 14,269 | 26.43 | 53,979 |
| Gila | 7,524 | 37.01 | 12,804 | 62.98 | 2 | 0.01 | -5,280 | -25.97 | 20,330 |
| Graham | 3,476 | 32.99 | 7,061 | 67.01 | 0 | 0.00 | -3,585 | -34.02 | 10,537 |
| Greenlee | 1,084 | 43.00 | 1,437 | 57.00 | 0 | 0.00 | -353 | -14.00 | 2,531 |
| La Paz | 1,608 | 32.06 | 3,408 | 67.94 | 0 | 0.00 | -1,800 | -35.88 | 5,016 |
| Maricopa | 713,045 | 50.72 | 692,690 | 49.27 | 85 | 0.01 | 20,355 | 1.45 | 1,405,735 |
| Mohave | 18,775 | 26.56 | 51,900 | 73.43 | 5 | 0.01 | -33,125 | -46.87 | 70,675 |
| Navajo | 16,930 | 47.06 | 19,040 | 52.93 | 3 | 0.01 | -2,110 | -5.87 | 35,970 |
| Pima | 226,034 | 59.24 | 155,501 | 40.75 | 23 | 0.01 | 70,533 | 18.49 | 381,535 |
| Pinal | 49,756 | 42.90 | 66,211 | 57.09 | 7 | 0.01 | -16,455 | -14.19 | 115,967 |
| Santa Cruz | 9,497 | 71.81 | 3,729 | 28.19 | 0 | 0.00 | 5,768 | 43.62 | 13,226 |
| Yavapai | 38,259 | 36.66 | 66,088 | 63.33 | 13 | 0.01 | -27,829 | -26.67 | 104,347 |
| Yuma | 20,526 | 47.91 | 22,319 | 52.09 | 2 | 0.00 | -1,793 | -4.18 | 42,845 |
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "2018 General Election" (PDF). results.arizona.vote. November 6, 2018. Retrieved March 30, 2021.
- ^ "Secretary of State Races Are More Competitive and Important Than Ever". June 2018.
- ^ "Millionaire jumps into race to challenge Michele Reagan for Arizona secretary of state".
- ^ "Could dark-horse candidate be Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan's biggest threat? - Rose Law Group Reporter". December 25, 2017.
- ^ "Arizona Election Information". apps.arizona.vote.
- ^ "Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan to see 2018 primary challenge". Archived from the original on March 31, 2017. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
- ^ "Sen. Steve Montenegro jumps into race for Arizona secretary of state".
- ^ "Crowded race to replace Rep. Trent Franks reshapes state's political landscape".
- ^ a b "2018 Primary Election - August 28, 2018 - Official Canvass of Results" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State.
- ^ "Democratic state Sen. Katie Hobbs will seek to unseat Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan".
- ^ "Hobbs Announces She'll Run for Arizona Secretary of State | Arizona News | US News". Archived from the original on December 13, 2017. Retrieved March 11, 2017.
- ^ "Leslie Pico for AZ Secretary of State 2018 - Take Action". electleslie.com. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
- ^ "Primary candidates drop off ballot following petition challenges". Glendale Star. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
- ^ "Mark Robert Gordon for Secretary of State". www.facebook.com.
- ^ "Arizona native, lawyer Mark Robert Gordon to run for secretary of state". September 29, 2017.
- ^ "Unity, For The Greater Good". June 19, 2018.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (June 4, 2018). "Secretary of State Races Are More Competitive and Important Than Ever". Governing. Retrieved September 22, 2019.
- ^ Data Orbital (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ OH Predictive Insights