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2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Alaska
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout60.67% (Decrease0.1 pp)
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 189,951 153,778
Percentage 52.83% 42.77%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Alaska
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Anchorage
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alaska voters chose three electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and Alliance Party nominees were also on the ballot, as was an Independent candidate.

Prior to the election, 13 of 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a red state. Since it was admitted into the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every single election except 1964[3] in Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide, when he carried it with 65.91% of the vote.[4] However, some analysts believed Alaska could be competitive based on polling.[5][6]

Despite not being a swing state, Alaska was one of the last states to be called; the state did not start counting absentee ballots or early votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10.[7] Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November 18.[8] As a result, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11.[9] He won the state by 10.06%, the closest margin in the state since 1992. Biden received the highest percentage of the vote for a Democrat in the state since 1964. It was also the second time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote in the state since 1968, the first being Barack Obama in 2012.[10]

Alaska shifted 4.67% to the Democratic nominee compared to the 2016 election. The state ultimately weighed in as 14.51 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020. Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Anchorage since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to receive a majority in Haines Borough since 1964.

Primary elections

[edit]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 21, 2019, the Alaska Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. The party argued that a primary would be useless with an incumbent Republican president.[11]

Of the 29 total delegates, 3 is allocated to the at-large congressional district, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 are allocated to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 13 bonus delegates were allocated.

The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district conventions were held on the four consecutive Saturdays from February 8 to 29 to select delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention. At the Alaska State Republican Convention, which took place from April 2 to April 4, 2020, the state party formally bound all 29 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[12]

The 26 pledged delegates Alaska sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Alaska Republican Party.

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary

The Alaska Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 23, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Alaska Democratic Party canceled in-person voting, but extended mail-in voting to April 10.[13]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary § AKresults.[edit]
2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary final results[14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 10,834 54.83 8
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 8,755 44.31 7
Inactive votes[a] 170 0.86
Total 19,759 100% 15

Libertarian nominee

[edit]

No contest was held for the Libertarian Party's nomination in the state of Alaska. At the 2020 Libertarian National Convention, the Alaskan delegates cast their votes for Georgia politician John Monds, but on the third and fourth ballots voted for Jo Jorgensen, psychology senior lecturer at Clemson University. Jorgensen would become the party's nominee after being elected on the fourth ballot, her running mate being entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen.[16][17]

General election

[edit]

Issues

[edit]

Several of Trump's environmental policies involved loosening restrictions on energy, hunting, and mining in Alaska: he instructed the Department of Agriculture to exempt Tongass National Forest from logging restrictions;[18] supported the construction of Pebble Mine, an unpopular[19] gold and copper mine in Bristol Bay (though the permit was ultimately denied);[20] rolled back limits on hunters in federal land in Alaska;[21] and opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.[22] While these policies expanded their respective industries, they were met with opposition among environmental groups and the Gwich'in, whose sacred land is partly within the refuge.[23][24] Biden pledged to reverse several of Trump's climate policies[25] and address the climate crisis, and he enacted a temporary moratorium on gas and oil leasing in the ANWR after being inaugurated on January 20, 2021.[26]

Trump's environmental and gun policy also included reviving hunting techniques in Alaska, an action condemned by several animal rights groups.[27]

Final predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[28] Likely R
Inside Elections[29] Lean R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Likely R
Politico[31] Lean R
RCP[32] Likely R
Niskanen[33] Tossup
CNN[34] Solid R
The Economist[35] Likely R
CBS News[36][b] Likely R
270towin[37] Likely R
ABC News[38] Lean R
NPR[39][c] Lean R
NBC News[40] Likely R
538[41] Likely R

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[d] 		Margin
270 to Win[42] October 6 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.8% 49.4% 6.8% Trump +5.6
FiveThirtyEight[43] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.6% 51.2% 5.2% Trump +7.7
Average 43.7% 50.3% 6.0% Trump +6.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 634 (LV) ± 5% 54%[f] 45% – – –
Gravis Marketing[45] Oct 26–28, 2020 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 43% – – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Oct 1–28, 2020 1,147 (LV) – 54% 44% – – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[46][A] Oct 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 50% 45% - – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[47] Oct 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 39% 8% 2%[g] 6%[h]
Patinkin Research Strategies[48] Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 49% 46% – 3%[i] 2%
Alaska Survey Research[49] Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020 696 (LV) – 50% 46% - - 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Sep 1–30, 2020 563 (LV) – 53% 45% - - 2%
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska[50][B] Sep 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 47% 46% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Aug 1–31, 2020 472 (LV) – 57% 42% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Jul 1–31, 2020 412 (LV) – 55% 43% - - 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][C] Jul 23–24, 2020 885 (V) – 50% 44% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling[52][j] Jul 7–8, 2020 1,081 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - 6%
Alaska Survey Research[53] Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% - - 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[44] Jun 8–30, 2020 161 (LV) – 52% 46% - - 2%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 40% - - 15%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 31% 24%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 48% 30% 23%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 38% 17%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics[54] Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 48% 32% 20%

Fundraising

[edit]

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, of the candidates who were on the ballot, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $1,487,277.13,[55] Joe Biden raised $1,321,242.60,[56] and Jo Jorgensen raised $7,420.85[57] from Alaska-based contributors. Don Blankenship,[58] Brock Pierce,[59] and Rocky De La Fuente,[60] all of which were on the ballot, did not raise any money from the state.

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

In addition, write-in candidates were required to file a Declaration of Intent with the Alaska Division of Elections at least five days before the election. They were also obligated to file a financial disclosure statement. Write-in votes were not counted individually.[61][62] The following candidates were given write-in access:[63]

  • Dennis Andrew Ball / Richard A. Sanders, American Party of America – American National Committee
  • Barbara Ruth Bellar / Kendra Bryant, Republican
  • President R19 Boddie / Eric C. Stoneham, Independent
  • David C. Byrne / Tony N. Reed, C.C.U.S.A.
  • Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity
  • Todd Cella / Timothy Bryan "Tim" Cella, Independent
  • Mark Robert Charles / Adrian D. Wallace, Independent
  • Ryan Stephen Ehrenreich / Veronica Ehrenreich, Independent
  • Howard "Howie" Gresham Hawkins / Angela Nicola Walker, Socialist Party USA
  • Thomas "Tom" Hoefling / Andy Prior, Independent
  • Shawn W. Howard / Alyssa C. Howard, Independent
  • Dario David Hunter / Dawn Neptune Adams, Progressive
  • Joseph W. "Joe" McHugh / Elizabeth "Liz" Storm, Independent
  • Albert L. Raley / Darlene Raley, Republican
  • Deborah Ann "Debbie" Rouse / Sheila Maria Cannon, Independent
  • Jade Simmons / Claudeliah J. "CJ" Roze, Independent
  • Mary Ruth Caro Simmons / Sherrie Dow, Independent
  • Ajay Sood / Richard Mende, Independent
  • Sheila "Samm" Tittle / John Wagner, Independent
  • Kasey J. Wells / Rachel M. Wells, Independent
  • Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent
  • Demetra Jefferson Wysinger / Cedric D. Jefferson, WXYZ New Day

Electoral slates

[edit]

The voters of Alaska cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alaska, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[64][65]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 14, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 3 pledged electors from Alaska cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective state capitals (the District of Columbia electors meet within the District). The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[66]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party 		Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party 		Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney
Green Party 		Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Constitution Party 		Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard
Independent 		Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Alliance
John Binkley
Judy Eledge
Randy Ruedrich 		Paul Kelly
Frances Degnan
Cindy Spanyers 		none listed Robert Shields
Lenin Lau
Josh Hadley 		Samuel Smith
Rebecca Anderson
William Topel 		Arenz Thigpen Jr.
Roderick Butler
John Ray 		Ross Johnston
Marie Motschman
Anne Begle-Shedlock

Delay in results

[edit]

As expected, there was a nationwide delay in reporting election results, due to the extreme influx of absentee and mail-in ballots as a public health measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.[67] In Alaska, these delays were especially severe. Alaska mailed absentee ballot applications to every voter aged 65 and over.[68] Mail-in ballots only needed to be postmarked by Election Day and received by November 13 (November 18 for overseas voters), further delaying the count.[69] Only early votes cast before October 29 and Election Day votes would be released on Election Night and the state could not even begin the counting of absentee ballots nor the remaining early votes until November 10.[68] Counting was expected to be complete by November 18. By November 4, the state still had at least 122,233 absentee ballots to count.[70][71] Alaska and New York are the only two states to begin counting absentee ballots after Election Day.[72] Gail Felunumiai, Alaska's Director of Elections, attributed the delay to the need to verify that voters who voted by mail and also at their polling places did not have their ballots counted twice.[73]

The delay in counting left many races undecided for weeks.[74] The extreme rural nature of the state only worsened the delay: with many local communities being accessible only by boat or plane, seven communities had to vote entirely by absentee ballots in the primary due to a last-minute shortage of election workers.[73] The Associated Press called the race for Trump on November 11 at 12:16 PM EST (8:16 AM AKST),[9][75] 4 days after President-elect Biden won the national election.

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Alaska[66][76]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		189,951 52.83% +1.55%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		153,778 42.77% +6.23%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		8,897 2.47% −3.41%
Green Jesse Ventura[k]
Cynthia McKinney 		2,673 0.74% −1.06%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		1,127 0.31% −0.90%
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		825 0.23% N/A
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		318 0.09% N/A
Write-in 1,961 0.55% N/A
Total votes 359,530 100.00% +6.67%

By State House district

[edit]

Unlike every other U.S. state, Alaska is not divided into counties or parishes. Rather, it is administratively divided into 20 boroughs: 19 organized and 1 unorganized, which act as county-equivalents.[3] The Unorganized Borough lacks a borough government structure and itself is divided into eleven census areas.[77] Contrary to election results in most states, official results by borough are not available – rather, they are estimates based on precinct-level data.[78] However, the Alaska Division of Elections does release official results by State House district, which are listed in the table below. Trump won 21 districts to Biden's 19. Biden also won overseas ballots. The 5th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, and 35th districts swung from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020.[79][80]

State House District[81] Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Jesse Ventura
Green 		Don Blankenship
Constitution 		Brock Pierce
Independent 		Rocky De La Fuente
Alliance 		Write-in Margin Total votes Registered voters Voter turnout
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
1 - Fairbanks 3,511 47.43% 3,477 46.97% 216 2.92% 50 0.68% 34 0.46% 24 0.32% 2 0.03% 89 1.20% 34 0.46% 7,403 13,926 53.16%
2 - Fort Wainwright 3,674 59.54% 2,104 34.09% 287 4.65% 30 0.49% 18 0.29% 14 0.23% 9 0.15% 35 0.57% 1,570 25.45% 6,171 11,997 51.44%
3 - North Pole 6,076 71.89% 1,903 22.52% 316 3.74% 42 0.50% 27 0.32% 13 0.15% 8 0.09% 67 0.79% 4,173 49.37% 8,452 14,878 56.81%
4 - Goldstream 4,690 44.10% 5,345 50.25% 323 3.04% 93 0.87% 27 0.25% 29 0.27% 4 0.04% 125 1.18% -655 -6.15% 10,636 15,274 69.63%
5 - West Fairbanks 4,077 46.65% 4,204 48.11% 259 2.96% 68 0.78% 21 0.24% 17 0.19% 8 0.09% 85 0.97% -127 -1.46% 8,739 13,958 62.61%
6 - Rural Interior 5,770 60.36% 3,272 34.23% 266 2.78% 83 0.87% 33 0.35% 31 0.32% 5 0.05% 99 1.04% 2,498 26.13% 9,559 15,444 61.89%
7 - Wasilla 7,027 72.35% 2,215 22.80% 272 2.80% 54 0.56% 36 0.37% 13 0.13% 5 0.05% 91 0.94% 4,812 49.55% 9,713 16,692 58.19%
8 - Knik 7,618 76.28% 1,953 19.56% 241 2.41% 48 0.48% 28 0.28% 18 0.18% 6 0.06% 75 0.75% 5,665 56.72% 9,987 17,531 56.97%
9 - Sutton-Valdez-Delta 7,787 70.17% 2,769 24.95% 301 2.71% 77 0.69% 39 0.35% 16 0.14% 4 0.04% 105 0.95% 5,018 45.22% 11,098 16,917 65.60%
10 - Houston 8,081 71.64% 2,727 24.18% 286 2.54% 64 0.57% 22 0.20% 19 0.17% 6 0.05% 75 0.66% 5,354 47.46% 11,280 17,577 64.17%
11 - Palmer 7,096 66.14% 3,130 29.17% 269 2.51% 88 0.82% 22 0.21% 17 0.16% 6 0.06% 101 0.94% 3,966 36.97% 10,729 16,491 65.06%
12 - Butte 7,893 69.66% 2,957 26.10% 288 2.54% 54 0.48% 28 0.25% 15 0.13% 3 0.03% 92 0.81% 4,936 43.56% 11,330 16,546 68.48%
13 - Chugiak 4,652 59.69% 2,666 34.21% 308 3.95% 40 0.51% 16 0.21% 25 0.32% 6 0.08% 80 1.03% 1,986 25.48% 7,793 13,888 56.11%
14 - Eagle River 6,714 57.94% 4,261 36.77% 356 3.07% 50 0.43% 46 0.40% 10 0.09% 6 0.05% 145 1.25% 2,453 21.17% 11,588 16,726 69.28%
15 - JBER 2,671 47.48% 2,622 46.61% 197 3.50% 36 0.64% 10 0.18% 13 0.23% 10 0.18% 67 1.19% 49 0.87% 5,626 12,607 44.63%
16 - Nunaka Valley 3,516 42.84% 4,274 52.08% 210 2.56% 64 0.78% 27 0.33% 15 0.18% 12 0.15% 89 1.08% -758 -9.24% 8,207 15,067 54.47%
17 - UMed 2,810 38.42% 4,136 56.56% 184 2.52% 64 0.88% 18 0.25% 18 0.25% 9 0.12% 74 1.01% -1,326 -18.14% 7,313 13,307 54.96%
18 - West Anchorage 2,760 35.33% 4,681 59.92% 157 2.01% 79 1.01% 24 0.31% 15 0.19% 4 0.05% 92 1.18% -1,921 -24.59% 7,812 14,183 55.08%
19 - Mountain View 1,975 36.69% 3,118 57.92% 110 2.04% 52 0.97% 22 0.41% 11 0.20% 13 0.24% 82 1.52% -1,143 -21.23% 5,383 12,328 43.66%
20 - Downtown Anchorage 2,383 31.35% 4,881 64.21% 153 2.01% 53 0.70% 8 0.11% 15 0.20% 4 0.05% 105 1.38% -2,498 -32.86% 7,602 14,086 53.97%
21 - Turnagain-Sand Lake 3,690 38.71% 5,414 56.79% 203 2.13% 70 0.73% 29 0.30% 19 0.20% 4 0.04% 104 1.09% -1,724 -18.08% 9,533 14,633 65.15%
22 - Jewel Lake 4,684 48.55% 4,553 47.20% 200 2.07% 46 0.48% 16 0.17% 18 0.19% 3 0.03% 127 1.32% 131 1.35% 9,647 15,077 63.98%
23 - Campbell Creek 3,655 46.64% 3,810 48.62% 170 2.17% 53 0.68% 22 0.28% 16 0.20% 13 0.17% 98 1.25% -155 -1.98% 7,837 14,325 54.71%
24 - East Anchorage 5,378 50.98% 4,736 44.89% 222 2.10% 46 0.44% 15 0.14% 24 0.23% 7 0.07% 122 1.16% 642 6.09% 10,550 15,078 69.97%
25 - Abbott 4,407 46.88% 4,600 48.94% 201 2.14% 67 0.71% 21 0.22% 14 0.15% 15 0.16% 75 0.80% -193 -2.06% 9,400 15,175 61.94%
26 - O'Malley-Huffman 5,243 51.26% 4,558 44.56% 207 2.02% 55 0.54% 23 0.22% 23 0.22% 2 0.02% 118 1.15% 685 6.70% 10,229 15,591 65.61%
27 - Hillside 4,324 45.13% 4,844 50.55% 228 2.38% 59 0.62% 21 0.22% 24 0.25% 6 0.06% 76 0.79% -520 -5.42% 9,582 15,390 62.26%
28 - Girdwood 6,162 47.76% 6,264 48.55% 219 1.70% 69 0.53% 16 0.12% 16 0.12% 3 0.02% 153 1.19% -102 -0.79% 12,902 16,743 77.06%
29 - Nikiski-Seward 7,464 68.96% 2,985 27.58% 190 1.76% 69 0.64% 26 0.24% 10 0.09% 3 0.03% 76 0.70% 4,479 41.38% 10,823 16,296 66.42%
30 - Kenai 7,180 69.97% 2,638 25.71% 270 2.63% 42 0.41% 26 0.25% 17 0.17% 3 0.03% 86 0.84% 4,542 44.26% 10,262 16,782 61.15%
31 - Homer 6,971 55.56% 5,037 40.15% 250 1.99% 100 0.80% 27 0.22% 18 0.14% 7 0.06% 136 1.08% 1,934 15.41% 12,546 18,132 69.19%
32 - Kodiak 4,440 52.89% 3,506 41.76% 238 2.84% 105 1.25% 21 0.25% 21 0.25% 4 0.05% 60 0.71% 934 11.13% 8,395 13,986 60.02%
33 - Juneau 3,059 27.65% 7,535 68.11% 197 1.78% 103 0.93% 27 0.24% 25 0.23% 9 0.08% 108 0.98% -4,476 -40.46% 11,063 16,306 67.85%
34 - Mendenhall 4,543 41.85% 5,763 53.09% 279 2.57% 68 0.63% 36 0.33% 34 0.31% 6 0.06% 127 1.17% -1,220 -11.24% 10,856 16,034 67.71%
35 - Sitka-Petersburg 4,769 46.71% 5,011 49.08% 170 1.67% 95 0.93% 35 0.34% 16 0.16% 6 0.06% 107 1.05% -242 -2.37% 10,209 15,766 64.75%
36 - Ketchikan 5,114 54.47% 3,796 40.43% 245 2.61% 79 0.84% 30 0.32% 20 0.21% 8 0.09% 97 1.03% 1,318 14.04% 9,389 15,375 61.07%
37 - Bristol Bay-Aleutians 2,358 45.09% 2,560 48.95% 86 1.64% 56 1.07% 51 0.98% 17 0.33% 14 0.27% 88 1.68% -202 -3.86% 5,230 10,447 50.06%
38 - Bethel 1,737 32.17% 3,202 59.30% 105 1.94% 112 2.07% 52 0.96% 61 1.13% 30 0.56% 101 1.87% -1,465 -27.13% 5,400 12,145 44.46%
39 - Nome 1,939 32.26% 3,580 59.56% 123 2.05% 104 1.73% 80 1.33% 45 0.75% 20 0.33% 120 2.00% -1,641 -27.30% 6,011 12,144 49.50%
40 - Kotzebue-Utqiagvik 1,994 42.63% 2,318 49.56% 94 2.01% 86 1.84% 47 1.00% 39 0.83% 25 0.53% 74 1.58% -324 -6.93% 4,677 10,118 46.22%
Overseas ballots[82] 59 13.47% 373 85.16% 1 0.23% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 1.14% -314 -71.69% 438 681 64.32%
Total 189,951 52.83% 153,778 42.77% 8,897 2.47% 2,673 0.74% 1,127 0.31% 825 0.23% 318 0.09% 3,831[l] 1.06% 36,173 10.06% 361,400[l] 595,647 60.67%
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won the state's lone at-large district.[83]

District Trump Biden Elected
Representative
At-large 52.8% 42.8% Don Young

Analysis

[edit]

Biden narrowly won Anchorage, the state's largest city, outperforming local Democrats.[84] Biden was the first Democrat to win Anchorage since Johnson. This also made Trump the first candidate of either party to prevail in Alaska without winning Anchorage. James Brooks at the Anchorage Daily News attributed Trump's victory to strong performances in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Borough.[84]

The election corresponded with the 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan being successfully re-elected against independent Al Gross, who was also nominated and endorsed by the Democratic Party.[85] Sullivan won by a 12.71% margin, outperforming Trump by 2.65 percentage points, consistent with a nationwide trend where down-ballot Republicans outperformed Trump.[86] In the United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, incumbent Republican Don Young underperformed Trump by 0.92 percentage points against Democrat-endorsed independent Alyse Galvin.[87]

Associated Press exit polling

[edit]

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 689 likely voters in Alaska, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[88]

2020 presidential election in Alaska by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[88]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump Jorgensen % of

total vote

Total vote 42.77 52.83 2.47 100
Ideology
Liberals 93 7 <1 29
Moderates 53 41 5 26
Conservatives 5 91 3 45
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat 97 2 <1 38
Republicans or lean Republican 6 90 3 55
Independents 40 38 14 6
Type of vote
Election Day 22 72 5 37
Early in-person 51 47 2 29
Mail 59 38 1 34
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton 98 1 <1 30
Donald Trump 5 92 1 44
Someone else 47 33 13 13
Did not vote – – – 14
Gender
Men 36 60 4 53
Women 52 45 1 47
Race/ethnicity
White 44 53 2 72
Black – – – 3
Latino – – – 5
Other 46 49 2 20
Age
18–29 years old – – – 15
30–44 years old 41 56 2 27
45–64 years old 39 57 4 38
65 and older 48 52 <1 20
Religion
Protestant/Other Christian 21 76 2 43
Catholic – – – 12
Other 48 48 1 16
None 74 24 1 29
Sexual orientation
LGBT – – – 5
Heterosexual 40 57 1 95
Education
High school or less – – – 24
Some college education or associate degree 37 58 2 40
College graduate 58 44 7 23
Postgraduate degree 55 43 <1 13
Total household income (2019)
Under $50,000 50 45 3 23
$50,000–$99,999 43 52 3 40
Over $100,000 38 60 2 37
Union households
Yes – – – 28
No 39 59 1 72
Veteran households
Yes – – – 52
No 45 47 8 48
Area type
Urban 51 47 1 21
Suburban 35 59 4 30
Small town 50 46 3 30
Rural 37 61 <1 19

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
  2. ^ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  3. ^ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  8. ^ Includes "Refused"
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. ^ Poll's funding crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
  11. ^ a b The national Green Party nominated Howie Hawkins for President with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Alaska state party chose Ventura and McKinney.
  12. ^ a b For an unknown reason, the number of write-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the official State House district-level results. The former counts 1,961 and the latter 3,831. Results for all other candidates are identical between the two sources.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. ^ The Independent Alaska PAC supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period

References

[edit]
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Further reading

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[edit]
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