MIT6 041F10 Final

6.041/6.
431 Fall 2010 Final Exam

Wednesday, December 15, 9:00AM - 12:00noon.
DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE OVER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

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Question 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 (a) 2.2 (b) 2.2 (c) Score Out of 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Question 2.3 (a) 2.3 (b) 2.4 (a) 2.4 (b) 2.4 (c) 2.4 (d) 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 (a) 2.9 (b) Your Grade Score Out of 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 100
Show your work and provide brief justications for your answers, except for parts where you are told that a justication is not needed. Unless instructed otherwise, for full credit answers should be algebraic ex pressions (no integrals), in simplied form. These expressions may involve constants such as or e, and need not be evaluated numerically. This quiz has 2 problems, worth a total of 100 points. You may tear apart page 3 and 4, as per your convenience, but you must turn them in together with the rest of the booklet. Write your solutions in this quiz booklet, only solutions in this quiz booklet will be graded. Be neat! You will not get credit if we cant read it. You are allowed three two-sided, handwritten, 8.5 by 11 formula sheets. Calculators are not allowed.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2010)
Problem 1. (32 points) Consider a Markov chain {Xn ; n = 0, 1, . . .}, specied by the following transition diagram.
0.6 0.4 1 2 0.1 0.5 0.3 3 0.9
0.2
1. (4 points) Given that the chain starts with X0 = 1, nd the probability that X2 = 2. 2. (4 points) Find the steady-state probabilities 1 , 2 , 3 of the dierent states. In case you did not do part (b) correctly, in all subsequent parts of this problem you can just use the symbols i : you do not need to plug in actual numbers. 3. (4 points) Let Yn = Xn Xn1 . Thus, Yn = 1 indicates that the nth transition was to the right, Yn = 0 indicates it was a self-transition, and Yn = 1 indicates it was a transition to the left. Find lim P(Yn = 1).
n
4. (4 points) Is the sequence Yn a Markov chain? Justify your answer. 5. (4 points) Given that the nth transition was a transition to the right (Yn = 1), nd the probability that the previous state was state 1. (You can assume that n is large.) 6. (4 points) Suppose that X0 = 1. Let T be dened as the rst positive time at which the state is again equal to 1. Show how to nd E[T ]. (It is enough to write down whatever equation(s) needs to be solved; you do not have to actually solve it/them or to produce a numerical answer.) 7. (4 points) Does the sequence X1 , X2 , X3 , . . . converge in probability? If yes, to what? If not, just say no without explanation. 8. (4 points) Let Zn = max{X1 , . . . , Xn }. Does the sequence Z1 , Z2 , Z3 , . . . converge in probabil ity? If yes, to what? If not, just say no without explanation. Problem 2. (68 points) Alice shows up at an Athena* cluster at time zero and spends her time exclusively in typing emails. The times that her emails are sent are a Poisson process with rate A per hour. 1. (3 points) What is the probability that Alice sent exactly three emails during the time interval [1, 2]? 2. Let Y1 and Y2 be the times at which Alices rst and second emails were sent. (a) (3 points) Find E[Y2 | Y1 ]. (b) (3 points) Find the PDF of Y12 . (c) (3 points) Find the joint PDF of Y1 and Y2 . Page 3 of 20
*Athena is MIT's UNIX-based computing environment. OCW does not provide access to it.

3. You show up at time 1 and you are told that Alice has sent exactly one email so far. (Only give answers here, no need to justify them.) (a) (3 points) What is the conditional expectation of Y2 given this information? (b) (3 points) What is the conditional expectation of Y1 given this information? 4. Bob just nished exercising (without email access) and sits next to Alice at time 1. He starts typing emails at time 1, and res them according to an independent Poisson process with rate B . (a) (5 points) What is the PMF of the total number of emails sent by the two of them together during the interval [0, 2]? (b) (5 points) What is the expected value of the total typing time associated with the email that Alice is typing at the time that Bob shows up? (Here, total typing time includes the time that Alice spent on that email both before and after Bobs arrival.) (c) (5 points) What is the expected value of the time until each one of them has sent at least one email? (Note that we count time starting from time 0, and we take into account any emails possibly sent out by Alice during the interval [0, 1].) (d) (5 points) Given that a total of 10 emails were sent during the interval [0, 2], what is the probability that exactly 4 of them were sent by Alice? 5. (5 points) Suppose that A = 4. Use Chebyshevs inequality to nd an upper bound on the probability that Alice sent at least 5 emails during the time interval [0, 1]. Does the Markov inequality provide a better bound? 6. (5 points) You do not know A but you watch Alice for an hour and see that she sent exactly 5 emails. Derive the maximum likelihood estimate of A based on this information. 7. (5 points) We have reasons to believe that A is a large number. Let N be the number of emails sent during the interval [0, 1]. Justify why the CLT can be applied to N , and give a precise statement of the CLT in this case. 8. (5 points) Under the same assumption as in last part, that A is large, you can now pretend that N is a normal random variable. Suppose that you observe the value of N . Give an (approx imately) 95% condence interval for A . State precisely what approximations you are making. Possibly useful facts: The cumulative normal distribution satises (1.645) = 0.95 and (1.96) = 0.975. 9. You are now told that A is actually the realized value of an exponential random variable , with parameter 2:
0.
f () = 2e2 , (a) (5 points) Find E[N 2 ]. (b) (5 points) Find the linear least squares estimator of given N .
Page 4 of 20

Problem 1. (32 points) Consider a Markov chain {Xn ; n = 0, 1, . . .}, specied by the following transition diagram.
0.6 0.4 1 2 0.1 0.5 0.3 3 0.9
0.2
1. (4 points) Given that the chain starts with X0 = 1, nd the probability that X2 = 2.
2. (4 points) Find the steady-state probabilities 1 , 2 , 3 of the dierent states.
Page 5 of 20

In case you did not do part (b) correctly, in all subsequent parts of this problem you can just use the symbols i : you do not need to plug in actual numbers. 3. (4 points) Let Yn = Xn Xn1 . Thus, Yn = 1 indicates that the nth transition was to the right, Yn = 0 indicates it was a self-transition, and Yn = 1 indicates it was a transition to the left. Find lim P(Yn = 1).
n
4. (4 points) Is the sequence Yn a Markov chain? Justify your answer.
Page 6 of 20

5. (4 points) Given that the nth transition was a transition to the right (Yn = 1), nd the probability that the previous state was state 1. (You can assume that n is large.)
6. (4 points) Suppose that X0 = 1. Let T be dened as the rst positive time at which the state is again equal to 1. Show how to nd E[T ]. (It is enough to write down whatever equation(s) needs to be solved; you do not have to actually solve it/them or to produce a numerical answer.)
Page 7 of 20

7. (4 points) Does the sequence X1 , X2 , X3 , . . . converge in probability? If yes, to what? If not, just say no without explanation.
8. (4 points) Let Zn = max{X1 , . . . , Xn }. Does the sequence Z1 , Z2 , Z3 , . . . converge in probabil ity? If yes, to what? If not, just say no without explanation.
Page 8 of 20

Problem 2. (68 points) Alice shows up at an Athena* cluster at time zero and spends her time exclusively in typing emails. The times that her emails are sent are a Poisson process with rate A per hour. 1. (3 points) What is the probability that Alice sent exactly three emails during the time interval [1, 2]?
2. Let Y1 and Y2 be the times at which Alices rst and second emails were sent. (a) (3 points) Find E[Y2 | Y1 ].
*Athena is MIT's UNIX-based computing environment. OCW does not provide access to it.
Page 9 of 20

(b) (3 points) Find the PDF of Y12 .
(c) (3 points) Find the joint PDF of Y1 and Y2 .
Page 10 of 20

3. You show up at time 1 and you are told that Alice has sent exactly one email so far. (Only give answers here, no need to justify them.) (a) (3 points) What is the conditional expectation of Y2 given this information?
(b) (3 points) What is the conditional expectation of Y1 given this information?
Page 11 of 20

4. Bob just nished exercising (without email access) and sits next to Alice at time 1. He starts typing emails at time 1, and res them according to an independent Poisson process with rate B . (a) (5 points) What is the PMF of the total number of emails sent by the two of them together during the interval [0, 2]?
Page 12 of 20

(b) (5 points) What is the expected value of the total typing time associated with the email that Alice is typing at the time that Bob shows up? (Here, total typing time includes the time that Alice spent on that email both before and after Bobs arrival.)
Page 13 of 20

(c) (5 points) What is the expected value of the time until each one of them has sent at least one email? (Note that we count time starting from time 0, and we take into account any emails possibly sent out by Alice during the interval [0, 1].)
Page 14 of 20

(d) (5 points) Given that a total of 10 emails were sent during the interval [0, 2], what is the probability that exactly 4 of them were sent by Alice?
Page 15 of 20

5. (5 points) Suppose that A = 4. Use Chebyshevs inequality to nd an upper bound on the probability that Alice sent at least 5 emails during the time interval [0, 1]. Does the Markov inequality provide a better bound?
6. (5 points) You do not know A but you watch Alice for an hour and see that she sent exactly 5 emails. Derive the maximum likelihood estimate of A based on this information.
Page 16 of 20

7. (5 points) We have reasons to believe that A is a large number. Let N be the number of emails sent during the interval [0, 1]. Justify why the CLT can be applied to N , and give a precise statement of the CLT in this case.
Page 17 of 20

8. (5 points) Under the same assumption as in last part, that A is large, you can now pretend that N is a normal random variable. Suppose that you observe the value of N . Give an (approx imately) 95% condence interval for A . State precisely what approximations you are making. Possibly useful facts: The cumulative normal distribution satises (1.645) = 0.95 and (1.96) = 0.975.
Page 18 of 20

9. You are now told that A is actually the realized value of an exponential random variable , with parameter 2:
0.
f () = 2e2 , (a) (5 points) Find E[N 2 ].
Page 19 of 20

(b) (5 points) Find the linear least squares estimator of given N .
Page 20 of 20
MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu
6.041 / 6.431 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability

Fall 2010
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6.041/6.

431 Fall 2010 Final Exam

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE OVER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2. (4 points) Find the steady-state probabilities 1 , 2 , 3 of the dierent states.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

4. (4 points) Is the sequence Yn a Markov chain? Justify your answer.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

(c) (3 points) Find the joint PDF of Y1 and Y2 .

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

(b) (3 points) What is the conditional expectation of Y1 given this information?

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu

6.041 / 6.431 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability

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