2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary
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The 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary was held on March 19, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 43 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[1] The contest was held alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio.
Background
[edit]In the 2016 Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump won the Arizona primary with 46.0% of the vote, with his nearest opponent, Senator Ted Cruz, taking 27.6% of the vote. In the 2020 primaries, the Arizona Republican Party canceled their contest.[2]
Candidates
[edit]The filing deadline was December 11, 2023.[3] The following candidates filed:[4]
- John Anthony Castro
- David Stuckenberg
- Donald Trump
- Ryan Binkley (withdrew February 27, 2024)
- Chris Christie (withdrew January 10, 2024)
- Ron DeSantis (withdrew January 21, 2024)
- Nikki Haley (withdrew March 6, 2024)
- Asa Hutchinson (withdrew January 16, 2024)
- Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrew January 15, 2024)
Endorsements
[edit]Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Former federal executive official
- Donald Tapia, U.S. Ambassador to Jamaica (2019–2021)[5]
Former U.S. representative
- Matt Salmon, AZ-05 (2013–2017) and AZ-01 (1995–2001)[6]
State senators
- T. J. Shope, district 16 (2023–present) and district 8 (2021–2023); President Pro Tempore (2023–present); House Speaker Pro Tempore (2017–2021)[7]
- Ken Bennett, district 1 (1999–2007 and 2023–present); Arizona Secretary of State (2009–2015); President (2003–2007)[7]
- Steve Kaiser, district 2 (2023–present)[7]
- J. D. Mesnard, district 13 (2023–present) and district 17 (2019–2023); House Speaker (2017–2019)[7]
- Frank Carroll, district 28 (2023–present)[7]
State representatives
- Ben Toma, district 27 (2023–present) and district 22 (2017–2023); Speaker (2023–present); Majority Leader (2021–2023)[7]
- Teresa Martinez, district 16 (2023–present) and district 11 (2021–2023); Majority Whip (2023–present)[7]
- Justin Wilmeth, district 2 (2023–present) and district 15 (2021–2023)[7]
- David Cook, district 7 (2023–present) and district 8 (2017–2023)[7]
- Lupe Diaz, district 19 (2023–present) and district 14 (2021–2023)[7]
- Kevin Payne, district 27 (2023–present) and district 21 (2017–2023)[7]
- Beverly Pingerelli, district 28 (2023–present) and district 21 (2021–2023)[7]
County official
- Jonathan Lines, Yuma County Supervisor from district 2 (2021–present); Chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2017–2019)[7]
Notable individuals
- Jim Lamon, founder of DEFCOM Power, Inc. and Republican candidate for U.S. Senator from Arizona in 2022[8]
- Meghan McCain, political commentator and daughter of 2008 nominee for President John McCain[9] (switched endorsement to Haley)[10]
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Notable individuals
- Meghan McCain, political commentator and daughter of 2008 nominee for President John McCain[10]
Donald Trump
U.S. representatives
- Andy Biggs, AZ-05 (2017–present)[11]
- Eli Crane, AZ-02 (2023–present)[12]
- Paul Gosar, AZ-09 (2011–present)[12]
- Debbie Lesko, AZ-08 (2018–present)[13]
State senators
- Anthony Kern, Member of the Arizona Senate from the 27th District (2023–present)[14]
- Wendy Rogers, district 7 (2023–present) and 6th district (2021–2023)[15]
- Justine Wadsack, district 17 (2023–present)[16]
State representatives
- Mark Finchem, district 11 (2015–2023); Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona Secretary of State election[17]
- Rachel Jones, district 17 (2023–present)[16]
- Cody McGarr, district 17 (2023–present)[16]
- Austin Smith, Member of the Arizona House of Representatives from the 29th district (2023–present)[18]
Former county official
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff (1993–2017)[19]
Notable individuals
- Kari Lake, news anchor; Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election[20]
- Blake Masters, venture capitalist and the Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from Arizona in 2022[21]
Declined to endorse
U.S. representative
- David Schweikert, AZ-01 (2023–present), AZ-06 (2013–2021), AZ-05 (2011–2013)[22]
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 492,299 | 78.84% | 43 | 43 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 110,966 | 17.77% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 10,131 | 1.62% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 5,078 | 0.81% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,479 | 0.40% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 1,367 | 0.22% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 891 | 0.14% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 714 | 0.11% | |||
| John Anthony Castro | 505 | 0.08% | |||
| Total: | 624,430 | 100.00% | 43 | 43 | |
Polling
[edit]| States polled |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Nikki Haley |
Donald Trump |
Other/ Undecided[a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[24] | through February 4, 2024 | March 5, 2024 | 19.9% | 77.3% | 2.8% | Trump +57.4 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[25] | October 25–31, 2023 | 348 (RV) | ± 5.25% | 2% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 1% | 53% | 7%[c] | – |
| – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College[26] | August 2–4, 2023 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 6% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 58% | 11%[d] | 1% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[27] | July 13–17, 2023 | 346 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 50% | 7%[e] | – |
| – | 38% | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | ||||
| J.L. Partners[28] | Apr 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | – | 24% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 47% | 8%[f] | 11% |
| – | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 13% | ||||
| Noble Predictive Insights[27] | Apr 4–11, 2023 | 371 (RV) | ± 5.1% | – | 21% | 4% | – | 7% | – | 0% | 49% | 20%[g] | – |
| – | 41% | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | – | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | Mar 13–14, 2023 | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 24% |
| OH Predictive Insights[30] | Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 1% | 26% | 5% | – | 8% | – | – | 42% | 11%[h] | 7% |
| Blueprint Polling[31] | Jan 5–8, 2023 | 303 (V) | – | – | 34% | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | – | 23% |
| Echelon Insights[32] | Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 | 337 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | 36% | – | – | – | – | – | 53% | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights[33] | Nov 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 1% | 16% | 6% | – | 9% | – | – | 48% | 9%[i] | 9% |
| 0% | 29% | 8% | – | 21% | – | – | – | 25%[j] | 16% |
See also
[edit]- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else not listed" & "None of these candidates" with 2%; Doug Burgum with 1%; Ryan Binkley, Larry Elder, Will Hurd, Perry Johnson & Francis Suarez with 0%
- ^ Doug Burgum and Will Hurd with 1%; Francis Suarez and Perry Johnson with 0%; "Someone else" with 9%
- ^ Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Francis Suarez, Larry Elder, Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, and "Someone Else not Listed" with 0%; "None of these Candidates" with 7%
- ^ Liz Cheney with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Liz Cheney with 4%; Marco Rubio with 3%; Mike Pompeo, Chris Sununu, and Larry Hogan with 1%; Glenn Youngkin with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%; "None of these Candidates" with 9%
- ^ Liz Cheney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 3%; Mike Pompeo with 2%; Marco Rubio with 1%; Kristi Noem and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
- ^ Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney with 3%; Marco Rubio with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%
- ^ Ted Cruz with 10%; Donald Trump Jr. with 8%; Mitt Romney with 4%; Marco Rubio with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%
References
[edit]- ^ "Arizona Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. January 19, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- ^ Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
- ^ "Important dates in the 2024 presidential race". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Preference Election Filed Candidates" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
- ^ Isenstadt, Alex (February 21, 2023). "Republican 2024 rivals go shopping for big donors". Politico. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- ^ Bade, Rachael; Irvine, Bethany (March 6, 2023). "From loner to phenom: DeSantis' old colleagues are surprised at his rise". Politico. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m McCormick, John. "How Nikki Haley Went From Tea-Party Favorite to Governor to Trump 2024 Challenger". WSJ. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
- ^ Palmer, Ewan (July 20, 2023). "Arizona Republican Jim Lamon Turns on Trump, Bankrolls Campaign to Stop Him". Newsweek. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ Oshin, Olafimihan (November 9, 2022). "Meghan McCain: Midterm results should be 'final nail' in Trump's political coffin". The Hill. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
- ^ a b "Meghan McCain Drops F-Bomb, "I Really Need Republicans to Explain"". 2paragraphs.com. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
- ^ Astor, Maggie (November 16, 2022). "Republican reaction to Trump: A few endorsements, and a lot of crickets". The New York Times. The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ a b Ballasy, Nicholas (December 1, 2022). "Trump picks up early 2024 endorsements from GOP lawmakers, other political figures". Just The News. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ Murdock, Corinne (August 16, 2023). "Arizona Politicians React To Trump's Indictment". AZ Free News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
- ^ Pesce, Nicole Lyn (November 15, 2022). "Cheers and jeers from Republicans as Trump announces 2024 presidential bid". MarketWatch. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c Poling, Hannah (July 21, 2023). "Arizona Legislative District 17's Freedom Team Endorses Donald Trump for President". Arizona Sun Times. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- ^ "Arizona election 2022: Finchem won't acknowledge loss in secretary of state race". azcentral. November 16, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ "Smith: 'It's about what they've done to half the country by extension'". Coconino News. August 2, 2023. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
- ^ "I hope Trump runs, he's my hero | Sheriff Joe Arpaio | American Agenda". Headtopics. November 11, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ Jones, Dustin (November 15, 2022). "What lawmakers are saying about Trump's run for the presidency". NPR. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ Baizal-Emil, Eric (October 26, 2023). "Blake Masters announces House bid in Arizona, forgoing another run for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally; Ferris, Sarah (March 2, 2023). "Trump's loosening grip on GOP defines early 2024 campaign". Politico. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ a b Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ J.L. Partners
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ "Blueprint Polling" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ "OH Predictive Insights". Archived from the original on December 20, 2022. Retrieved March 3, 2023.