19 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:

An Application of Z-Score Model

2013 IUP. All Rights Reserved.
A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency
of Indian Commercial Banks:
An Application of Z-Score Model
Ranjan Aneja* and Anita Makkar**
The present study addresses the problem of book value insolvency by analyzing 47 Indian commercial
banks (26 public sector and 21 private sector banks) over the period of 2006-07 to 2010-11. Book
value insolvency score of banks is calculated using the Z-statistic, and further, the Z-statistic scores
of public and private sector banks are compared. The study also analyzes selected internal
determinants of book value insolvency. The results reveal that bank size is a major determinant that
significantly affects the solvency of Indian commercial banks. On the other hand, it is found that
increase in non-performing assets leads to high insolvency risk in Indian banks. The study concludes
that public sector banks have efficient risk management and are safer than private sector banks.
Introduction
The recent financial crisis experience has raised many questions on the real origin of the
relentless and increasing vulnerability of the financial institutions not only in the US, but
also all over the world. The banks are often at the center of a financial crisis due to the frail
capital structure of banks to provide liquidity to both borrowers and lenders (Diamond and
Rajan, 2001). The recent global crisis has demonstrated the importance of banks both at
national and international levels. In the developing countries, the substance of banks is
increasing continuously as banks are the major source of finance for a majority of firms and
the main depository to encourage people for saving in these nations.
In India also, banks are the major financial intermediaries as they are playing a foremost
role in the economic development of the country. Indian banks have performed sound
during the recent financial turmoil, as is evident from the annual credit growth,
profitability and trends in Non-Performing Assets (NPA) of the banks. This consistent
performance of Indian banks has been achieved through the efforts of Reserve Bank of
India (RBI). Indian banking system has grown through many significant changes during
the post-reform period. Deregulation of interest rates, provisioning and capital adequacy,
emergence of new private sector banks, and increasing use of technology have changed
the whole picture of Indian banks.
* Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan, Kishangarh, India.
E-mail: ranjananeja@curaj.ac.in
** Junior Research Fellow (UGC), Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science &
Technology, Hisar, Haryana, India; and is the corresponding author. E-mail: anita29561@gmail.com
20 The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. X, No. 2, 2013
However, the challenges of banks have also been increasing continuously during the
post-reform era. Now, banks are constrained to encounter various types of risks like credit
risk, liquidity risk, market risk, interest rate risk, and insolvency risk. Handling of such risks
in efficient and integrated manner is essential for maintaining the resonant financial health.
Failure in managing these risks efficiently affects the financial stability of a bank, which leads
to the probability of insolvency of the bank. However, Indian banks are in a strong position
and there is lesser probability of them getting exposed to book value insolvency. But still
there are some instances where banks had gone to the threshold of the insolvency. One of
that is the case of Global Trust Bank. Global Trust Bank, one of the new generation banks,
started its operations in 1994 and began showing adverse growth in 2002. The bank became
sick with huge bad debts in 2004. Such increasing importance of risk management prompted
the present study. Therefore, the present study is an attempt to analyze the book value
insolvency of Indian commercial banks. The paper is organized as follows: it scans the relevant
literature relating to the banking sector, and then outlines the objectives and methodology
adapted to analyze the issue at hand. Subsequently, it discusses the results, and finally, reports
the conclusion.
Literature Review
Numerous studies have been conducted in the area of risk management of the banking
industry. Saunders et al. (1990) analyzed the relationship between bank ownership structure
and risk-taking of the banks. They found that banks owned by stockholders had incentives
to take higher risk than managerially-owned banks. Odesanmi and Wolfe (2007)
investigated the impact of revenue diversification activities of the banks on banks
insolvency. A panel set data of 322 listed banks of 22 countries was used for the period
1995-2006. They found that the revenue diversification activities relating to interest income
and non-interest income-generating activities reduced the insolvency risk. Laeven and
Levine (2009) concluded that banks in countries with stronger shareholder rights tend to
take more risk, because the owners are in a stronger position and they have more ability to
enforce their views of risk on management. Rahman et al. (2009) investigated the impact of
lending structure on the insolvency risk exposure of the conventional and Islamic banks.
They found that real estate lending was positively related to conventional banks risk
exposure, while negatively related to Islamic banks risk exposure. Sinha et al. (2010)
evaluated the riskiness and book value insolvency of 15 Indian commercial banks for the
period of 2006-2008 using Z-score model. They found that probability of book value
insolvency of Indian banks had reduced during the study period.
Yap et al. (2010) identified the factors affecting the risk exposure of the Malaysian banks.
They concluded that liquidity, interest rate, business operations and credit risk were the key
factors that significantly contributed to banks risk exposure in Malaysia. Maji et al. (2011)
compared the insolvency risk of 56 Indian commercial banks for the period 2001-2010. They
found that bank size was the most significant factor influencing the insolvency risk. Reumers
(2011) analyzed the risk-taking capacity and corporate governance of 308 banks in 44 countries
21 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:
An Application of Z-Score Model
over the period of three years from 2006 to 2008. He found that stronger shareholders rights
were negatively related to bankruptcy risk, while creditors rights were positively related to
bankruptcy risk.
On the basis of the above discussion, it is identified that not many studies were undertaken
to measure the book value insolvency, especially in the context of Indian commercial banks.
There is a dire need for comparative studies to analyze and compare the book value insolvency
in Indian banking sector. Further, not many attempts have been made to identify the factors
affecting the book value insolvency of the Indian commercial banks. Thus, there exists a
literature gap in this area. The present study attempts to fill this gap.
Objectives
To analyze the book value insolvency of the Indian commercial banks.
To identify the key factors influencing the book value insolvency of Indian
commercial banks.
To compare the book value insolvency of the public and private sector banks of
India.
Methodology
The study is analytical in nature and is based on the secondary data. The data was collected
from the annual reports of the commercial banks and RBI publications. A sample of 47
Indian commercial banks, including 26 public sector banks and 21 private sector banks,
was selected for the study for the period 2006-07 to 2010-11. Various internal and external
factors affect the solvency of a bank. In the present study, some of the internal factors are
taken into consideration to identify the key determinants of the book value insolvency.
Capital adequacy, non-performing loans, size of the bank, liquidity and net interest margins
are used to identify the determinant factors relating to bank insolvency risk. Z-statistic
(Hannan and Hanweck, 1988) is used to measure the insolvency risk of the banks. Least
square regression model is fitted to examine the impact of the above variables on the
insolvency risk.
Hypotheses
On the basis of the objectives of the study, the following hypotheses are outlined:
H
0
: There is no significant difference in the book value insolvency of public and private sector
banks of India.
H
1
: There is a significant difference in the book value insolvency of public and private sector
banks of India.
Z-Statistic: Measure of Insolvency Risk
Z-statistic uses the data on the banks expected profits, the likelihood of these profits
to be realized, and the banks capital base. The Z-statistic captures the likelihood of
22 The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. X, No. 2, 2013
bank earnings in a given year becoming low enough to exhaust the banks capital base
and thus the likelihood of the bank becoming insolvent (Sinha et al., 2010). The
Z-statistic is defined as:

ROA of SD
Ratio Assets to Capital
ROA Assets on turn Re Z ) (
where
Assets Total of Average
Income Net
ROA
Assets Total
Equity
Ratio Asset to Capital
Higher value of Z-statistic indicates lower insolvency risk, because higher values of Z
correspond to higher level of equity relative to a potential shock to the earnings of a bank.
Thus, banks with risky loan portfolios can maintain a low risk of insolvency as long as they
are adequately capitalized. Conversely, more volatility in the ROA would lead to a lower
Z-statistic and a higher risk of bankruptcy. Thus, probability of book value insolvency (P)
that is inversely associated with Z-statistic is computed as:
2
2 / 1 Z P
Results and Discussion
The results of Z-statistic are shown in Tables 1 and 2. Perusal of the table reveals that on an
average ROA of private sector banks is higher in comparison to public sector banks during
the study period. Average of Capital to Asset (CAP) ratio is also high in the case of private
sector banks during 2006-07 to 2010-11. But Z-statistic of public sector banks is much
greater than that of private sector banks. This is due to the difference in the variability of
ROA as measured by the standard deviation of ROA. Standard Deviation of ROA [ (ROA)]
is only 0.00245 in the case of public sector banks, while it is very high (0.00478) in the case
of private sector banks during the study period. The significant difference in the variability of
ROA leads to lower Z-statistic of the private sector banks despite higher ROA and CAP.
Z-value in the case of public sector banks was 26.08 in the year 2006-07, but it declined to
19.44 in the year 2008-09. This decline is mainly due to the impact of global financial crisis
as banking operations of the public sector banks were affected due to the global economic
meltdown. But in the year 2009-10, the value of Z-statistic increased to 19.50 and further to
21.13 in the year 2010-11. Z-value of private sector banks was 19.75 in 2006-07 and increased
to 22.98 in the year 2007-08. But it started declining drastically and reached 15.29 and 13.68
in the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively. This decline clearly depicts the impact of the
global recession on the operations of the private sector banks. As major private sector banks
of India have large foreign investments and operate at international level, they are much
23 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:
An Application of Z-Score Model
affected by the economic meltdown. After that period, private sector banks improved their
position, as Z-score increased to 20.48 in the year 2010-11.
Overall, public sector banks were in a better position as compared to the private sector
banks. Public sector banks had a higher Z-statistic in comparison to private sector banks
over the entire study period, except the year 2007-08. This indicates that public sector banks
are safer than private sector banks, as the probability of book value insolvency is much lower
in the public sector banks. However for a broader picture, ROA, CAP ratio, standard deviation
of ROA and Z-statistic of 47 Indian commercial banks have also been calculated; ranks have
been assigned to each bank, as shown in the Appendix.
Table 3 reveals that the State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur stood first with the highest
Z-score (158.66) in the ranking of 47 Indian commercial banks. Out of the top five banks, the
first three are public sector banks, while the remaining two are private sector banks. This
clearly indicates that public sector banks performed extremely well in managing their sound
financial health. On the other hand, the five banks at the bottom of the list of 47 banks with
lowest Z-score include three private sector banks. Performance of Development Credit Bank,
Indusind Bank and Dhan Laxmi Bank is very poor in maintaining their financial strength.
Development Credit Bank stood at 47
th
place with the lowest Z-score (8.56). This lowest
score of Development Credit Bank is mainly due to its negative ROA. It is further observed
that 41 banks have Z-score higher than 21.22 and only six banks have a Z-score below 21.22
(Z-score of 21.22 is given by Jorden (1998) in his study of New England Banks). Overall,
Indian banks are in a strong position in terms of their risk management.
(ROA) 0.00950 0.01008 0.00984 0.00978 0.00976 0.00979
(CAP) 0.05475 0.05310 0.05263 0.05174 0.05518 0.05348
(ROA) 0.00246 0.00281 0.00321 0.00315 0.00280 0.00245
Z-Statistic 26.08000 22.43000 19.44000 19.50000 23.13000 25.76300
P Value 0.00073 0.00099 0.00132 0.00131 0.00093 0.00753
Table 1: Z-Statistic and Probability of Book Value Insolvency
of Public Sector Banks (2006-07 to 2010-11)
Particulars 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Average (2006-11)
(ROA) 0.00967 0.01145 0.01115 0.01016 0.01145 0.01078
(CAP) 0.07692 0.09024 0.08976 0.09205 0.09950 0.08970
(ROA) 0.00438 0.00442 0.00659 0.00747 0.00540 0.00478
Z-Statistic 19.75000 22.98000 15.29000 13.68000 20.48000 21.01000
P Value 0.00128 0.00094 0.00213 0.00267 0.00119 0.00113
Table 2: Z-Statistic and Probability of Book Value Insolvency
of Private Sector Banks (2006-07 to 2010-11)
Particulars 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Average (2006-11)
24 The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. X, No. 2, 2013
Determinants of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks
There are several internal and external factors affecting the risk management of the banks.
Some of the factors have positive effect, while others have negative effect on the performance
of banks. In the present study, five internal factors (capital adequacy, non-performing loans,
liquidity, size of the bank, and net interest margin) have been selected to identify their
impact on the book value insolvency of the Indian commercial banks. For the purpose,
multiple regression analysis has been applied.
Z = +
1
CAR
2
NPL +
3
lnTA +
4
LQ +
5
NIM +
where
Dependent Variable
Z = Safety Index of Book Value Insolvency
Independent Variables
CAR = Capital Adequacy Ratio
NPL = Ratio of Non-Performing Loans to Advances
lnTA = Natural Log of Total Assets (Bank Size)
LQ = Ratio of Liquid Assets to Total Assets
NIM = Net Interest Margin
High Z-statistic indicates low book value insolvency exposure of the bank. Thus,
Z-statistic is used as a safety index from insolvency risk. The results reveal that the liquidity
(LQ) variable is highly correlated to all other variables. To avoid multicollinearity problem,
liquidity is excluded from the regression model. Table 4 presents the results of multiple
regression analysis. Significance of the variables is checked at 5% level. Association between
the independent variables and insolvency risk is reverse of the signs mentioned in the table,
as these are measures of Z-statistic.
1 State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur 158.66 43 Bank of India 18.68
2 Corporation Bank 142.70 44 Indian Overseas Bank 16.98
3 State Bank of Patiala 133.83 45 Dhan Laxmi Bank 15.72
4 City Union Bank 128.96 46 Indusind Bank 14.42
5 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank 121.70 47 Development Credit Bank 08.56
Table 3: List of Top Five and Bottom Five Banks with Regard to Z-Statistic
(2006-07 to 2010-11)
Bottom Five Banks with Lowest Z-Statistic Top Five Banks with Highest Z-Statistic
Rank Name of Bank
Z-
Statistic
Name of Bank
Z-
Statistic
Rank
25 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:
An Application of Z-Score Model
CAR 0.148 0.678 0.629 6.355* 1.571 2.903
ln TA 0.795 3.719* 1.914
NPL 0.013 0.077 1.849
NIM 0.064 0.239 1.079
60.615
Table 4: Results of Regression Analysis Determinants of Insolvency Risk
of Indian Commercial Banks
Variable
Beta
Coefficient
t-Statistic R
2
F-Statistic D-W Statistic VIF
The results show that bank size (log of total assets) is significantly, positively associated
with Z-statistic. Thus, bank size is inversely related to book value insolvency. Banks with
large assets face lower insolvency risk as large assets indicate higher risk-taking ability of the
banks as they have sufficient assets to pay their liabilities and thus it reduces the chances of
book value insolvency. Capital adequacy is inversely related to book value insolvency. Adequate
capital base ensures the capability of a bank in meeting the unexpected losses that can push
them towards insolvency. All the Indian commercial banks maintain capital adequacy above
9% as prescribed by RBI. It is a good indicator of financial soundness of Indian commercial
banks. High level of NPA has an adverse effect on the overall performance of the banks. NPA
management has received critical attention after the financial sector reforms. The results
reveal an inverse association between NPL and Z-statistic. Therefore, book value insolvency
is positively associated with NPA. The higher the NPA level, the higher are the chances of a
bank becoming insolvent. NIM is inversely related to insolvency risk. Net interest margin
shows efficiency of the bank in earning its income and also enhances its revenue generation
capacity. Large net interest margin shows the capacity of the bank to meet its expenses as and
when these occur, thus securing a safe position for the bank from book value insolvency.
Significant F-statistic reveals that capital adequacy, non-performing assets, bank size and
net interest margin clearly explain the variation in book value insolvency. R
2
= 0.629 is also
quite satisfactory in representing the goodness-of-fit of the regression model to the data to
identify the major determinants of book value insolvency in Indian commercial banks.
Multicollinearity is measured through Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Low VIF values reveal
very low multicollinearity problem among the variables used in the study. Durbin-Watson
test shows the dependability of the results. Further, t-test has been applied to compare the
book value insolvency of public and private sector banks of India.
The results of t-test (Table 5) reveal that there is a significant difference in the book value
insolvency of public and private sector banks of India. Thus, the null hypothesis that there is
no significant difference in the book value insolvency of public and private sector banks in
India is rejected, and the alternate hypothesis is accepted. The mean of book value insolvency
score of public sector banks (19.15) is more than that of the private sector banks (13.94).
The standard deviation of book value insolvency is higher in private sector banks in
26 The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. X, No. 2, 2013
Variable Groups No. Mean SD t-Value Sig.
Book Value Insolvency Public 26 19.15 3.712 2.32* 0.032
Private 21 13.94 6.061
Table 5: Comparison of Book Value Insolvency of Public
and Private Sector Banks
comparison to public sector banks. This shows that the fluctuation in the risk management
is more in the case of the private sector banks.
Conclusion
The study concludes that the chances of book value insolvency are less in the public sector
banks in comparison to private sector banks. The results reveal a negative association of
capital adequacy and net interest margin with insolvency risk, which is a good indication of
the financial health of the Indian banks. Reduction in non-performing assets and increase in
capital adequacy indicate the soundness of the Indian commercial banks. The study suggests
that in addition to following the instructions of RBI, the commercial banks should also
maintain their solvency position so that insolvency risk can be minimized. The banks should
also maintain adequate capital to absorb unexpected losses efficiently and also to stabilize
ROA to stop the fluctuation in their earnings.
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27 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:

An Application of Z-Score Model
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28 The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. X, No. 2, 2013
S. No. Name of Bank ROA CAP SD of ROA Z-Stat. Rank
Appendix
Table A1: Average Z-Statistic of Indian Commercial Banks
(2006-07 to 2010-11)
1. State Bank of India 0.0090 0.0598 0.0013 51.3497 19
2. State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur 0.0091 0.0465 0.0004 158.658 1
3. State Bank of Hyderabad 0.0106 0.0471 0.0012 47.4934 23
4. State Bank of Mysore 0.0104 0.0540 0.0008 85.7117 10
5. State Bank of Patiala 0.0082 0.0486 0.0004 133.832 3
6. State Bank of Travancore 0.0110 0.0447 0.0023 24.2109 41
7. Allahabad Bank 0.0115 0.0602 0.0016 44.1831 24
8. Andhra Bank 0.0126 0.0571 0.0013 53.3636 16
9. Bank of Baroda 0.0105 0.0582 0.0024 28.0514 37
10. Bank of India 0.0102 0.0523 0.0033 18.6775 43
11. Bank of Maharashtra 0.0068 0.0433 0.0012 41.8173 27
12. Canara Bank 0.0114 0.0582 0.0021 32.4212 34
13. Central Bank of India 0.0059 0.0452 0.0010 51.2039 20
14. Corporation Bank 0.0124 0.0585 0.0005 142.703 2
15. Dena Bank 0.0096 0.0472 0.0014 40.0790 29
16. IDBI Bank 0.0064 0.0606 0.0007 89.7744 9
17. Indian Bank 0.0158 0.0772 0.0009 107.272 6
18. Indian Overseas Bank 0.0101 0.0530 0.0037 16.9841 44
19. Oriental Bank of Commerce 0.0101 0.0668 0.0013 59.2269 15
20. Punjab and Sind Bank 0.0114 0.0572 0.0023 29.2792 36
21. Punjab National Bank 0.0127 0.0604 0.0017 42.1794 26
22. Syndicate Bank 0.0080 0.0409 0.0011 42.6600 25
23. UCO Bank 0.0062 0.0374 0.0016 27.9337 38
24. Union Bank of India 0.0115 0.0543 0.0016 41.7540 28
25. United Bank of India 0.0057 0.0524 0.0017 34.5850 32
29 A Comparative Study of Book Value Insolvency of Indian Commercial Banks:
An Application of Z-Score Model
S. No. Name of Bank ROA CAP SD of ROA Z-Stat. Rank
Appendix (Cont.)
26. Vijaya Bank 0.0075 0.0495 0.0012 48.3810 22
27. Axis Bank 0.0143 0.0760 0.0026 35.0523 31
28. Catholic Syrian Bank 0.0035 0.0512 0.0027 20.4373 42
29. City Union Bank 0.0157 0.0715 0.0007 128.963 4
30. Development Credit Bank 0.0021 0.0861 0.0098 8.56030 47
31. Dhan Laxmi Bank 0.0061 0.0549 0.0039 15.7169 45
32. Federal Bank 0.0134 0.0997 0.0012 94.5228 8
33. HDFC Bank 0.0141 0.0850 0.0014 72.5188 13
34. ICICI Bank 0.0113 0.1196 0.0013 97.2225 7
35. Indusind Bank 0.0077 0.0651 0.0050 14.4213 46
36. ING Vysya Bank 0.0073 0.0614 0.0014 49.9502 21
37. Jammu & Kashmir Bank 0.0111 0.0702 0.0010 78.0163 12
38. Karnataka Bank 0.0103 0.0721 0.0032 25.9449 40
39. Karur Vysya Bank 0.0162 0.0813 0.0011 84.9218 11
40. Kotak Mahindra Bank 0.0131 0.1204 0.0040 33.4068 33
41. Laxmi Vilas Bank 0.0054 0.0648 0.0026 26.9798 39
42. Nanital Bank 0.0155 0.0794 0.0018 52.3358 17
43. Ratnakar Bank 0.0103 0.2195 0.0065 35.1320 30
44. SBI Comm. and Int. Bank 0.0114 0.1794 0.0060 31.6689 35
45. South Indian Bank 0.0100 0.0599 0.0014 51.6539 18
46. Tamilnad Mercantile Bank 0.0159 0.0928 0.0009 121.701 5
47. Yes Bank 0.0159 0.0737 0.0013 70.2098 14
Reference # 37J-2013-06-02-01