Section 6Several TC forecast support problems, including the nature of tropical cyclone characteristics, forecaster training, research and logistics, are identified in the following sub-sections.
5.1 Year Round Forecast Requirements and Multi-storm Forecast Problem
Due to the Southern Hemisphere forecast mission requirements, JTWC has no significant "off season". During the spring and fall transition seasons, TCs may develop opposite each other in each hemisphere, forming "twins" or "twin TCs" (Dean, 1954; Keen, 1982; Lander and Morrissey, 1988).
The multi-storm nature of the western Pacific and the South Indian Ocean also presents challenges. Augmentation of forecasters and their assistants is frequently necessary. As a consequence, time and personnel management is a major skill that must be quickly mastered. Time management has been aided with hardware and software upgrades. This makes time available to concentrate on forecast preparation and technique development. Regardless of the workload, each basin and each TC receives the same high level of emphasis.
5.2 Forecaster Experience Level/Workload
The human element is crucial in weather forecasting (Doswell and Lemon, 1981; Doswell, 1986). Tropical cyclone forecasters should be well motivated, educated, trained and should have a talent for tropical cyclone weather and weather forecasting. In addition, navy tropical forecasters should be able to utilize the forecast guidance and other data to reach a decision by themselves when radio silence is imposed. The forecasters should be trained to sense when TC motion and intensity guidances have gone awry. In addition the forecasters should be capable of explaining and defining the reasons for their own forecasts or those of others to an end user who may or may not have any meteorological background.
Probably the largest difference between JTWC and other warning agencies aside from the vast AOR and the lack of an off season, is the military aspect of the center. The typical tour length of a Typhoon Duty Officer (TDO) is two years. In contrast to the experience levels of forecasters at NHC, this is a very short period of time. That means training and certification at JTWC must be efficient and time limited (usually three months). Since JTWC is so busy there are many "learning opportunities" with TCs in the western Pacific and South Indian Oceans. As a result, hands-on experience is gained rapidly. Even so, a forecaster really needs to go through an entire year to experience the important seasonal changes that occur in each hemisphere. Thus, a forecaster typically becomes more effective during his/her second forecast season. Compiling statistics, deriving final best tracks of TCs, and writing individual storm summaries also takes up much of the TDO's on and off duty time.
5.3 Lack of Research and Development
Tropical cyclone data, research, and forecasting technique development are important to operational tropical cyclone forecasting. Spreading resources thin to cover the needs of each basin has the potential of significantly diluting the research and technique development effort. Careful planning of Navy and Air Force programs has eliminated redundancy, and has resulted in research and development efforts that have application in all basins of interest. Tapping already developed capabilities of other warning agencies has also enhanced JTWC's capabilities at minimal cost. Interagency cooperation will be even more important as fiscal austerity impacts TC research and development at all warning centers.
5.4 Problems with Multiple Warning Agencies in a Basin
The existence of multiple TC forecasting agencies in the same basin results in the natural tendency for customers to compare forecast options and question the differences, especially when divergence of the forecasts is significant. A large amount of divergence of forecasts between agencies occasionally occurs and can lead to perceptions, founded or unfounded, by the customer that a particular agency is better or worse than that customer's primary warning agency. The results may degrade credibility and create pressure to mimic the other agency's forecast. While a convergence of forecasts is in the best interest of overlapping agencies with common AORS, it must be based on meteorological fact and not political considerations. To preclude this, close interagency communication and cooperation is the norm in multi-basin forecasting. JTWC confers with several of the warning agencies in its AOR when significant discrepancies occur between warnings.
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Chapter 1