Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide
Chapter 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SUPPORT
Contributors of Chapter 1: L. E. Carr, LCDR, USN/NPS, J.-H. Chu, NRL, D. K. Edson, LT, USN/Naval Academy, C. P. Guard, Tropical Weather Services, Guam, N. D. Gural, LCDR, USN/USS Independence, R. A. Jeffries, LT, USN/NPS, C. J. Neumann, Science Application International Corp., Monterey, CA., C. R. Sampson, NRL, and F. H. Wells, JTWC, Guam
Initially published as NOARL Technical Note 253, May 1992; Revision date: June 1995; HTML conversion date: 15 January 1998
Abstract
One of the keys to safe and successful naval operations in the tropics is a thorough understanding of tropical meteorology (Adamson and Kosco, 1967; Calhoun, 1981). The Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide (TCFRG) is designed as a ready reference to assist weather forecasters in providing tropical meteorology support to staff commanders. This chapter provides an overview of tropical cyclone warning products, major warning center operations, tropical cyclone warning terminology, and a significant range of tropical cyclone phenomena that could be encountered in the world marine environment. Four key references of this chapter are Sheets (1990), Jeffries, et al. (1992), Guard, et al. (1992), and Neumann (1993).
***** The end of Abstract *****
CHAPTER 1 CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Section 1. WARNING SUPPORT REGIONS
- 1.1 Western Pacific Region
- 1.1.1 JTWC Warning Support Charter
- 1.1.2 Western North Pacific and North Indian Ocean Warnings and Bulletin Headers
- 1.1.3 Western South Pacific and South Indian Ocean Warnings and Bulletin Headers
- 1.1.4 Other JTWC Products
- 1.2 Eastern Pacific Region
- 1.2.1 North Eastern Pacific Warnings
- 1.2.2 North Central Pacific Warnings
- 1.2.3 South Eastern Pacific Warnings (WHPS(xx) PHNC)
- 1.2.4 Civilian Advisories on Hurricanes, Tropical Storms,and Depressions for the Eastern Pacific
- 1.3 Atlantic Region
- 1.3.1 Atlantic Warnings (WHNT(xx) KNGU)
- 1.3.2 Civilian Advisories on Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, and Depressions for the Atlantic
1.4 Additional Regions and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Agencies
Section 2. WARNING SCOPE AND PROCEDURES - HAZARDS TO MILITARY OPERATIONS
- 2.1 Warning Interpretation
- 2.1.1 Warning Accuracy
- 2.1.2 Conveying Warning Accuracy
- 2.1.3 Alternate Forecast Scenarios
- 2.1.4 Decreases in Forecast Accuracy Associated With Warning Lengths
Section 3. MULTI-BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING PROCEDURES
- 3.1 JTWC's Four Step Approach
- 3.1.1 Step One: Analysis and Forecast Initialization
- 3.1.2 Step Two: Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
- 3.1.3 Step Three: Tropical Cyclone Warning Preparation
- 3.1.4 Step Four: Tropical Cyclone Warning Dissemination
- 3.2 NHC's Five Step Approach
- 3.2.1 Step One: Before the Storm
- 3.2.2 Step Two: Forecast Tools and Techniques
- 3.2.3 Step Three: The Forecast Process
- 3.2.4 Step Four: Meteorological/Hydrological Coordination
- 3.2.5 Step Five: The Warning
Section 4. IMPACT OF FORECAST ACCURACY, DIFFICULTY AND VARIABILITY
- 4.1 Track Forecast Accuracy
- 4.1.1 Western Pacific Track Forecast Accuracy
- 4.1.2 Indian Ocean and South Pacific Track Forecast Accuracy
- 4.1.3 Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Track Forecast Accuracy
- 4.2 Results of Large Cross Track Forecast Errors
- 4.3 Basin Classification By Forecast Difficulty Level (FDL)
- 4.3.1 Effect of Forecast Interval on FDL
- 4.3.2 Effect of Latitude on FDL
- 4.3.3 Effect on Erratic Movers on FDL
- 4.4 Variability of Track Forecast Duration and Distance
- 4.5 Intensity and Surface Wind Structure Variability
- 4.5.1 Largest Wind Radius
- 4.5.2 Most Intense Tropical Cyclones
- 4.5.3 Midget Tropical Cyclones
- 4.5.4 Super Typhoons
- 4.5.5 Rapid Developers
- 4.5.6 Intensity Estimate Variability From Different Forecast Centers
- 4.5.7 Max Wind Estimates
Section 5. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST SUPPORT PROBLEMS
- 5.1 Year-round Forecast Requirements and Multi-storm Forecast Problem
- 5.2 Forecaster Experience Level/Workload
- 5.3 Lack of Research and Development
- 5.4 Problems with Multiple Warning Agencies in a Basin
- Section 6. ADVANCES IN EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY
- APPENDIX A - ABBREVIATIONS and ACRONYMS
- APPENDIX B - METEOROLOGICAL TERMS and JARGON
- REFERENCES
- ***** The end of CONTENTS *****
- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The support of the sponsor, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command, PMW-165, is gratefully acknowledged. The reviews and constructive comments of Mr. R. E. Englebretson, Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) at Monterey were very helpful. Special thanks are extended to Mr. R. E. Gilmore, SAIC, and Mr. C. Moren, MAR at Monterey for preparing some figures and tables, and to Ms. J. May, NRL at Monterey, for searching references.
***** The end of ACKNOWLEDGMENTS *****
Revision date: 9 March 1999
Home
Chapter 1
