Appendix A - Abbreviations and AcronymsBergeron (1959) has studied the history of meteorology and has stated that weather forecasting has progressed mainly due to improvements in three areas: (1) Data: the meteorological observations, (2) Man-machine mix: the tool used for making data accessible to a purposeful mental, graphical or mathematical-mechanical treatment, and (3) Physical understanding of the weather and its mathematical expressions: our models of atmospheric structure and their degree of rational physical approach to the problem. Tropical cyclone forecasting will progress in a similar manner.
The challenges of multi-basin forecasting at JTWC and NHC are varied, but generally center around: improving time and information management, enhancing analysis and forecasting; increasing the physical understanding of meteorological processes, and elevating warning effectiveness.
The removal of dedicated reconnaissance aircraft from the western North Pacific in 1987 presented many challenges to JTWC. In response to this loss, JTWC and the collocated satellite analysis and technique development sections have implemented many innovative changes to enhance analysis and forecasting capabilities. These changes revolve around identification and acquisition of new data sources, new automation, improved ATCF software, new and improved forecast models, and a quantum leap in the application of meteorological satellite data. New infrared enhancement curves, animation techniques, exploitation of microwave imagery data for TC location and 35 kt wind radius determination, and an innovative wind distribution model that provides realistic asymmetrical wind profiles have enabled JTWC and NHC to make improvements to their overall analysis and forecasting capabilities, respectively. The development of artificial intelligence and expert systems, such as knowledge engineering efforts of neural network and fuzzy logic systems and rule-based expert systems will do much to increase the efficiency of information and time management, and training.
JTWC and NHC work hand-in-hand with other national and international agencies to improve forecast and warning capabilities, both real-time during a specific TC, and over longer periods for long-term improvement. JTWC's Annual Tropical Cyclone Report and NHC's Diagnostic Report continue to be the most timely of their kind in the world.
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Chapter 1