Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide

Chapter 3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

Contributors: R. A. Jeffries, LT, USN/NLMOC, R. J. Miller, WSFO, Spokane, WA, and J.-H. Chu, NRL

Initially published as NRL Report NRL/PU/7515--93-0007, April 1993; Revision date: June 1995; HTML conversion date: 24 January 1998

Abstract

One of the keys to safe and successful naval operations in the tropics is a thorough understanding of tropical meteorology. The Tropical Cyclone Forecaster's Reference Guide is designed primarily as a ready reference for midlatitude forecasters required to provide tropical meteorology support to staff commanders. This chapter presents an overview of tropical cyclone formation forecast support. Subjects discussed include tropical cyclone formation forecast products, major warning center operations, tropical cyclone formation terminology, and significant ranges of tropical cyclone formation phenomena by basin that could be encountered in the world marine environment. A key reference of this chapter is Jeffries and Miller (1993).

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Introduction

SECTION 1. FACTORS AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

1.1 Overview of Tropical Cyclone Formation

1.2 Dynamics of the Vertical Column

1.3 Thermodynamic Requirements for Formation

1.4 Ventilation

1.5 Summary

SECTION 2. ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES

2.1 Earth's Vorticity

2.2 Low-level Relative Vorticity

2.3 Vertical Wind Shear

2.4 SST and Mixed Level Depth

2.5 Potentially Unstable Troposphere

2.6 Mid-Troposphere Humidity

SECTION 3. DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTORS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

3.1 Sources of Increased Low-level Vorticity

3.1.1 Low-level Wind Surges

3.2 Vertical Wind Shear

SECTION 4. REGIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CLIMATE

4.1 Western North Pacific

4.2 North Indian Ocean

4.3 Southwest Indian

4.4 Australia

4.5 South Pacific

4.6 North Atlantic

4.7 Eastern and Central North Pacific

4.8 Other Basins

4.9 Annual Variation

4.10 Seasonal Variation

SECTION 5. EFFECTS ON LONG TERM ATMOSPHERIC OSCILLATIONS

5.1 El Nino and Southern Oscillation

5.2 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

5.3 Global Scale Oscillations

SECTION 6. FORMATION FORECASTING PROCEDURES

6.1 Formation Forecasting Procedures at JTWC

6.2 Formation Forecasting Procedures at NHC

6.3 Formation Forecasting at CPHC

6.4 Formation Forecasting Procedures for Single Station and Ship

6.5 Formation Forecasting Thumb Rules

REFERENCES

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This project was partially sponsored by the Oceanographer of the Navy through the Space and Naval Warfare System Command Program Office.

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