DR Reddy's Lab
DR Reddy's Lab
DR Reddy's Lab
Table of Contents
Case Summary............................................................................................................................................... 2 Identification of Problems ............................................................................................................................ 3 Theories to Solve problems .......................................................................................................................... 4 List of alternative Solutions to the Problem ................................................................................................. 5 Analysis and Identification of the Right Alternative ..................................................................................... 6 Findings and Recommendation .................................................................................................................... 9
Case Summary
The case talks about Indias Dr Reddys Laboratories Limited trying to acquire Betapharm, the fourthlargest generic drug manufacturer in Germany. Germany had the largest generics market growing at 13% in Europe which had the 2nd biggest market after US. So through this acquisition DRL could get immediate access to the German generic market. DRL had realized that organic growth was not enough to become a global mid-sized pharmaceutical player, so through this acquisition DRL expected that it would gain a strategic presence in the European market owing to the high growth of the market and rising public healthcare costs. It is also to be seen that DRL wanted to grow in size and realize its ambition of becoming a US$1 billion mid-size global pharmaceutical company by 2008. DRL's product development skills and low cost manufacturing would benefit betapharm as it would be able to add more products to its portfolio and grow at a much faster rate in Germany. On the other hand, Betapharm (EBITDA margins of around 24%) had intellectual property IP and regulatory infrastructure giving it faster access to European market. DRL was itself recovering from financial challenges. So any failure here would daunt the recovery process, thus care needed to be taken.
Identification of Problems
DRL was just recovering from financial challenges, so failure would dent the recovery. Dr. Reddy had a history of proactive legal component characterized by challenging patents in various courts. Though it had experiences of 4 acquisitions earlier but this would be the biggest, hence the execution risks would be much higher. There was difference in corporate culture. Betapharm was a process driven company given to compliance with systems, procedures and protocol as compared to the relationship-driven Dr Reddy. Hence integrating the two businesses would be a key factor in driving synergies. Underestimation of cultural differences can create a bias which if not taken care of would yield problems; substantially bring down the performance and synergies. Discounts mandated in the European market as more and more generic drugs were coming, so there was a pricing pressure to be seen on generics manufacturers. This implies lower sales realizations. Hence a longer time frame to digest the acquisition. As Betapharm was already into exclusive contracts implies that post acquisition, the task of consolidation of manufacturing would not be easy for Dr. Reddy. Planning should be thorough devoid of any planning fallacy so that proper forecasts are there to estimate time and money needed for integration.
WACC Calculation Debt/(Debt+Equity) Cost of debt Marginal tax rate Beta Risk Free Rate (30 yr Bonds) Market Risk Premium (Geometric) Equity/(Debt+Equity) Cost of equity
Equity Beta D/E 0.85 0.96 0.65 0.09 0.8 0.64 1.1 0.72 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.01 0.85 0.19 Average Beta Equity Beta for Yeats
Asset Beta 0.54 0.62 0.58 0.77 0.54 0.65 0.76 0.64
0.64
Historical 1999 Total Revenue % growth rate Net Income % of revenue D&A % of revenue CapEx % of revenue Change in WC % of revenue Free Cash Flow % of revenue Year Present Value Factor PV of Free Cash Flow
49364
n/a
2000
59600
20.7%
2001
66000
10.7%
Stable
92700
3.0%
81200
10.9%
90000
10.8%
5575
11.3%
8347
14.0%
8634
13.1%
9792
13.4%
11106
13.7%
12576
14.0%
12953
14.0%
1508
3.1%
1660
2.8%
1828
2.8%
2012
2.7%
2212
2.7%
2432
2.7%
2503
2.7%
2433
4.9%
1826
3.1%
2011
3.0%
2213
3.0%
2433
3.0%
2675
3.0%
2781
3.0%
0
0.0%
3492
0.6%
3867
5.9%
4289
5.9%
4757
5.9%
5273
5.9%
5431
5.9%
4650
9.4%
4689
7.9%
4584
6.9%
5302
7.2%
6128
7.5%
7060
7.8%
7244
7.8%
1 0.913 4283
2 0.834 3825
3 0.762 4041
4 0.696 4266
5 0.636 4489
5 0.636 71095
9.5% 3.0%
Using DCF the share price of YVC has come out to be $ 63.89, which is way above the present share price of $39.75. Hence the share of YVC are undervalued as of now as per DCF. TSE International
WACC Calculation Marginal tax rate Beta Risk Free Rate (30 yr Bonds) Market Risk Premium (Geometric) Equity/(Debt+Equity) Cost of equity 40.0% 0.70 5.98% 9.6% 100% 12.7%
Equity Beta D/E 0.85 0.96 0.65 0.09 0.8 0.64 1.1 0.72 0.75 0.64 0.65 0.01 0.85 0.19 Average Beta Equity Beta for Yeats
Asset Beta 0.54 0.62 0.58 0.77 0.54 0.65 0.76 0.64
0.70
Historical 1999 Total Revenue % growth rate Net Income % of revenue D&A % of revenue CapEx % of revenue Change in WC % of revenue Free Cash Flow % of revenue Year Present Value Factor PV of Free Cash Flow
2187208
n/a
2000
2329373
6.5%
2004
6.5%
Stable
3086558
3.0%
2642037
6.5%
2813769
6.5%
2996658 230143
7.7%
164041
7.5%
176101
7.6%
189036
7.6%
201323
7.6%
216097
7.7%
431295
14.0%
26800
1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
27950
1.2% 0.0% 0.6%
29770
1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
31700
1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
33170
1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
35960
1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
83337
2.7% 3.0% 5.9%
190841
8.7%
204051
8.8%
218806
8.8%
233023
8.8%
249267
8.9%
266103
8.9%
514632
16.7%
1 0.887 181057
2 0.787 172271
3 0.699 162790
4 0.620 154514
5 0.550 146363
5 0.550 2918136
12.7% 3.0%
The share price of TSE international is also way higher than the current share price of $21.98, hence she shares of TSE are also undervalued as of now. There are certain weaknesses of DCF valuation a) b) c) d) Focuses on long term values Unusual opportunities are missed The model is dependent on the correctness of the input variables Valuations using DCF are sensitive to the assumptions of perpetuity growth rates and discount rates.
P/E Ratio
Company Cascade Corp. Curtiss Wright Flowserve Idex Roper Tecumseh Thomas Watts Average P/E Median P/E Earnings Share Price (Avg) Share Price (Med) P/E 8.2 10.3 11 14.6 16.3 7 10.7 10.4 11.0625 10.55 3.87 42.81188 40.8285
7633 3065
27.6%
19.0%
14.9%
We can clearly see that Betapharm would add value to Dr Reddys as its financials are in the right place, it was the 4th largest Generic drug manufacturer in Germany and it had strong growth potential. It was the manufacturer of choice for the long-term treatment drugs and based on its growth potential as well as relative position in Germany we recommend that Dr Reddys should purchase BetaPharm.