In the last decade, the notion of uncertainty has gained prominence in anthropological debates. So has the debate on future. Yet, the conceptualisation of uncertainty has barely been linked to the future(s) and its temporal relations. This lack of linkage seems astonishing in so far as uncertainty relates closely to the unpredictability of the future. Uncertain situations engender ambivalent experiences and affects towards an unknown future embracing hope, desire and opportunity as well as fear, despair and suffering. Theoretically, the future is always unknown and unpredictable, but usually people are able to anticipate the future as it is more conversant than in uncertain situations, which challenge future outlooks and knowledge practices. Anthropologists have dedicated atten- tion to uncertain situations ranging from everyday uncertainties under precarious conditions to crises and critical events of individual or collective existential uncertainty.

The master thesis studies the applicability of Black-Scholes-Model extensions to pricing options on stock indices. Polish options on the WIG20 stock index traded on the GPW the provide for the object of the study. The thesis analyses the characteristics of the Polish derivative market and applies stochastic theory to pricing Polish options. The traditional Black-Scholes-Merton model is extended to accommodate various stochastic approaches including Martingale Pricing methods, Fourier Transforms, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The approaches are implemented by means of the Python computer language. The results produced by different pricing methods are compared to the results of the standard Black-Scholes-Merton.

[the download only contains excerpts, but you are welcome to contact me for more info]

The study is an attempt to find a relation between the change in the prices of futures contracts of specific stocks and the change in Open Interest. Participants in the stock markets believe that the amount of open interest in a particular contract has a bearing on the behavior of the price of the contract. This popular perception is put to test in the following research by correlating the change in open interest in stock futures with the change in the futures prices. Empirical data has been collected from bhav copies published by the National Stock Exchange, India and then the data is subjected to correlation analysis to find out the significance of these parameters. The daily price data and open interest data is collected for sixteen stocks and the index (NIFTY) for a period of 4 years. The correlation between the change in futures price and the change in open interest is calculated for near month contracts of these seventeen futures contracts. Keywords-Futures, Derivatives, Open ...

Relatório da Unesco poderia resumir-se numa ideia estrutural: Sem cultura, as cidades como espaços de vida vibrantes não existem, são meras construções de cimento e aço, propensas à degradação e à fratura social. Por Rui Matoso Em 2015 a UNESCO lançou o programa, Iniciativas para a Cultura no Desenvolvimento Urbano Sustentável , procurando evidenciar a ligação efetiva entre a implementação das Convenções Culturais da UNESCO e as metas da Agenda para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável (2030), a qual reconhece integralmente, ao contrário da anterior agenda (Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milénio, até 2015), o papel da cultura no desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. Entre os 17 objetivos desta Agenda para a sustentabilidade das cidades, o Relatório torna evidente que a dimensão cultural das cidades desempenha um papel fundamental na concretização de uma perspetiva holística do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável, particularmente através da salvaguarda do património mundial, cultural e ambiental, mas também através da promoção das indústrias culturais e criativas, sublinhando o seu potencial como recurso para o desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. O Relatório poderia resumir-se numa ideia estrutural: Sem cultura, as cidades como espaços de vida vibrantes não existem, são meras construções de cimento e aço, propensas à degradação e à fratura social. É a cultura que faz a diferença. É a cultura que define a cidade como aquilo a que os antigos romanos chamavam civitas, um complexo social coerente, o corpo coletivo de todos os cidadãos. A estrutura do documento divide-se em cinco partes:-A Parte I situa o Relatório no seu contexto global, apresentando a situação atual da cultura e do desenvolvimento urbano sustentável com base nos resultados de um inquérito global da UNESCO, juntamente com nove parceiros regionais.

We are near to being able to attempt to colonize other planets in the solar system, especially Mars. Is it a good idea? Weighing the costs and benefits is more of a philosopher's task than one might at first think, for two reasons. There are issues of incomparability, involving interests of a few largely well-off people and nations in comparison to the basic needs of many, and the interests of humanity in comparison to those of the planets and other living species. And there are issues of what we should and care about in the future of our species and its descendents, rather analogous to issues of personal identity. Does the best attitude prioritize people as they are now, with the desires and values that they have. Or is it better to prioritize intelligent beings that will exist and the perhaps superior aims that they will have? The discussion needs both a scientific background and comfort with tricky issues of value. In this book I begin with an exposition of present plans for Mars colonization and the obstacles they face. I also estimate direct monetary costs and indirect opportunity costs. I then list some of the dangers of these plans and try to evaluate their chances of providing a refuge that would evade possible fates of humanity on earth. Then, in the last chapter, I get to issues about what we should prefer for the long-term future of intelligent and other life. My discussion of these relies on a distinction between wants and values, and a deliberate suspension of the assumption that there is anything ultimate about present-day human beings. In a definitely contestable final section I argue that colonization plans as presently conceived are unlikely to achieve their ends and have a high chance of unwanted side effects.

This is my own invention of exercising Options. I call it, "The Dragon Spread". I uploaded several pictures and I'm still experimenting with this Options strategy. It is to be exercised when the stock price is determined to be bullish. There is a little Insurance protection from the Put side. First, Buy Call one ATM (At the Money) or slightly INM (In the Money) and Sell one OTM (Out of the Money) where you think the price will reach. Second, after initiating the first one, we then create a Credit Spread (Vertical) Options on the Put side where we think the price will not reach. For instance, Initiating the trade by Thursday, If the price of XYZ stock is determined to be 110 by the next day, i.e., Friday with the current price being 100. The price reached 110 by Friday, being bullish, we collected premiums on both sides of the trade, i.e., on Call and Put. The Further the stock goes up, the further the premium will go up. Here, the first spread, i.e., bull call spread is initiated for an expiration of 30-40 days, the same goes for the credit (vertical) spread. P.S. I'm not a financial advisor and all risk must be taken by the initiator, trader or investor.

This paper compares the option pricing models of Louis Bachelier and the Black-Scholes Merton. In doing so it undertakes a review of the model constructs, particularly an extended review of the background to the Bachelier model, in the process correcting critiques of this model and bringing it into line with the modern form. The paper demonstrates that the later B-SM model is an approximation of the earlier work in terms of the curvature correction

Reaching towards the future is a typical feature of modernity that has glorified, idealised, and exaggerated the value of its aspirations without, however, managing to take full advantage of them. As modernity breaks down there is a risk that the very idea of the future could be in crisis, and what is the sense of designing without a future? There are four significant moments in the evolution of the debate on the concepts of futures and anticipation in the modern sciences: 1) the American saga of the Rand Corporation which evolved into the contemporary Institute for the Future; 2) the pioneering phase of the French prospective; 3) the research related to the founding of the Club of Rome and the report it published that triggered a large part of the debate on the distinction between growth and development; and 4) the current European rebirth. This has been a multipart journey containing phases of renewal and abandonment. The latest phase has revived the term anticipation to indicate the set of interaction theories and practices with a plural concept of futures. Together with this, an international discussion has developed linking design cultures with the investigation into futures studies: two areas that until recently had not interacted. This article presents the roots of this debate and its connections with modernity. In parallel, it reports on a diverse and multidimensional relationship between design and futures supported by the contemporary designer’s awareness of time manipulation as an agent for stimulus and renewal. Finally, through a focus on the concept of time as future to be anticipated and materialized, it explores the points of contact between these disciplines and analyses the tools, processes and practices of Design Driven innovation as applied to products, services and communications.

The study is an attempt to find a relation between
the change in the prices of futures contracts of specific stocks
and the change in Open Interest. Participants in the stock
markets believe that the amount of open interest in a
particular contract has a bearing on the behavior of the price
of the contract. This popular perception is put to test in the
following research by correlating the change in open interest in
stock futures with the change in the futures prices.
Empirical data has been collected from bhav copies published
by the National Stock Exchange, India and then the data is
subjected to correlation analysis to find out the significance of
these parameters. The daily price data and open interest data
is collected for sixteen stocks and the index (NIFTY) for a
period of 4 years. The correlation between the change in
futures price and the change in open interest is calculated for
near month contracts of these seventeen futures contracts.

This primer serves as an introduction to the work of Longpath Labs, a futures think tank and innovations lab that seeks to leverage the transformative opportunities of the Intertidal—the complex adaptive space between paradigms—to help cultivate long-term ways of thinking, behaving, and being. With an aim toward collective flourishing and a concern for both immediate and far futures, Longpath asserts that a shift in mindset is essential. A Longpath Mindset is initiated by mindful self-awareness and three core practices: futures thinking, transgenerational empathy, and telos-alignment.

В статье рассматривается генезис и сущностное содержание понятий «патриотизм» и «национализм». Отмечается, что большинство теоретиков украинского национализма базируется в своих выкладках на устаревшей концепции примордиализма. Автор констатирует, что, когда цель превращения определенного народа в государственную нацию уже достигнута, национализм тем самым окончательно выполняет свою исторически конструктивную роль и должен трансформироваться в патриотизм. В статье акцентируется внимание на том, что национализм принципиально противоречит таким определяющим трендам современного мирового развития как глобализация, информатизация и мультикультурализм. Автор делает вывод, что, несмотря на сложный и противоречивый характер украинского социума, признание патриотизма жизненно важным фактором существования и развития украинского государства и лишения его метастаз этнонационализма являются необходимыми условиями обеспечения национальной безопасности, консолидации общества и динамичного прогресса Украины.

The world is moving forward at a fast pace, and the credit goes to ever growing technology. One such concept is IOT (Internet of things) with which automation is no longer a virtual reality. IOT connects various non-living objects through the internet and enables them to share information with their community network to automate processes for humans and makes their lives easier. The paper presents the future challenges of IoT , such as the technical (connectivity , compatibility and longevity , standards , intelligent analysis and actions , security), business (investment , modest revenue model etc.), societal (changing demands , new devices, expense, customer confidence etc.) and legal challenges (laws, regulations, procedures, policies etc.). A section also discusses the various myths that might hamper the progress of IOT, security of data being the most critical factor of all. An optimistic approach to people in adopting the unfolding changes brought by IOT will also help in its growth.

En los mercados financieros se efectúan transacciones de títulos valores con objetivos de rentabilidad, cobertura, movilización y optimización de activos financieros. Tales títulos tienen una primera manifestación en el ámbito económico y luego reciben regulación jurídica. Destacan por su novedad los derivados financieros y dentro de ellos los contratos de futuro. Estos son una figura novedosa que tiene sus orígenes en un contrato de compraventa pero que han evolucionado gracias a la ingeniería financiera a un acto jurídico con características que le son propias, no asimilable hoy a las figuras contractuales típicas de nuestra legislación. A estos contratos les serían aplicables las normas del Código de Comercio, en especial las relativas a la costumbre mercantil y en subsidio las disposiciones del Código Civil. La determinación de su naturaleza jurídica no es fácil. En este trabajo se los considera como un contrato atípico, nominativo, definitivo, consensual, principal, de adhesión y mercantil. Si opera en un mercado organizado requiere, además, que sea registrado en una Cámara de Compensación.

Hearing impairment (HI) affects 1/6 of the total population in the UK, this figure is rising due to ageing of the population from the baby-boom era (Matthews, 2014).

It has been noted that HI can have a substantial impact on one’s life, physically and emotionally. For example, 70% of people with hearing loss say that it affects their ability to fulfill tasks at work (Arrowsmith, 2014), this costs the UK £24.8m in lost productivity (Greengross, 2014). Reduction in communication can lead to feelings of isolation, and consequently other mental health decline, such as depression and cognitive decline. HI is the most modifiable factor in reducing instances of dementia; direct costs are estimated at 26 billion a year (Prince et al., 2017).

Despite these factors and the availability of free-of-charge (FOC) hearing aids (HA), ownership and frequency of use of such devices are minimal in the UK. Only 1/5 of 40-69 year olds with ‘substantial’ HI use a HA (Dawes et al., 2014).

The premise of this project was to identify the reasons for low ownership and frequency of use of HAs among those with HI and propose potential solutions. An extensive review of literature was carried out, the major reasons for this include stigmatisation of disability, poor comfort, perceived lack in benefit and issues with attainability. A review of existing devices and technology suggests that alternative listening devices are not currently capable to replace HAs, however, the qualities that would achieve this were defined: Be affordable, effective in improve hearing, self-fitting, desirable and have battery life to last a day.

Interviews with specialists and users were carried out to explore the potential obstacles of developing such a device and inform the design process.

The solutions proposed suggest effective ways of tackling the issue. Further development and testing is required to evidence the feasibility of the concepts.

In my design workshops, especially in workshops related to strategic design, design-driven innovation, or participatory design, I propose a scenario-based design process. In these processes, scenarios are not only a result of design activity, but a method to guide it.
This presentation synthesizes the process and illustrates a series of tools that can be used in scenario building.

Based on mathematics and engineering point of view, we aim to explore the establishment of model structure, and thus calculate the benefits and risks of a financial product. Specifically, we exploit a large amount of market data of futures options so as to address two issues in this work. The first issue is to discover an appropriate product choice and timing for profitable trading. Without loss of generality, we investigate the effectiveness of several trading constraints and technical indicators by scrutinizing and back testing with the long-term market data. The second issue is to use the spread strategies for risk control when being an options seller. Note that a spread position is constituted where one buys an option and sells another option against it. In general, we develop a scheme to simulate different trading strategies and thus identify some simple but profitable strategies. Experimental studies show that our strategies yield good profit in the TAIFEX market during 2009 to 2018.

What happened to the Venus Project since the death of Jacque Fresco?
Futurist Esmaeil Rahimi
The project is now holding workshops, courses, hosting international visitors, conferences, publishing journals, and running monthly and annual calendar schedules to continue the success story of Venus. The promotion of the intellectual heritage and vision of Professor Jacques Fresco is an important task that should be done by the project managers with great effort. The Venus project is on the right way because it comes from an inspirational perspective and massive knowledge. The project is now an organized whole, modeled on an innovative eco-system.

Kirja käsittelee tulevaisuustutkimuksen ennakkoluuloja futurolokiselta kannalta, sana viittaa pohjoismaisen mytologian hahmoon Loki. Tuloksena pohdiskeluista syntyi näkökulma  seitsemästätoista  tulevaisuustutkimuksen meemikategoriasta, joista näkökulmameemiä on tarkasteltu lähemmin.

Tutkimuksen kohteen vilahtelee mm. menippeia. Ennakkoluuloista käsitellään suhtautumista mm. ympäristönsuojeluun, protekstionismiin ja astrologiaan.
Kirja on 2. osa korpustrilogiasta, ensimmäinen osa on Myytti ja metodi, kolamas on kosmisen koostumus.

The changing market dynamics in addition to globalisation and increasing internationalisation and trade needs effective and improved cross-border payment system, but the currently existing systems were found to be ineffective simply because of the range of challenges and inefficiencies. These challenges range from the lack of transparency to the unavailability of real-time information related to foreign exchange; thereby calling for an improved and efficient platform and a system that can ensure improvement in cross-border payments and transactions.

Cozzolino Francesca, 2018, « Donner forme à l’avenir. Pratiques et discours de l’anticipation dans le champ du design », in Andrieu Chloé et Houdart Sophie, éd., La Composition du temps. Prédictions, événements, narrations historiques, Paris, Editions de Boccard, p. 77-92.

Dans cet article, nous nous intéressons aux pratiques des designers qui revendiquent l'existence de relations entre des pratiques d'anticipation et le design. Si l'on regarde l'histoire du design et que l'on retrace le rapport que les designers ont entretenu avec le réel, l'imaginaire et l'imaginé, nous pouvons distinguer deux pôles : l'un engage une construction du futur qui est fortement en relation avec l'idée d'innovation et emploie des méthodes prospectives, l'autre introduit la critique et le doute dans le futur et utilise comme méthode la fiction. En décrivant plus précisément la démarche d'un champ du design appelé « design spéculatif », nous montrons que ces visions, s'incarnant dans des objets dits « critiques », n'agissent pas comme des indicateurs du futur, mais, en nous montrant les « dérives » d'un avenir possible, nous invitent à réactiver notre imaginaire, tout en affirmant le pouvoir de l'imaginaire dans sa capacité à modeler le réel. En interrogeant le croisement fructueux entre design et fiction du réel, cette analyse entend contribuer à une réflexion anthropologique sur la façon dont certains groupes d'individus, par leurs savoir-faire, pensent et fabriquent « ce qui pourrait advenir » ou « ce qui pourrait être autrement ». Abstract This paper reviews the practices of designers who insist upon the existence of a relationship between anticipatory methods and design. When we look at the history of design and trace the connection that designers have maintained between reality and the imagination, we distinguish two poles: the first one, aiming to build the future, is intimately related to the idea of innovation and uses future-oriented methods; the second one uses fiction as method to inject criticism and doubt in the future. As we describe more precisely the approach used by the field called "speculative design", we show that these visions, taking form in "so-called critical objects", do not act as indicators of the future, but rather show us the downward slide of one possible future, and thus invite us to reactivate our imagination, while at the same time they affirm the imagination's power to shape reality. In examining the fruitful cross-pollination between design and fiction, this study aims to cast an anthropological view on the way that certain groups of individuals, by their craft, imagine and create "what could happen" or "what could be otherwise".

Den genetischen Code neu schreiben, mit Gedanken Geräte steuern, das Handeln fremder Menschen vorhersagen – einige Menschheitsträume sehen in unseren Tagen ihrer Verwirklichung entgegen, so scheint es. Diese Entwicklung wird einerseits getragen von Zuversicht und Enthusiasmus angesichts der Möglichkeiten, die damit eröffnet werden. Andererseits aber rufen sie Skepsis hervor und lösen Ängste aus, sei es aus Sorge über die Folgen, sollten ihre Verheißungen eintreten, sei es aus Sorge über ein mögliches Versagen in der Praxis. Je näher solche Vorstellungen ihrer Realisierung entgegengehen, desto intensiver und kontroverser werden die Debatten darüber. Ihre Virulenz führt die aktuelle Kunst in einer beeindruckenden Fülle und Breite vor.
Die Auseinandersetzung mit den ambivalenten Möglichkeiten, Erscheinungsweisen und Auswirkungen der Technik gehört zu den zentralen gesellschaftlichen Gegebenheiten seit dem Beginn der Moderne, als im Zuge der industriellen Revolution die Mechanisierung die Arbeits- und Lebenswelten der Menschen ebenso vollständig transformierte wie sie das Bild von Stadt und Land verändert hat. Ihrer historischen und gesellschaftlichen Bedeutung entsprechend, nimmt die Frage nach dem Verhältnis des Menschen zur Technik breiten Raum in der Kunst ein. Vom industriellen über das elektronische zum heutigen digitalen Zeitalter haben Künstlerinnen und Künstler auf die Herausforderungen des technischen Fortschritts auf unterschiedlichste und vielfältige Weise reagiert.
Eine herausragende Rolle spielt in diesem Zusammenhang die Thematisierung des Janusgesichtes der Technik im Werk des Malers Franz Radziwill (1895-1983). Die Faszination für den menschlichen Erfindergeist, der sich in Formen und Funktionen der technischen Geräte und Objekte manifestiert, neue Möglichkeiten des Handelns und der Erfahrung eröffnet und zugleich zu einer völlig neuen Gestaltung der Lebenswelt führt, durchzieht sein Werk genauso wie die bedrohliche Dimension des Technischen, die zu einem Gefühl der Entfremdung von der natürlichen Lebenswelt und der Versachlichung der menschlichen Beziehungen führt.
Ausgehend vom umfangreichen Bestand an Werken Radziwills in der Kunsthalle Emden, aus eigenem Besitz und der Sammlung Claus Hüppe, schlägt die Ausstellung den Bogen von seiner Zeit bis in die unmittelbare Gegenwart. Von den Beschwörungen des technischen Fortschritts bei Radziwill bis zu aktuellen künstlerischen Positionen reflektiert sie in exemplarischer Weise die Auseinandersetzung mit drängenden Fragen, die sich aus den technischen Innovationen seit dem letzten Jahrhundert ergeben. Im historischen Vergleich demonstriert sie die Paradigmenwechsel ebenso wie die anhaltende Aktualität und Virulenz einiger schon bei Radziwill akuter Themen – von der Entwicklung industrieller Produktions-, Transport- und Kommunikationssysteme, den Auswirkungen des technischen Fortschritts für die Umwelt bis zur derzeitigen algorithmischen Verarbeitung und Vernetzung von Information und der Rekombination und Synthese von Leben.
Deutlich wird, wie Künstlerinnen und Künstler zunehmend über Reaktion und Reflexion der Prozesse hinausgehen und sich selbst Kenntnisse wissenschaftlich-technischer Innovationen aneignen und das Feld ihrer Anwendungen im Hinblick auf ihre ästhetische und gesellschaftliche Relevanz mitbestimmen.

This paper reflects on the impact of the digital revolution on painting. It considers some of the implications of the recent and continuing advances in digital technologies. The debate on the future of painting in this era of digital revolution is a daunting challenge among painters, dealers, sponsors, commentators and art lovers, given the opinion that 'there is nothing you want to paint today that has not been painted before'. Considering the role of photography, digital painting and reproduction, is there any future for painting? Does the investment in these media propel the growth or the death of painting? These questions would shape, form and inform the focus of this essay.

American options allow early exercise, which yields an additional challenge when optimizing a portfolio of American options, besides the weights of each option. In this work, we construct strategies for an American option portfolio by exercising options at optimal timings with optimal weights determined concurrently. To model such portfolios, a reinforcement learning (Q-learning) algorithm is proposed, combining an iterative progressive hedging method and a quadratic approximation to Q-values by regression. By means of Monte Carlo simulation and empirical experiments using data from the SPY options market we evaluate the quality of our algorithms and examine their performance under various investment assumptions, such as different portfolio settings and distributions of the underlying asset returns. With discretized timings, our strategies work better in a relatively long time horizon and when the portfolio is hedged using the underlying instrument. Due to the highly-leveraged and risky nature of our strategies, overly risk-averse investors are proved not suitable for such investment opportunities.

Global teacher shortage is a serious concern with grave implications for the future of education. This calls for novel ways of addressing teacher roles. The economic benefits of tireless labour inspires the need for teachers who are unlimited by natural human demands, highlighting consideration for the affordances of robotics and Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) as currently obtainable in other areas of human life. This however demands designing robotic personalities that can take on independent teacher roles despite strong opinions that robots will not be able to fully replace humans in the classroom of the future. In this paper, we argue for a future classroom with independent robot teachers, highlighting the minimum capabilities required of such personalities in terms of personality, instructional delivery, social interaction and affect. We describe our project on the design of a robot teacher based on these. Possible directions for future system development and studies are highlighted.

Совсем Другие: Сборник феминистской и квир-фантастики / Сост. и ред. О. Шаталова, Г. Мамедов, Бишкек: Штаб-Press, 2018. 336 с. (Радикальное воображение).

В сборник вошли рассказы и визуальные проекты 15 активисток и активистов из Кыргызстана, Казахстана, России и США – феминисток, ЛГБТК+, активисток инклюзии и экозащиты. Все произведения новые, написаны, переведены или нарисованы в 2017 году специально для сборника и представляют собой наброски будущего – мира противоречивого, проблемного, но кардинально меняющегося в борьбе с патриархатом и другими формами неравенства. Темы, интересующие авторок и авторов: активистский сепаратизм (бескомпромиссное размежевание); революционные изменения репродуктивных технологий; телесные трансформации; права нечеловеческих субъектов; переосмысление понятия нормы; бессмертие и др.

L'architettura è un campo in cui l’intervento umano sul mondo provoca conseguenze rilevanti e durature, spesso materialmente persistenti per centinaia e centinaia di anni. Sarebbe quindi naturale aspettarsi che gli architetti riflettano in abbondanza, per abitudine consolidata, su quali siano i propri obblighi morali nei confronti delle generazioni future . È sorprendente constatare che non è così. L'architettura – come disciplina, come area di ricerca scientifica, come cultura professionale, come pensiero consostanziale ad un agire – non prende solitamente in effettiva considerazione il problema dei nostri obblighi verso le generazioni future. Questo articolo cerca di fare il punto sui modi in cui potrebbe farlo, se volesse.

Si les historiens considèrent que l’on ne peut pas faire rejaillir un passé bien enterré, ils sont aussi d’accord pour dire qu’on ne peut anticiper rationnellement l’avenir. L’Histoire n’est pas cyclique et ne se répète pas, elle est linéaire et imparfaite. D’ailleurs, celle-ci s’écrit le plus souvent à l’imparfait. Parler de l’an 2000 pourrait laisser penser à revenir sur les faits qui ont marqué l’arrivée de ce nouveau siècle. En réalité, ici, il ne s’agit pas de parler du passé, mais bien du futur. L’intérêt de cette étude ne se porte pas sur ce qu’il s’est déjà produit, mais sur ce que l’on pensait qu’il allait se produire. En effet, le XXème siècle a montré une évolution de la vision de ce futur bien implantée dans le psychisme, l’inconscient ou les représentations collectives. Les politiques, le développement économique, social et culturel a permis de faire rayonner de fabuleuses promesses montrant que par-delà les guerres, les crises et les périls qui guettaient le monde, c’était en réalité l’espoir et le rêve d’un avenir meilleur qui finirait par triompher. Mais de l’autre côté, ces prétentions au merveilleux étaient émaillées de sombres alternatives. Au cours de l’Histoire, les changements de siècle ont été empreints aux pensées eschatologiques et d’innombrables superstitions envenimaient la vision d’une fin imminente. L’accélération du monde avec l’arrivée de la modernisation a tendu à voir l’an 2000 comme plus proche qu’on ne le croyait. L’an 2000 a été vu comme un horizon temporel allégorique des temps futurs, des temps espérés ou des temps craints. Ce cap n’est rien d’autre qu’un pont séparant deux millénaires, un instant charnière à la portée symbolique forte, un court répit métaphorique entre un passé et un futur. Notre étude est d’autant plus intéressante que le futur d’hier est devenu le passé d’aujourd’hui et nous permet donc de confronter les suppositions, prédictions et superstitions d’hier à la réalité de ce qu’est devenu le monde dans lequel nous vivons. Le but de cette présente étude est donc de s’intéresser à un travail de prospective. C’est donc pour cela qu’il faut s’orienter vers une histoire des « attitudes mentales » et des « représentations de la psychologie collective » à la manière de Georges Duby et sa pensée de l’an Mil. Finalement, l’an 2000 était le symbole même de l’avenir. Aujourd’hui, l’avenir a 20 ans et il est temps de faire la rétrospective de la prospective.