Smithson, J. (2007) - Rediscovering Gann's Law of Vibration (15 P.)
Smithson, J. (2007) - Rediscovering Gann's Law of Vibration (15 P.)
Smithson, J. (2007) - Rediscovering Gann's Law of Vibration (15 P.)
BY JAMES SMITHSON
INTRODUCTION
William D. Gann (1878 to 1955) was an outstanding technical
analyst. He was also a prolific teacher of how to make speculation a
profitable profession, writing some seven books and producing two
courses on trading the stock and commodity markets. However,
Gann's superlative skill was his ability to forecast accurately the
stock and commodity markets. Ganns forecasting method was based
upon what he called the Law Of Vibration. This paper seeks to
rediscover Ganns Law Of Vibration.
GANNS GREAT DISCOVERY OF AUGUST 8TH 1908
Almost exactly one hundred years ago Gann made one of his most
important discoveries, if not his most important discovery.
More specifically, as Gann recorded in his booklet entitled Why
Money Is Lost On Commodities And Stocks And How To Make Profits
(1954):
1908 May 12th left Oklahoma City for New York City. August 8th
made one of (his) greatest mathematical discoveries for predicting
the trend of stocks and commodities. Started trading with a capital
of $300 and made $25,000. Started another account with $130 and
made $12,000 in thirty days time.
On August 8 1908 Gann was 30 years old. Moreover Gann was 76
years old when in 1954 he wrote his booklet Why Money Is Lost On
Commodities And Stocks And How To Make Profits. Therefore Gann
clearly made an important discovery on August 8 1908 because he
recalled that precise date 46 years later.
In December 1909 Gann gave an interview to the Ticker And
Investment Digest magazine. That was sixteen months after his
important discovery of August 8 1908. The overall conclusion from
this interview is that Gann had discovered a unique method of
precisely forecasting the trend of stocks and commodities, which
was based upon what he called the Law Of Vibration, and he was
achieving great financial success in its practical application.
Therefore Ganns major discovery of August 8 1908 appears to have
been some crucial and practical part of his forecasting method, that
he called the Law Of Vibration. Sixteen months later, in his interview
to the Ticker And Investment Digest, Gann provided a partial
explanation of this Law Of Vibration.
0.0396 cents per day). From that point the long-term uptrend of
U.S. Steel was resumed.
An important point from this example is that Gann did not merely
use his so-called Gann angles as a crude measure of the rate of
vibration of stocks and commodities. More specifically, he did not use
them simply to measure the doubling and halving of the rate of
vibration. Rather, he also discovered and employed sub-shells within
a principal energy level. This is analogous to modern quantum
theory. Therefore we have discovered another important principle of
Ganns Law Of Vibration; namely the rate of vibration of stocks and
commodities, as measured by so-called Gann angles, conforms to a
series of principal energy levels and sub-shells. As we have seen, an
important implication (and practical application) of this is that rates
of vibration, as measured by these principal energy levels and subshells, constitute support and resistance levels. This therefore
clarifies the statement made by Gann: By knowing the exact
vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what
point each will receive support and at what point the greatest
resistance is to be met (Ticker interview).
Moreover, this principle in turn sheds light upon a somewhat obscure
concept that Gann briefly introduced in both his stock market course
and his commodities course, namely the concept of lost motion:
As there is lost motion in every kind of machinery, so there is
lost motion in the stock market due to momentum, which drives
a stock slightly above or below a resistance level. The average
lost motion is 1 7/8 points.
When a stock is very active and advances or declines fast on
heavy volume, it will often go from 1 to 1 7/8 points above a
halfway point or other strong resistance level and not go 3
points. The same rule applies on a decline. It will often pass an
important resistance point by 1 7/8 points but not go 3 full
points beyond it. That is why I advise using a stop-loss order 3
points above a top or 3 points below a bottom (W. D. Gann
Stock Market Course, chapter 10).
In summary therefore, from examining examples of the practical
application of Ganns Law Of Vibration, we have identified three
further principles of the Law Of Vibration:
13) The rate of vibration of stocks and commodities conforms
to a series of principal energy levels and sub-shells. More
specifically, the principal energy levels equate to a doubling
and halving of the rate of vibration and the sub-shells equate
to a fourfold division of a principal energy level.
14) These principal energy levels and sub-shells constitute
important support and resistance points.