Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 41 views

    Little Probability

    Uploaded by

    Seaton Harns
    1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability theory, including sample spaces, events, axioms of probability, and propositions related to probability. 2. It introduces concepts like the inclusion-exclusion principle and Boole's inequality for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events. 3. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using these concepts, such as finding the probability of an event being divisible by 3 or 5, or the probability of a patient's appointment characteristics.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Little Probability

    Uploaded by

    Seaton Harns
    41 views2 pages
    1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability theory, including sample spaces, events, axioms of probability, and propositions related to probability. 2. It introduces concepts like the inclusion-exclusion principle and Boole's inequality for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events. 3. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using these concepts, such as finding the probability of an event being divisible by 3 or 5, or the probability of a patient's appointment characteristics.

    Original Description:

    little probability

    Original Title

    little probability

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability theory, including sample spaces, events, axioms of probability, and propositions related to probability. 2. It introduces concepts like the inclusion-exclusion principle and Boole's inequality for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events. 3. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using these concepts, such as finding the probability of an event being divisible by 3 or 5, or the probability of a patient's appointment characteristics.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    41 views2 pages

    Little Probability

    Uploaded by

    Seaton Harns
    1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability theory, including sample spaces, events, axioms of probability, and propositions related to probability. 2. It introduces concepts like the inclusion-exclusion principle and Boole's inequality for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events. 3. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities using these concepts, such as finding the probability of an event being divisible by 3 or 5, or the probability of a patient's appointment characteristics.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    AMS 311, Handout 3 Spring Semester, 2004 Review of the development of probability theory: Solving gambling problems is the

    origin of the equiprobable model theory. Axiomatic probability theory developed to deal with harder problems. Section 2.2: Sample Spaces and Events Sample Space: the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Events: any subset of a sample space Use of intersection and union to define events of interest Recall basic set theory algebra: the definition of the complement of a set, commutative, associative, distributive laws, DeMorgans laws. These are illustrated in Venn diagrams. Also, E = EF EF c . There are two DeMorgans laws: ( Ei ) c = Eic , and ( Ei ) c = Eic .
    i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n n

    Section 2.3 Axioms of Probability The axioms of probability theory 1. For any event E, P( E ) 0. 2. For the sample space S, P( S ) = 1. 3. If {E1 , E 2 , E 3 , } is a sequence of mutually exclusive events (that is events for which Ei E j = ), then P( E i ) =
    i =1

    P( E ).
    i =1 i

    2.4 Some Simple Propositions Proposition 4.1. For any event E, P(Ec)=1-P(E). Proposition 4.2. If EF, then P(E)P(F). Also, if EF, then P(F-E)=P(FEc)=P(F)-P(E). Proposition 4.3. If E and F are any two events, P(EF)=P(E)+P(F)-P(EF).

    A number is chosen at random from the set of numbers {1, 2, 3, , 1000}. What is the probability that it is divisible by 3 or 5 (i.e., either 3 or 5 or both)? Answer is 467/1000.
    Extra! Booles (Bonferronis) Inequality If E and F are any two events, P(EF)P(E)+P(F).

    This is a crucial fact to have handy in applied statistical work.


    If E and F are any two events, P(E)=P(EF)+P(EFc).

    Example. In a community, 32% of the population are male smokers; 27% are female smokers. What percentage of this community smoke? Answer 59%. Odds in favor of an event A are r to s if P(A)=r/(r+s). Odds against an event A are r to s, if P(A)=s/(r+s). If P(A)=p, then the odds in favor of A are p to 1-p. Generalizations of probability of union of two events: If E1, E2, E3 are any three events, then P ( E1 E 2 E3 ) = P( E1 ) + P( E 2 ) + P( E3 ) P( E1 E 2 ) P( E1 E3 ) P( E 2 E3 ) + P( E1 E 2 E3 ). Example. A doctor has 520 patients, of which 1. 230 are hypertensive (T) 2. 185 are diabetic (D) 3. 35 are hypochondriac (C) and diabetic 4. 25 are all three 5. 150 are none 6. 140 are only hypertensive 7. 15 are hypertensive and hypochondriac but not diabetic. Find the probability that the doctors next appointment is hypochondriac but neither diabetic nor hypertensive. Assume that appointments are all random. Answer 30/520. Solution by completing Venn Diagram or by laying out a 23 contingency table. Generalization is called the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle. Proposition 4.4: P ( E1 E 2 E n ) =

    P( E ) P( E
    i =1 i i1 <i2

    i1

    E i2 ) +

    + (1) r +1
    E i2

    i1 <i2 < < ir

    P( E

    i1

    E i2

    E ir ) +

    + (1) n +1 P( E1 E 2
    n r

    E n ).

    The summation

    i1 <i2 < < ir

    P( E

    i1

    E ir ) is taken over all of the

    ( ) possible subsets of size

    r of the set {1, 2, , n}.

    End of Handout

    You might also like

    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy